scholarly journals A community survey of self-reported gastroenteritis undertaken during an outbreak of cryptosporidiosis strongly associated with drinking water after much press interest

2002 ◽  
Vol 128 (3) ◽  
pp. 433-438 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. R. HUNTER ◽  
Q. SYED
Keyword(s):  
Drinking Water ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Diarrhoeal Disease ◽  
Postal Questionnaire ◽  
Recall Bias ◽  
Case Control Studies ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

We took the opportunity provided by a large outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in the North West of England to investigate the potential impact of recall bias on strength of association and on estimates of outbreak size. We conducted a community-based survey of 4 towns within the outbreak area and 4 control towns. A postal questionnaire was sent to 120 homes, chosen at random from the local telephone directory, in each of the 8 towns. Although not statistically significant, the prevalence of self-reported diarrhoeal disease was marginally higher in the control towns than in the outbreak towns. There was a very strong association between self-reported diarrhoea and drinking water consumption in both control and outbreak areas. The impact of recall bias in outbreak investigations is much greater than previously thought. Identification of the cause of outbreaks should not be based solely on case-control studies conducted after the press has reported the outbreak. Such evidence is likely to be unreliable and give falsely significant associations between water consumption and disease.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of prior immunity, case misclassification and bias on case-control studies in the investigation of outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis

2000 ◽  
Vol 125 (3) ◽  
pp. 713-718 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. R. HUNTER
Keyword(s):  
Water Consumption ◽  
The United States ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Recall Bias ◽  
Case Control Studies ◽  
Common Cause ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Impact

Cryptosporidiosis is the most common cause of outbreaks of disease linked to mains water supply in the United Kingdom and the second commonest in the United States. Recent evidence has suggested that prior population immunity may have an impact on the epidemiology of waterborne outbreaks and in particular prior immunity may reduce the power of case-control studies for demonstrating association between disease and water consumption behaviour. However, the degree of impact of prior immunity on the power of epidemiological studies is not yet clear. This paper reports the results of some simple mathematical models of outbreaks of waterborne disease in populations with varying levels of immunity due to prior water and non-water exposure. The basic outbreak model was run on a spreadsheet. To determine the impact of prior immunity on case-control studies, further analysis was done using a Monte Carlo method to simulate sampling from cases and controls. It was found that moderate degrees of prior immunity due to water associated disease could markedly reduce the relative risk of water consumption on illness in waterborne outbreaks. In turn this would reduce the power of case-control studies. In addition, this model was used to demonstrate the impact of case misclassification and recall bias on case-control studies. Again it was found that within the model, the results of case-control studies could be significantly affected by both these sources of error. Anyone conducting epidemiological investigations of potentially waterborne outbreaks of disease should be aware of the epidemiological problems. Mistakes from case-control studies will be minimized if the outbreak team pays considerable attention to the descriptive phase of the investigation and if case-control studies are conducted as soon as possible after an outbreak is detected.

Water Quality Violations and Avoidance Behavior: Evidence from Bottled Water Consumption

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 448-453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Graff Zivin ◽  
Matthew Neidell ◽  
Wolfram Schlenker
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Avoidance Behavior ◽  
Bottled Water ◽  
Poor Water Quality ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

We examine the impact of poor water quality on avoidance behavior by estimating the change in bottled water purchases in response to drinking water violations. Using data from a national grocery chain matched with water quality violations, we find an increase in bottled water sales of 22 percent from violations due to microorganisms and 17 percent from violations due to elements and chemicals. Back-of-the envelope calculations yield costs of avoidance behavior at roughly $60 million for all nationwide violations in 2005, which likely reflects a significant understatement of the total willingness to pay to eliminate violations.

scholarly journals Effect of tropical cyclones on the Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange observed using satellite observations over north Indian Ocean

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Venkat Ratnam ◽  
S. Ravindra Babu ◽  
S. S. Das ◽  
Ghouse Basha ◽  
B. V. Krishnamurthy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Tropical cyclones play an important role in modifying the tropopause structure and dynamics as well as stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) process in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) region. In the present study, the impact of cyclones that occurred over the North Indian Ocean during 2007–2013 on the STE process is quantified using satellite observations. Tropopause characteristics during cyclones are obtained from the Global Positioning System (GPS) Radio Occultation (RO) measurements and ozone and water vapor concentrations in UTLS region are obtained from Aura-Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite observations. The effect of cyclones on the tropopause parameters is observed to be more prominent within 500 km from the centre of cyclone. In our earlier study we have observed decrease (increase) in the tropopause altitude (temperature) up to 0.6 km (3 K) and the convective outflow level increased up to 2 km. This change leads to a total increase in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) thickness of 3 km within the 500 km from the centre of cyclone. Interestingly, an enhancement in the ozone mixing ratio in the upper troposphere is clearly noticed within 500 km from cyclone centre whereas the enhancement in the water vapor in the lower stratosphere is more significant on south-east side extending from 500–1000 km away from the cyclone centre. We estimated the cross-tropopause mass flux for different intensities of cyclones and found that the mean flux from stratosphere to troposphere for cyclonic stroms is 0.05 ± 0.29 × 10−3 kg m−2 and for very severe cyclonic stroms it is 0.5 ± 1.07 × 10−3 kg m−2. More downward flux is noticed in the north-west and south-west side of the cyclone centre. These results indicate that the cyclones have significant impact in effecting the tropopause structure, ozone and water vapour budget and consequentially the STE in the UTLS region.

scholarly journals 'Greenfields' and 'Brownfields': automotive industrial development in the UK and in Portugal

Finisterra ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 31 (62) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Pike ◽  
Mário Vale
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Policy ◽  
Automobile Industry ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Development Strategies ◽  
North West ◽  
Demonstration Effect ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

The industrial policy in the UK and in Portugal, as in most EU countries, seeks to attract new investment capacity, to create jobs and to promote the impact of the so-called "demonstration efect" of "greenfield" development strategies pursued in the new plants of inward investors on existing or "brownfield" plants. This industrial policy focus is particularly evident in the automobile industry.This paper compares the industrial policy oriented towards the automobile industry in the UK and in Portugal. Two recent "greenfield" investments are analised: Nissan in the North-East region (UK) and Ford/VW in the Setúbal Peninsula (Portugal), as well as three "brownfield" plants: Ford Halewood and GM Vauxhall Ellesmere Port in the North-West region (UK) and Renault in Setúbal (Portugal). The first part starts with a discussion of industrial policy in the automobile sector, the role of "greenfield" development strategies and the "demonstration effect" on "brownfield" plants. Then, the limits of new inward investment are pointed out, basically their problems and restrictions. Afterwards, the structural barriers to the "demonstration effect" within "brownfield" plants are outlined and some possabilities for alternative "brownfield" development strategies are presented.

Pashtun and Punjabi Taliban

Pakistan ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 131-144
Author(s):  
Mariam Abou Zahab
Keyword(s):  
North West ◽  
Competition And Cooperation ◽  
Sectarian Violence ◽  
The North ◽  
North West Frontier Province ◽  
Tribal Areas ◽  
The Impact

This chapter attempts to analyse the dynamics of the Pashtun–Punjabi nexus and the areas of competition and cooperation between Sunni sectarian groups and the Pakistani Taliban. It outlines the links between Sunni sectarian groups and the Afghan Taliban, the impact of the collapse of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and the implications of the relocation of Punjabi jihadi/sectarian groups in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). It also focuses on the consequences of the storming of Islamabad's Lal Masjid in July 2007, and it investigates the re-emergence of sectarian groups in Karachi and in the Punjab and its implications for Pakistan. The Punjab and Karachi have been the primary hubs of sectarian violence in Pakistan since the 1980s, but in the post-9/11 environment the Sunni-Shia conflict has assumed a new dimension.

scholarly journals Impacts of some meteorological parameters on the SO2 concentrations in the city of Obrenovac, Serbia

2010 ◽  
Vol 75 (5) ◽  
pp. 703-715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Snezana Nenadovic ◽  
Ljiljana Matovic ◽  
Misko Milanovic ◽  
Sava Janicevic ◽  
Jasmina Grbovic-Novakovic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sulfur Dioxide ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
North West ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North ◽  
West Part ◽  
Measuring Site ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

In this paper, the impacts of some meteorological parameters on the SO2 concentrations in the City of Obrenovac are presented. The City of Obrenovac is located in the north-west part of Serbia on the banks of the River Sava. The observed source emission, the power plants TENT A and TENT B are situated on the bank of the Sava River in the vicinity of Obrenovac. During the period from January to November 2006, the concentrations of sulfur dioxide in the air at 4 monitoring sites in Obrenovac were measured. It was noticed that the maximal measured daily concentrations of sulfur dioxide ranged from 1 ?g/m3 (16th November, 2006) to 98 ?g/m3 (29th January 2006) and lie under the maximal allowed concentration value according to the Serbian Law on Environmental Protection. The measured sulfur dioxide concentrations mostly showed characteristics usual for a daily acidification sulfur dioxide cycle, excluding the specificities influenced by the measuring site itself. Sulfur dioxide transport was recorded at increased wind speeds, primarily from the southeast direction. Based on the impact of meteorological parameters on the sulfur dioxide concentration, a validation of the monitoring sites was also performed from the aspect of their representivity.

Estimation of uncertainties in fault lateral positioning on 3D PSDM seismic image: an example from the North West Shelf

2016 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 556
Author(s):  
Sergey Birdus ◽  
Vincent Ganivet ◽  
Alexey Artemov ◽  
Ray Teakle ◽  
Paul Phythian
Keyword(s):  
Practical Interest ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
Lateral Position ◽  
Second Step ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Seismic Image ◽  
Estimation Of Uncertainties ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Lateral Positioning

This extended abstract presents a two-step sequence to estimate uncertainties in lateral positioning of fault planes on 3D PSDM (pre-stack depth migration) seismic images. This analysis can be applied to any localised detail on a seismic image but, in the majority of geological settings, it is most important for the faults. The first step provides an approximate evaluation of what causes the uncertainties, how the uncertainties are distributed in a 3D space, and what to expect within target zones. The authors assume that every complex detail within a 3D PSDM velocity model causes some uncertainties to the seismic image below. Thus, the uncertainties at a target level depend on the complexity of the overburden and the seismic acquisition parameters. At this step a qualitative 3D volume of lateral fault position uncertainties is created. In the second step the authors focus on a single fault of practical interest. Based on the results of the first step, the authors modify the existing 3D PSDM anisotropic velocity model by introducing additional anomalies that cause maximal changes to the lateral position of the fault on seismic image. Then the authors iteratively re-migrate a small sub-volume around the fault and check the PSDM images and residual moveout. The objective is to find out how far the velocity variations can move the image of the fault and still satisfy available seismic data. The second step gives more reliable quantitative estimations of the impact of velocity on fault positioning. A real multi-azimuth 3D seismic dataset from the North West Shelf is used to illustrate this sequence.

scholarly journals The impact of sea-level rise on tidal characteristics around Australia

Ocean Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 147-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Harker ◽  
J. A. Mattias Green ◽  
Michael Schindelegger ◽  
Sophie-Berenice Wilmes
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Open Boundary ◽  
Open Boundary Conditions ◽  
Tidal Dissipation ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Tidal Changes ◽  
Tidal Characteristics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. An established tidal model, validated for present-day conditions, is used to investigate the effect of large levels of sea-level rise (SLR) on tidal characteristics around Australasia. SLR is implemented through a uniform depth increase across the model domain, with a comparison between the implementation of coastal defences or allowing low-lying land to flood. The complex spatial response of the semi-diurnal M2 constituent does not appear to be linear with the imposed SLR. The most predominant features of this response are the generation of new amphidromic systems within the Gulf of Carpentaria and large-amplitude changes in the Arafura Sea, to the north of Australia, and within embayments along Australia's north-west coast. Dissipation from M2 notably decreases along north-west Australia but is enhanced around New Zealand and the island chains to the north. The diurnal constituent, K1, is found to decrease in amplitude in the Gulf of Carpentaria when flooding is allowed. Coastal flooding has a profound impact on the response of tidal amplitudes to SLR by creating local regions of increased tidal dissipation and altering the coastal topography. Our results also highlight the necessity for regional models to use correct open boundary conditions reflecting the global tidal changes in response to SLR.

scholarly journals Exploring the Role of Advertising Types on Improving the Water Consumption Behavior: An Application of Integrated Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy VIKOR Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amir Hossein Salimi ◽  
Amir Noori ◽  
Hossein Bonakdari ◽  
Jafar Masoompour Samakosh ◽  
Ehsan Sharifi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drinking Water ◽  
Consumer Behavior ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Fuzzy Ahp ◽  
Cluster Method ◽  
Consumption Pattern ◽  
Fuzzy Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Vikor ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, many cities have suffered from a shortage of drinking water, mainly due to population growth. Hence, the desire to curb undue water consumption through the identification of the main factors affecting consumer behavior has become very important in managing drinking water supplies. Modifying the consumption pattern means institutionalizing of a sustainable culture in water consumption among consumers and the identification of the main criteria affecting their behavior. In 2018, a survey was applied to examine the role of mass media advertising in modifying the water consumption pattern in Iran. An integration of fuzzy AHP and fuzzy VIKOR was proposed based on group decision making, and fuzzy trapezoidal sets used to model linguistic variables and to deal with uncertainty in opinions. We devised and conducted a questionnaire with 24 main criteria and 8 sub-criteria to measure the impact of advertising on water consumption. The case study population in this study included all urban households over 15 cities of Iran. A total of 5630 questionnaires were distributed among the various populations with cluster method. Then, by analyzing the results, advertisements using animation had the highest impact on consumer behavior, among the available alternatives, and could play a significant role in modifying the water consumption pattern. Additionally, a fuzzy evaluation technique is performed to validate the result of the applied method. Subsequently, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the stability of the final ranking. Finally, the prioritization results of the types of advertising by the proposed method were compared with the results of the fuzzy AHP method.

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