The response of tropical precipitation to Earth's precession: The role of fluxes and vertical stability
Abstract. The changes in Earth's precession have an impact on tropical precipitation. These changes have been ascribed to the changes in solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, but this cannot explain the variations in precipitation over oceans. Using energy and moisture budget equations we have shown that the surface energy fluxes, as well as vertical stability, have to be taken into consideration along with insolation, to explain these changes in precipitation. Energy fluxes explain most of the changes in precipitation, when looking at the mean response over the tropics. However, there are regions like the Arabian sea and Africa where stability change is the main cause of change in precipitation. Hence, insolation cannot be thought of as the sole driver of precipitation on orbital timescales, but surface energy and vertical stability should also be considered when looking at oceans or smaller land regions. The decrease in precipitation over the Bay of Bengal, with higher summer insolation, has been shown to be due to the decrease in surface latent heat fluxes. This is a consequence of the remote response of the atmosphere to the enhanced latent heating to the west of Bay of Bengal. This leads to a decrease in wind speed over the Bay of Bengal and hence reduces the total column energy available for convection.