Outgoing Long Wave Radiation Dipole of Tropical Cyclones

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohan Smith ◽  
Ralf Toumi
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Motion Vector ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Wave Radiation ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Dipole Pattern ◽  
Skill Improvement

<p>Remote (r ≤ 1800km) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) fields are investigated in observations, the ECMWF ensemble forecast and reanalysis data. A large scale dipole pattern of low and high fluxes are found in both the observations and model. Low OLR regions are positioned within the cyclone circulation and high OLR regions are found 500-1500km to the north west of the TC. The position of the high OLR region rotates anticlockwise about the TC center as the TC motion vector rotates clockwise from westward to eastward. There is a strong association between the low level wind divergence fields and the high OLR remote region. We propose this remote high OLR region is of interest regarding TC track forecasts. Sub-ensembles selected upon the location of the remote high OLR region improved track forecasts improved by 15\% at 6hrs lead time. This technique out performs those sub-ensembles selected by the inner 750km TC OLR signal, however the best skill improvement in the study selects sub-ensembles by a 3600x3600km TC centered OLR field.</p>

SPATIAL LAYOUT OF THE SOVIET UNION TIMBER PROCESSING COMPLEX: THE IDEA BEHIND THE FIRST FIVE-YEAR PLAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 131-154
Author(s):  
Ivan V. ZYKIN
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Far East ◽  
Spatial Layout ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Wood Industry ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
Central Regions

During the years of Soviet power, principal changes took place in the country’s wood industry, including in spatial layout development. Having the large-scale crisis in the industry in the late 1980s — 2000s and the positive changes in its functioning in recent years and the development of an industry strategy, it becomes relevant to analyze the experience of planning the spatial layout of the wood industry during the period of Stalin’s modernization, particularly during the first five-year plan. The aim of the article is to analyze the reason behind spatial layout of the Soviet wood industry during the implementation of the first five-year plan. The study is based on the modernization concept. In our research we conducted mapping of the wood industry by region as well as of planned construction of the industry facilities. It was revealed that the discussion and development of an industrialization project by the Soviet Union party-state and planning agencies in the second half of the 1920s led to increased attention to the wood industry. The sector, which enterprises were concentrated mainly in the north-west, west and central regions of the country, was set the task of increasing the volume of harvesting, export of wood and production to meet the domestic needs and the export needs of wood resources and materials. Due to weak level of development of the wood industry, the scale of these tasks required restructuring of the branch, its inclusion to the centralized economic system, the direction of large capital investments to the development of new forest areas and the construction of enterprises. It was concluded that according to the first five-year plan, the priority principles for the spatial development of the wood industry were the approach of production to forests and seaports, intrasectoral and intersectoral combining. The framework of the industry was meant to strengthen and expand by including forests to the economic turnover and building new enterprises in the European North and the Urals, where the main capital investments were sent, as well as in the Vyatka region, Transcaucasia, Siberia and the Far East.

scholarly journals Scaling up: Renewable energy on Aboriginal lands in north west Australia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brad Riley
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Scaling Up ◽  
Benefit Sharing ◽  
Small Community ◽  
Renewable Energy Resources ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
History Of ◽  
Aboriginal Lands

This paper examines renewable energy developments on Aboriginal lands in North-West Western Australia at three scales. It first examines the literature developing in relation to large scale renewable energy projects and the Native Title Act (1993)Cwlth. It then looks to the history of small community scale standalone systems. Finally, it examines locally adapted approaches to benefit sharing in remote utility owned networks. In doing so this paper foregrounds the importance of Aboriginal agency. It identifies Aboriginal decision making and economic inclusion as being key to policy and project development in the 'scaling up' of a transition to renewable energy resources in the North-West.

Increased frequency of Eurasian double jets linked to summer heat extremes in Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efi Rousi ◽  
Kai Kornhuber ◽  
Goratz Beobide Arsuaga ◽  
Fei Luo ◽  
Dim Coumou
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
The North ◽  
Heat Extremes ◽  
Different Levels

<p>Persistent summer extremes, such as heatwaves and droughts, can have considerable impacts on nature and societies. There is evidence that weather persistence has increased in Europe over the past decades, in association to changes in atmosphere dynamics, but uncertainties remain and the driving forces are not yet well understood. </p><p>Particularly for Europe, the jet stream may affect surface weather significantly by modulating the North Atlantic storm tracks. Here, we examine the hypothesis that high-latitude warming and decreased westerlies in summer result in more double jets, consisting of two distinct maxima of the zonal wind in the upper troposphere, over the Eurasian sector. Previous work has shown that such double jet states are related to persistent blocking-like circulation in the mid-latitudes. </p><p>We adapt a dynamical perspective of heat extreme trends by looking at large scale circulation and in particular, changes in the zonal mean zonal wind in different levels of the upper troposphere. We define clusters of jet states with the use of Self-Organizing Maps and analyze their characteristics. We find an increase in frequency and persistence of a cluster of double jet states for the period 1979-2019 during July-August (in ERA5 reanalysis data). Those states are linked to increased surface temperature and more frequent heatwaves compared to climatology over western, central, and northern Europe. Significant positive double jet anomalies are found to be dominant in the days preceding and/or coinciding with some of the most intense historical heatwaves in Europe, such as those of 2003 and 2018. A linear regression analysis shows that the increase in frequency and persistence of double jet states may explain part of the strong upward trend in heat extremes over these European regions.</p>

scholarly journals Searching for intergalactic star forming regions in Stephan’s Quintet with SITELLE

2019 ◽  
Vol 629 ◽  
pp. A102 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Duarte Puertas ◽  
J. Iglesias-Páramo ◽  
J. M. Vilchez ◽  
L. Drissen ◽  
C. Kehrig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Dwarf Galaxy ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Large Field ◽  
North West ◽  
Star Forming ◽  
Spatially Resolved ◽  
Star Forming Regions ◽  
The North ◽  
Spectral Ranges

Stephan’s Quintet (SQ), the prototypical compact group of galaxies in the local Universe, has been observed with the imaging Fourier transform spectrometer SITELLE, attached to the Canada-France-Hawaii-Telescope, to perform a deep search for intergalactic star-forming emission. In this paper we present the extended ionised gaseous structures detected and analyse their kinematical properties. The large field of view (11′ × 11′) and the spectral ranges of SITELLE have allowed a thorough study of the entire galaxy system, its interaction history and the main properties of the ionised gas. The observations have revealed complex three-dimensional strands in SQ seen for the first time, as well as the spatially resolved velocity field for a new SQ dwarf galaxy (M 82-like) and the detailed spectral map of NGC 7320c, confirming its AGN nature. A total of 175 SQ Hα emission regions have been found, 22 of which present line profiles with at least two kinematical components. We studied 12 zones and 28 sub-zones in the SQ system in order to define plausible physical spatial connections between its different parts in the light of the kinematical information gathered. In this respect we have found five velocity systems in SQ: (i) v = [5600−5900] km s−1 associated with the new intruder and the southern debris region; (ii) v = [5900−6100] km s−1, associated with the north starburst A and south starburst A and the strands connected to these zones; (iii) v = [6100−6600] km s−1, associated with the strands from the large-scale shock region (LSSR); (iv) v = [6600−6800] km s−1, associated with the young tidal tail, the starburst A (SQA), NGC 7319, and the NGC 7319 north lobe; and (v) v = [6800−7000] km s−1, associated with the strands seen connecting LSSR with SQA. We fail to detect ionised gas emission in the old tail, neither in the vicinity of NGC 7318A nor in NGC 7317, and the connection between NGC 7319 north lobe and SQA cannot be confirmed. Conversely, a clear gaseous bridge has been confirmed both spatially and kinematically between the LSSR zone and the NGC 7319 AGN nucleus. Finally, a larger scale, outer rim winding the NGC 7318B/A system clockwise north-west to south-east has been highlighted in continuum and in Hα. This structure may be reminiscent of a sequence of a previously proposed scenario for SQ a sequence of individual interactions.

IV. Sir Charles MacGregor and the Defence of India,1857–1887

1969 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrian Preston
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Scientific Study ◽  
Military Power ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Defence Policy ◽  
Foreign Policies ◽  
National Defence ◽  
Peculiar Nature

If anyone could be claimed the father of the school for the scientific study of Indian defence policy it would undoubtedly be Sir Charles Metcalfe MacGregor. With the re-opening of the Central Asian Question in the early 1860s, it became MacGregor's mission in life completely to recast the Indian defence structure and it counter-insurrectionary role to enable it to undertake large-scale offensive operations against a major European military power. Almost single-handedly, he began to create the machinery within the Indian Army establishment—the special departments, professional institutes, journals and literature—to stimulate a greater awareness of the special and peculiar nature of Indian defence problems that this new role involved, and to encourage an iconoclastic re-examination of prevailing defence assumptions. From MacGregor's groundwork there was logically bound to arise a sense of Indian Army professionalism separate and distinct from that of Great Britain, and the beginnings of the belief that obligations of national defence are inseparable from nationhood. It was MacGregor who first appreciated on the basis of systematic and scientific study that India constituted a vast manpower reservoir, greater than that of Ireland and Egypt together, upon which Britain relied for the prosecution of her imperial, military and foreign policies in the East; that the North-West Frontier presented the only strategic boundary that Britain had to defend; and that the geo-strategic and demographic facts of her existence had made India potentially a great military power bound to adopt a ‵Continental′ military policy and defence structure in many respects parallel to those of the major European military powers.

Linking marine fog variability in Atlantic Canada to changes in large-scale atmospheric and marine features

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Duplessis ◽  
Minghong Zhang ◽  
William Perrie ◽  
George A Isaac ◽  
Rachel Y W Chang
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Atlantic Canada ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The North ◽  
Marine Traffic ◽  
Highly Correlated

<p>Marine and coastal fog forms mainly from the cooling of warm and moist air advected over a colder sea surface. Atlantic Canada is one of the foggiest regions of the world due to the strong temperature contrast between the two oceanic currents in the vicinity. Recurring periods of low visibility notably disrupt off-shore operations and marine traffic, but also land and air transportation. On longer time-scales, marine fog variability also has a significant impact on the global radiative budget. Clouds, including fog, are the greatest source of uncertainty in the current climate projections because of their complex feedback mechanisms. Meteorological records indicate a significant negative trend in the occurrence of foggy conditions over the past six decades at most airports in Atlantic Canada, with large internal variability, including interannual and interdecadal variations. Using the airport observations, reanalysis data and climate model outputs, we investigated the various variabilities on the trend, at interannual and interdecadal scales, and attempted to address what caused these changes in fog frequency. Our results show that the strength and position of the North Atlantic Subtropical High as well as the sea-surface temperature of the cold and warm waters near Atlantic Canada were highly correlated with fog occurrence. We applied the derived fog indices on climate model outputs and projected the fog trends and variability in the different future climate scenarios. The results from this study will be compared with those obtained from other methods and the implications will be discussed.</p>

scholarly journals A community survey of self-reported gastroenteritis undertaken during an outbreak of cryptosporidiosis strongly associated with drinking water after much press interest

2002 ◽  
Vol 128 (3) ◽  
pp. 433-438 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. R. HUNTER ◽  
Q. SYED
Keyword(s):  
Drinking Water ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Diarrhoeal Disease ◽  
Postal Questionnaire ◽  
Recall Bias ◽  
Case Control Studies ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

We took the opportunity provided by a large outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in the North West of England to investigate the potential impact of recall bias on strength of association and on estimates of outbreak size. We conducted a community-based survey of 4 towns within the outbreak area and 4 control towns. A postal questionnaire was sent to 120 homes, chosen at random from the local telephone directory, in each of the 8 towns. Although not statistically significant, the prevalence of self-reported diarrhoeal disease was marginally higher in the control towns than in the outbreak towns. There was a very strong association between self-reported diarrhoea and drinking water consumption in both control and outbreak areas. The impact of recall bias in outbreak investigations is much greater than previously thought. Identification of the cause of outbreaks should not be based solely on case-control studies conducted after the press has reported the outbreak. Such evidence is likely to be unreliable and give falsely significant associations between water consumption and disease.

scholarly journals Sub-national forecasts of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across the UK: a large-scale cross-sectional spatial modelling study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. de Figueiredo
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Imperial College ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Highest Posterior Density

IntroductionThere is evidence of decreasing uptake of routine immunisations in the UK in recent years. As the United Kingdom begins a mass vaccination campaign with a novel COVID-19 vaccine, it is unclear whether refusal of the vaccine in some regions and among some socio-economic groups will pose challenges for achieving herd/community immunity against SARS-CoV-2.MethodsThis study estimates uptake of a COVID-19 at unprecedented spatial resolution across the UK using a large-scale survey and state-of-the-art Bayesian statistical methods for estimating public opinion. Between 24 September and 14 October 2020, 17,684 individuals are surveyed in a cross-sectional online survey design. Regions and socio-economic groups who may be more resistant towards a new vaccine are identified using multilevel regression and poststratification. Gibbs sampling is used for Bayesian model inference, with uncertainty in parameter estimates captured via 95% highest posterior density intervals.FindingsThis study predicts that clusters of non-vaccinators will likely emerge in many regions across the UK, most notably in London (which has 13 of the 20 lowest ranking regions) and the North West (which has four, including Greater Manchester and Liverpool). Males are much more likely to state intent to accept the vaccine than females (OR 1·59, 1·47 to 1·73); while Muslims are less likely than atheists / agnostics (0·75, 0·57 to 0·96), Black / Black British are less likely than Whites (0·47, 0·38 to 0·60), and Polish speakers (0·45, 0·31 to 0·63) are less likely than those who primarily speak English or Welsh. Across the UK, 8·7% (8·2 to 9·2%) state that they would “definitely not” accept a vaccine, but less than half (47·5%, 46·5 to 48·5%) say they would “definitely” accept a COVID-19 vaccine, with a substantial proportion unsure.InterpretationThe study findings are extremely important in the context of achieving herd/community immunity. Low predicted acceptance rates in parts of London and the North West are of particular concern as many of these regions have among the highest rates of COVID-19 infection across the UK: low vaccine uptake in these regions may result in disease “hotspots” that amplify the spread of the disease and require increases in vaccination levels in adjacent regions to provide nationwide herd/community immunity. It is therefore extremely important to identify such regions, and to engage with communities within them in advance of vaccination rollout to the population at large. Encouragingly, intent to accept a COVID-19 vaccine is higher among older age-groups, who are among the first to receive a COVID-19 vaccine.Declaration of InterestsThe Author is involved in Vaccine Confidence Project collaborative grants with GlaxoSmithKline outside the submitted work.FundingThis project was funded by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Fund.Ethical ApprovalApproval for this study was obtained via the Imperial College Research Ethics Committee on 24 July 2020 with reference 20IC6133.

PESA production and development review 2009

2010 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 121
Author(s):  
Geoff Humphreys
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Hydrocarbon Production ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Total Capacity ◽  
Skills Shortages

Australian hydrocarbon production reached record levels in 2009 due to strong growth in production of LNG from the North West Shelf Venture. Domestic gas production also reached record levels. Coal seam gas production continued to grow, with the continuing development of existing fields and the development of the Kenya and Talinga projects in Queensland. Two new conventional gas projects also came into production: Blacktip in the Timor Sea and Longtom in the Gippsland Basin. However oil production was below that in the previous year, reflecting natural field decline and the absence of large scale projects reaching production. The project sanction highlight of the year was the final investment decision on the $43 billion Gorgon LNG project. This project will comprise three LNG trains with total capacity of 15 million tonnes per annum plus a domestic gas plant. The first gas from this project is planned for 2014. Eight other potential LNG projects are in various stages of front end engineering and design, most targeting final investment decisions in 2010 or 2011. The pipeline of committed and potential LNG projects has a combined value estimated to be well over $100 billion. These projects have the potential to significantly increase Australian LNG production over the next five to ten years. In the near term the start-up of the Van Gogh, Pyrenees and Turrum oil projects are expected to provide some respite from the decline in Australian oil production. Cost estimates for new projects are again escalating and skills shortages in all parts of the project delivery chain threaten the ability to deliver all of the projects under consideration.

Jellyfish abundance and climatic variation: contrasting responses in oceanographically distinct regions of the North Sea, and possible implications for fisheries

2005 ◽  
Vol 85 (3) ◽  
pp. 435-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher P. Lynam ◽  
Stephen J. Hay ◽  
Andrew S. Brierley
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Species Abundance ◽  
Current Strength ◽  
Aurelia Aurita ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Negative Relationships

Jellyfish medusae prey on zooplankton and may impact fish recruitment both directly (top-down control) and indirectly (through competition). Abundances of Aurelia aurita, Cyanea lamarckii and Cyanea capillata medusae (Scyphozoa) in the North Sea appear to be linked to large-scale inter-annual climatic change, as quantified by the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), the Barents Sea-Ice Index (BSII) and changes in the latitude of the Gulf Stream North Wall (GSNW). Hydroclimatic forcing may thus be an important factor influencing the abundance of gelatinous zooplankton and may modulate the scale of any ecosystem impact of jellyfish. The population responses are probably also affected by local variability in the environment manifested in intra-annual changes in temperature, salinity, current strength/direction and prey abundance. Aurelia aurita and C. lamarckii in the north-west and south-east North Sea exhibited contrasting relationships to change in the NAOI and BSII: north of Scotland, where the North Sea borders the Atlantic, positive relationships were evident between the abundance of scyphomedusae (data from 1974 to 1986, except 1975) and the indices; whereas west of northern Denmark, a region much less affected by Atlantic inflow, negative relationships were found (data from 1973 to 1983, except 1974). Weaker negative relationships with the NAOI were also found in an intermediate region, east of Scotland, for the abundance of A. aurita and C. capillata medusae (1971 to 1982). East of Shetland, the abundance of jellyfish was not correlated directly with the NAOI but, in contrast to all other regions, the abundances of A. aurita and C. lamarckii (1971 to 1986, not 1984) were found to correlate negatively with changes in the GSNW, which itself was significantly positively correlated to the NAOI with a two year lag. On this evidence, we suggest that, for jellyfish, there exist three regions of the North Sea with distinct environmental processes governing species abundance: one north of Scotland, another east of Shetland, and a more southerly group (i.e. east of Scotland and west of northern Denmark). Impacts by jellyfish are likely to vary regionally, and ecosystem management may benefit from considering this spatial variability.

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