Precipitation Nowcasting using Deep Neural Network

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Chafik Bakey ◽  
Mathieu Serrurier
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Management ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Anticipation Time ◽  
Memory Network ◽  
Convolutional Encoder

<p>Precipitation nowcasting is the prediction of the future precipitation rate in a given geographical region with an anticipation time of a few hours at most. It is of great importance for weather forecast users, for activitites ranging from outdoor activities and sports competitions to airport traffic management. In contrast to long-term precipitation forecasts which are traditionally obtained from numerical weather prediction models, precipitation nowcasting needs to be very fast. It is therefore more challenging to obtain because of this time constraint. Recently, many machine learning based methods had been proposed. In this work, we develop an original deep learning approach. We formulate precipitation nowcasting issue as a video prediction problem where both input and prediction target are image sequences. The proposed model combines a Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM) with a convolutional encoder-decoder network (U-net). Experiments show that our method captures spatiotemporal correlations and yields meaningful forecasts</p>

scholarly journals A Novel LSTM Model with Interaction Dual Attention for Radar Echo Extrapolation

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 164
Author(s):  
Chuyao Luo ◽  
Xutao Li ◽  
Yongliang Wen ◽  
Yunming Ye ◽  
Xiaofeng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Radar Echo ◽  
Hidden States ◽  
Better Than

The task of precipitation nowcasting is significant in the operational weather forecast. The radar echo map extrapolation plays a vital role in this task. Recently, deep learning techniques such as Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network (ConvRNN) models have been designed to solve the task. These models, albeit performing much better than conventional optical flow based approaches, suffer from a common problem of underestimating the high echo value parts. The drawback is fatal to precipitation nowcasting, as the parts often lead to heavy rains that may cause natural disasters. In this paper, we propose a novel interaction dual attention long short-term memory (IDA-LSTM) model to address the drawback. In the method, an interaction framework is developed for the ConvRNN unit to fully exploit the short-term context information by constructing a serial of coupled convolutions on the input and hidden states. Moreover, a dual attention mechanism on channels and positions is developed to recall the forgotten information in the long term. Comprehensive experiments have been conducted on CIKM AnalytiCup 2017 data sets, and the results show the effectiveness of the IDA-LSTM in addressing the underestimation drawback. The extrapolation performance of IDA-LSTM is superior to that of the state-of-the-art methods.

Probabilistic model predictive control for extended prediction horizons

2021 ◽  
Vol 69 (9) ◽  
pp. 759-770
Author(s):  
Tim Brüdigam ◽  
Johannes Teutsch ◽  
Dirk Wollherr ◽  
Marion Leibold ◽  
Martin Buss
Keyword(s):  
Model Predictive Control ◽  
Predictive Control ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Computational Effort ◽  
Probabilistic Constraints ◽  
Detailed Model ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Sampling Times

Abstract Detailed prediction models with robust constraints and small sampling times in Model Predictive Control yield conservative behavior and large computational effort, especially for longer prediction horizons. Here, we extend and combine previous Model Predictive Control methods that account for prediction uncertainty and reduce computational complexity. The proposed method uses robust constraints on a detailed model for short-term predictions, while probabilistic constraints are employed on a simplified model with increased sampling time for long-term predictions. The underlying methods are introduced before presenting the proposed Model Predictive Control approach. The advantages of the proposed method are shown in a mobile robot simulation example.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Traffic Flow Prediction with KNN and LSTM

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianglong Luo ◽  
Danyang Li ◽  
Yu Yang ◽  
Shengrui Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Transportation Systems ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
K Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Traffic Flow Prediction ◽  
Flow Prediction ◽  
Proposed Model

The traffic flow prediction is becoming increasingly crucial in Intelligent Transportation Systems. Accurate prediction result is the precondition of traffic guidance, management, and control. To improve the prediction accuracy, a spatiotemporal traffic flow prediction method is proposed combined with k-nearest neighbor (KNN) and long short-term memory network (LSTM), which is called KNN-LSTM model in this paper. KNN is used to select mostly related neighboring stations with the test station and capture spatial features of traffic flow. LSTM is utilized to mine temporal variability of traffic flow, and a two-layer LSTM network is applied to predict traffic flow respectively in selected stations. The final prediction results are obtained by result-level fusion with rank-exponent weighting method. The prediction performance is evaluated with real-time traffic flow data provided by the Transportation Research Data Lab (TDRL) at the University of Minnesota Duluth (UMD) Data Center. Experimental results indicate that the proposed model can achieve a better performance compared with well-known prediction models including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), support vector regression (SVR), wavelet neural network (WNN), deep belief networks combined with support vector regression (DBN-SVR), and LSTM models, and the proposed model can achieve on average 12.59% accuracy improvement.

scholarly journals An LSTM-Based Method with Attention Mechanism for Travel Time Prediction

Sensors ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 861 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangdong Ran ◽  
Zhiguang Shan ◽  
Yufei Fang ◽  
Chuang Lin
Keyword(s):  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Attention Mechanism ◽  
Traffic Prediction ◽  
Travel Time Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Departure Time ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Traffic prediction is based on modeling the complex non-linear spatiotemporal traffic dynamics in road network. In recent years, Long Short-Term Memory has been applied to traffic prediction, achieving better performance. The existing Long Short-Term Memory methods for traffic prediction have two drawbacks: they do not use the departure time through the links for traffic prediction, and the way of modeling long-term dependence in time series is not direct in terms of traffic prediction. Attention mechanism is implemented by constructing a neural network according to its task and has recently demonstrated success in a wide range of tasks. In this paper, we propose an Long Short-Term Memory-based method with attention mechanism for travel time prediction. We present the proposed model in a tree structure. The proposed model substitutes a tree structure with attention mechanism for the unfold way of standard Long Short-Term Memory to construct the depth of Long Short-Term Memory and modeling long-term dependence. The attention mechanism is over the output layer of each Long Short-Term Memory unit. The departure time is used as the aspect of the attention mechanism and the attention mechanism integrates departure time into the proposed model. We use AdaGrad method for training the proposed model. Based on the datasets provided by Highways England, the experimental results show that the proposed model can achieve better accuracy than the Long Short-Term Memory and other baseline methods. The case study suggests that the departure time is effectively employed by using attention mechanism.

scholarly journals Long Short-Term Memory with Dynamic Skip Connections

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 6481-6488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Gui ◽  
Qi Zhang ◽  
Lujun Zhao ◽  
Yaosong Lin ◽  
Minlong Peng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Language Processing ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Sequential Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Transition Functions ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

In recent years, long short-term memory (LSTM) has been successfully used to model sequential data of variable length. However, LSTM can still experience difficulty in capturing long-term dependencies. In this work, we tried to alleviate this problem by introducing a dynamic skip connection, which can learn to directly connect two dependent words. Since there is no dependency information in the training data, we propose a novel reinforcement learning-based method to model the dependency relationship and connect dependent words. The proposed model computes the recurrent transition functions based on the skip connections, which provides a dynamic skipping advantage over RNNs that always tackle entire sentences sequentially. Our experimental results on three natural language processing tasks demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve better performance than existing methods. In the number prediction experiment, the proposed model outperformed LSTM with respect to accuracy by nearly 20%.

Towards operational postprocessing of cloud cover at MeteoSwiss

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Hemri ◽  
Christoph Spirig ◽  
Jonas Bhend ◽  
Lionel Moret ◽  
Mark Liniger
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Direct Model ◽  
Ensemble Model Output Statistics

<p>Over the last decades ensemble approaches have become state-of-the-art for the quantification of weather forecast uncertainty. Despite ongoing improvements, ensemble forecasts issued by numerical weather prediction models (NWPs) still tend to be biased and underdispersed. Statistical postprocessing has proven to be an appropriate tool to correct biases and underdispersion, and hence to improve forecast skill. Here we focus on multi-model postprocessing of cloud cover forecasts in Switzerland. In order to issue postprocessed forecasts at any point in space, ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) models are trained and verified against EUMETSAT CM SAF satellite data with a spatial resolution of around 2 km over Switzerland. Training with a minimal record length of the past 45 days of forecast and observation data already produced an EMOS model improving direct model output (DMO). Training on a 3 years record of the corresponding season further improved the performance. We evaluate how well postprocessing corrects the most severe forecast errors, like missing fog and low level stratus in winter. For such conditions, postprocessing of cloud cover benefits strongly from incorporating additional predictors into the postprocessing suite. A quasi-operational prototype has been set up and was used to explore meteogram-like visualizations of probabilistic cloud cover forecasts.</p>

scholarly journals Descriptive Answer Script Grading System using CNN-BiLSTM Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 139-144
Author(s):  
Shirien K A ◽  
Neethu George ◽  
Surekha Mariam Varghese
Keyword(s):  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Student Evaluation ◽  
Semantic Representation ◽  
Similarity Score ◽  
Test Dataset ◽  
Learning Framework ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Public Dataset ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Descriptive answer script assessment and rating program is an automated framework to evaluate the answer scripts correctly. There are several classification schemes in which a piece of text is evaluated on the basis of spelling, semantics and meaning. But, lots of these aren’t successful. Some of the models available to rate the response scripts include Simple Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Deep LSTM. In addition to that Convolution Neural Network and Bi-directional LSTM is considered here to refine the result. The model uses convolutional neural networks and bidirectional LSTM networks to learn local information of words and capture long-term dependency information of contexts on the Tensorflow and Keras deep learning framework. The embedding semantic representation of texts can be used for computing semantic similarities between pieces of texts and to grade them based on the similarity score. The experiment used methods for data optimization, such as data normalization and dropout, and tested the model on an Automated Student Evaluation Short Response Scoring, a commonly used public dataset. By comparing with the existing systems, the proposed model has achieved the state-of-the-art performance and achieves better results in the accuracy of the test dataset.

scholarly journals Prediction of DNA binding proteins using local features and long-term dependencies with primary sequences based on deep learning

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e11262
Author(s):  
Guobin Li ◽  
Xiuquan Du ◽  
Xinlu Li ◽  
Le Zou ◽  
Guanhong Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Feature Extraction ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Dna Binding ◽  
Binding Proteins ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Local Features ◽  
Dna Binding Proteins ◽  
Superior Performance

DNA-binding proteins (DBPs) play pivotal roles in many biological functions such as alternative splicing, RNA editing, and methylation. Many traditional machine learning (ML) methods and deep learning (DL) methods have been proposed to predict DBPs. However, these methods either rely on manual feature extraction or fail to capture long-term dependencies in the DNA sequence. In this paper, we propose a method, called PDBP-Fusion, to identify DBPs based on the fusion of local features and long-term dependencies only from primary sequences. We utilize convolutional neural network (CNN) to learn local features and use bi-directional long-short term memory network (Bi-LSTM) to capture critical long-term dependencies in context. Besides, we perform feature extraction, model training, and model prediction simultaneously. The PDBP-Fusion approach can predict DBPs with 86.45% sensitivity, 79.13% specificity, 82.81% accuracy, and 0.661 MCC on the PDB14189 benchmark dataset. The MCC of our proposed methods has been increased by at least 9.1% compared to other advanced prediction models. Moreover, the PDBP-Fusion also gets superior performance and model robustness on the PDB2272 independent dataset. It demonstrates that the PDBP-Fusion can be used to predict DBPs from sequences accurately and effectively; the online server is at http://119.45.144.26:8080/PDBP-Fusion/.

scholarly journals Deep Learning based Semantic Similarity Detection using Text Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 495-510
Author(s):  
Muhammad Mansoor ◽  
Zahoor ur Rehman ◽  
Muhammad Shaheen ◽  
Muhammad Attique Khan ◽  
Mohamed Habib
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Language Processing ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Main Task ◽  
Detection Algorithms ◽  
Similarity Detection ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Memory Network ◽  
Numeric Data

Similarity detection in the text is the main task for a number of Natural Language Processing (NLP) applications. As textual data is comparatively large in quantity and huge in volume than the numeric data, therefore measuring textual similarity is one of the important problems. Most of the similarity detection algorithms are based upon word to word matching, sentence/paragraph matching, and matching of the whole document. In this research, a novel approach is proposed using deep learning models, combining Long Short Term Memory network (LSTM) with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for measuring semantics similarity between two questions. The proposed model takes sentence pairs as input to measure the similarity between them. The model is tested on publicly available Quora’s dataset. The model in comparison to the existing techniques gave 87.50 % accuracy which is better than the previous approaches.

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