Game Theoretical Approach to Model Decision Making for Merging Maneuvers at Freeway On-Ramps

2017 ◽  
Vol 2623 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyungwon Kang ◽  
Hesham A. Rakha
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Theoretical Approach ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Deliberation Process ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Game Theoretical Approach ◽  
The Subject

Drivers of merging vehicles decide when to merge by considering surrounding vehicles in adjacent lanes in their deliberation process. Conflicts between drivers of the subject vehicles (i.e., merging vehicles) in an auxiliary lane and lag vehicles in the adjacent lane are typical near freeway on-ramps. This paper models a decision-making process for merging maneuvers that uses a game theoretical approach. The proposed model is based on the noncooperative decision making of two players, that is, drivers of the subject and lag vehicles, without consideration of advanced communication technologies. In the decision-making process, the drivers of the subject vehicles elect to accept gaps, and drivers of lag vehicles either yield or block the action of the subject vehicle. Corresponding payoff functions for two players were formulated to describe their respective maneuvers. To estimate model parameters, a bi-level optimization approach was used. The next generation simulation data set was used for model calibration and validation. The data set defined the moment the game started and was modeled as a continuous sequence of games until a decision is made. The defined merging decision-making model was then validated with an independent data set. The validation results reveal that the proposed model provides considerable prediction accuracy with correct predictions 84% of the time.

Modeling Driver Merging Behavior: A Repeated Game Theoretical Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (20) ◽  
pp. 144-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyungwon Kang ◽  
Hesham A. Rakha
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Theoretical Approach ◽  
Repeated Game ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Lane Changing ◽  
Microscopic Traffic Simulation ◽  
Game Theoretical Approach ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Merging Behavior ◽  
Decision Making Model

Various lane-changing models have been developed for use within microscopic traffic simulation software to replicate driver merging behavior. An understanding of human driving behavior, which can be gained through such modeling, will be critical in harmonizing emerging advanced vehicle technology, such as connected automated vehicles, with human drivers. Therefore, it is important to ensure that lane-changing models are clearly understood, appropriately designed, and carefully calibrated. An earlier study by Kang and Rakha proposed and developed a decision-making model for merging maneuvers using a game theoretical approach considering two drivers: the driver of the subject vehicle (DS) in an acceleration lane and the driver of the following lag vehicle (DL) in the target lane. The previous model assumed that the DS and DL decide on an action at the first point only, where the subject and lag vehicles are identified. The current study extends the Kang and Rakha model by introducing the concept of a repeated game, assuming that a lane change decision is made repeatedly to adjust to changes in surrounding conditions. For example, drivers often decide to change their initial decision as a result of conflicts with other drivers. A repeated game helps the proposed model produce more realistic decision-making in the lane-changing process. To evaluate the model, driver decisions at a certain stage, along with accumulated historical decision data, were extracted from Next Generation SIMulation (NGSIM) data. The validation results reveal that the proposed repeated game model produces considerable prediction accuracy (above 75%).

EXPONENTIATED HALF-LOGISTIC LOMAX DISTRIBUTION WITH PROPERTIES AND APPLICATION

2019 ◽  
Vol XVI (2) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Farrukh Jamal ◽  
Hesham Mohammed Reyad ◽  
Soha Othman Ahmed ◽  
Muhammad Akbar Ali Shah ◽  
Emrah Altun
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Continuous Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Lomax Distribution ◽  
Mathematical Properties ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Probability Weighted Moment ◽  
Record Statistics ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Criterion

A new three-parameter continuous model called the exponentiated half-logistic Lomax distribution is introduced in this paper. Basic mathematical properties for the proposed model were investigated which include raw and incomplete moments, skewness, kurtosis, generating functions, Rényi entropy, Lorenz, Bonferroni and Zenga curves, probability weighted moment, stress strength model, order statistics, and record statistics. The model parameters were estimated by using the maximum likelihood criterion and the behaviours of these estimates were examined by conducting a simulation study. The applicability of the new model is illustrated by applying it on a real data set.

scholarly journals Mixture of Inverse Weibull and Lognormal Distributions: Properties, Estimation, and Illustration

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. S. Sultan ◽  
A. S. Al-Moisheer
Keyword(s):  
Information Matrix ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Component Mixture ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Hazard Functions ◽  
Lognormal Distributions ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Estimation Of Model Parameters

We discuss the two-component mixture of the inverse Weibull and lognormal distributions (MIWLND) as a lifetime model. First, we discuss the properties of the proposed model including the reliability and hazard functions. Next, we discuss the estimation of model parameters by using the maximum likelihood method (MLEs). We also derive expressions for the elements of the Fisher information matrix. Next, we demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed model by fitting it to a real data set. Finally, we draw some concluding remarks.

Forecast of the efficiency confidence interval of decision-making units in data envelopment analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (02) ◽  
pp. 431-445
Author(s):  
Azarnoosh Kafi ◽  
Behrouz Daneshian ◽  
Mohsen Rostamy-Malkhalifeh ◽  
Mohsen Rostamy-Malkhalifeh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Data Envelopment Analysis ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Interval Model ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Decision Making Units

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a well-known method for calculating the efficiency of Decision-Making Units (DMUs) based on their inputs and outputs. When the data is known and in the form of an interval in a given time period, this method can calculate the efficiency interval. Unfortunately, DEA is not capable of forecasting and estimating the efficiency confidence interval of the units in the future. This article, proposes a efficiency forecasting algorithm along with 95% confidence interval to generate interval data set for the next time period. What’s more, the manager’s opinion inserts and plays its role in the proposed forecasting model. Equipped with forecasted data set and with respect to data set from previous periods, the efficiency for the future period can be forecasted. This is done by proposing a proposed model and solving it by the confidence interval method. The proposed method is then implemented on the data of an automotive industry and, it is compared with the Monte Carlo simulation methods and the interval model. Using the results, it is shown that the proposed method works better to forecast the efficiency confidence interval. Finally, the efficiency and confidence interval of 95% is calculated for the upcoming period using the proposed model.

scholarly journals A Cybernetic Approach to Modeling Lipid Metabolism in Mammalian Cells

Processes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (8) ◽  
pp. 126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lina Aboulmouna ◽  
Shakti Gupta ◽  
Mano Maurya ◽  
Frank DeVilbiss ◽  
Shankar Subramaniam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mammalian Cells ◽  
Metabolic Regulation ◽  
Metabolic Flux ◽  
Optimal Parameter ◽  
Gene Knockout ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Mouse Bone Marrow ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Substrate Uptake ◽  
Data Set

The goal-oriented control policies of cybernetic models have been used to predict metabolic phenomena such as the behavior of gene knockout strains, complex substrate uptake patterns, and dynamic metabolic flux distributions. Cybernetic theory builds on the principle that metabolic regulation is driven towards attaining goals that correspond to an organism’s survival or displaying a specific phenotype in response to a stimulus. Here, we have modeled the prostaglandin (PG) metabolism in mouse bone marrow derived macrophage (BMDM) cells stimulated by Kdo2-Lipid A (KLA) and adenosine triphosphate (ATP), using cybernetic control variables. Prostaglandins are a well characterized set of inflammatory lipids derived from arachidonic acid. The transcriptomic and lipidomic data for prostaglandin biosynthesis and conversion were obtained from the LIPID MAPS database. The model parameters were estimated using a two-step hybrid optimization approach. A genetic algorithm was used to determine the population of near optimal parameter values, and a generalized constrained non-linear optimization employing a gradient search method was used to further refine the parameters. We validated our model by predicting an independent data set, the prostaglandin response of KLA primed ATP stimulated BMDM cells. We show that the cybernetic model captures the complex regulation of PG metabolism and provides a reliable description of PG formation.

scholarly journals A Proposed Model in Fundamental of Decision Making Process at Local Government Level

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamarudin Ngah ◽  
Zaherawati Zakaria ◽  
Zaliha Hj Hussin ◽  
Nazni Noordin ◽  
Jamaludin Mustaffa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Local Government Level ◽  
Government Level

Preparation of Sub-Criteria for Mathematical Modeling of Multi-Criteria Decision Making

2014 ◽  
Vol 1020 ◽  
pp. 765-768
Author(s):  
Eva Berankova ◽  
František Kuda ◽  
Stanislav Endel
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Individual Selection ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Data Analyses ◽  
Quantitative Characters ◽  
The Subject

The subject of this paper is to evaluate criteria in the decision-making process for choosing new usable office facilities in light of a big company or public service seeking for new usable office facilities. The criteria defining the requirements for individual selection variants enter into this decision-making process. These criteria have qualitative and quantitative characters. In order to model the criteria, it is desirable that their values are standardized. The method of standardization of these criteria is given in this paper. In this paper, attention is paid to the decision-making process in the course of choosing new usable facilities in administration objects. This decision-making process is based on input data analyses and on conclusions for a certain selection variant resulting from them.

scholarly journals A Family of Loss Distributions with an Application to the Vehicle Insurance Loss Data

2019 ◽  
pp. 731-744 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zubair Ahmad Ahmad ◽  
Eisa Mahmoudi Mahmoudi ◽  
G. G. Hamedani
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimates ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Loss Model ◽  
New Class ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Loss Distributions ◽  
Loss Data

Actuaries are often in search of nding an adequate loss model in the scenario of actuarial and financial risk management problems. In this work, we propose a new approach to obtain a new class of loss distributions. A special sub-model of the proposed family, called the Weibull-loss model isconsidered in detail. Some mathematical properties are derived and maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters are obtained. Certain characterizations of the proposed family are also provided. A simulation study is done to evaluate the performance of the maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, an application of the proposed model to the vehicle insurance loss data set is presented.

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