scholarly journals Sub-national forecasts of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across the UK: a large-scale cross-sectional spatial modelling study

Author(s):  
A. de Figueiredo

IntroductionThere is evidence of decreasing uptake of routine immunisations in the UK in recent years. As the United Kingdom begins a mass vaccination campaign with a novel COVID-19 vaccine, it is unclear whether refusal of the vaccine in some regions and among some socio-economic groups will pose challenges for achieving herd/community immunity against SARS-CoV-2.MethodsThis study estimates uptake of a COVID-19 at unprecedented spatial resolution across the UK using a large-scale survey and state-of-the-art Bayesian statistical methods for estimating public opinion. Between 24 September and 14 October 2020, 17,684 individuals are surveyed in a cross-sectional online survey design. Regions and socio-economic groups who may be more resistant towards a new vaccine are identified using multilevel regression and poststratification. Gibbs sampling is used for Bayesian model inference, with uncertainty in parameter estimates captured via 95% highest posterior density intervals.FindingsThis study predicts that clusters of non-vaccinators will likely emerge in many regions across the UK, most notably in London (which has 13 of the 20 lowest ranking regions) and the North West (which has four, including Greater Manchester and Liverpool). Males are much more likely to state intent to accept the vaccine than females (OR 1·59, 1·47 to 1·73); while Muslims are less likely than atheists / agnostics (0·75, 0·57 to 0·96), Black / Black British are less likely than Whites (0·47, 0·38 to 0·60), and Polish speakers (0·45, 0·31 to 0·63) are less likely than those who primarily speak English or Welsh. Across the UK, 8·7% (8·2 to 9·2%) state that they would “definitely not” accept a vaccine, but less than half (47·5%, 46·5 to 48·5%) say they would “definitely” accept a COVID-19 vaccine, with a substantial proportion unsure.InterpretationThe study findings are extremely important in the context of achieving herd/community immunity. Low predicted acceptance rates in parts of London and the North West are of particular concern as many of these regions have among the highest rates of COVID-19 infection across the UK: low vaccine uptake in these regions may result in disease “hotspots” that amplify the spread of the disease and require increases in vaccination levels in adjacent regions to provide nationwide herd/community immunity. It is therefore extremely important to identify such regions, and to engage with communities within them in advance of vaccination rollout to the population at large. Encouragingly, intent to accept a COVID-19 vaccine is higher among older age-groups, who are among the first to receive a COVID-19 vaccine.Declaration of InterestsThe Author is involved in Vaccine Confidence Project collaborative grants with GlaxoSmithKline outside the submitted work.FundingThis project was funded by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Fund.Ethical ApprovalApproval for this study was obtained via the Imperial College Research Ethics Committee on 24 July 2020 with reference 20IC6133.

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (12) ◽  
pp. 822.2-822
Author(s):  
Haroon Rashid ◽  
Nick Dobbin ◽  
Smarak Mishra

Aims/Objectives/BackgroundIt is necessary for those working in emergency departments to have adequate knowledge and delivery of current sport-related concussion (SRC) management protocols including identifying patients with concussion, managing their symptoms, giving appropriate advice with regards to return to play and referring those at risk of further injuries to an appropriate service.This study aimed to establish the current practice, knowledge base and views towards SRC management of emergency department clinicians who have trained or are currently training in emergency medicine in the North West of England.Methods/DesignThis study was a multi centre, cross sectional study of 111 emergency department clinicians (EDCs) working across 15 centres in the North West of England A 21 item online survey was issued. The key questions focused on the advice given to patients on discharge, the importance of cognitive and physical rest, and knowledge of GRTP.Results/ConclusionsApproximately, 37% of the population responded to the invitation, with 111 responses included in this study. Only 27% of total respondents were aware of the Consensus Statements of Concussion in Sport guidelines, whilst 45% were unaware of any SRC guidelines. 57% of respondents had heard of a graded return to play (GRTP) protocol. Physical rest following an SRC was advised by 95% of respondents with 61% advising concomitant cognitive rest and 42% of respondents providing specific written advice. 90% of clinicians had not received any SRC training.There is a lack of knowledge amongst EDCs in the North West of England in managing and providing discharge advice according to recommendations for patients with SRC. This is likely a consequence of the limited training that these clinicians have received in managing SRC and suggests further work needs to be undertaken to educate EDCs on current SRC management guidance to ensure appropriate care and discharge advice is given to patients.


2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-18
Author(s):  
S.O. Sam-Wobo ◽  
C.N. Ukaga ◽  
D. Pam ◽  
I.C.J. Omalu ◽  
A. Mogaji ◽  
...  

The knowledge, attitude, and practices (KAP) people hold towards a new disease could play a major role in the way they accept measures put in place to curb its spread as Symptoms of COVID-19 are similar to those of other endemic diseases, especially malaria. A cross-sectional KAP/symptomatology online survey was conducted from August –September 2020 across the six geopolitical regions of Nigeria. Data were entered into Google sheets and analyses performed using SPSS version 20. From the 900 respondents, majority 66% were from the North west while 1.2% were from the North east. By sex and age distribution, 69% were males while females were 31%. Age group 15-25 years were more (32.22%) and the least (11%) among respondents were above 65years. Majority of respondents (57.89%), had not experienced symptoms associated with COVID-19 in the past 3 months before this study, however 96.0% of respondents have heard about COVID19 prior the time of survey. Hyperthemia (high fever) 636(70.67%) was accurately recognized by respondents as the most common symptoms. Other highly mentioned symptoms were dry or chesty cough, shortness of breath, catarrh and cough, difficulty in breathing at night, painful breathing, and weakness or tiredness, with significant differences in the responses recorded for the recognition of COVID-19 symptoms across the geopolitical zones (p=0.00). In terms of preventive measures, 771(85.67%) respondents perceive regular hand washing with soap as the major preventive measure for COVID19 infection. This was followed by the usage of face mask 659(73.22%). Also, 794(88.22%) respondents accurately recognized hyperthemia as the most  common overlapping symptom between malaria and COVID-19. Other highly mentioned overlapping symptoms were weakness or tiredness 591(65.67%), loss of appetite 504 (56.00%), loss of taste and smell 388(43.11%), and catarrh and cough 313(34.78%). We conclude that awareness of COVID-19 symptoms is fairly high in the country. Awareness strategies should target those with limited access to information on the disease. Keywords: COVID-19, Knowledge, Symptoms, Preventive measures


BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. e041514
Author(s):  
Lucio D'Anna ◽  
Ambreen Sheikh ◽  
Raj Bathula ◽  
Salwa Elmamoun ◽  
Adelaide Oppong ◽  
...  

ObjectiveThe COVID-19 pandemic is having major implications for stroke care with a documented significant fall in hospital acute stroke admissions. We investigated whether COVID-19 has resulted in a decreased number of referrals to the transient ischaemic attack (TIA) clinics across the North West London region.Setting and designAll the TIA clinical leads of the North West London region received an invitation by email to participate in an online survey in May 2020. The survey questionnaire aimed to assess the number of patients with suspected TIA consecutively referred to each of the TIA clinics of the North West London region between 1 March and 30 April 2020, the COVID-19 period, and between 1 March and 30 April 2019.ResultsWe had a response rate of 100%. During the COVID-19 period, the TIA clinics of the North West London region received 440 referrals compared with 616 referrals received between 1 March and 30 April 2019 with a fall in the number of the referrals by 28.6%. In April 2020 compared with April 2019, the number of the referrals declined by 40.1%.ConclusionsThis multicentre analysis documented a significant reduction in the number of patients referred with suspected TIA to the specialised rapid access outpatient clinics in the North West London region during the COVID-19 pandemic. Future studies are needed to confirm our findings and to better characterise the incidence of cerebrovascular disease during the COVID-19 pandemic.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. e000942
Author(s):  
Oliver G P Lawton ◽  
Sarah A Lawton ◽  
Lisa Dikomitis ◽  
Joanne Protheroe ◽  
Joanne Smith ◽  
...  

COVID-19 has significantly impacted young people’s lives yet little is known about the COVID-19 related sources of information they access. We performed a cross-sectional survey of pupils (11–16 years) in North Staffordshire, UK. 408 (23%) pupils responded to an online survey emailed to them by their school. Descriptive statistics were used to summarise the data. Social media, accessed by 68%, played a significant role in the provision of information, despite it not being considered trustworthy. 89% felt that COVID-19 had negatively affected their education. Gaps in the provision of information on COVID-19 have been identified.


Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 765
Author(s):  
Amel Ahmed Fayed ◽  
Abeer Salem Al Shahrani ◽  
Leenah Tawfiq Almanea ◽  
Nardeen Ibrahim Alsweed ◽  
Layla Mohammed Almarzoug ◽  
...  

This study aimed to assess the willingness to receive the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and seasonal influenza vaccines and vaccine uptake during the early stage of the national vaccination campaign in Saudi Arabia. A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among adult Saudis between 20 January and 20 March 2021. The questionnaire addressed vaccine hesitancy, perceived risk, willingness, and vaccine uptake. Approximately 39% of the participants expressed vaccine hesitancy, and 29.8% and 24% felt highly vulnerable to contracting COVID-19 and seasonal influenza, respectively. The majority (59.5%) were willing to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, although only 31.7% were willing to receive the flu vaccine. Adjusted analysis showed that vaccine hesitancy (OR 0.34, 95% CI 0.27–0.43) and the perception of being at high risk (OR 2.78, 95% CI 1.68–4.60) independently affected the intention to be vaccinated. Vaccine hesitancy was similar among those who were willing to be vaccinated (29.8%) and those who had already been vaccinated (33.1%). The perceived risk was significantly higher among those who had been vaccinated (48.1%) than among those who were willing to be vaccinated but had not yet been vaccinated (29.1%). In conclusion, the acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccine in Saudi Arabia is high. Saudis who received the vaccine had a similar level of vaccine hesitancy and a higher level of perceived risk.


BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. e043397
Author(s):  
Austen El-Osta ◽  
Aos Alaa ◽  
Iman Webber ◽  
Eva Riboli Sasco ◽  
Emmanouil Bagkeris ◽  
...  

ObjectiveInvestigate the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on feelings of loneliness and social isolation in parents of school-age children.DesignCross-sectional online survey of parents of primary and secondary school-age children.SettingCommunity setting.Participants1214 parents of school-age children in the UK.MethodsAn online survey explored the impact of lockdown on the mental health of parents with school-age children, and in particular about feelings of social isolation and loneliness. Associations between the UCLA Three-Item Loneliness Scale (UCLATILS), the Direct Measure of Loneliness (DMOL) and the characteristics of the study participants were assessed using ordinal logistic regression models.Main outcome measuresSelf-reported measures of social isolation and loneliness using UCLATILS and DMOL.ResultsHalf of respondents felt they lacked companionship, 45% had feelings of being left out, 58% felt isolated and 46% felt lonely during the first 100 days of lockdown. The factors that were associated with higher levels of loneliness on UCLATILS were female gender, parenting a child with special needs, lack of a dedicated space for distance learning, disruption of sleep patterns and low levels of physical activity during the lockdown. Factors associated with a higher DMOL were female gender, single parenting, parenting a child with special needs, unemployment, low physical activity, lack of a dedicated study space and disruption of sleep patterns during the lockdown.ConclusionsThe COVID-19 lockdown has increased feelings of social isolation and loneliness among parents of school-age children. The sustained adoption of two modifiable health-seeking lifestyle behaviours (increased levels of physical activity and the maintenance of good sleep hygiene practices) wmay help reduce feelings of social isolation and loneliness during lockdown.


Healthcare ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 735
Author(s):  
Schoultz Mariyana ◽  
Leung Janni ◽  
Bonsaksen Tore ◽  
Ruffolo Mary ◽  
Thygesen Hilde ◽  
...  

Background: Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the strict national policies regarding social distancing behavior in Europe, America and Australia, people became reliant on social media as a means for gathering information and as a tool for staying connected to family, friends and work. This is the first trans-national study exploring the qualitative experiences and challenges of using social media while in lockdown or shelter-in-place during the current pandemic. Methods: This study was part of a wider cross-sectional online survey conducted in Norway, the UK, USA and Australia during April/May 2020. The manuscript reports on the qualitative free-text component of the study asking about the challenges of social media users during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK, USA and Australia. A total of 1991 responses were included in the analysis. Thematic analysis was conducted independently by two researchers. Results: Three overarching themes identified were: Emotional/Mental Health, Information and Being Connected. Participants experienced that using social media during the pandemic amplified anxiety, depression, fear, panic, anger, frustration and loneliness. They felt that there was information overload and social media was full of misleading or polarized opinions which were difficult to switch off. Nonetheless, participants also thought that there was an urge for connection and learning, which was positive and stressful at the same time. Conclusion: Using social media while in a shelter-in-place or lockdown could have a negative impact on the emotional and mental health of some of the population. To support policy and practice in strengthening mental health care in the community, social media could be used to deliver practical advice on coping and stress management. Communication with the public should be strengthened by unambiguous and clear messages and clear communication pathways. We should be looking at alternative ways of staying connected.


2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 928.2-929
Author(s):  
S. Juman ◽  
T. David ◽  
L. Gray ◽  
R. Hamad ◽  
S. Horton ◽  
...  

Background:Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is widely used in the management of rheumatoid arthritis and connective tissue disease. The prevalence of retinopathy in patients taking long-term HCQ is approximately 7.5%, increasing to 20-50% after 20 years of therapy. Hydroxychloroquine prescribed at ≤5 mg/kg poses a toxicity risk of <1% up to five years and <2% up to ten years, but increases sharply to almost 20% after 20 years. Risk factors for retinopathy include doses >5mg/kg/day, concomitant tamoxifen or chloroquine use and renal impairment. The UK Royal College of Ophthalmologists (RCOphth) 2018 guidelines for HCQ screening recommend optimal treatment dosage and timing for both baseline and follow-up ophthalmology review for patients on HCQ, with the aim of preventing iatrogenic visual loss. This is similar to recommendations made by the American Academy of Ophthalmology (2016).Objectives:To determine adherence to the RCOphth guidelines for HCQ screening within the Rheumatology departments in the North-West of the UK.Methods:Data for patients established on HCQ and those initiated on HCQ therapy were collected over a 7 week period from 9 Rheumatology departments.Results:473 patients were included of which 56 (12%) were new starters and 417 (88%) were already established on HCQ. 79% of the patients were female, with median ages of 60.5 and 57 years for new and established patients respectively. The median (IQR) weight for new starters was 71 (27.9) kg and for established patients, 74 (24.7) kg.20% of new starters exceeded 5mg/kg daily HCQ dose. 16% were identified as high risk (9% had previously taken chloroquine, 5% had an eGFR <60ml/min/m2and 2% had retinal co-pathology). Of the high-risk group, 44% were taking <5mg/kg. In total, 36% of new starters were referred for a formal baseline Ophthalmology review.In the established patients, 74% were taking ≤5mg/kg/day HCQ dose and 16% were categorized as high risk (10% had an eGFR less than 60ml/min/m2, 3% had previous chloroquine or tamoxifen use and 2% had retinal co-pathology). In the high-risk group, 75% were not referred for spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). 41% of patients established on HCQ for <5 years, and 33% of patients on HCQ for >5 years were not referred for SD-OCT. Reasons for not referring included; awaiting 5 year review, previous screening already performed and optician review advised.Since the introduction of the RCOphth guidelines, 29% patients already established on HCQ had an alteration in the dosage of HCQ in accordance with the guidelines. In the high-risk group, 16% were not on the recommended HCQ dose.Conclusion:This audit demonstrates inconsistencies in adherence to the RCOphth guidelines for HCQ prescribing and ophthalmology screening within Rheumatology departments in the North-West of the UK for both new starters and established patients. Plans to improve this include wider dissemination of the guidelines to Rheumatology departments and strict service level agreements with ophthalmology teams to help optimize HCQ prescribing and screening for retinopathy.Acknowledgments:Drs. S Jones, E MacPhie, A Madan, L Coates & Prof L Teh. Co-1st author, T David.Disclosure of Interests:None declared


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