A multi-risk assessment of water scarcity in the south-eastern Italian Alps using a System Dynamics approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Terzi ◽  
Janez Sušnik ◽  
Sara Masia ◽  
Silvia Torresan ◽  
Stefan Schneiderbauer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
High Water ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Multiple Impacts ◽  
Dam Reservoirs

<p>Mountain regions are facing multiple impacts due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. Shifts in precipitation and temperature are affecting the available water influencing a variety of economic activities that still rely on large quantities of water (e.g. ski tourism, energy production and agriculture). The Alps are among those areas where recent events of decreased water availability triggered emerging water disputes and spread of economic impacts across multiple sectors and from upstream high water availability areas to downstream high water demand areas. In order to make our water management systems more resilient, there is a need to unravel the interplays and dependencies that can lead to multiple impacts across multiple sectors. However, current assessments dealing with climate change usually account for a mono sectoral and single risk perspective.</p><p>This study hence shows an integrative assessment of multi-risk processes across strategic sectors of the Alpine economy. System dynamics modelling (SDM) is applied as a powerful tool to evaluate the multiple impacts stemming from interactions and feedbacks among water-food-energy economic sectors of the Noce river catchment in the Province of Trento (Italy).</p><p>The SDM developed for the Noce catchment combined outputs from physically based models to evaluate water availability and statistical assessments for water demands from three main sectors: (i) apple orchards cultivation, (ii) water releases from large dam reservoirs for hydropower production and (iii) domestic and seasonal tourism activities.</p><p>Hydrological results have been validated on historical time series (i.e. 2009-2017) and projected in the future considering RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios for 2021-2050 medium term and 2041-2070 long term. Results show a precipitation decrease affecting river streamflow with consequences on water stored and turbined in all dam reservoirs of the Noce catchment, especially for long-term climate change scenarios. Moreover, temperature scenarios will increase the amount of water used for agricultural irrigation from upstream to downstream. Nevertheless, decreasing population projections will have a beneficial reduction of water demand from residents, counterbalancing the increasing demand from the other sectors.</p><p>Finally, the integrated SDM fostered discussions in the Noce catchment on interplays between climate change and anthropogenic activities to tackle climate-related water scarcity.</p>

scholarly journals Stochastic System Dynamics Modelling for climate change water scarcity assessment on a reservoir in the Italian Alps

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Terzi ◽  
Janez Sušnik ◽  
Stefan Schneiderbauer ◽  
Silvia Torresan ◽  
Andrea Critto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Stochastic System ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Short Term ◽  
System Dynamics Modelling ◽  
Dynamics Modelling

Abstract. Water management in mountain regions is facing multiple pressures due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. This is particularly relevant for mountain areas where water abundance in the past allowed for many anthropogenic activities, exposing them to future water scarcity. To better understand the processes involved in water scarcity impact, an innovative stochastic System Dynamics Modelling (SDM) explores water stored and turbined in the S.Giustina reservoir (Province of Trento, Italy). The integration of outputs from climate change simulations as well as from a hydrological model and statistical models into the SDM is a quick and effective tool to simulate past and future water availability and demand conditions. Short-term RCP4.5 simulations depict conditions of highest volume and outflow reductions starting in spring (−16.1 % and −44.7 % in May compared to the baseline). Long-term RCP8.5 simulations suggest conditions of volume and outflow reductions starting in summer and lasting until the end of the year. The number of events with stored water below the 30th and above the 80th quantiles suggest a general reduction both in terms of low and high volumes. These results call for the need to adapt to acute short-term water availability reductions in spring and summer while preparing for hydroelectric production reductions due to the chronic long-term trends affecting autumn and mid-winter. This study provides results and methodological insights for potential SDM upscaling across strategic mountain socio-economic sectors (e.g., hydropower, agriculture and tourism) to expand water scarcity assessments and prepare for future multi-risk conditions and impacts.

scholarly journals Long-Term Variability in Potential Evapotranspiration, Water Availability and Drought under Climate Change Scenarios in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahtsente Tadese ◽  
Lalit Kumar ◽  
Richard Koech
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Awash River Basin ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change

Understanding the hydrological processes of a watershed in response to climate change is vital to the establishment of sustainable environmental management strategies. This study aimed to evaluate the variability of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and water availability in the Awash River Basin (ARB) under different climate change scenarios and to relate these with long-term drought occurrences in the area. The PET and water availability of the ARB was estimated during the period of 1995–2009 and two future scenarios (2050s and 2070s). The representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) simulations showed an increase in the monthly mean PET from March to August in the 2050s, and all the months in the 2070s. The study also identified a shortage of net water availability in the majority of the months investigated and the occurrence of mild to extreme drought in about 40–50% of the analysed years at the three study locations (Holetta, Koka Dam, and Metehara). The decrease in water availability and an increase in PET, combined with population growth, will aggravate the drought occurrence and food insecurity in the ARB. Therefore, integrated watershed management systems and rehabilitation of forests, as well as water bodies, should be addressed in the ARB to mitigate climate change and water shortage in the area.

scholarly journals Assessing Water Security in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region Under Projected Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriela C. Gesualdo ◽  
Paulo Tarso S. Oliveira ◽  
Dulce B. B. Rodrigues ◽  
Hoshin V. Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract. Climate change affects the global water cycle and has the potential to alter water availability for food-energy-water production, and for ecosystems services, on regional and local scales. An understanding these effects is crucial to assessing future water availability, and for the development of sustainable management plans. Here, we investigate the influence of anticipated climate change on water security in the Jaguari Basin, which is the main source of freshwater for 9 million people in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR). First, we calibrate and evaluate a hydrological model using daily observed data, obtaining satisfactory Coefficient of Determination and Kling-Gupta efficiency values for both periods. To represent possible climate change scenarios up to 2095, we consider two International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and use an ensemble of future projections generated by 17 General Circulation Models (GCMs). These data were used to drive the hydrological model to generate projected scenarios of streamflow. Then we used indicators of water scarcity and vulnerability to carry out a quantitative analysis of provision probability. Our results indicate that streamflow can be expected to exhibit increased interannual variability, significant increases in flow rate between January and March, and an extension of the dry season (currently June to September) until November. The latter includes more than 35 % reduction in streamflow during September through November (with > 50 % reduction in October). Our findings indicate an increased risk of floods and droughts accompanied by an expansion of the basin critical period, and our analysis of the Water Security Indices identifies October and November as the most vulnerable months. Overall, our analysis exposes the fragility of water security in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, and provides valuable technical and scientific information that can be used to guide regional plans and strategies to cope with potential future water scarcity.

scholarly journals Water Availability–Demand Balance under Climate Change Scenarios in an Overpopulated Region of Mexico

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1846
Author(s):  
Jessica Bravo-Cadena ◽  
Numa P. Pavón ◽  
Patricia Balvanera ◽  
Gerardo Sánchez-Rojas ◽  
Ramón Razo-Zarate
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Deficit ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Footprint ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change scenarios show that water availability could be decreasing in the near future, adding to the increasing problem of the growing water demands in socioeconomic sectors. The aim of this work was to generate a geographically explicit water balance concerning availability vs. demand in an overpopulated region of Mexico. Water balance and water deficit models were made for three periods of time: 1970–2000, and two future periods of time (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Three global climate models were used in addition to two different climate scenarios from each (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.6 and RCP 8.5). Water demand for socioeconomic sectors was calculated through the water footprint. Water availability was 197,644.58 hm3/year, while that the water demand was 59,187 hm3/year. The socioeconomic sectors with the highest demand were domestic services (48%), agriculture (27%), livestock agriculture (20%), and timber production (5%). The highest water availability areas were not the same as those with the highest demand and vice versa. However, 39% of municipalities had a higher water demand than its availability. A significant reduction in water availability was identified, considering an interval of −15% to 40%. This variation depends on climate models, scenarios, and period of time. Areas with overpopulated cities in the region would have higher pressure on water availability. These results could be used in the implementation of public policies by focusing on adaptation strategies to reduce water deficit in the immediate future.

scholarly journals Assessment of Water Availability and Demand in Goronyo Reservoir Sokoto, Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman A Muhammed ◽  
Abubakar Ismail ◽  
Babatunde K Adeogun ◽  
Sulaiman A Abdullahi ◽  
Ismail M Sanni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Variation ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Unmet Demand ◽  
Annual Total

Climatic parameters are subjected to variation due to atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, so it is essential to assess the water availability and demand under the climate variation in Goronyo reservoir since supply of water is one of the significant tasks in water resources management. In this study, estimation of available water, demand and unmet demand was simulated using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Software with the opinion of assessing the availability of the water for it use under climate change. Firstly, the climatic data was obtained and used to simulate the surface water situation with the model. Secondly, the data was projected based on the initial model output and compared with the existing (observed) data. The comparison involved calibration and validation with the recorded data of river flow. Thirdly, the hypothetical climate change Scenarios were applied to the model so as to know what is to be expected if climate changes. Thus, the model was used to analyse what happened to demand and water availability in the study area. The study found the demand and Unmet demand as the output of the model, and the result showed that the annual total demand for various uses from 2018 to 2070 is 7076.4 million cubic meters (MCM) and annual average of 133.4 million cubic meters (MCM). Meanwhile, the unmet demand ranges from annual total of 1157.5 million cubic meters to 1199.7 million cubic meters and annual average of 21.84 MCM to 22.64 MCM. From the result the highest unmet was recorded under the worst scenario i.e. scenario 9 with 1.2oC increase in temperature and 10% decrease in precipitation. In Conclusion, it was found that the demand in the area is 6 times higher in years to come i.e. 50 years from now and deficit is 61% increased.Keywords – Climate variation, Goronyo Reservoir, Water Demand and Unmet

scholarly journals Assessing water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region under projected climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (12) ◽  
pp. 4955-4968 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo ◽  
Paulo Tarso Oliveira ◽  
Dulce Buchala Bicca Rodrigues ◽  
Hoshin Vijai Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract. Climate change affects the global water cycle and has the potential to alter water availability for food–energy–water production, and for ecosystems services, on regional and local scales. An understanding of these effects is crucial for assessing future water availability, and for the development of sustainable management plans. Here, we investigate the influence of anticipated climate change on water security in the Jaguari Basin, which is the main source of freshwater for 9 million people in the São Paulo metropolitan region (SPMR). First, we calibrate and evaluate a hydrological model using daily observed data, obtaining satisfactory coefficient of determination and Kling–Gupta efficiency values for both periods. To represent possible climate change scenarios up to 2095, we consider two International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and use an ensemble of future projections generated by 17 general circulation models (GCMs). These data were used to drive the hydrological model to generate projected scenarios of streamflow. We then used indicators of water scarcity and vulnerability to carry out a quantitative analysis of provision probability. Our results indicate that streamflow can be expected to exhibit increased interannual variability, significant increases in flow rate between January and March, and a 2-month extension of the hydrological dry season (currently June to September) until November. The latter includes a more than a 35 % reduction in streamflow during September through November (with a > 50 % reduction in October). Our findings indicate an increased risk of floods and droughts accompanied by an expansion of the basin critical period, and our analysis of the water security indices identifies October and November as the most vulnerable months. Overall, our analysis exposes the fragility of water security in the São Paulo metropolitan region, and provides valuable technical and scientific information that can be used to guide regional plans and strategies to cope with potential future water scarcity.

scholarly journals Assessing the long-term effectiveness of Nature-Based Solutions under different climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
pp. 148515
Author(s):  
Eulalia Gómez Martín ◽  
María Máñez Costa ◽  
Sabine Egerer ◽  
Uwe Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

scholarly journals The Influence of Climate and Land-Cover Scenarios on Dam Management Strategies in a High Water Pressure Catchment in Northeast Spain

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1668 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Zabalza-Martínez ◽  
S. Vicente-Serrano ◽  
J. López-Moreno ◽  
G. Borràs Calvo ◽  
R. Savé ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Water Pressure ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
High Water ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Dam Management ◽  
Dam Inflow ◽  
Similar Decrease

This paper evaluates the response of streamflow in a Mediterranean medium-scaled basin under land-use and climate change scenarios and its plausible implication on the management of Boadella–Darnius reservoir (NE Spain). Land cover and climate change scenarios supposed over the next several decades were used to simulate reservoir inflow using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESsys) and to analyze the future impacts on water management (2021–2050). Results reveal a clear decrease in dam inflow (−34%) since the dam was operational from 1971 to 2013. The simulations obtained with RHESsys show a similar decrease (−31%) from 2021 to 2050. Considering the ecological minimum flow outlined by water authorities and the projected decrease in reservoir’s inflows, different water management strategies are needed to mitigate the effects of the expected climate change.

scholarly journals Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 3785-3808 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Wada ◽  
L. P. H. van Beek ◽  
M. F. P. Bierkens
Keyword(s):  
Water Stress ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Blue Water ◽  
Global Population

Abstract. During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960–2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which are subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes, wetlands and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We thus define blue water stress by comparing blue water availability with corresponding net total blue water demand by means of the commonly used, Water Scarcity Index. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e. moderate to high water stress) due to growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which has more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr−1 (gross/net) over the period 1960–2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27% of the global population were living under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number is eventually increased to 2.6 billion or 43% for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is a decisive factor for heightened water stress in various regions such as India and North China, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200%, while climate variability is often a main determinant of extreme events. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies (e.g. India, Turkey, Romania and Cuba) some of past extreme events were anthropogenically driven due to increased water demand rather than being climate-induced.

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