scholarly journals How seasonal forecast could help a decision maker: an example of climate service for water resource management

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 51-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Viel ◽  
Anne-Lise Beaulant ◽  
Jean-Michel Soubeyroux ◽  
Jean-Pierre Céron
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Blind Test ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Great Opportunity ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The FP7 project EUPORIAS was a great opportunity for the climate community to co-design with stakeholders some original and innovative climate services at seasonal time scales. In this framework, Météo-France proposed a prototype that aimed to provide to water resource managers some tailored information to better anticipate the coming season. It is based on a forecasting system, built on a refined hydrological suite, forced by a coupled seasonal forecast model. It particularly delivers probabilistic river flow prediction on river basins all over the French territory. This paper presents the work we have done with "EPTB Seine Grands Lacs" (EPTB SGL), an institutional stakeholder in charge of the management of 4 great reservoirs on the upper Seine Basin. First, we present the co-design phase, which means the translation of classical climate outputs into several indices, relevant to influence the stakeholder's decision making process (DMP). And second, we detail the evaluation of the impact of the forecast on the DMP. This evaluation is based on an experiment realised in collaboration with the stakeholder. Concretely EPTB SGL has replayed some past decisions, in three different contexts: without any forecast, with a forecast A and with a forecast B. One of forecast A and B really contained seasonal forecast, the other only contained random forecasts taken from past climate. This placebo experiment, realised in a blind test, allowed us to calculate promising skill scores of the DMP based on seasonal forecast in comparison to a classical approach based on climatology, and to EPTG SGL current practice.

scholarly journals A Bibliometrics Review of Water Footprint Research in China: 2003–2018

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 5082 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhu ◽  
Jiang ◽  
Han ◽  
Gao ◽  
He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Water Footprint ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Water Security ◽  
China National Knowledge Infrastructure ◽  
Knowledge Infrastructure ◽  
Key Points ◽  
Bibliometric Review ◽  
The Impact

As water security becomes an increasingly important issue, the analysis of the conflict between water supply and demand has gained significance in China. This paper details a bibliometric review of papers published between 2003 and 2018 on the water footprint in China, one of the global hotspots of water resource research. The tendencies and key points of water footprint research were systematically analyzed based on 1564 articles, comprising 1170 original publications in Chinese from the China National Knowledge Infrastructure database and 394 publications in English from the Web of Science database. The results show that the literature associated with water footprint research has expanded significantly. The number of papers published increased from 104 in 2003–2006 to 735 in 2015–2018. Water footprint research has been applied to agricultural, industrial, and regional water resource management to quantify the impact of human activities on water resources and the environment. Water footprint metrics were extracted for regional comparisons. There are obvious regional characteristics of the water footprint in China, but the uncertainty of results makes further investigation necessary. Further water footprint modeling and field experimental research is needed to explore the water–ecological environment under complex systems.

scholarly journals A simulation impact evaluation of social-economic development on water resource use

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 137-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenyi Wang ◽  
Weihua Zeng ◽  
Bo Yao ◽  
Jing Wei
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Social Growth ◽  
Tongzhou District ◽  
Social Economic Development ◽  
The Impact

Due to the fast growth of the economy and population, the water scarcity issue has aroused widespread critical concern. In fact, reasonable structure, adaptive patterns and effective regulation of the economy, society and water resources can bring a harmonious future. Therefore, the study of how to balance economic social growth and water resources is of great importance. A model of the water resource, society and economy system of the Tongzhou district was designed by Stella. The model established here attempts to analyze future trends in social-economic development and the impact of the economic and population growth on water use in the Tongzhou district under three scenarios. The results reveal that the water shortage is very serious. If the current trends persist, the existing water supply will not be able to meet the water demand in the future. Tongzhou district's water shortage will be 162.50 million m3 in 2020 under the business-as-usual scenario. Therefore, it is necessary to develop unconventional water sources and improve the water-saving capacity of production and life to alleviate the water tensions. This research offers insight into larger questions regarding economic growth and water resource management in general.

Assessing the impact of projected climate change on drought vulnerability in Scotland

2014 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 806-816 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Gosling
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Resource Scarcity ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Collaborative Project ◽  
North West ◽  
Ecological Implications ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Although Scotland is relatively water resource rich in a UK and European context, water resource scarcity can occur during exceptional dry periods such as those experienced in North West Scotland during July 2012. Precipitation and flow anomaly indices have been recently developed and introduced operationally by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, in order to assess the severity of dry episodes and use this information within the decision-making process when managing the ecological implications of measures required to ensure continuity of water supply. The latest projections of future climate in the UK (UKCP09) point to warmer, drier summers across much of Scotland and, as such, imply an increased frequency of periods of water shortage. This study makes use of the results from a collaborative project in which projected values of climate variables have been used to derive projected river flows at a number of catchments across the UK. These datasets have been used to evaluate the change in frequency of significant precipitation and flow deficits in Scotland. The findings suggest a marked increase in frequency of summer water resource scarcity across much of Scotland which has implications for water resource management, particularly where current storage is relatively low.

scholarly journals Choices in the Verification of S2S Forecasts and Their Implications for Climate Services

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (10) ◽  
pp. 3995-4008
Author(s):  
Andrea Manrique-Suñén ◽  
Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego ◽  
Verónica Torralba ◽  
Nicola Cortesi ◽  
Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Keyword(s):  
Skill Score ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Probabilistic Evaluation ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Start Dates

AbstractSubseasonal predictions bridge the gap between medium-range weather forecasts and seasonal climate predictions. This time scale is crucial for operations and planning in many sectors such as energy and agriculture. For users to trust these predictions and efficiently make use of them in decision-making, the quality of predicted near-surface parameters needs to be systematically assessed. However, the method to follow in a probabilistic evaluation of subseasonal predictions is not trivial. This study aims to offer an illustration of the impact that the verification setup might have on the calculation of the skill scores, thus providing some guidelines for subseasonal forecast evaluation. For this, several forecast verification setups to calculate the fair ranked probability skill score for tercile categories have been designed. These setups use different number of samples to compute the fair RPSS as well as different ways to define the climatology, characterized by different time periods to average (week or month). These setups have been tested by evaluating 2-m temperature in ECMWF-Ext-ENS 20-yr hindcasts for all of the initializations in 2016 against the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Then, the implications on skill score values of each of the setups are analyzed. Results show that to obtain a robust skill score several start dates need to be employed. It is also shown that a constant monthly climatology over each calendar month may introduce spurious skill score associated with the seasonal cycle. A weekly climatology bears similar results to a monthly running-window climatology; however, the latter provides a better reference climatology when bias adjustment is applied.

Assessing reasons for skilful predictions of winter windstorms over the Atlantic/European region

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Degenhardt ◽  
Gregor Leckebusch ◽  
Adam Scaife
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Financial Industry ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Skill Scores

<p>Severe Atlantic winter storms are affecting densely populated regions of Europe (e.g. UK, France, Germany, etc.). Consequently, different parts of the society, financial industry (e.g., insurance) and last but not least the general public are interested in skilful forecasts for the upcoming storm season (usually December to March). To allow for a best possible use of steadily improved seasonal forecasts, the understanding which factors contribute to realise forecast skill is essential and will allow for an assessment whether to expect a forecast to be skilful or not.</p><p>This study analyses the predictability of the seasonal forecast model of the UK MetOffice, the GloSea5. Windstorm events are identified and tracked following Leckebusch et al. (2008) via the exceedance of the 98<sup>th</sup> percentile of the near surface wind speed.</p><p>Seasonal predictability of windstorm frequency in comparison to observations (based e.g., on ERA5 reanalysis) are calculated and different statistical methods (skill scores) are compared.</p><p>Large scale patterns (e.g., NAO, AO, EAWR, etc.) and dynamical factors (e.g., Eady Growth Rate) are analysed and their predictability is assessed in comparison to storm frequency forecast skill. This will lead to an idea how the forecast skill of windstorms is depending on the forecast skill of forcing factors conditional to the phase of large-scale variability modes. Thus, we deduce information, which factors are most important to generate seasonal forecast skill for severe extra-tropical windstorms.</p><p>The results can be used to get a better understanding of the resulting skill for the upcoming windstorm season.</p>

Skill assessment of a seasonal forecast model to predict drought events for water resource systems

2018 ◽  
Vol 564 ◽  
pp. 574-587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaime Madrigal ◽  
Abel Solera ◽  
Sara Suárez-Almiñana ◽  
Javier Paredes-Arquiola ◽  
Joaquín Andreu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Skill Assessment ◽  
Resource Systems

scholarly journals Dynamics of Water Quality: Impact Assessment Process for Water Resource Management

Processes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ejaz-ul-Hassan Bhatti ◽  
Mudasser Muneer Khan ◽  
Syyed Adnan Raheel Shah ◽  
Syed Safdar Raza ◽  
Muhammad Shoaib ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Resource Management ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Irrigation Canal ◽  
Quality Of Water ◽  
Irrigation Purpose ◽  
The Impact

Surface water is an important source of water supply for irrigation purpose and in urban areas, sewage water is being disposed of in nearby canals without treatment. A study was conducted to investigate the dynamics of water quality of irrigation canal as a result of this practice. The study ascertained the impact of different salinity parameters, indices and approaches to examine the hazardous effects on quality of canal water. The study analyses the samples collected for various parameters like pH, TDS, EC, Na, Cl, Ca, Mg, K, CO3, HCO3 etc. It helped to decide the restriction on use of water based on FAO-UN guidelines. Investigations were focused on assessment of contaminants affecting the quality of water and having hazardous effects on different stages of irrigation water usage. Wilcox diagram and Doneen’s approach-based analysis helped to identify the class and quality of water. This study shall help to analyze the quality of water and provide support to the decision makers for better water resource management and policy development for irrigation purpose i.e. treatment and distribution of water resource.

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