Supplementary material to "Global atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> inverse models converging on neutral tropical land exchange but diverging on fossil fuel and atmospheric growth rate"

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Gaubert ◽  
Britton B. Stephens ◽  
Sourish Basu ◽  
Frédéric Chevallier ◽  
Feng Deng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Inverse Models ◽  
Supplementary Material ◽  
Land Exchange

scholarly journals Global atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> inverse models converging on neutral tropical land exchange but diverging on fossil fuel and atmospheric growth rate

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Gaubert ◽  
Britton B. Stephens ◽  
Sourish Basu ◽  
Frédéric Chevallier ◽  
Feng Deng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Environmental Research ◽  
Inverse Models

Abstract. We have compared a suite of recent global CO2 atmospheric inversion results to independent airborne observations and to each other, to assess their dependence on differences in northern extratropical vertical transport and to identify some of the drivers of model spread. We evaluate posterior CO2 concentration profiles against observations from the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) aircraft campaigns over the mid Pacific in 2009–2011. Although the models differ in inverse approaches, assimilated observations, prior fluxes, and transport models, their latitudinal distributions of land fluxes have converged significantly since the Atmospheric Carbon Cycle Inversion Intercomparison (TransCom3) and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) projects, with model spread reduced by 80 % since TransCom3 and 70 % since RECCAP. Most modelled CO2 fields agree reasonably well with the HIPPO observations, in particular for annual mean vertical gradients in the northern hemisphere. Northern hemisphere vertical mixing no longer appears to be a dominant driver of northern versus tropical annual flux differences. Our newer suite of models still gives modest northern extratropical land uptake and near neutral tropical land uptake for 2009–2011, thus implying a continued strong uptake in intact tropical forests given estimates of emissions from deforestation. The results from these models for other time periods (2004–2014, 2001–2004, 1992–1996), and re-evaluation of the TransCom3 Level 2 and RECCAP results confirms that tropical land carbon fluxes including deforestation have been near neutral for several decades. However, models still have large disagreements on ocean-land partitioning, and this is influenced by differences in prescribed fossil fuel emissions and is associated with differences in retrieved atmospheric growth rate. The fossil fuel and the atmospheric growth rate terms have been thought to be the best-known terms in the global carbon budget, but we show that they dominate the model spread at the largest scales and currently limit our ability to assess regional scale terrestrial fluxes and ocean-land partitioning from the model ensemble.

scholarly journals Global atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> inverse models converging on neutral tropical land exchange, but disagreeing on fossil fuel and atmospheric growth rate

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Gaubert ◽  
Britton B. Stephens ◽  
Sourish Basu ◽  
Frédéric Chevallier ◽  
Feng Deng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Environmental Research ◽  
Inverse Models

Abstract. We have compared a suite of recent global CO2 atmospheric inversion results to independent airborne observations and to each other, to assess their dependence on differences in northern extratropical (NET) vertical transport and to identify some of the drivers of model spread. We evaluate posterior CO2 concentration profiles against observations from the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) aircraft campaigns over the mid-Pacific in 2009–2011. Although the models differ in inverse approaches, assimilated observations, prior fluxes, and transport models, their broad latitudinal separation of land fluxes has converged significantly since the Atmospheric Carbon Cycle Inversion Intercomparison (TransCom 3) and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) projects, with model spread reduced by 80 % since TransCom 3 and 70 % since RECCAP. Most modeled CO2 fields agree reasonably well with the HIPPO observations, specifically for the annual mean vertical gradients in the Northern Hemisphere. Northern Hemisphere vertical mixing no longer appears to be a dominant driver of northern versus tropical (T) annual flux differences. Our newer suite of models still gives northern extratropical land uptake that is modest relative to previous estimates (Gurney et al., 2002; Peylin et al., 2013) and near-neutral tropical land uptake for 2009–2011. Given estimates of emissions from deforestation, this implies a continued uptake in intact tropical forests that is strong relative to historical estimates (Gurney et al., 2002; Peylin et al., 2013). The results from these models for other time periods (2004–2014, 2001–2004, 1992–1996) and re-evaluation of the TransCom 3 Level 2 and RECCAP results confirm that tropical land carbon fluxes including deforestation have been near neutral for several decades. However, models still have large disagreements on ocean–land partitioning. The fossil fuel (FF) and the atmospheric growth rate terms have been thought to be the best-known terms in the global carbon budget, but we show that they currently limit our ability to assess regional-scale terrestrial fluxes and ocean–land partitioning from the model ensemble.

scholarly journals Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2565-2584 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. P. Ballantyne ◽  
R. Andres ◽  
R. Houghton ◽  
B. D. Stocker ◽  
R. Wanninkhof ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Global Carbon Budget ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Observation Network ◽  
C Cycle ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

Abstract. Over the last 5 decades monitoring systems have been developed to detect changes in the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere and ocean; however, our ability to detect changes in the behavior of the global C cycle is still hindered by measurement and estimate errors. Here we present a rigorous and flexible framework for assessing the temporal and spatial components of estimate errors and their impact on uncertainty in net C uptake by the biosphere. We present a novel approach for incorporating temporally correlated random error into the error structure of emission estimates. Based on this approach, we conclude that the 2σ uncertainties of the atmospheric growth rate have decreased from 1.2 Pg C yr−1 in the 1960s to 0.3 Pg C yr−1 in the 2000s due to an expansion of the atmospheric observation network. The 2σ uncertainties in fossil fuel emissions have increased from 0.3 Pg C yr−1 in the 1960s to almost 1.0 Pg C yr−1 during the 2000s due to differences in national reporting errors and differences in energy inventories. Lastly, while land use emissions have remained fairly constant, their errors still remain high and thus their global C uptake uncertainty is not trivial. Currently, the absolute errors in fossil fuel emissions rival the total emissions from land use, highlighting the extent to which fossil fuels dominate the global C budget. Because errors in the atmospheric growth rate have decreased faster than errors in total emissions have increased, a ~20% reduction in the overall uncertainty of net C global uptake has occurred. Given all the major sources of error in the global C budget that we could identify, we are 93% confident that terrestrial C uptake has increased and 97% confident that ocean C uptake has increased over the last 5 decades. Thus, it is clear that arguably one of the most vital ecosystem services currently provided by the biosphere is the continued removal of approximately half of atmospheric CO2 emissions from the atmosphere, although there are certain environmental costs associated with this service, such as the acidification of ocean waters.

scholarly journals Supplementary material to "The Vulcan Version 3.0 High-Resolution Fossil Fuel CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions for the United States"

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin R. Gurney ◽  
Jianming Liang ◽  
Risa Patarasuk ◽  
Yang Song ◽  
Jianhua Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
The United States ◽  
Supplementary Material

scholarly journals Supplementary material to "Enhanced growth rate of atmospheric particles from sulfuric acid"

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Stolzenburg ◽  
Mario Simon ◽  
Ananth Ranjithkumar ◽  
Andreas Kürten ◽  
Katrianne Lehtipalo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Sulfuric Acid ◽  
Atmospheric Particles ◽  
Supplementary Material

scholarly journals The state of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere using global observations through 2018

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oksana Tarasova ◽  
Alex Vermeulen ◽  
Jocelyn Turnbull ◽  
Yousuke Sawa ◽  
Ed Dlugokencky
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Advisory Group ◽  
Average Growth Rate ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
The World

&lt;p&gt;We present results from the fifteenth annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10100) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The results are based on research and observations performed by laboratories contributing to the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme (https://community.wmo.int/activity-areas/gaw).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The Bulletin presents results of global analyses of observational data collected according to GAW recommended practices and submitted to the World Data Center for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG). Bulletins are prepared by the WMO/GAW Scientific Advisory Group for Greenhouse Gases in collaboration with WDCGG.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Observations used for the global analysis are collected at more than 100 marine and terrestrial sites worldwide for CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; and at a smaller number of sites for other greenhouse gases. The globally averaged surface mole fractions calculated from this in situ network reached new highs in 2018, with CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; at 407.8 &amp;#177; 0.1 ppm, CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; at 1869 &amp;#177; 2 ppb and N&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O at 331.1 &amp;#177; 0.1 ppb. These values constitute, respectively, 147%, 259% and 123% of pre-industrial (before 1750) levels. The increase in CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; from 2017 to 2018 is very close to that observed from 2016 to 2017 and practically equal to the average growth rate over the last decade. The increase of CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; from 2017 to 2018 was higher than both that observed from 2016 to 2017 and the average growth rate over the last decade. The increase of N&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O from 2017 to 2018 was also higher than that observed from 2016 to 2017 and the average growth rate over the past 10 years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) shows that from 1990 to 2018, radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) increased by 43%, with CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; accounting for about 81% of this increase.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The Bulletin highlights the value of the long-term measurement of the GHGs isotopic composition. In particular, it presents the use of the radiocarbon and &lt;sup&gt;13&lt;/sup&gt;C measurements in atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; in discriminating between fossil fuel combustion and natural sources of CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;. The simultaneous decline in both &lt;sup&gt;13&lt;/sup&gt;C and &lt;sup&gt;14&lt;/sup&gt;C content alongside CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; increases can only be explained by the ongoing release of CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; from fossil fuel burning. The Bulletin also articulates how the measurements of the stable isotopes can be used to provide the insights into the renewed growth of methane that started in 2007. Though there are several hypotheses articulated in the peer-reviewed literature, the most plausible is that an increase has occurred in some or all sources of biogenic (wetlands, ruminants or waste) emissions, which contain relatively little &lt;sup&gt;13&lt;/sup&gt;C. An increase in the proportion of global emissions from microbial sources may have driven both the increase in the methane burden and the shift in &amp;#948;&lt;sup&gt;13&lt;/sup&gt;C-CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;

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