Assessing the impact of projected climate change on drought vulnerability in Scotland

2014 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 806-816 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Gosling
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Resource Scarcity ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Collaborative Project ◽  
North West ◽  
Ecological Implications ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Although Scotland is relatively water resource rich in a UK and European context, water resource scarcity can occur during exceptional dry periods such as those experienced in North West Scotland during July 2012. Precipitation and flow anomaly indices have been recently developed and introduced operationally by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, in order to assess the severity of dry episodes and use this information within the decision-making process when managing the ecological implications of measures required to ensure continuity of water supply. The latest projections of future climate in the UK (UKCP09) point to warmer, drier summers across much of Scotland and, as such, imply an increased frequency of periods of water shortage. This study makes use of the results from a collaborative project in which projected values of climate variables have been used to derive projected river flows at a number of catchments across the UK. These datasets have been used to evaluate the change in frequency of significant precipitation and flow deficits in Scotland. The findings suggest a marked increase in frequency of summer water resource scarcity across much of Scotland which has implications for water resource management, particularly where current storage is relatively low.

scholarly journals A simulation impact evaluation of social-economic development on water resource use

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 137-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenyi Wang ◽  
Weihua Zeng ◽  
Bo Yao ◽  
Jing Wei
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Social Growth ◽  
Tongzhou District ◽  
Social Economic Development ◽  
The Impact

Due to the fast growth of the economy and population, the water scarcity issue has aroused widespread critical concern. In fact, reasonable structure, adaptive patterns and effective regulation of the economy, society and water resources can bring a harmonious future. Therefore, the study of how to balance economic social growth and water resources is of great importance. A model of the water resource, society and economy system of the Tongzhou district was designed by Stella. The model established here attempts to analyze future trends in social-economic development and the impact of the economic and population growth on water use in the Tongzhou district under three scenarios. The results reveal that the water shortage is very serious. If the current trends persist, the existing water supply will not be able to meet the water demand in the future. Tongzhou district's water shortage will be 162.50 million m3 in 2020 under the business-as-usual scenario. Therefore, it is necessary to develop unconventional water sources and improve the water-saving capacity of production and life to alleviate the water tensions. This research offers insight into larger questions regarding economic growth and water resource management in general.

scholarly journals Water Resource Management: Moving from Single Risk-Based Management to Resilience to Multiple Stressors

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 8609
Author(s):  
Sarah Bunney ◽  
Elizabeth Lawson ◽  
Sarah Cotterill ◽  
David Butler
Keyword(s):  
Resource Management ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Multiple Stressors ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Water resource management in the UK is multifaceted, with a complexity of issues arising from acute and chronic stressors. Below average rainfall in spring 2020 coincided with large-scale changes to domestic water consumption patterns, arising from the first UK-wide COVID-19 lockdown, resulting in increased pressure on nationwide resources. A sector wide survey, semi-structured interviews with sector executives, meteorological data, water resource management plans and market information were used to evaluate the impact of acute and chronic threats on water demand in the UK, and how resilience to both can be increased. The COVID-19 pandemic was a particularly acute threat: water demand increased across the country, it was unpredictable and hard to forecast, and compounding this, below average rainfall resulted in some areas having to tanker in water to ‘top up’ the network. This occurred in regions of the UK that are ‘water stressed’ as well as those that are not. We therefore propose a need to look beyond ‘design droughts’ and ‘dry weather average demand’ to characterise the management and resilience of future water resources. As a sector, we can learn from this acute threat and administer a more integrated approach, combining action on the social value of water, the implementation of water trading and the development of nationwide multi-sectoral resilience plans to better respond to short and long-term disruptors.

scholarly journals System Dynamics-Multiple Objective Optimization Model for Water Resource Management: A Case Study in Jiaxing City, China

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 671
Author(s):  
Xiaoying Zhou ◽  
Feier Wang ◽  
Kuan Huang ◽  
Huichun Zhang ◽  
Jie Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Resource Management ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Allocation ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Multiple Objective ◽  
Multiple Objective Optimization ◽  
Model Framework

Predicting and allocating water resources have become important tasks in water resource management. System dynamics and optimal planning models are widely applied to solve individual problems, but are seldom combined in studies. In this work, we developed a framework involving a system dynamics-multiple objective optimization (SD-MOO) model, which integrated the functions of simulation, policy control, and water allocation, and applied it to a case study of water management in Jiaxing, China to demonstrate the modeling. The predicted results of the case study showed that water shortage would not occur at a high-inflow level during 2018–2035 but would appear at mid- and low-inflow levels in 2025 and 2022, respectively. After we made dynamic adjustments to water use efficiency, economic growth, population growth, and water resource utilization, the predicted water shortage rates decreased by approximately 69–70% at the mid- and low-inflow levels in 2025 and 2035 compared to the scenarios without any adjustment strategies. Water allocation schemes obtained from the “prediction + dynamic regulation + optimization” framework were competitive in terms of social, economic and environmental benefits and flexibly satisfied the water demands. The case study demonstrated that the SD-MOO model framework could be an effective tool in achieving sustainable water resource management.

scholarly journals Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UK

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (12) ◽  
pp. 6059-6073
Author(s):  
Andres Peñuela ◽  
Christopher Hutton ◽  
Francesca Pianosi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Maker ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Ensemble Size ◽  
Streamflow Prediction ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Hydrological Conditions ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. Improved skill of long-range weather forecasts has motivated an increasing effort towards developing seasonal hydrological forecasting systems across Europe. Among other purposes, such forecasting systems are expected to support better water management decisions. In this paper we evaluate the potential use of a real-time optimization system (RTOS) informed by seasonal forecasts in a water supply system in the UK. For this purpose, we simulate the performances of the RTOS fed by ECMWF seasonal forecasting systems (SEAS5) over the past 10 years, and we compare them to a benchmark operation that mimics the common practices for reservoir operation in the UK. We also attempt to link the improvement of system performances, i.e. the forecast value, to the forecast skill (measured by the mean error and the continuous ranked probability skill score) as well as to the bias correction of the meteorological forcing, the decision maker priorities, the hydrological conditions and the forecast ensemble size. We find that in particular the decision maker priorities and the hydrological conditions exert a strong influence on the forecast skill–value relationship. For the (realistic) scenario where the decision maker prioritizes the water resource availability over energy cost reductions, we identify clear operational benefits from using seasonal forecasts, provided that forecast uncertainty is explicitly considered by optimizing against an ensemble of 25 equiprobable forecasts. These operational benefits are also observed when the ensemble size is reduced up to a certain limit. However, when comparing the use of ECMWF-SEAS5 products to ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP), which is more easily derived from historical weather data, we find that ESP remains a hard-to-beat reference, not only in terms of skill but also in terms of value.

scholarly journals 'Greenfields' and 'Brownfields': automotive industrial development in the UK and in Portugal

Finisterra ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 31 (62) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Pike ◽  
Mário Vale
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Policy ◽  
Automobile Industry ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Development Strategies ◽  
North West ◽  
Demonstration Effect ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

The industrial policy in the UK and in Portugal, as in most EU countries, seeks to attract new investment capacity, to create jobs and to promote the impact of the so-called "demonstration efect" of "greenfield" development strategies pursued in the new plants of inward investors on existing or "brownfield" plants. This industrial policy focus is particularly evident in the automobile industry.This paper compares the industrial policy oriented towards the automobile industry in the UK and in Portugal. Two recent "greenfield" investments are analised: Nissan in the North-East region (UK) and Ford/VW in the Setúbal Peninsula (Portugal), as well as three "brownfield" plants: Ford Halewood and GM Vauxhall Ellesmere Port in the North-West region (UK) and Renault in Setúbal (Portugal). The first part starts with a discussion of industrial policy in the automobile sector, the role of "greenfield" development strategies and the "demonstration effect" on "brownfield" plants. Then, the limits of new inward investment are pointed out, basically their problems and restrictions. Afterwards, the structural barriers to the "demonstration effect" within "brownfield" plants are outlined and some possabilities for alternative "brownfield" development strategies are presented.

scholarly journals A Bibliometrics Review of Water Footprint Research in China: 2003–2018

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 5082 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhu ◽  
Jiang ◽  
Han ◽  
Gao ◽  
He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Water Footprint ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Water Security ◽  
China National Knowledge Infrastructure ◽  
Knowledge Infrastructure ◽  
Key Points ◽  
Bibliometric Review ◽  
The Impact

As water security becomes an increasingly important issue, the analysis of the conflict between water supply and demand has gained significance in China. This paper details a bibliometric review of papers published between 2003 and 2018 on the water footprint in China, one of the global hotspots of water resource research. The tendencies and key points of water footprint research were systematically analyzed based on 1564 articles, comprising 1170 original publications in Chinese from the China National Knowledge Infrastructure database and 394 publications in English from the Web of Science database. The results show that the literature associated with water footprint research has expanded significantly. The number of papers published increased from 104 in 2003–2006 to 735 in 2015–2018. Water footprint research has been applied to agricultural, industrial, and regional water resource management to quantify the impact of human activities on water resources and the environment. Water footprint metrics were extracted for regional comparisons. There are obvious regional characteristics of the water footprint in China, but the uncertainty of results makes further investigation necessary. Further water footprint modeling and field experimental research is needed to explore the water–ecological environment under complex systems.

scholarly journals Analysis of the characteristics of global virtual water trade network using degree and eigenvector centrality, with a focus on food and feed crops

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang-Hyun Lee ◽  
Rabi H. Mohtar ◽  
Jin-Yong Choi ◽  
Seung-Hwan Yoo
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Virtual Water ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Green Water ◽  
Blue Water ◽  
Eigenvector Centrality ◽  
Virtual Water Trade ◽  
Western Asia ◽  
The Usa

Abstract. This study aims to analyse the characteristics of global virtual water trade (GVWT) such as connectivity of each trader, vulnerable importers, and influential countries using degree and eigenvector centrality during the period 2006–2010. The degree centrality was used to measure the connectivity and eigenvector centrality was used to measure the influence on entire GVWT network. Mexico, Egypt, China, Korea Rep., and Japan were classified to vulnerable importers because they imported a lot of virtual water with the low connectivity. Especially, Egypt had 15.3 Gm³ year-1 blue water savings effects through GVWT, thus the vulnerable structure could cause the water shortage problem in importer. The entire GVWT network could be changed by a few nodes which call influential traders, and we figured out the influential traders using eigenvector centrality. In GVWT for food crops, the USA, Russian Federation, Thailand, and Canada had high eigenvector with a large volume of green water trade. In case of blue water trade, western Asia, Pakistan, and India had high eigenvector centrality. For feed crops, the green water trade in the USA, Brazil, and Argentina was the most influential. However, Argentina and Pakistan used the high proportion of internal water resource for virtual water export (32.9 and 25.1 %), thus rest of traders should consider the water resource management in these exporters carefully.

scholarly journals Assessing the value of seasonal hydrological forecasts for improving water resource management: insights from a pilot application in the UK

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andres Peñuela ◽  
Christopher Hutton ◽  
Francesca Pianosi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Maker ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
The Common ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. Improved skill of long-range weather forecasts has motivated an increasing effort towards developing seasonal hydrological forecasting systems across Europe. Among other purposes, such forecasting systems are expected to support better water management decisions. In this paper we evaluate the potential use of a real-time optimisation system (RTOS) informed by seasonal forecasts in a water supply system in the UK. For this purpose, we simulate the performances of the RTOS fed by ECMWF seasonal forecasting systems (SEAS5) over the past ten years, and we compare them to a benchmark operation that mimics the common practices for reservoir operation in the UK. We also attempt to link the improvement of system performances, i.e. the forecast value, to the forecast skill (measured by the mean error and the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score) as well as other factors such as bias correction, the decision maker priorities, hydrological conditions and level of uncertainty consideration. We find that some of these factors control the forecast value much more strongly than the forecast skill. For the (realistic) scenario where the decision-maker prioritises water resource availability over energy cost reductions, we identify clear operational benefits from using seasonal forecasts, provided that forecast uncertainty is explicitly considered. However, when comparing the use of ECMWF-SEAS5 products to ensemble streamflow predictions (ESP), which are more easily derived from historical weather data, we find that ESP remains a hard-to-beat reference not only in terms of skill but also in terms of value.

scholarly journals A Water Evaluation and Planning-based framework for the long-term prediction of urban water demand and supply

SIMULATION ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 003754972098425
Author(s):  
Arfa Saleem ◽  
Imran Mahmood ◽  
Hessam Sarjoughian ◽  
Hasan Arshad Nasir ◽  
Asad Waqar Malik
Keyword(s):  
Resource Management ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Resource Scarcity ◽  
Urban Setting ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Urban Water ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Water Evaluation And Planning

Increased usage and non-efficient management of limited resources has created the risk of water resource scarcity. Due to climate change, urbanization, and lack of effective water resource management, countries like Pakistan are facing difficulties coping with the increasing water demand. Rapid urbanization and non-resilient infrastructures are the key barriers in sustainable urban water resource management. Therefore, there is an urgent need to address the challenges of urban water management through effective means. We propose a workflow for the modeling and simulation of sustainable urban water resource management and develop an integrated framework for the evaluation and planning of water resources in a typical urban setting. The proposed framework uses the Water Evaluation and Planning system to evaluate current and future water demand and the supply gap. Our simulation scenarios demonstrate that the demand–supply gap can effectively be dealt with by dynamic resource allocation, in the presence of assumptions, for example, those related to population and demand variation with the change of weather, and thus work as a tool for informed decisions for supply management. In the first scenario, 23% yearly water demand is reduced, while in the second scenario, no unmet demand is observed due to the 21% increase in supply delivered. Similarly, the overall demand is fulfilled through 23% decrease in water demand using water conservation. Demand-side management not only reduces the water usage in demand sites but also helps to save money, and preserve the environment. Our framework coupled with a visualization dashboard deployed in the water resource management department of a metropolitan area can assist in water planning and effective governance.

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