scholarly journals Flood resilience measurement for communities: data for science and practice

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Szoenyi ◽  
Finn Laurien ◽  
Adriana Keating
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Disaster Resilience ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Unique Data ◽  
Flood Impacts ◽  
Building Community ◽  
System Robustness

<p>Given the increased attention put on strengthening disaster resilience, there is a growing need to invest in its measurement and the overall accountability of resilience strengthening initiatives. There is a major gap in evidence about what actually makes communities more resilient when an event occurs, because there are no empirically validated measures of disaster resilience. Similarly, an effort to identify operational indicators has gained some traction only more recently. The Flood Resilience Measurement for Communities (FRMC) framework and associated, fully operational, integrated tool takes a systems-thinking, holistic approach to serve the dual goals of generating data on the determinants of community flood resilience, and providing decision-support for on-the-ground investment. The FRMC framework measures “sources of resilience” before a flood happens and looks at the post-flood impacts afterwards. It is built around the notion of five types of capital (the 5Cs: human, social, physical, natural, and financial) and the 4Rs of a resilient system (robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, and rapidity). The sources of resilience are graded based on Zurich’s Risk Engineering Technical Grading Standard. Results are displayed according to the 5Cs and 4Rs, the disaster risk management (DRM) cycle, themes and context level, to give the approach further flexibility and accessibility.</p><p>The Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance (ZFRA) has identified the measurement of resilience as a valuable ingredient in building community flood resilience. In the first application phase (2013-2018), we measured flood resilience in 118 communities across nine countries, building on responses at household and community levels. Continuing this endeavor in the second phase (2018 – 2023) will allow us to enrich the understanding of community flood resilience and to extend this unique data set.</p><p>We find that at the community level, the FRMC enables users to track community progress on resilience over time in a standardized way. It thus provides vital information for the decision-making process in terms of prioritizing the resilience-building measures most needed by the community. At community and higher decision-making levels, measuring resilience also provides a basis for improving the design of innovative investment programs to strengthen disaster resilience.</p><p>By exploring data across multiple communities (facing different flood types and with very different socioeconomic and political contexts), we can generate evidence with respect to which characteristics contribute most to community disaster resilience before an event strikes. This contributes to meeting the challenge of demonstrating that the work we do has the desired impact – that it actually builds resilience. Our findings suggest that stronger interactions between community functions induce co-benefits for community development.</p>

scholarly journals Would credit scoring work for Islamic finance? A neural network approach

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 112-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hussein A. Abdou ◽  
Shaair T. Alam ◽  
James Mulkeen
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Credit Scoring ◽  
Islamic Finance ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Modeling Techniques ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Training Subset

Purpose – This paper aims to distinguish whether the decision-making process of the Islamic financial houses in the UK can be improved through the use of credit scoring modeling techniques as opposed to the currently used judgmental approaches. Subsidiary aims are to identify how scoring models can reclassify accepted applicants who later are considered as having bad credit and how many of the rejected applicants are later considered as having good credit, and highlight significant variables that are crucial in terms of accepting and rejecting applicants, which can further aid the decision-making process. Design/methodology/approach – A real data set of 487 applicants is used consisting of 336 accepted credit applications and 151 rejected credit applications made to an Islamic finance house in the UK. To build the proposed scoring models, the data set is divided into training and hold-out subsets. The training subset is used to build the scoring models, and the hold-out subset is used to test the predictive capabilities of the scoring models. Seventy per cent of the overall applicants will be used for the training subset, and 30 per cent will be used for the testing subset. Three statistical modeling techniques, namely, discriminant analysis, logistic regression (LR) and multilayer perceptron (MP) neural network, are used to build the proposed scoring models. Findings – The findings reveal that the LR model has the highest correct classification (CC) rate in the training subset, whereas MP outperforms other techniques and has the highest CC rate in the hold-out subset. MP also outperforms other techniques in terms of predicting the rejected credit applications and has the lowest misclassification cost above other techniques. In addition, results from MP models show that monthly expenses, age and marital status are identified as the key factors affecting the decision-making process. Originality/value – This contribution is the first to apply credit scoring modeling techniques in Islamic finance. Also in building a scoring model, the authors' application applies a different approach by using accepted and rejected credit applications instead of good and bad credit histories. This identifies opportunity costs of misclassifying credit applications as rejected.

Game Theoretical Approach to Model Decision Making for Merging Maneuvers at Freeway On-Ramps

2017 ◽  
Vol 2623 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyungwon Kang ◽  
Hesham A. Rakha
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Theoretical Approach ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Deliberation Process ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Game Theoretical Approach ◽  
The Subject

Drivers of merging vehicles decide when to merge by considering surrounding vehicles in adjacent lanes in their deliberation process. Conflicts between drivers of the subject vehicles (i.e., merging vehicles) in an auxiliary lane and lag vehicles in the adjacent lane are typical near freeway on-ramps. This paper models a decision-making process for merging maneuvers that uses a game theoretical approach. The proposed model is based on the noncooperative decision making of two players, that is, drivers of the subject and lag vehicles, without consideration of advanced communication technologies. In the decision-making process, the drivers of the subject vehicles elect to accept gaps, and drivers of lag vehicles either yield or block the action of the subject vehicle. Corresponding payoff functions for two players were formulated to describe their respective maneuvers. To estimate model parameters, a bi-level optimization approach was used. The next generation simulation data set was used for model calibration and validation. The data set defined the moment the game started and was modeled as a continuous sequence of games until a decision is made. The defined merging decision-making model was then validated with an independent data set. The validation results reveal that the proposed model provides considerable prediction accuracy with correct predictions 84% of the time.

STRATEGIC PLANNING OF FUTURE PRODUCTS WITH PRODUCT SCENARIOS

2010 ◽  
Vol 07 (03) ◽  
pp. 237-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
VOLKER GRIENITZ ◽  
VOLKER BLUME
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Evolutionary Algorithms ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Managerial Decision Making ◽  
Manufacturing Resources ◽  
Technology Strategies ◽  
Innovation Processes

Manufacturing based corporations often find themselves confronted with complexities of increased pressures to innovate in order to ensure their comparative market positions. In order to react to various exogenous changes corporations need to develop strategies that match their manufacturing resources as well as products with the markets requirements. Product scenarios represent a holistic approach for managing innovation processes and technologies efficiently. The analysis through evolutionary algorithms for compatibility between and amongst the product structure segments provides the necessary information about their suitability. The resulting scenarios, roadmaps and regular monitoring processes are prerequisite for the managerial decision making process and the implementation of product and technology strategies.

scholarly journals The Modelling of Pedestrian Vehicle Interaction for Post-Exiting Behaviour

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veronica Pellacini ◽  
Peter Lawrence ◽  
Edwin Galea
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Urban Environment ◽  
Emergency Services ◽  
High Capacity ◽  
Simulation Tool ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Unique Data ◽  
The People ◽  
Computer Based ◽  
The Impact

During a major evacuation of high capacity buildings, such as a tower block or transportation hub, the emergency services will need to consider the safety of the people within the vicinity of the emergency. However, in general, when assessing the safety of a building for evacuation only the behaviour within the building is considered. One method of assessing this is to utilise a computer based simulation tool. This research outlines a number of developments required to simulate the impact of traffic on the evacuation process in an urban environment in relation to post-exiting behaviour. It uses a unique data set and model capabilities for representing pedestrian-vehicle interaction post-evacuation, which also considers the impact of time pressures on decision making. In addition, a number of software developments and pedestrian behaviours are identified for bridging the behavioural gaps when interfacing an emergency pedestrian model with a traffic simulation.

Perceptions of Concussion and Recovery in the Collegiate Athlete

2021 ◽  
Vol 75 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. 7512505107p1-7512505107p1
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Kloczko ◽  
Abigail Herman ◽  
Mairead Gormley ◽  
Erica Di Meo ◽  
Jessica Leonard
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Student Athletes ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Symptom Reporting ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Student Athlete ◽  
Collegiate Athlete ◽  
Perceptions And Attitudes ◽  
Education And Care ◽  
Primary Author

Abstract Date Presented 04/13/21 Concussion is a common sport-related injury for collegiate student athletes. Pressures exist that influence athletes' perceptions and attitudes, consequently impacting the decision-making process surrounding concussion and symptom reporting. Therefore, a holistic approach is needed for education and care. OT can contribute to the interprofessional process with a focus on health, wellness, and prevention that is inclusive of student athlete values, beliefs, and roles both on and off the field. Primary Author and Speaker: Elizabeth Kloczko Additional Authors and Speakers: Carole Dennis, Matthew Darby, Keanna Morales, Carly Wellner, Amanda Wetmore, Tiani Ziegler

scholarly journals MULTIPLE CRITERIA ASSESSMENT OF ALTERNATIVES FOR BUILT AND HUMAN ENVIRONMENT RENOVATION

2010 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 257-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Tupenaite ◽  
Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas ◽  
Arturas Kaklauskas ◽  
Zenonas Turskis ◽  
Mark Seniut
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Empty Space ◽  
Multiple Criteria ◽  
Integrated Analysis ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Human Environment ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision

The built environment is not constructed in empty space. It refers to human ‐ made spaces they live and work in and which are affected by various micro, meso and macro level factors. For this purpose, renovation decisions must be considered avoiding a narrow approach to the single projects of building renovation. Renovation of the built and human environment must be considered instead and the holistic approach used. From this perspective, decision‐making problems of renovation often involve a complex decision making process in which multiple requirements and conditions have to be taken into consideration simultaneously. This paper describes the concept of the integrated analysis of built and human environment renovation as a whole as well as presents the multiple criteria assessment of alternatives of the Bulgarian cultural heritage renovation projects. The widely known multiple criteria assessment methods SAW, TOPSIS and COPRAS and the newly developed method ARAS were used for this purpose. As a result the best project for granting was selected. Santrauka Gyvenamoji aplinka sukurta žmoniu ir skirta ju poreikiams tenkinti, ja veikia daugybe makro‐, mezo‐ ir mikroaplinkos veiksniu. Kadangi gyvenamoji aplinka yra kompleksiška, jos atnaujinimo sprendimai turi būti priimami vengiant pernelyg siauro požiūrio, nagrinejant tik pavieniu pastatu atnaujinimo projektus. Atnaujinimo sprendimai turetu būti priimami ir projektai igyvendinami taikant holistini požiūri. Šiuo požiūriu atnaujinimo sprendimai yra sudetingi, juos priimant būtina atsižvelgti i daugeli salygu ir reikalavimu. Šiame straipsnyje gyvenamosios aplinkos atnaujinimas nagrinejamas kaip visuma, pateikiamas autoriu sukurtas integruotas gyvenamosios aplinkos atnaujinimo analizes modelis, atliekama Bulgarijos kultūros paveldo atnaujinimo projektu daugiakriterine analize taikant gerai žinomus daugiakriterinio vertinimo metodus SAW, TOPSIS ir COPRAS bei naujai sukurta metoda ARAS. Atlikus tyrima išrenkamas geriausias atnaujinimo projektas, kuriam gali būti suteiktas finansavimas.

Vehicular Traffic Forecasting in Filling Station

2017 ◽  
pp. 243-262
Author(s):  
Peeyush Pandey ◽  
Tuhin Sengupta
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Traffic Forecasting ◽  
Single Data ◽  
The One ◽  
Forecasting Techniques

Forecasting is the one of the important part of decision making process. It helps managers to identify short term and long term future trends in the business activities. It may help in forecasting demand in retail store, predicting customer traffic at the petrol pump, calculation of probable population in upcoming years etc. There are plenty of studies published on forecasting techniques which are just introductory or highly mathematical and lacks in providing managerial perspective of solving business problems to the students. This chapter elucidates various forecasting techniques and its application in the field of management. In addition, various examples of real life problems are solved and analyzed with multiple forecasting techniques. Through this chapter students will have a clear understanding of the various nuances of different forecasting models in one single data set. Students will be able to identify future trend and seasonality in real life data set and evaluate more appropriate forecasting technique for the decision-making process.

An exploration of MDT views on key factors to consider when determining a service users required level of security

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-49
Author(s):  
Zulaikha Khan ◽  
Arun Chidambaram ◽  
Michaela Thomson ◽  
Courtney Hurst
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Delphi Technique ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Service Users ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Consultant Psychiatrist ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify what key factors multi-disciplinary teams (MDT) deem as most important when making the decision to move service users from one level of security (including low, medium and high secure services) to another. The researchers used the findings from this study to further develop a tool; the assessment for level of security tool (ALS), which aims to structure and streamline this decision-making process. Design/methodology/approach Data from 18 interviews (MDT staff) were analysed using the Delphi technique (Dalkey and Helmer, 1963). This revealed a range of factors discussed when considering service users moves. Participants were asked to rate these factors in accordance with the Delphi which resulted in the removal of certain less important factors based on their scores. The researchers then compared these factors of relevance with a checklist of 16 items previously proposed by a consultant psychiatrist within the trust. This comparison allowed the researchers to highlight any similarities and differences present. Findings Findings from staff interviews revealed a range of 20 clinical factors perceived as essential to this process including procedural, relational and physical security aspects. However, variations were evident between the MDT priorities (20 items) and the originally proposed list. This emphasised the need for a tool which facilitates a holistic and streamlined approach. Practical implications The findings from this research have resulted in the development of the ALS tool comprising of 18 key factors. Originality/value It is envisaged the development of the ALS tool will not only facilitate and structure the decision-making process but also ensure a person-centred approach. This is because the ALS allows for a holistic approach based on an array of factors deemed important to that particular service user. Furthermore, the ALS tool contributes towards the paucity of published structured professional judgement tools needed to make such decisions.

scholarly journals How lead investors build trust in the specific context of a campaign

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Interpersonal Trust ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Relational Trust ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Specific Context ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Extreme Risk

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of trust in the unobservable decision-making process of lead investors and follow-on investors in the specific context of equity crowdfunding (ECF) campaigns. Design/methodology/approach This work employs a case study approach. The author conducts a three-year inductive field study of Chinese ECF – AngelCrunch. The author gathered both campaign and platform-level data from the selected case covering a period of seven years from 2011 to 2018. The data set used for this study includes the characteristics of 189 online campaigns, 25 face-to-face interviews with the platform managers, early-stage investors and entrepreneurs, first-hand observations and quarterly reports on online campaigns supplemented with informal interviews with the authors for the reports. Findings The findings from this study provide early insights onto the unobservable decision-making process of ECF investors. It demonstrates that lead investors use both selective signalling information and physical interactions with the entrepreneurs to build competence and relational trust on which they rely for making an early pledge. It also shows that follow-on investors differ from lead investors in the process of building trust for decision-making. Furthermore, this work uncovers the role of ECF platforms in facilitating the process of building interpersonal trust for the decision making, with challenges to maintain the notion of platforms in raising a small amount of capital from a large crowd. Research limitations/implications This study is constrained by the limited scale of qualitative elements available. The findings of the study have implications for platform managers, investors and policy makers. Originality/value Building on entrepreneurial finance and trust theory, this work demonstrates how lead investors build competence and relational trust on which they rely to make an early pledge in the context of ECF. The perception of a lead investor and the commitment together with the selective and formative information by the entrepreneur/s are key in follow-on investors’ decision making. This study uncovers that crowdfunding enables additional and valuable information to be assessed by crowd investors to manage extreme risk and uncertainty occurred in early-stage investments. This work also demonstrates that virtual world has its limitations to build interpersonal trust for managing extreme risk.

scholarly journals Smart Growth at the Ballot Box: Understanding Voting on Affordable Housing and Land Management Referendums

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 1848-1875 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz ◽  
Corey Lang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Rhode Island ◽  
Affordable Housing ◽  
Smart Growth ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Environmental Preservation ◽  
Land Preservation ◽  
Unique Data ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Voter Decision Making

This study investigates voter decision-making on two smart-growth components: land preservation and affordable housing. We seek to understand how voters make concurrent decisions about unpaired smart-growth components at the ballot box. Previous studies of smart growth, affordable housing, and environmental preservation have focused primarily on describing the attitudes and traits of voters on these policies, utilize aggregate voting outcomes, or are case studies of single towns in which there is a fairly homogenous group of residents either supporting or opposing the policy. We draw on a unique data set to investigate the different covariates of attitudes for environmental preservation and affordable housing: an exit poll of voters in the 2016 Rhode Island General Election on bond referendums for environmental preservation and affordable housing. We find that the coalition for smart growth that includes both land preservation and affordable housing is undermined by views of minorities and the poor as undeserving.

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