scholarly journals Identifying buildings at risk and pedestrian travel times to safety areas in a debris flow worst-case scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raquel Melo ◽  
José Luís Zêzere ◽  
Sérgio Oliveira ◽  
Ricardo Garcia ◽  
Sandra Oliveira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Debris Flow ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Evacuation Modelling ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Pedestrian Evacuation ◽  
Pedestrian Travel

<p>During the last two centuries, several debris flow events occurred in the upper part of the Zêzere valley, which is located in the Estrela mountain, in Central Portugal. These events were responsible for material damage as well as for the loss of lives. Given the susceptibility of this area to the occurrence of debris flows, a methodology for pedestrian evacuation modelling was implemented, in order to identify buildings at risk and pedestrian travel times to safety areas in a debris flow worst-case scenario. Starting from a dynamic run-out model, developed in previous works, the potential debris flow intensity was estimated (e.g. flow depth, velocity and run-out distance). Sequentially, the buildings potentially affected by the impact of debris flows, as well as the ones where the evacuation would take longer than the debris flows arrival, were identified. In addition, the potentially exposed population was estimated by applying a dasymetric distribution to each residential building. This population distribution took into account the identification of the older residents as the most exposed to debris flows, which is critical to develop reliable pedestrian evacuation travel time scenarios. The pedestrian evacuation modelling was performed using the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst, a GIS tool developed by the United States Geological Survey. The evacuation modelling was based on an anisotropic approach, which considers the influence of slope direction on travel costs, thus its application is suitable in a mountainous area. The implemented methodology is a critical step towards the implementation of a reliable early warning system to debris flows that can be reproduced elsewhere.</p><p><strong>Funding information</strong>: This work was financed by national funds through FCT—Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P., under the framework of the project BeSafeSlide—Landslide Early Warning soft technology prototype to improve community resilience and adaptation to environmental change (PTDC/GES-AMB/30052/2017) and by the Research Unit UIDB/00295/2020. Pedro Pinto Santos is funded by FCT through the project with the reference CEEIND/00268/2017.</p>

scholarly journals Debris flow run-out simulation and analysis using a dynamic model

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 555-570 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raquel Melo ◽  
Theo van Asch ◽  
José L. Zêzere
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Back Analysis ◽  
Rheological Parameters ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Central Portugal

Abstract. Only two months after a huge forest fire occurred in the upper part of a valley located in central Portugal, several debris flows were triggered by intense rainfall. The event caused infrastructural and economic damage, although no lives were lost. The present research aims to simulate the run-out of two debris flows that occurred during the event as well as to calculate via back-analysis the rheological parameters and the excess rain involved. Thus, a dynamic model was used, which integrates surface runoff, concentrated erosion along the channels, propagation and deposition of flow material. Afterwards, the model was validated using 32 debris flows triggered during the same event that were not considered for calibration. The rheological and entrainment parameters obtained for the most accurate simulation were then used to perform three scenarios of debris flow run-out on the basin scale. The results were confronted with the existing buildings exposed in the study area and the worst-case scenario showed a potential inundation that may affect 345 buildings. In addition, six streams where debris flow occurred in the past and caused material damage and loss of lives were identified.

scholarly journals Debris flow run-out simulation and analysis using a dynamic model

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raquel Melo ◽  
Theo van Asch ◽  
José L. Zêzere
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Back Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
Rheological Parameters ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Central Portugal

Abstract. Only two months after a huge wildfire occurred in the upper part of a valley located in Central Portugal, several debris flows were triggered by intense rainfall. The event caused infrastructural and economical damage, although no life was lost. The present research aims to simulate the run-out of two debris flows occurred during the event as well as to calculate by back-analysis the rheological parameters and the excess rain involved. Thus, a dynamic model was used, which integrates surface runoff, concentrated erosion along the channels, propagation and deposition of flow material. The rheological and entrainment parameters obtained for the most accurate simulation were then used to perform three scenarios of debris flows run-out at the basin scale. Due to the lack of quantitative information to validate these models, the results were compared with historical references of debris flow events in the study area. Six streams were identified, where debris flows occurred in the past and caused material damage and loss of lives. The worst-case scenario carried out at the basin scale shows a potential inundation that may affect 345 buildings at the present day.

Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Savelli ◽  
Susan Joslyn ◽  
Limor Nadav-Greenberg ◽  
Queena Chen
Keyword(s):  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Anchoring Effects

scholarly journals Learning Case Study of a Shallow-Water Model to Assess an Early-Warning System for Fast Alpine Muddy-Debris-Flow

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 750
Author(s):  
Antonio Pasculli ◽  
Jacopo Cinosi ◽  
Laura Turconi ◽  
Nicola Sciarra
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Shallow Water ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Water Model ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Processing Unit

The current climate change could lead to an intensification of extreme weather events, such as sudden floods and fast flowing debris flows. Accordingly, the availability of an early-warning device system, based on hydrological data and on both accurate and very fast running mathematical-numerical models, would be not only desirable, but also necessary in areas of particular hazard. To this purpose, the 2D Riemann–Godunov shallow-water approach, solved in parallel on a Graphical-Processing-Unit (GPU) (able to drastically reduce calculation time) and implemented with the RiverFlow2D code (version 2017), was selected as a possible tool to be applied within the Alpine contexts. Moreover, it was also necessary to identify a prototype of an actual rainfall monitoring network and an actual debris-flow event, beside the acquisition of an accurate numerical description of the topography. The Marderello’s basin (Alps, Turin, Italy), described by a 5 × 5 m Digital Terrain Model (DTM), equipped with five rain-gauges and one hydrometer and the muddy debris flow event that was monitored on 22 July 2016, were identified as a typical test case, well representative of mountain contexts and the phenomena under study. Several parametric analyses, also including selected infiltration modelling, were carried out in order to individuate the best numerical values fitting the measured data. Different rheological options, such as Coulomb-Turbulent-Yield and others, were tested. Moreover, some useful general suggestions, regarding the improvement of the adopted mathematical modelling, were acquired. The rapidity of the computational time due to the application of the GPU and the comparison between experimental data and numerical results, regarding both the arrival time and the height of the debris wave, clearly show that the selected approaches and methodology can be considered suitable and accurate tools to be included in an early-warning system, based at least on simple acoustic and/or light alarms that can allow rapid evacuation, for fast flowing debris flows.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Match Demands Using Ball-in-Play versus Whole Match Data in Professional Soccer Players of the English Championship

Sports ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 76
Author(s):  
Dylan Mernagh ◽  
Anthony Weldon ◽  
Josh Wass ◽  
John Phillips ◽  
Nimai Parmar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Repeated Measures ◽  
Soccer Players ◽  
Training Methods ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Repeated Measures Design ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Professional Soccer ◽  
Peak Match ◽  
Playing Time

This is the first study to report the whole match, ball-in-play (BiP), ball-out-of-play (BoP), and Max BiP (worst case scenario phases of play) demands of professional soccer players competing in the English Championship. Effective playing time per soccer game is typically <60 min. When the ball is out of play, players spend time repositioning themselves, which is likely less physically demanding. Consequently, reporting whole match demands may under-report the physical requirements of soccer players. Twenty professional soccer players, categorized by position (defenders, midfielders, and forwards), participated in this study. A repeated measures design was used to collect Global Positioning System (GPS) data over eight professional soccer matches in the English Championship. Data were divided into whole match and BiP data, and BiP data were further sub-divided into different time points (30–60 s, 60–90 s, and >90 s), providing peak match demands. Whole match demands recorded were compared to BiP and Max BiP, with BiP data excluding all match stoppages, providing a more precise analysis of match demands. Whole match metrics were significantly lower than BiP metrics (p < 0.05), and Max BiP for 30–60 s was significantly higher than periods between 60–90 s and >90 s. No significant differences were found between positions. BiP analysis allows for a more accurate representation of the game and physical demands imposed on professional soccer players. Through having a clearer understanding of maximum game demands in professional soccer, practitioners can design more specific training methods to better prepare players for worst case scenario passages of play.

Legal adaptability in Elbonia

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 393-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathias M. Siems
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Data ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
The Law

Law has to be able to respond to new or changing circumstances. This ‘legal adaptability’ may be more important than details in the ‘law as such’. However, its meaning and its significance have not yet been analysed in detail. Thus, legal adaptability will be examined in this article. It looks at the worst case scenario by discussing a fictional country (Elbonia) where legal adaptability is poor, and identifies the main adaptability criteria. By using empirical data from the three Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia), it also provides an example of how to ascertain the degree of legal adaptability of particular countries.

Discussion of the Worst Case Scenario of FLD0

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naji Arwashan
Keyword(s):  
Simple Formula ◽  
Forming Limit Diagram ◽  
Forming Limit ◽  
Vertical Position ◽  
Engineering Practice ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Grid Analysis ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Minimum Value

Abstract The Forming Limit Diagram is used in circle grid analysis to check the safety of a formed panel. The shape of the Forming Limit Diagram for steel is always the same, it is only the vertical position of the diagram that varies depending on the value of FLD0. For steel, FLD0 is widely accepted to be dependent on the thickness and n value which are both inherently indeterministic, and can exhibit variations, small or large, depending on the manufacturing process. To account for this variability in determining the safety of a formed panel, the engineering practice in many companies is to use a minimum value for FLD0 called Worst Case Scenario, because it is calculated using minimum values for both t and n. This paper presents a different and better approach to calculate the minimum value of FLD0. The approach is based on probabilistic concepts, and allows the calculation of a minimum value for FLD0 that is related to a certain probability of occurrence. The derivation technique used in the paper is borrowed from Reliability Analysis and tailored to solve our problem. The derivation leads to a simple formula that can be easily used. The minimum value of FLD0 calculated according to the paper is more accurate than the Worst Case Scenario, and provides better cost saving since it is always greater than the Worst Case Scenario value.

Genetic Family Histories: An Aid to Social Work Assessment

1993 ◽  
Vol 74 (4) ◽  
pp. 195-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Bernhardt ◽  
Julia B. Rauch
Keyword(s):  
Social Work ◽  
Genetic Services ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Family Histories ◽  
Work Assessment ◽  
Focus Depth ◽  
Service Training ◽  
Agency Design

The focus, depth, and use of genetic family histories vary depending on the agency purpose and the client's presenting problem. Failure to obtain genetic family histories can result in inaccurate assessment and incomplete or misdirected services. In the worst-case scenario, failure to obtain such information and to advise clients of available genetic services are potential grounds for malpractice and wrongful-adoption suits. The authors discuss approaches to obtaining and recording genetic family histories and present criteria for referral to genetic services. The authors recommend that agency administrators consider consulting with a genetic professional to determine the appropriate focus of genetic family histories within the agency, design a protocol, and arrange in-service training in use of the protocol.

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