Impact of assimilation of radiosonde and UAV observations on numerical weather prediction analyses and forecasts in the Arctic and Antarctic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timo Vihma ◽  
Tuomas Naakka ◽  
Qizhen Sun ◽  
Tiina Nygård ◽  
Michael Tjernström ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Observation Site ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Background Fields ◽  
The Impact

<p>Weather forecasting in the Arctic and Antarctic is a challenge above all due to rarity of observations to be assimilated in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. As observations are expensive and logistically challenging, it is important to evaluate the benefit that additional observations could bring to NWP.</p><p>Considering the Arctic, in this study the effects of the spatial coverage of the network on numerical weather prediction were evaluated by comparing radiosonde observations from land station taken from Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) and radiosonde observations from expeditions in the Arctic Ocean with operational analyses and background fields (12‐hr forecasts) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The focus was on 850 hPa level temperature for the period January 2016 – September 2018. Comparison of the analyses and background fields showed that radiosoundings had a remarkable impact on improving operational analyses but the impact had a large geographical variation. In particular, radiosonde observations from islands (Jan Mayen and Bear Island) in the northern North Atlantic and from Arctic expeditions substantially improved analyses suggesting that those observations were critical for the quality of analyses and forecasts. Comparison of two cases with and without assimilation of radiosonde sounding data from expeditions of Icebreaker Oden in 2016 and 2018 in the central Artic Ocean showed that satellite observations were not able to compensate for the large spatial gap in the radiosounding network. In the areas where the network is reasonably dense, the density of the sounding network was not the most critical factor for the quality of background fields. Instead, the quality of background field was more related to how radiosonde observations were utilized in the assimilation and to the quality of those observations.</p><p>Considering the Antarctic, we applied radiosonde sounding and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) observations from an RV Polarstern cruise in the ice-covered Weddell Sea in austral winter 2013 to evaluate the impact of their assimilation in the Polar version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF) model. Our experiments revealed small or moderate impacts of radiosonde and UAV data assimilation. In any case, the assimilation of sounding data from both radiosondes and UAVs improved the analyses of air temperature, wind speed, and humidity at the observation site for most of the time. Further, the impact on the results of 5-day long Polar WRF experiments was often felt over distances of at least 300 km from the observation site. All experiments succeeded in capturing the main features of the evolution of near-surface variables, but the effects of data assimilation varied between different cases. Due to the limited vertical extent of the UAV observations, the impact of their assimilation was limited to the lowermost 1-2 km layer, and assimilation of radiosonde data was more beneficial for modelled sea level pressure and near-surface wind speed. Considering the perspectives for technological advance, atmospheric soundings applying UAV have a large potential to supplement conventional radiosonde sounding observations.</p><p>The differences in the results obtained for the Arctic and Antarctic are discussed.</p>

scholarly journals Observing System Experiments with an Arctic Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 981 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Randriamampianina ◽  
Harald Schyberg ◽  
Máté Mile
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Medium Range Weather Forecast ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Radiance Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Assimilation System

In the Arctic, weather forecasting is one element of risk mitigation, helping operators to have knowledge on weather-related risk in advance through forecasting capabilities at time ranges from a few hours to days ahead. The operational numerical weather prediction is an initial value problem where the forecast quality depends both on the quality of the forecast model itself and on the quality of the specified initial state. The initial states are regularly updated using environmental observations through data assimilation. This paper assesses the impact of observations, which are accessible through the global telecommunication and the EUMETCast dissemination systems on analyses and forecasts of an Arctic limited area AROME (Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale) model (AROME-Arctic). An assessment through the computation of degrees of freedom for signals on the analysis, the utilization of an energy norm-based approach applied to the forecasts, verifications against observations, and a case study showed similar impacts of the studied observations on the AROME-Arctic analysis and forecast systems. The AROME-Arctic assimilation system showed a relatively high sensitivity to the humidity or humidity-sensitive observations. The more radiance data were assimilated, the lower was the estimated relative sensitivity of the assimilation system to different conventional observations. Data assimilation, at least for surface parameters, is needed to produce accurate forecasts from a few hours up to days ahead over the studied Arctic region. Upper-air conventional observations are not enough to improve the forecasting capability over the AROME-Arctic domain compared to those already produced by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast). Each added radiance data showed a relatively positive impact on the analyses and forecasts of the AROME-Arctic. The humidity-sensitive microwave (AMSU-B/MHS) radiances, assimilated together with the conventional observations and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)-assimilated on top of conventional and microwave radiances produced enough accurate one-day-ahead forecasts of polar low.

scholarly journals Impact of model resolution on numerical weather prediction

2019 ◽  
Vol 286 ◽  
pp. 07012
Author(s):  
Z. Sahlaoui ◽  
S. Mordane
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Precipitation Field ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

Several model configurations are used in Morocco for numerical weather prediction (NWP). The aim of this work is to verify the impact of resolution on the quality of models forecast, particularly the precipitation field. Three model configurations are tested with 7.5 km, 5 km and 2.5 km resolution. A rainy event over the North-East of Morocco is studied. The impact on models performances is assessed through the comparison of precipitation forecasts with the adjusted quantitative precipitation estimate from weather radar. The results show that the model with 2.5 km resolution gives the best quality precipitation forecast in term of both intensity and localisation.

scholarly journals The Impact of Radiosounding Observations on Numerical Weather Prediction Analyses in the Arctic

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (14) ◽  
pp. 8527-8535 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Naakka ◽  
T. Nygård ◽  
M. Tjernström ◽  
T. Vihma ◽  
R. Pirazzini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Improved Gridded Wind Speed Forecasts by Statistical Postprocessing of Numerical Models with Block Regression

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 1929-1945 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michaël Zamo ◽  
Liliane Bel ◽  
Olivier Mestre ◽  
Joël Stein
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Random Forests ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Spatial Coverage

Abstract Numerical weather forecast errors are routinely corrected through statistical postprocessing by several national weather services. These statistical postprocessing methods build a regression function called model output statistics (MOS) between observations and forecasts that is based on an archive of past forecasts and associated observations. Because of limited spatial coverage of most near-surface parameter measurements, MOS have been historically produced only at meteorological station locations. Nevertheless, forecasters and forecast users increasingly ask for improved gridded forecasts. The present work aims at building improved hourly wind speed forecasts over the grid of a numerical weather prediction model. First, a new observational analysis, which performs better in terms of statistical scores than those operationally used at Météo-France, is described as gridded pseudo-observations. This analysis, which is obtained by using an interpolation strategy that was selected among other alternative strategies after an intercomparison study conducted internally at Météo-France, is very parsimonious since it requires only two additive components, and it requires little computational resources. Then, several scalar regression methods are built and compared, using the new analysis as the observation. The most efficient MOS is based on random forests trained on blocks of nearby grid points. This method greatly improves forecasts compared with raw output of numerical weather prediction models. Furthermore, building each random forest on blocks and limiting those forests to shallow trees does not impair performance compared with unpruned and pointwise random forests. This alleviates the storage burden of the objects and speeds up operations.

scholarly journals 4DVAR assimilation of GNSS zenith path delays and precipitable water into a numerical weather prediction model WRF

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Witold Rohm ◽  
Jakub Guzikowski ◽  
Karina Wilgan ◽  
Maciej Kryza
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Gnss Data ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The GNSS data assimilation is currently widely discussed in the literature with respect to the various applications in meteorology and numerical weather models. Data assimilation combines atmospheric measurements with knowledge of atmospheric behavior as codified in computer models. With this approach, the best estimate of current conditions consistent with both information sources is produced. Some approaches allow assimilating also the non-prognostic variables, including remote sensing data from radar or GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System). These techniques are named variational data assimilation schemes and are based on a minimization of the cost function, which contains the differences between the model state (background) and the observations. This paper shows the results of assimilation of GNSS data into numerical weather prediction (NWP) model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting). The WRF model offers two different variational approaches: 3DVAR and 4DVAR, both available through WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA) package. The WRFDA assimilation procedure was modified to correct for bias and observation errors. We assimilated the Zenith Troposphere Delay (ZTD), Precipitable Water (PW), radiosonde (RS) and surface synoptic observations (SYNOP) using 4DVAR assimilation scheme. Three experiments have been performed: (1) assimilation of PW and ZTD for May and June of 2013, (2) assimilation of: PW alone; PW, with RS and SYNOP; ZTD alone; and finally ZTD, with RS and SYNOP for 5–23 May 2013, and (3) assimilation of PW or ZTD during severe weather events in June 2013. Once the initial conditions were established, the forecast was run for 48 hours. The obtained WRF predictions are validated against surface meteorological measurements, including air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and rainfall rate. Results from the first experiment (May and June 2013) show that the assimilation of GNSS data (both ZTD and PW) have positive impact on the rain and humidity forecast. However, the assimilation of ZTD is more successful, and brings substantial reduction of errors in rain forecast by 8 %, and a 20 % improvement in bias of humidity forecast, but it has a slight negative impact on temperature bias and wind speed. Second experiment (5–23 May 2013) reveals that the PW or ZTD assimilation leads to a similar reduction of errors as in the first experiment, moreover, adding SYNOP and RS observations to the assimilation does not improve the humidity or rain forecasts (in the 48 h forecast) but reduces errors in the wind speed and temperature. Furthermore, short term predictions (up to 24 h) of rain and humidity are better when SYNOP and RS observations are assimilated. The impact of assimilation of ZTD and PW in severe weather cases is mixed, one out of three investigated cases shows positive impact of GNSS data, whereas other two neutral or negative.

scholarly journals Assessing probabilistic modelling for wind speed from numerical weather prediction model and observation in the Arctic

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Chen ◽  
Yngve Birkelund ◽  
Stian Normann Anfinsen ◽  
Reidar Staupe-Delgado ◽  
Fuqing Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Renewable Energy Resources ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Numerical Weather

AbstractMapping Arctic renewable energy resources, particularly wind, is important to ensure the transition into renewable energy in this environmentally vulnerable region. The statistical characterisation of wind is critical for effectively assessing energy potential and planning wind park sites and is, therefore, an important input for wind power policymaking. In this article, different probability density functions are used to model wind speed for five wind parks in the Norwegian Arctic region. A comparison between wind speed data from numerical weather prediction models and measurements is made, and a probability analysis for the wind speed interval corresponding to the rated power, which is largely absent in the existing literature, is presented. The results of the present study suggest that no single probability function outperforms across all scenarios. However, some differences emerged from the models when applied to different wind parks. The Nakagami and Generalised extreme value distributions were chosen for the numerical weather predicted prediction and the observed wind speed modelling, respectively, due to their superiority and stability compared with other methods. This paper, therefore, provides a novel direction for understanding the numerical weather prediction wind model and shows that its speed statistical features are better captured than those of real wind.

scholarly journals On the Impact of Unmanned Aerial System Observations on Numerical Weather Prediction in the Coastal Zone

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (2) ◽  
pp. 599-622 ◽  
Author(s):  
David D. Flagg ◽  
James D. Doyle ◽  
Teddy R. Holt ◽  
Daniel P. Tyndall ◽  
Clark M. Amerault ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Research Laboratory ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Naval Research ◽  
Unmanned Aerial System ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The Trident Warrior observational field campaign conducted off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast in July 2013 included the deployment of an unmanned aerial system (UAS) with several payloads on board for atmospheric and oceanic observation. These UAS observations, spanning seven flights over 5 days in the lowest 1550 m above mean sea level, were assimilated into a three-dimensional variational data assimilation (DA) system [the Naval Research Laboratory Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS)] used to generate analyses for a numerical weather prediction model [the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)] with a coupled ocean model [the Naval Research Laboratory Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM)]. The impact of the assimilated UAS observations on short-term atmospheric prediction performance is evaluated and quantified. Observations collected from 50 radiosonde launches during the campaign adjacent to the UAS flight paths serve as model forecast verification. Experiments reveal a substantial reduction of model bias in forecast temperature and moisture profiles consistently throughout the campaign period due to the assimilation of UAS observations. The model error reduction is most substantial in the vicinity of the inversion at the top of the model-estimated boundary layer. Investigations reveal a consistent improvement to prediction of the vertical position, strength, and depth of the boundary layer inversion. The relative impact of UAS observations is explored further with experiments of systematic denial of data streams from the NAVDAS DA system and removal of individual measurement sources on the UAS platform.

scholarly journals Implementation of a simple thermodynamic sea ice scheme, SICE version 1.0-38h1, within the ALADIN–HIRLAM numerical weather prediction system version 38h1

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 3347-3368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yurii Batrak ◽  
Ekaterina Kourzeneva ◽  
Mariken Homleid
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Form Drag ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Ice Surface Temperature

Abstract. Sea ice is an important factor affecting weather regimes, especially in polar regions. A lack of its representation in numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems leads to large errors. For example, in the HARMONIE–AROME model configuration of the ALADIN–HIRLAM NWP system, the mean absolute error in 2 m temperature reaches 1.5 ∘C after 15 forecast hours for Svalbard. A possible reason for this is that the sea ice properties are not reproduced correctly (there is no prognostic sea ice temperature in the model). Here, we develop a new simple sea ice scheme (SICE) and implement it in the ALADIN–HIRLAM NWP system in order to improve the forecast quality in areas influenced by sea ice. The new parameterization is evaluated using HARMONIE–AROME experiments covering the Svalbard and Gulf of Bothnia areas for a selected period in March–April 2013. It is found that using the SICE scheme improves the forecast, decreasing the value of the 2 m temperature mean absolute error on average by 0.5 ∘C in areas that are influenced by sea ice. The new scheme is sensitive to the representation of the form drag. The 10 m wind speed bias increases on average by 0.4 m s−1 when the form drag is not taken into account. Also, the performance of SICE in March–April 2013 and December 2015–December 2016 was studied by comparing modelling results with the sea ice surface temperature products from MODIS and VIIRS. The warm bias (of approximately 5 ∘C) of the new scheme is indicated for areas of thick ice in the Arctic. Impacts of the SICE scheme on the modelling results and possibilities for future improvement of sea ice representation in the ALADIN–HIRLAM NWP system are discussed.

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