A coupled heat and moisture tracking framework to assess water cycle changes in a warming climate

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Keune ◽  
Dominik L. Schumacher ◽  
Diego G. Miralles
Keyword(s):  
Water Cycle ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Particle Dispersion ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Numerical Noise ◽  
Spatial Dependencies ◽  
Energy Conserving ◽  
Coupled Heat And Moisture ◽  
Heat And Moisture

<p>The expected intensification of the global water cycle in a warming climate comes along with an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as droughts and floods. From a drought perspective, local limitations of terrestrial evaporation can cause a reduction of water vapor in the atmosphere and thus further induce local and remote precipitation deficits. Despite the existing myriad of tools and models to assess the origin of precipitation, trends and uncertainties in such source–sink relationships remain largely unexplored. The main reason is the scarcity of observations to explore these relationships and validate moisture-tracking models, which are commonly subject to assumptions that limit their reliability and applicability. Lagrangian models, for example, typically establish source–sink relationships based on moisture changes along air parcel trajectories, yet tend to be heavily affected by numerical noise. Moreover, they do not assess the plausibility of a given moisture change by considering the increasing saturation point of air with increasing temperatures, which hampers reliable assessments of trends under global warming. </p><p>Here, we present a holistic framework for the process-based evaluation of atmospheric trajectories to infer source–sink relationships of moisture. Building upon previous process-based evaluations of trajectories, we extend the analysis to a coupled heat and moisture diagnosis that includes physics-based limits for the detection of evaporation and precipitation from humidity changes along each trajectory. The framework comprises three steps: (i) the coupled moisture and heat diagnosis of fluxes from Lagrangian trajectories using multi-objective criteria, (ii) the attribution of sources following a mass- and energy-conserving algorithm, and (iii) the bias correction of diagnosed fluxes and the corresponding source–sink relationship. Applying this framework to simulations from the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART, driven with ERA-Interim reanalysis data, allows us to quantify errors and uncertainties associated with the resulting source–sink relationships. A comparison to alternative methodologies illustrates the benefit of our coupled heat and moisture tracking approach. Moreover, the multivariate character of this framework paves the way for a cohesive assessment of the spatial dependencies that cause water cycle changes in a warming climate.</p>

scholarly journals Technical note: The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART version 6.2

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (9) ◽  
pp. 2461-2474 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Stohl ◽  
C. Forster ◽  
A. Frank ◽  
P. Seibert ◽  
G. Wotawa
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Particle Dispersion ◽  
Technical Note ◽  
Point Sources ◽  
Lagrangian Particle ◽  
Modeling And Analysis ◽  
Application Fields

Abstract. The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was originally (about 8 years ago) designed for calculating the long-range and mesoscale dispersion of air pollutants from point sources, such as after an accident in a nuclear power plant. In the meantime FLEXPART has evolved into a comprehensive tool for atmospheric transport modeling and analysis. Its application fields were extended from air pollution studies to other topics where atmospheric transport plays a role (e.g., exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere, or the global water cycle). It has evolved into a true community model that is now being used by at least 25 groups from 14 different countries and is seeing both operational and research applications. A user manual has been kept actual over the years and was distributed over an internet page along with the model's source code. In this note we provide a citeable technical description of FLEXPART's latest version (6.2).

scholarly journals Oceanic origins for wintertime Euro-Atlantic blocking

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayako Yamamoto ◽  
Masami Nonaka ◽  
Patrick Martineau ◽  
Akira Yamazaki ◽  
Young-Oh Kwon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Atlantic Origin ◽  
Lagrangian Dispersion ◽  
Low Altitude ◽  
Heat And Moisture

Abstract. Although conventionally attributed to dry dynamics, increasing evidence points to a key role of moist dynamics in the formation and maintenance of blocking events. The source of moisture crucial for these processes, however, remains elusive. In this study, we identify the moisture sources responsible for latent heating associated with the wintertime Euro-Atlantic blocking events detected over 31 years (1979–2010). To this end, we track atmospheric particles backward in time from the blocking centres for a period of 10 days, using an offline Lagrangian dispersion model applied to an atmospheric reanalysis data. The analysis reveals that 36–55 % of particles gain a massive amount of heat and moisture from the ocean over the course of 10 days. Via large-scale ascent, these moist particles transport low potential vorticity (PV) air of low-altitude, low-latitude origins to the upper troposphere where the amplitude of blocking is the most prominent, consistent with the previous studies. PV of these moist particles remains significantly lower compared to their dry counterparts throughout the course of 10 days, preferentially constituting blocking cores. Further analysis reveals that approximately two-thirds of the moist particles source their moisture locally from the Atlantic, while the remaining one-third from the Pacific. The Gulf Stream and Kuroshio and their extensions, as well as the eastern Pacific northeast of Hawaii, not only provide heat and moisture to the particles but also act as springboards for their large-scale, cross-isentropic ascent. While the particles of the Atlantic origin swiftly ascend just before their arrival at the blocking, those of the Pacific origin ascend additional few days earlier, after which they carry low PV in the same manner as dry particles. Thus, our study reveals that what may appear to be a blocking maintenance mechanism governed by dry dynamics alone can, in fact, be of moist origin.

scholarly journals Oceanic moisture sources contributing to wintertime Euro-Atlantic blocking

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 819-840
Author(s):  
Ayako Yamamoto ◽  
Masami Nonaka ◽  
Patrick Martineau ◽  
Akira Yamazaki ◽  
Young-Oh Kwon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Dry Process ◽  
Maintenance Mechanism ◽  
Moisture Sources ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Lagrangian Dispersion ◽  
Heat And Moisture

Abstract. Although conventionally attributed to dry dynamics, increasing evidence points to a key role of moist dynamics in the formation and maintenance of blocking events. The source of moisture crucial for these processes, however, remains elusive. In this study, we identify the moisture sources responsible for latent heating associated with the wintertime Euro-Atlantic blocking events detected over 31 years (1979–2010). To this end, we track atmospheric particles backward in time from the blocking centres for a period of 10 d using an offline Lagrangian dispersion model applied to atmospheric reanalysis data. The analysis reveals that 28 %–55 % of particles gain heat and moisture from the ocean over the course of 10 d, with higher percentages for the lower altitudes from which particles are released. Via large-scale ascent, these moist particles transport low-potential-vorticity (PV) air of low-altitude, low-latitude origins into the upper troposphere, where the amplitude of blocking is the most prominent, in agreement with previous studies. The PV of these moist particles remains significantly lower compared to their dry counterparts throughout the course of 10 d, preferentially constituting blocking cores. Further analysis reveals that approximately two-thirds of the moist particles source their moisture locally from the Atlantic, while the remaining one-third of moist particles source it from the Pacific. There is also a small fraction of moist particles that take up moisture from both the Pacific and Atlantic basins, which undergo a large-scale uplift over the Atlantic using moisture picked up over both basins. The Gulf Stream and Kuroshio and their extensions as well as the eastern Pacific northeast of Hawaii not only provide heat and moisture to moist particles but also act as “springboards” for their large-scale, cross-isentropic ascent, where its extent strongly depends on the humidity content at the time of the ascent. While the particles of Atlantic origin swiftly ascend just before their arrival at blocking, those of Pacific origin begin their ascent a few days earlier, after which they carry low-PV air in the upper troposphere while undergoing radiative cooling just as dry particles. A previous study identified a blocking maintenance mechanism, whereby low-PV air is selectively absorbed into blocking systems to prolong blocking lifetime. As they used an isentropic trajectory analysis, this mechanism was regarded as a dry process. We found that these moist particles that are fuelled over the Pacific can also act to maintain blocks in the same manner, revealing that what appears to be a blocking maintenance mechanism governed by dry dynamics alone can, in fact, be of moist origin.

scholarly journals TRACKING THE ORIGIN OF MOISTURE OVER SERBIA USING THE LAGRANGIAN METHOD

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
MILICA STOJANOVIĆ ◽  
DANICA ĆIRIĆ ◽  
RAQUEL NIETO ◽  
ANITA DRUMOND ◽  
EVICA STOJILJKOVIĆ ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Key Words ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Particle Dispersion ◽  
Lagrangian Method ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Atmospheric Moisture ◽  
Moisture Sources ◽  
Evaporation Minus Precipitation

In this study, we investigate the sources of moisture over Serbia using a Lagrangian method based on the FLEXPART V9.0 particle dispersion model combined with ERA-Interim reanalysis data, to track changes in atmospheric moisture. This approach computes the budget of evaporation-minus-precipitation by calculating changes in specific humidity along forward and backward trajectories. We considered a period of 34 years, from 1980 to 2014, which allowed the identification of climatological moisture sources and moisture transport towards the country. The results showed that Serbia receive moisture mainly from two sources: the Mediterranean Sea which is the dominant source during the winter (October-March) and the own region which predominate during the summer (April-September). Key words: moisture sources, Flexpart, Lagrangian method, Serbia

scholarly journals Technical note: The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART version 6.2

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 4739-4799 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Stohl ◽  
C. Forster ◽  
A. Frank ◽  
P. Seibert ◽  
G. Wotawa
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Particle Dispersion ◽  
Technical Note ◽  
Point Sources ◽  
Lagrangian Particle ◽  
Modeling And Analysis ◽  
Application Fields

Abstract. The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was originally (about 8 years ago) designed for calculating the long-range and mesoscale dispersion of air pollutants from point sources, such as after an accident in a nuclear power plant. In the meantime FLEXPART has evolved into a comprehensive tool for atmospheric transport modeling and analysis. Its application fields were extended from air pollution studies to other topics where atmospheric transport plays a role (e.g., exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere, or the global water cycle). It has evolved into a true community model that is now being used by at least 25 groups from 14 different countries and is seeing both operational and research applications. A user manual has been kept actual over the years and was distributed over an internet page along with the model's source code. However, so far there was no citeable description of FLEXPART. In this note we provide a description of FLEXPART's latest version (6.2).

scholarly journals Large-Scale Atmospheric Dispersal Simulations Identify Likely Airborne Incursion Routes of Wheat Stem Rust Into Ethiopia

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (10) ◽  
pp. 1175-1186 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Meyer ◽  
L. Burgin ◽  
M. C. Hort ◽  
D. P. Hodson ◽  
C. A. Gilligan
Keyword(s):  
Stem Rust ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Fungal Spores ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Particle Dispersion ◽  
East African ◽  
Wheat Stem Rust ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
African Rift

In recent years, severe wheat stem rust epidemics hit Ethiopia, sub-Saharan Africa’s largest wheat-producing country. These were caused by race TKTTF (Digalu race) of the pathogen Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici, which, in Ethiopia, was first detected at the beginning of August 2012. We use the incursion of this new pathogen race as a case study to determine likely airborne origins of fungal spores on regional and continental scales by means of a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM). Two different techniques, LPDM simulations forward and backward in time, are compared. The effects of release altitudes in time-backward simulations and P. graminis f. sp. tritici urediniospore viability functions in time-forward simulations are analyzed. Results suggest Yemen as the most likely origin but, also, point to other possible sources in the Middle East and the East African Rift Valley. This is plausible in light of available field surveys and phylogenetic data on TKTTF isolates from Ethiopia and other countries. Independent of the case involving TKTTF, we assess long-term dispersal trends (>10 years) to obtain quantitative estimates of the risk of exotic P. graminis f. sp. tritici spore transport (of any race) into Ethiopia for different ‘what-if’ scenarios of disease outbreaks in potential source countries in different months of the wheat season.

Development of a numerical approach to assess the effect of coupled heat and moisture transfer on energy consumption of residential buildings in Moroccan context

2021 ◽  
pp. 174425912110560
Author(s):  
Yassine Chbani Idrissi ◽  
Rafik Belarbi ◽  
Mohammed Yacine Ferroukhi ◽  
M’barek Feddaoui ◽  
Driss Agliz
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Building Materials ◽  
Moisture Transfer ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Building Design ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Heat And Moisture Transfer ◽  
Coupled Heat And Moisture ◽  
Heat And Moisture

Hygrothermal properties of building materials, climatic conditions and energy performance are interrelated and have to be considered simultaneously as part of an optimised building design. In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the energy consumption of residential buildings in Morocco is presented. This approach is based on the effect of coupled heat and moisture transfer in typical residential buildings and on their responses to the varied climatic conditions encountered in the country. This approach allows us to evaluate with better accuracy the response of building energy performance and the indoor comfort of building occupants. Annual energy consumption, cooling and heating energy requirements were estimated considering the six climatic zones of Morocco. Based on the results, terms related to coupled heat and moisture transfer can effectively correct the existing energy consumption calculations of the six zones of Morocco, which currently do not consider energy consumption due to coupled heat and moisture transfer.

scholarly journals Atmospheric rivers moisture sources from a Lagrangian perspective

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 371-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre M. Ramos ◽  
Raquel Nieto ◽  
Ricardo Tomé ◽  
Luis Gimeno ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Local Maximum ◽  
Detection Algorithm ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
Particle Dispersion ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
Moisture Uptake ◽  
Lagrangian Analysis ◽  
Data Set

Abstract. An automated atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean basin, allowing the identification of the major ARs affecting western European coasts between 1979 and 2012 over the winter half-year (October to March). The entire western coast of Europe was divided into five domains, namely the Iberian Peninsula (9.75° W, 36–43.75° N), France (4.5° W, 43.75–50° N), UK (4.5° W, 50–59° N), southern Scandinavia and the Netherlands (5.25° E, 50–59° N), and northern Scandinavia (5.25° E, 59–70° N). Following the identification of the main ARs that made landfall in western Europe, a Lagrangian analysis was then applied in order to identify the main areas where the moisture uptake was anomalous and contributed to the ARs reaching each domain. The Lagrangian data set used was obtained from the FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle dispersion) model global simulation from 1979 to 2012 and was forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis on a 1° latitude–longitude grid. The results show that, in general, for all regions considered, the major climatological areas for the anomalous moisture uptake extend along the subtropical North Atlantic, from the Florida Peninsula (northward of 20° N) to each sink region, with the nearest coast to each sink region always appearing as a local maximum. In addition, during AR events the Atlantic subtropical source is reinforced and displaced, with a slight northward movement of the sources found when the sink region is positioned at higher latitudes. In conclusion, the results confirm not only the anomalous advection of moisture linked to ARs from subtropical ocean areas but also the existence of a tropical source, together with midlatitude anomaly sources at some locations closer to AR landfalls.

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