scholarly journals Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 3789-3824 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Bothe ◽  
J. H. Jungclaus ◽  
D. Zanchettin
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
The Other ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Climate Evolution

Abstract. We present an assessment of the probabilistic and climatological consistency of the CMIP5/PMIP3 ensemble simulations for the last millennium relative to proxy-based reconstructions under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. We evaluate whether simulations and reconstructions are compatible realizations of the unknown past climate evolution. A lack of consistency is diagnosed in surface air temperature data for the Pacific, European and North Atlantic regions. On the other hand, indications are found that temperature signals partially agree in the western tropical Pacific, the subtropical North Pacific and the South Atlantic. Deviations from consistency may change between sub-periods, and they may include pronounced opposite biases in different sub-periods. These distributional inconsistencies originate mainly from differences in multi-centennial to millennial trends. Since the data uncertainties are only weakly constrained, the frequent over-dispersive distributional relations prevent the formal rejection of consistency of the simulation ensemble.

scholarly journals Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 2471-2487 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Bothe ◽  
J. H. Jungclaus ◽  
D. Zanchettin
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Climate Evolution

Abstract. We present an assessment of the probabilistic and climatological consistency of the CMIP5/PMIP3 ensemble simulations for the last millennium relative to proxy-based reconstructions under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. We evaluate whether simulations and reconstructions are compatible realizations of the unknown past climate evolution. A lack of consistency is diagnosed in surface air temperature data for the Pacific, European and North Atlantic regions. On the other hand, indications are found that temperature signals partially agree in the western tropical Pacific, the subtropical North Pacific and the South Atlantic. Deviations from consistency may change between sub-periods, and they may include pronounced opposite biases in different sub-periods. These distributional inconsistencies originate mainly from differences in multi-centennial to millennial trends. Since the data uncertainties are only weakly constrained, the frequently too wide ensemble distributions prevent the formal rejection of consistency of the simulation ensemble. The presented multi-model ensemble consistency assessment gives results very similar to a previously discussed single-model ensemble suggesting that structural and parametric uncertainties do not exceed forcing and internal variability uncertainties.

North Hemispheric winter air temperature variability and its linkage to North Pacific and North Atlantic SST modes?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Binhe Luo ◽  
Dehai Luo ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Lixin Wu
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Pacific

<p>Winter surface air temperature (SAT) over North America exhibits pronounced variability on sub-seasonal-to-interdecadal timescales, but its causes are not fully understood. Here observational and reanalysis data from 1950-2017 are analyzed to investigate these causes. Detrended daily SAT data reveals a known warm-west/cold-east (WWCE) dipole over midlatitude North America and a cold-north/warm-south (CNWS) dipole over eastern North America. It is found that while the North Pacific blocking (PB) is important for the WWCE and CNWS dipoles, they also depend on the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). When a negative-phase NAO (NAO-) concurs with PB, the WWCE dipole is enhanced (compared with the PB alone case) and it also leads to a warm north/cold south dipole anomaly in eastern North America; but when PB occurs with a positive-phase NAO (NAO<sup>+</sup>), the WWCE dipole weakens and the CNWS dipole is enhanced. In particular, the WWCE dipole is favored by a combination of eastward-displaced PB and NAO<sup>-</sup> that form a negative Arctic Oscillation. Furthermore, a WWCE dipole can form over midlatitude North America when PB occurs together with southward-displaced NAO<sup>+</sup>.The PB events concurring with NAO<sup>-</sup> (NAO<sup>+</sup>) and SAT WWCE (CNWS) dipole are favored by the El Nio-like (La Nia-like) SST mode, though related to the North Atlantic warm-cold-warm (cold-warm-cold) SST tripole pattern. It is also found that the North Pacific mode tends to enhance the WWCE SAT dipole through increasing PB-NAO<sup>-</sup> events and producing the WWCE SAT dipole component related to the PB-NAO<sup>+</sup> events because the PB and NAO<sup>+</sup> form a more zonal wave train in this case.</p>

scholarly journals Multidecadal Fluctuation of the Wintertime Arctic Oscillation Pattern and Its Implication

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (14) ◽  
pp. 5595-5608 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hainan Gong ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
Wen Chen ◽  
Debashis Nath
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Western North America ◽  
Oscillation Pattern ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Pacific

The multidecadal fluctuations in the patterns and teleconnections of the winter mean Arctic Oscillation (AO) are investigated based on observational and reanalysis datasets. Results show that the Atlantic center of the AO pattern remains unchanged throughout the period 1920–2010, whereas the Pacific center of the AO is strong during 1920–59 and 1986–2010 and weak during 1960–85. Consequently, the link between the AO and the surface air temperature over western North America is strong during 1920–59 and 1986–2010 and weak during 1960–85. The time-varying Pacific center of the AO motivates a revisit to the nature of the AO from the perspective of decadal change. It reveals that the North Pacific mode (NPM) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are the inherent regional atmospheric modes over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, respectively. Their patterns over the North Pacific and North Atlantic remain stable and change little with time during 1920–2010. The Atlantic center of the AO always resembles the NAO over the North Atlantic, but the Pacific center of the AO only resembles the NPM over the North Pacific when the NPM–NAO coupling is strong. These results suggest that the AO seems to be fundamentally rooted in the variability over the North Atlantic and that the annular structure of the AO very likely arises from the coupling of the atmospheric modes between the North Pacific and North Atlantic.

scholarly journals Diffusion controls the ventilation of a Pacific Shadow Zone above abyssal overturning

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Holzer ◽  
Tim DeVries ◽  
Casimir de Lavergne
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Carbon Storage ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
The Other ◽  
Shadow Zone ◽  
Surface Ocean ◽  
Pacific Waters ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Bottom Waters

AbstractMid-depth North Pacific waters are rich in nutrients and respired carbon accumulated over centuries. The rates and pathways with which these waters exchange with the surface ocean are uncertain, with divergent paradigms of the Pacific overturning: one envisions bottom waters upwelling to 1.5 km depth; the other confines overturning beneath a mid-depth Pacific shadow zone (PSZ) shielded from mean advection. Here global inverse modelling reveals a PSZ where mean ages exceed 1400 years with overturning beneath. The PSZ is supplied primarily by Antarctic and North-Atlantic ventilated waters diffusing from below and from the south. Half of PSZ waters re-surface in the Southern Ocean, a quarter in the subarctic Pacific. The abyssal North Pacific, despite strong overturning, has mean re-surfacing times also exceeding 1400 years because of diffusion into the overlying PSZ. These results imply that diffusive transports – distinct from overturning transports – are a leading control on Pacific nutrient and carbon storage.

scholarly journals <i>Brief communication</i> "A statistical validation for the cycles found in air temperature data using a Morlet wavelet-based method"

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Nicolay ◽  
G. Mabille ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
M. Erpicum
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Temperature Time Series ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Statistical Validation ◽  
Confidence Levels ◽  
Temperature Time

Abstract. Recently, new cycles, associated with periods of 30 and 43 months, respectively, have been observed by the authors in surface air temperature time series, using a wavelet-based methodology. Although many evidences attest the validity of this method applied to climatic data, no systematic study of its efficiency has been carried out. Here, we estimate confidence levels for this approach and show that the observed cycles are significant. Taking these cycles into consideration should prove helpful in increasing the accuracy of the climate model projections of climate change and weather forecast.

scholarly journals Contribution of SST change to multidecadal global and continental surface air temperature trends between 1910 and 2013

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1295-1313
Author(s):  
Yidan Xu ◽  
Jianping Li ◽  
Cheng Sun ◽  
Xiaopei Lin ◽  
Hailong Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model ◽  
Community Earth System Model ◽  
Goddard Institute

AbstractThe global mean surface air temperature (GMST) shows multidecadal variability over the period of 1910–2013, with an increasing trend. This study quantifies the contribution of hemispheric surface air temperature (SAT) variations and individual ocean sea surface temperature (SST) changes to the GMST multidecadal variability for 1910–2013. At the hemispheric scale, both the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) observations and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Community Atmosphere Model 5.3 (CAM5.3) simulation indicate that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) favors the GMST multidecadal trend during periods of accelerated warming (1910–1945, 1975–1998) and cooling (1940–1975, 2001–2013), whereas the Southern Hemisphere (SH) slows the intensity of both warming and cooling processes. The contribution of the NH SAT variation to the GMST multidecadal trend is higher than that of the SH. We conduct six experiments with different ocean SST forcing, and find that all the oceans make positive contributions to the GMST multidecadal trend during rapid warming periods. However, only the Indian, North Atlantic, and western Pacific oceans make positive contributions to the GMST multidecadal trend between 1940 and 1975, whereas only the tropical Pacific and the North Pacific SSTs contribute to the GMST multidecadal trend between 2001 and 2013. The North Atlantic and western Pacific oceans have important impacts on modulating the GMST multidecadal trend across the entire 20th century. Each ocean makes different contributions to the SAT multidecadal trend of different continents during different periods.

scholarly journals Influence of radiative forcing factors on ground–air temperature coupling during the last millennium: implications for borehole climatology

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 1583-1606 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilo Melo-Aguilar ◽  
J. Fidel González-Rouco ◽  
Elena García-Bustamante ◽  
Jorge Navarro-Montesinos ◽  
Norman Steinert
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Small Variation ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Reconstruction Methods

Abstract. Past climate variations may be uncovered via reconstruction methods that use proxy data as predictors. Among them, borehole reconstruction is a well-established technique to recover the long-term past surface air temperature (SAT) evolution. It is based on the assumption that SAT changes are strongly coupled to ground surface temperature (GST) changes and transferred to the subsurface by thermal conduction. We evaluate the SAT–GST coupling during the last millennium (LM) using simulations from the Community Earth System Model LM Ensemble (CESM-LME). The validity of such a premise is explored by analyzing the structure of the SAT–GST covariance during the LM and also by investigating the evolution of the long-term SAT–GST relationship. The multiple and single-forcing simulations in the CESM-LME are used to analyze the SAT–GST relationship within different regions and spatial scales and to derive the influence of the different forcing factors on producing feedback mechanisms that alter the energy balance at the surface. The results indicate that SAT–GST coupling is strong at global and above multi-decadal timescales in CESM-LME, although a relatively small variation in the long-term SAT–GST relationship is also represented. However, at a global scale such variation does not significantly impact the SAT–GST coupling, at local to regional scales this relationship experiences considerable long-term changes mostly after the end of the 19th century. Land use land cover changes are the main driver for locally and regionally decoupling SAT and GST, as they modify the land surface properties such as albedo, surface roughness and hydrology, which in turn modifies the energy fluxes at the surface. Snow cover feedbacks due to the influence of other external forcing are also important for corrupting the long-term SAT–GST coupling. Our findings suggest that such local and regional SAT–GST decoupling processes may represent a source of bias for SAT reconstructions from borehole measurement, since the thermal signature imprinted in the subsurface over the affected regions is not fully representative of the long-term SAT variations.

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