Linear predictability of Barents Sea ice cover: effects of coupling and resolution

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuncheng Guo ◽  
Aleksi Nummelin
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Coupled System ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Statistical Prediction ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Small Set

<p>Wintertime Barents Sea ice cover has been strongly linked to heat transport through the Barents Sea opening and Barents Sea heat content. Previous studies have shown predictability at seasonal timescales with short lead times. However, studies that have used statistical prediction have focused on a small set of predictors in the vicinity of the Barents Sea. Here we will extend the analysis further south following the path of the Norwegian Atlantic Current and show that monthly predictability with lead times up to 1-2 years can be achieved in CMIP6 models using Climate Response Function (CRF's). We further examine the effects of model resolution and coupling in the predictability and compare the results to CRF derived from observations. Our results suggest that higher resolution generally leads to stronger predictability and the fully coupled system provides the most realistic response function. The ocean provides a narrow range of lead times corresponding to an advective timescale, while coupling to the atmosphere broadens the lead times that are important for prediction. Finally, we show that even the upstream sea surface temperatures provide relatively high predictability of the Barents Sea ice cover both in the models and in the observations.</p>

scholarly journals Wind-Driven Atlantic Water Flow as a Direct Mode for Reduced Barents Sea Ice Cover

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 803-812 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vidar S. Lien ◽  
Pawel Schlichtholz ◽  
Øystein Skagseth ◽  
Frode B. Vikebø
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
Direct Role ◽  
The Barents Sea

Variability in the Barents Sea ice cover on interannual and longer time scales has previously been shown to be governed by oceanic heat transport. Based on analysis of observations and results from an ocean circulation model during an event of reduced sea ice cover in the northeastern Barents Sea in winter 1993, it is shown that the ocean also plays a direct role within seasons. Positive wind stress curl and associated Ekman divergence causes a coherent increase in the Atlantic water transport along the negative thermal gradient through the Barents Sea. The immediate response connected to the associated local winds in the northeastern Barents Sea is a decrease in the sea ice cover due to advection. Despite a subsequent anomalous ocean-to-air heat loss on the order of 100 W m−2 due to the open water, the increase in the ocean heat content caused by the circulation anomaly reduced refreezing on a time scale of order one month. Furthermore, it is found that coherent ocean heat transport anomalies occurred more frequently in the latter part of the last five decades during periods of positive North Atlantic Oscillation index, coinciding with the Barents Sea winter sea ice cover decline from the 1990s and onward.

Palynological evidence of sea-surface conditions in the Barents Sea off northeast Svalbard during the postglacial period

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Camille Brice ◽  
Anne de Vernal ◽  
Elena Ivanova ◽  
Simon van Bellen ◽  
Nicolas Van Nieuwenhove
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Waters ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
Transitional Period ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Salinity ◽  
Surface Conditions ◽  
The Barents Sea

Abstract Postglacial changes in sea-surface conditions, including sea-ice cover, summer temperature, salinity, and productivity were reconstructed from the analyses of dinocyst assemblages in core S2528 collected in the northwestern Barents Sea. The results show glaciomarine-type conditions until about 11,300 ± 300 cal yr BP and limited influence of Atlantic water at the surface into the Barents Sea possibly due to the proximity of the Svalbard-Barents Sea ice sheet. This was followed by a transitional period generally characterized by cold conditions with dense sea-ice cover and low-salinity pulses likely related to episodic freshwater or meltwater discharge, which lasted until 8700 ± 700 cal yr BP. The onset of “interglacial” conditions in surface waters was marked by a major change in dinocyst assemblages, from dominant heterotrophic to dominant phototrophic taxa. Until 4100 ± 150 cal yr BP, however, sea-surface conditions remained cold, while sea-surface salinity and sea-ice cover recorded large amplitude variations. By ~4000 cal yr BP optimum sea-surface temperature of up to 4°C in summer and maximum salinity of ~34 psu suggest enhanced influence of Atlantic water, and productivity reached up to 150 gC/m2/yr. After 2200 ± 1300 cal yr BP, a distinct cooling trend accompanied by sea-ice spreading characterized surface waters. Hence, during the Holocene, with exception of an interval spanning about 4000 to 2000 cal yr BP, the northern Barents Sea experienced harsh environments, relatively low productivity, and unstable conditions probably unsuitable for human settlements.

scholarly journals Mechanisms influencing seasonal-to-interannual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Ono ◽  
Hiroaki Tatebe ◽  
Yoshiki Komuro ◽  
Masato I. Nodzu ◽  
Masayoshi Ishii
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Subsurface Water ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The Arctic Ocean

Abstract. To assess the skill of predictions of the seasonal-to-interannual detrended sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean (SIEAO) and to clarify the underlying physical processes, we conducted ensemble hindcasts, started on January 1st, April 1st, July 1st, and October 1st for each year from 1980 to 2011, for lead times of up three years, using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) version 5 initialized with the observed atmosphere and ocean anomalies and sea ice concentration. Significant skill is found for the winter months: the December SIEAO can be predicted up to 1 year ahead. This skill is attributed to the subsurface ocean heat content originating in the North Atlantic. The subsurface water flows into the Barents Sea from spring to fall and emerges at the surface in winter by vertical mixing, and eventually affects the sea ice variability there. Meanwhile, the September SIEAO predictions are skillful for lead times of up to 3 months, due to the persistence of sea ice in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian Seas initialized in July, as suggested by previous studies.

scholarly journals The Value of Sustained Ocean Observations for Sea Ice Predictions in the Barents Sea

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (20) ◽  
pp. 7017-7035 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitchell Bushuk ◽  
Xiaosong Yang ◽  
Michael Winton ◽  
Rym Msadek ◽  
Matthew Harrison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Surface Heat Fluxes ◽  
The Barents Sea

ABSTRACT Dynamical prediction systems have shown potential to meet the emerging need for seasonal forecasts of regional Arctic sea ice. Observationally constrained initial conditions are a key source of skill for these predictions, but the direct influence of different observation types on prediction skill has not yet been systematically investigated. In this work, we perform a hierarchy of observing system experiments with a coupled global data assimilation and prediction system to assess the value of different classes of oceanic and atmospheric observations for seasonal sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea. We find notable skill improvements due to the inclusion of both sea surface temperature (SST) satellite observations and subsurface conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) measurements. The SST data are found to provide the crucial source of interannual variability, whereas the CTD data primarily provide climatological and trend improvements. Analysis of the Barents Sea ocean heat budget suggests that ocean heat content anomalies in this region are driven by surface heat fluxes on seasonal time scales.

Quantifying the Influence of Atlantic Heat on Barents Sea Ice Variability and Retreat*

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (13) ◽  
pp. 4736-4743 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Årthun ◽  
T. Eldevik ◽  
L. H. Smedsrud ◽  
Ø. Skagseth ◽  
R. B. Ingvaldsen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat

Abstract The recent Arctic winter sea ice retreat is most pronounced in the Barents Sea. Using available observations of the Atlantic inflow to the Barents Sea and results from a regional ice–ocean model the authors assess and quantify the role of inflowing heat anomalies on sea ice variability. The interannual variability and longer-term decrease in sea ice area reflect the variability of the Atlantic inflow, both in observations and model simulations. During the last decade (1998–2008) the reduction in annual (July–June) sea ice area was 218 × 103 km2, or close to 50%. This reduction has occurred concurrent with an increase in observed Atlantic heat transport due to both strengthening and warming of the inflow. Modeled interannual variations in sea ice area between 1948 and 2007 are associated with anomalous heat transport (r = −0.63) with a 70 × 103 km2 decrease per 10 TW input of heat. Based on the simulated ocean heat budget it is found that the heat transport into the western Barents Sea sets the boundary of the ice-free Atlantic domain and, hence, the sea ice extent. The regional heat content and heat loss to the atmosphere scale with the area of open ocean as a consequence. Recent sea ice loss is thus largely caused by an increasing “Atlantification” of the Barents Sea.

scholarly journals Feedback Mechanism Among Decadal Oscillations in Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation, Sea Ice, and Ocean Circulation

1990 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 120-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Ikeda
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Low Pressure ◽  
Feedback Mechanism ◽  
The Barents Sea

Decadal oscillations of the ice cover in the Barents Sea are examined for the period since 1950. They are highly correlated with atmospheric circulation when that circulation has an anomalous low pressure over the Barents Sea and Eurasian Basin, while the ice cover is weakly correlated with local air temperature. A feedback mechanism between Barents Sea ice and the atmospheric circulation is suggested; increased cyclonic wind-stress curl reduces cold Arctic flow to the Barents Sea and reduces the sea ice. The reduced ice cover encourages heat flux from the Barents Sea to the atmosphere, tending to reinforce the low pressure. This positive feedback amplifies the oscillations of the air–ice–ocean system driven by external forcing with relatively weak decadal variability. A two-level ocean model, which is driven by prescribed buoyancy flux and wind stresses, confirms that Arctic outflow to the Barents Sea decreases during a cyclonic wind stress.

scholarly journals Climatic variations of the Arctic front and the Barents sea ice cover in winter time

2015 ◽  
Vol 125 (1) ◽  
pp. 85 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. N. Zolotokrylin ◽  
T. B. Titkova ◽  
A. Yu. Mikhailov
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climatic Variations ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Arctic Front ◽  
Winter Time

Relationships between wintertime sea ice cover in the Barents Sea and ocean temperature anomalies in the era of satellite observations

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-65
Author(s):  
Pawel Schlichtholz
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Early Period ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ocean Temperature ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Skill Scores

AbstractInvestigation of the predictability of sea ice cover in the Barents Sea is of paramount importance since sea ice changes in this part of the Arctic not only affect local marine ecosystems and human activities but may also influence weather and climate in northern mid-latitudes. Here, observational data from the period 1981-2018 are used to identify statistical linkages of wintertime sea ice cover in the Barents Sea region to preceding sea surface temperature (SST) and Atlantic water temperature anomalies in that region. We find that the ocean temperature anomalies formed by local air-sea interactions during the winter-to-spring season are a significant source of predictability for sea ice area (SIA) in the Barents Sea region the following winter. Optimal areas for constructing SST predictors of Barents Sea SIA and skill scores from retrospective statistical forecasts are shown to differ between the periods to and since the onset of rapid sea ice decline in the region. In the EARLY period (1982-2003), springtime SSTs in the western Barents Sea predicted 44% of the variance of the following winter Barents Sea SIA. In the LATE period (2003-2017), springtime SSTs in the southern Barents Sea predicted 70% of the variance of the following winter Barents Sea SIA. Regression analysis suggests that feedbacks from anomalous winds may be important for the predictability of wintertime sea ice cover in the Barents Sea region.

scholarly journals Subsurface ocean flywheel of coupled climate variability in the Barents Sea hotspot of global warming

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pawel Schlichtholz
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Subsurface Ocean ◽  
Recent Climate

Abstract Accelerated shrinkage of the Arctic sea ice cover is the main reason for the recent Arctic amplification of global warming. There is growing evidence that the ocean is involved in this phenomenon, but to what extent remains unknown. Here, a unique dataset of hydrographic profiles is used to infer the regional pattern of recent subsurface ocean warming and construct a skillful predictor for surface climate variability in the Barents Sea region - a hotspot of the recent climate change. It is shown that, in the era of satellite observations (1981–2018), summertime temperature anomalies of Atlantic water heading for the Arctic Ocean explain more than 80% of the variance of the leading mode of variability in the following winter sea ice concentration over the entire Northern Hemisphere, with main centers of action just in the Barents Sea region. Results from empirical forecast experiments demonstrate that predictability of the wintertime sea ice cover in the Barents Sea from subsurface ocean heat anomalies might have increased since the Arctic climate shift of the mid-2000s. In contrast, the corresponding predictability of the sea ice cover in the nearby Greenland Sea has been lost.

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