scholarly journals A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-203
Author(s):  
Sjoukje Philip ◽  
Sarah Kew ◽  
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh ◽  
Friederike Otto ◽  
Robert Vautard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Future Event ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
The World ◽  
One Step ◽  
Sizeable Fraction ◽  
Event Definition

Abstract. Over the last few years, methods have been developed to answer questions on the effect of global warming on recent extreme events. Many “event attribution” studies have now been performed, a sizeable fraction even within a few weeks of the event, to increase the usefulness of the results. In doing these analyses, it has become apparent that the attribution itself is only one step of an extended process that leads from the observation of an extreme event to a successfully communicated attribution statement. In this paper we detail the protocol that was developed by the World Weather Attribution group over the course of the last 4 years and about two dozen rapid and slow attribution studies covering warm, cold, wet, dry, and stormy extremes. It starts from the choice of which events to analyse and proceeds with the event definition, observational analysis, model evaluation, multi-model multi-method attribution, hazard synthesis, vulnerability and exposure analysis and ends with the communication procedures. This article documents this protocol. It is hoped that our protocol will be useful in designing future event attribution studies and as a starting point of a protocol for an operational attribution service.

scholarly journals Can the Issuance of Hazardous-Weather Warnings Inform the Attribution of Extreme Events to Climate Change?

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (8) ◽  
pp. E1452-E1463
Author(s):  
Dale R. Durran
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
Hazardous Weather

Abstract When extreme weather occurs, the question often arises whether the event was produced by climate change. Two types of errors are possible when attempting to answer this question. One type of error is underestimating the role of climate change, thereby failing to properly alert the public and appropriately stimulate efforts at adaptation and mitigation. The second type of error is overestimating the role of climate change, thereby elevating climate anxiety and potentially derailing important public discussions with false alarms. Long before societal concerns about global warming became widespread, meteorologists were addressing essentially the same trade-off when faced with a binary decision of whether to issue a warning for hazardous weather. Here we review forecast–verification statistics such as the probability of detection (POD) and the false alarm ratio (FAR) for hazardous-weather warnings and examine their potential application to extreme-event attribution in connection with climate change. Empirical and theoretical evidence suggests that adjusting tornado-warning thresholds in an attempt to reduce FAR produces even larger reductions in POD. Similar tradeoffs between improving FAR and degrading POD are shown to apply using a rubric for the attribution of extreme high temperatures to climate change. Although there are obviously significant differences between the issuance of hazardous-weather warnings and the attribution of extreme events to global warming, the experiences of the weather forecasting community can provide qualitative guidance for those attempting to set practical thresholds for extreme-event attribution in a changing climate.

scholarly journals Verification of extreme event attribution: Using out-of-sample observations to assess changes in probabilities of unprecedented events

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. eaay2368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Anthropogenic Influence ◽  
Independent Verification ◽  
Event Attribution ◽  
Verification Period ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Climate Events

Independent verification of anthropogenic influence on specific extreme climate events remains elusive. This study presents a framework for such verification. This framework reveals that previously published results based on a 1961–2005 attribution period frequently underestimate the influence of global warming on the probability of unprecedented extremes during the 2006–2017 period. This underestimation is particularly pronounced for hot and wet events, with greater uncertainty for dry events. The underestimation is reflected in discrepancies between probabilities predicted during the attribution period and frequencies observed during the out-of-sample verification period. These discrepancies are most explained by increases in climate forcing between the attribution and verification periods, suggesting that 21st-century global warming has substantially increased the probability of unprecedented hot and wet events. Hence, the use of temporally lagged periods for attribution—and, more broadly, for extreme event probability quantification—can cause underestimation of historical impacts, and current and future risks.

Dreams Give Birth to Reality”. Engraving Austroseraphicum Coelum as an Attempt to Create a New Reality by the Spanish Habsburgs Dynastic Propaganda / Sny rodzą rzeczywistość…”. Grafika Austroseraphicum Coelum jako próba kreowania nowej rzeczywistości za pomocą propagandy dynastycznej Habsburgów hiszpańskich

2014 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Kurowiak
Keyword(s):  
Seventeenth Century ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
General Condition ◽  
Symbolic System ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Mission Of God ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The World ◽  
The Church

AbstractAs a work of propaganda, graphics Austroseraphicum Coelum Paulus Pontius should create a new reality, make appearances. The main impression while seeing the graphics is the admiration for the power of Habsburgs, which interacts with the power of the Mother of God. She, in turn, refers the viewer to God, as well as Franciscans placed on the graphic, they become a symbol of the Church. This is a starting point for further interpretation of the drawing. By the presence of certain characters, allegories, symbols, we can see references to a particular political situation in the Netherlands - the war with the northern provinces of Spain. The message of the graphic is: the Spanish Habsburgs, commissioned by the mission of God, they are able to fight all of the enemies, especially Protestants, with the help of Immaculate and the Franciscans. The main aim of the graphic is to convince the viewer that this will happen and to create in his mind a vision of the new reality. But Spain was in the seventeenth century nothing but a shadow of former itself (in the time of Philip IV the general condition of Spain get worse). That was the reason why they wanted to hold the belief that the empire continues unwavering. The form of this work (graphics), also allowed to export them around the world, and the ambiguity of the symbolic system, its contents relate to different contexts, and as a result, the Habsburgs, not only Spanish, they could promote their strength everywhere. Therefore it was used very well as a single work of propaganda, as well as a part of a broader campaign

Global warming influences dynamics of plague’s epidemic manifestations in XX-XXI centuries

2017 ◽  
pp. 38-40
Author(s):  
E.S. Zenkevich ◽  
N.V. Popov
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Modern Trend ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
The World ◽  
Low Incidence ◽  
High Level

During the second half of 20th century, a high level of plague incidence in the world was in 1960–1979 and 1990–2009. The significant decrease of infection cases was in 1950–1959, 1980–1989, 2010–2015. It is noticed, that the observed cyclical nature of the alternation of high and low incidence plague’s periods, in many respects related to modern trend of climate fluctuations.

The Paradox of “A High Standard of Public Honesty”

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Kennedy ◽  
Ronald Kroeze
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Early Modern ◽  
Side Effect ◽  
High Standard ◽  
Dutch Republic ◽  
Liberal Politics ◽  
Patronage Politics ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The World ◽  
Late Nineteenth

This chapter takes as its starting point the contemporary idea that the Netherlands is one of the least corrupt countries in the world; an idea that it dates back to the late-nineteenth and early-twentieth centuries. In this chapter, the authors explain how corruption was controlled in the Netherlands against the background of the rise and fall of the Dutch Republic, modern statebuilding and liberal politics. However, the Dutch case also presents some complexities: first, the decrease in some forms of corruption was due not to early democratization or bureaucratization, but was rather a side-effect of elite patronage-politics; second, although some early modern forms of corruption disappeared around this period, new forms have emerged in more recent times.

Vietnam in the Indo-Pacific Region: Perception, Position and Perspectives

2021 ◽  
pp. 097492842110050
Author(s):  
Nguyen Le Thy Thuong ◽  
Nguyen Thi Oanh
Keyword(s):  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Geographic Area ◽  
Common Interest ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Common Space ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The World ◽  
State Behaviour ◽  
Asian Pacific

The Indo-Pacific region is an area adjacent to some oceans and the gateway that connects the great power and small countries to the world; this region is always considered by Vietnam as a key strategic geographic area, having direct impacts on national security, position and its role in this region. While big powers have different perceptions to the Indo-Pacific region, as a country occupying an important geographic position in the Pacific region, Vietnam shares a common vision of an open and rule-based area, and a common interest in maintaining peace, stability and prosperity as well as building a common space for coexistence and development with the belief that the Indo-Asian-Pacific is large enough for every nation to grow and prosper. This article finds out that recent changes in the Indo-Pacific region in geopolitics, economics, security and national defence have made many countries, including Vietnam, to redefine their global and regional policies to refresh their strategic perceptions. Vietnam has its own perception, position, approach and national orientations, which is shaping its state behaviour and perspectives in this geopolitical vibrant Indo-Pacific region. Besides, this article uses the SWOT analysis model to determine the challenges, strengths and weaknesses of Vietnam in the Indo-Pacific region. Moreover, while the future of the Indo-Pacific in a post-COVID-19 pandemic world remains filled with uncertainty and economic challenges, the crisis also presents an opportunity for Vietnam to re-evaluate its position. Today, Vietnam always maintains its foreign policy of independence, self-reliance, multilateralism and diversification of international relations, which attaches great importance to enhancing multi-faceted cooperation with countries in the Indo-Pacific region. Thus, with its own perception and geostrategic advantage, Vietnam—a developing country in the region and in the world with relatively stable economic growth, pursuing rules and order will be a positive factor for a stable, peaceful and prosperous development in the region.

Psalm 104: The Panorama of Life

2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-14
Author(s):  
Robert Gnuse
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Ecological Crisis ◽  
Biblical Text ◽  
Modern Age ◽  
The World ◽  
Formal Presentation ◽  
Genesis 1 ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Insight Into

Psalm 104 is a majestic hymn to creation, a dynamic corollary to the more formal presentation of the creation of the world in Genesis 1. Reflection upon some of the passages provides us with insight into the biblical author’s appreciation for nature, an attitude that needs to inspire us in this age of ecological crisis. Though the biblical text is unaware of such an ecological crisis; nonetheless, passages shine forth that can speak to us in our modern age of global warming and environmental collapse.

scholarly journals Urban Thermal Risk

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 466
Author(s):  
Dimitra Founda
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
World Meteorological Organization ◽  
The World ◽  
Thermal Risk

Global warming is accelerating and according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the decade from 2011 to 2020 was the warmest recorded decade ever [...]

scholarly journals A Comparison between One-Step and Two-Step Nesting Strategy in the Dynamical Downscaling of Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM at 2.2 km Driven by ERA5 Reanalysis

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 260
Author(s):  
Mario Raffa ◽  
Alfredo Reder ◽  
Marianna Adinolfi ◽  
Paola Mercogliano
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Medium Range Weather Forecast ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
One Step

Recently, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) has released a new generation of reanalysis, acknowledged as ERA5, representing at the present the most plausible picture for the current climate. Although ERA5 enhancements, in some cases, its coarse spatial resolution (~31 km) could still discourage a direct use of precipitation fields. Such a gap could be faced dynamically downscaling ERA5 at convection permitting scale (resolution < 4 km). On this regard, the selection of the most appropriate nesting strategy (direct one-step against nested two-step) represents a pivotal issue for saving time and computational resources. Two questions may be raised within this context: (i) may the dynamical downscaling of ERA5 accurately represents past precipitation patterns? and (ii) at what extent may the direct nesting strategy performances be adequately for this scope? This work addresses these questions evaluating two ERA5-driven experiments at ~2.2 km grid spacing over part of the central Europe, run using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM with different nesting strategies, for the period 2007–2011. Precipitation data are analysed at different temporal and spatial scales with respect to gridded observational datasets (i.e., E-OBS and RADKLIM-RW) and existing reanalysis products (i.e., ERA5-Land and UERRA). The present work demonstrates that the one-step experiment tendentially outperforms the two-step one when there is no spectral nudging, providing results at different spatial and temporal scales in line with the other existing reanalysis products. However, the results can be highly model and event dependent as some different aspects might need to be considered (i.e., the nesting strategies) during the configuration phase of the climate experiments. For this reason, a clear and consolidated recommendation on this topic cannot be stated. Such a level of confidence could be achieved in future works by increasing the number of cities and events analysed. Nevertheless, these promising results represent a starting point for the optimal experimental configuration assessment, in the frame of future climate studies.

scholarly journals Business Days Time Series Weekly Trend and Seasonality

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
Karlis Gutans
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Adjustment Method ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rates ◽  
Time Series Decomposition ◽  
The World

The world changes at incredible speed. Global warming and enormous money printing are two examples, which do not affect every one of us equally. “Where and when to spend the vacation?”; “In what currency to store the money?” are just a few questions that might get asked more frequently. Knowledge gained from freely available temperature data and currency exchange rates can provide better advice. Classical time series decomposition discovers trend and seasonality patterns in data. I propose to visualize trend and seasonality data in one chart. Furthermore, I developed a calendar adjustment method to obtain weekly trend and seasonality data and display them in the chart.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document