Snowmelt contribution to seasonal runoff: Lessons learned from using a bucket-type model on a large set of catchments

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Jenicek ◽  
Ondrej Ledvinka
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Snow Storage ◽  
The Future ◽  
Seasonal Runoff ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Catchment Runoff

<p>The streamflow seasonality in mountain catchments is largely influenced by snow. However, a shift from snowfall to rain is expected in the future. Consequently, a decrease in snow storage and earlier snowmelt is predicted, which will cause changes in spring and summer runoff. The objectives of this study were to quantify 1) how inter-annual variations in snow storages affect spring and summer runoff, including summer low flows and 2) the importance of snowmelt in generating runoff compared to rainfall. The snow storage, groundwater recharge and streamflow were simulated for 59 mountain catchments in Czechia in the period 1980–2014 using a bucket-type catchment model. The model performance was evaluated against observed daily runoff and snow water equivalent. Hypothetical simulations were performed, which allowed us to analyse the effect of inter-annual variations in snow storage on seasonal runoff separately from other components of the water balance. This was done in the HBV snow routine using the threshold temperature T<sub>T</sub> that differentiates between snow and rain and sets the air temperature of snowmelt onset. By changing the T<sub>T</sub>, we can control the amount of accumulated snow and snowmelt timing, while other variables remain unaffected.</p><p>The results showed that 17-42% (26% on average) of the total runoff in study catchments originates as snowmelt, despite the fact that only 12-37% (20% on average) of the precipitation falls as snow. This means that snow is more effective in generating catchment runoff compared to liquid precipitation. This was documented by modelling experiments which showed that total annual runoff and groundwater recharge decreases in the case of a precipitation shift from snow to rain. In general, snow-poor years are clearly characterized by a lower snowmelt runoff contribution compared to snow-rich years in the analysed period. Additionally, snowmelt started earlier in these snow-poor years and caused lower groundwater recharge. This also affected summer baseflow. For most of the catchments, the lowest summer baseflow was reached in years with both relatively low summer precipitation and snow storage. This showed that summer low flows (directly related to baseflow) in our study catchments are not only a function of low precipitation and high evapotranspiration, but they are significantly affected by previous winter snowpack. This effect might intensify the summer low flows in the future when generally less snow is expected.</p><p>Modelling experiments also opened further questions related to model structure and parameterization, specifically how individual model procedures and parameters represent the real natural processes. To understand potential model artefacts might be important when using HBV or similar bucket-type models for impact studies, such as modelling the impact of climate change on catchment runoff.</p>

scholarly journals Importance of snowmelt contribution to seasonal runoff and summer low flows in Czechia

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (7) ◽  
pp. 3475-3491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Jenicek ◽  
Ondrej Ledvinka
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Total Runoff ◽  
Snow Storage ◽  
The Future ◽  
Seasonal Runoff

Abstract. The streamflow seasonality in mountain catchments is often influenced by snow. However, a shift from snowfall to rain is expected in the future. Consequently, a decrease in snow storage and earlier snowmelt is predicted, which will cause changes not only in seasonal runoff distribution in snow-dominated catchments, but it may also affect the total annual runoff. The objectives of this study were to quantify (1) how inter-annual variations in snow storages affect spring and summer runoff, including summer low flows, and (2) the importance of snowmelt in generating runoff compared to rainfall. The snow storage, groundwater recharge and streamflow were simulated for 59 mountain catchments in Czechia in the period from 1980 to 2014 using a bucket-type catchment model. The model output was evaluated against observed daily runoff and snow water equivalent. Hypothetical scenarios were performed, which allowed for analysing the effect of inter-annual variations in snow storage on seasonal runoff separately from other components of the water balance. The results showed that 17 %–42 % (26 % on average) of the total runoff in the study catchments originates as snowmelt, despite the fact that only 12 %–37 % (20 % on average) of the precipitation falls as snow. This means that snow is more effective in generating catchment runoff compared to liquid precipitation. This was demonstrated by modelling experiments which showed that total annual runoff and groundwater recharge decrease in the case of a precipitation shift from snow to rain. In general, snow-poor years were clearly characterized by a lower snowmelt runoff contribution compared to snow-rich years in the analysed period. Additionally, snowmelt started earlier in these snow-poor years and caused lower groundwater recharge. This also affected summer baseflow. For most of the catchments, the lowest summer baseflow was reached in years with both relatively low summer precipitation and snow storage. This showed that summer low flows (directly related to baseflow) in our study catchments are not only a function of low precipitation and high evapotranspiration, but they are significantly affected by the previous winter snowpack. This effect might intensify drought periods in the future when generally less snow is expected.

scholarly journals Importance of snowmelt contribution to seasonal runoff and summer low flows in Czechia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Jenicek ◽  
Ondrej Ledvinka
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Snow Storage ◽  
The Future ◽  
Seasonal Runoff

Abstract. The streamflow seasonality in mountain catchments is largely influenced by snow. However, a shift from snowfall to rain is expected in the future. Consequently, a decrease in snow storage and earlier snowmelt is predicted, which will cause changes in spring and summer runoff. The objectives of this study were to quantify 1) how inter-annual variations in snow storages affect spring and summer runoff, including summer low flows and 2) the importance of snowmelt in generating runoff compared to rainfall. The snow storage, groundwater recharge and streamflow were simulated for 59 mountain catchments in Czechia in the period 1980–2014 using a bucket-type catchment model. The model performance was evaluated against observed daily runoff and snow water equivalent. Hypothetical simulations were performed, which allowed us to analyse the effect of inter-annual variations in snow storage on seasonal runoff separately from other components of the water balance. The results showed that 17–42 % (26 % on average) of the total runoff in study catchments originates as snowmelt, despite the fact that only 12–37 % (20 % on average) of the precipitation falls as snow. This means that snow is more effective in generating catchment runoff compared to liquid precipitation. This was documented by modelling experiments which showed that total annual runoff and groundwater recharge decreases in the case of a precipitation shift from snow to rain. In general, snow-poor years are clearly characterized by a lower snowmelt runoff contribution compared to snow-rich years in the analysed period. Additionally, snowmelt started earlier in these snow-poor years and caused lower groundwater recharge. This also affected summer baseflow. For most of the catchments, the lowest summer baseflow was reached in years with both relatively low summer precipitation and snow storage. This showed that summer low flows (directly related to baseflow) in our study catchments are not only a function of low precipitation and high evapotranspiration, but they are significantly affected by previous winter snowpack. This effect might intensify the summer low flows in the future when generally less snow is expected.

Snowpack energy balance and changes in the frequency and extremity of rain-on-snow events in the warming climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ondrej Hotovy ◽  
Michal Jenicek
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
The Future ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Catchment Runoff

<p>Seasonal snowpack significantly influences the catchment runoff and thus represents an important input for the hydrological cycle. Changes in the precipitation distribution and intensity, as well as a shift from snowfall to rain is expected in the future due to climate changes. As a result, rain-on-snow events, which are considered to be one of the main causes of floods in winter and spring, may occur more frequently. Heat from liquid precipitation constitutes one of the snowpack energy balance components. Consequently, snowmelt and runoff may be strongly affected by these temperature and precipitation changes.</p><p>The objective of this study is 1) to evaluate the frequency, inter-annual variability and extremity of rain-on-snow events in the past based on existing measurements together with an analysis of changes in the snowpack energy balance, and 2) to simulate the effect of predicted increase in air temperature on the occurrence of rain-on-snow events in the future. We selected 40 near-natural mountain catchments in Czechia with significant snow influence on runoff and with available long-time series (>35 years) of daily hydrological and meteorological variables. A semi-distributed conceptual model, HBV-light, was used to simulate the individual components of the water cycle at a catchment scale. The model was calibrated for each of study catchments by using 100 calibration trials which resulted in respective number of optimized parameter sets. The model performance was evaluated against observed runoff and snow water equivalent. Rain-on-snow events definition by threshold values for air temperature, snow depth, rain intensity and snow water equivalent decrease allowed us to analyze inter-annual variations and trends in rain-on-snow events during the study period 1965-2019 and to explain the role of different catchment attributes.</p><p>The preliminary results show that a significant change of rain-on-snow events related to increasing air temperature is not clearly evident. Since both air temperature and elevation seem to be an important rain-on-snow drivers, there is an increasing rain-on-snow events occurrence during winter season due to a decrease in snowfall fraction. In contrast, a decrease in total number of events was observed due to the shortening of the period with existing snow cover on the ground. Modelling approach also opened further questions related to model structure and parameterization, specifically how individual model procedures and parameters represent the real natural processes. To understand potential model artefacts might be important when using HBV or similar bucket-type models for impact studies, such as modelling the impact of climate change on catchment runoff.</p>

Changes in snow storages and their impact on occurrence and extremity of runoff caused by rain-on-snow events

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ondrej Hotovy ◽  
Michal Jenicek
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
The Future ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Catchment Runoff

<p>Seasonal snowpack significantly influences the catchment runoff and thus represents an important input for the hydrological cycle. Changes in the precipitation distribution and intensity, as well as a shift from snowfall to rain is expected in the future due to climate changes. As a result, rain-on-snow events, which are considered to be one of the main causes of floods in winter and spring, may occur more frequently.</p><p>The objective of this study is 1) to evaluate the frequency, inter-annual variability and extremity of rain-on-snow events in the past based on existing measurements and 2) to simulate the effect of predicted increase in air temperature on the occurrence of rain-on-snow events in the future. We selected 59 near-natural mountain catchments in Czechia with significant snow influence on runoff and with available long-time series (>35 years) of daily hydrological and meteorological variables. A semi-distributed conceptual model, HBV-light, was used to simulate the individual components of the water cycle at a catchment scale. The model was calibrated for each of study catchments by using 100 calibration trials which resulted in respective number of optimized parameter sets. The model performance was evaluated against observed runoff and snow water equivalent. Rain-on-snow events definition by threshold values for air temperature, snow depth, rain intensity and snow water equivalent decrease allowed us to analyze inter-annual variations and trends in rain-on-snow events during the study period 1980-2014 and to explain the role of different catchment attributes.</p><p>The preliminary results show that a significant change of rain-on-snow events related to increasing air temperature is not clearly evident. Since both air temperature and elevation seem to be an important rain-on-snow drivers, there is an increasing rain-on-snow events occurrence during winter season due to a decrease in snowfall fraction. In contrast, a decrease in total number of events was observed due to the shortening of the period with existing snow cover on the ground. Modelling approach also opened further questions related to model structure and parameterization, specifically how individual model procedures and parameters represent the real natural processes. To understand potential model artefacts might be important when using HBV or similar bucket-type models for impact studies, such as modelling the impact of climate change on catchment runoff.</p>

scholarly journals Importance of maximum snow accumulation for summer low flows in humid catchments

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 859-874 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Jenicek ◽  
Jan Seibert ◽  
Massimiliano Zappa ◽  
Maria Staudinger ◽  
Tobias Jonas
Keyword(s):  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Snow Storage ◽  
Winter Snow ◽  
Lower Elevation ◽  
Alpine Catchments

Abstract. Winter snow accumulation obviously has an effect on the following catchment runoff. The question is, however, how long this effect lasts and how important it is compared to rainfall inputs. Here we investigate the relative importance of snow accumulation on one critical aspect of runoff, namely the summer low flow. This is especially relevant as the expected increase of air temperature might result in decreased snow storage. A decrease of snow will affect soil and groundwater storages during spring and might cause low streamflow values in the subsequent warm season. To understand these potential climate change impacts, a better evaluation of the effects of inter-annual variations in snow accumulation on summer low flow under current conditions is central. The objective in this study was (1) to quantify how long snowmelt affects runoff after melt-out and (2) to estimate the sensitivity of catchments with different elevation ranges to changes in snowpack. To find suitable predictors of summer low flow we used long time series from 14 Alpine and pre-Alpine catchments in Switzerland and computed different variables quantifying winter and spring snow conditions. In general, the results indicated that maximum winter snow water equivalent (SWE) influenced summer low flow, but could expectedly only partly explain the observed inter-annual variations. On average, a decrease of maximum SWE by 10 % caused a decrease of minimum discharge in July by 6–9 % in catchments higher than 2000 m a.s.l. This effect was smaller in middle- and lower-elevation catchments with a decrease of minimum discharge by 2–5 % per 10 % decrease of maximum SWE. For higher- and middle-elevation catchments and years with below-average SWE maximum, the minimum discharge in July decreased to 70–90 % of its normal level. Additionally, a reduction in SWE resulted in earlier low-flow occurrence in some cases. One other important factor was the precipitation between maximum SWE and summer low flow. When only dry preceding conditions in this period were considered, the importance of maximum SWE as a predictor of low flows increased. We assessed the sensitivity of individual catchments to the change of maximum SWE using the non-parametric Theil–Sen approach as well as an elasticity index. Both sensitivity indicators increased with increasing mean catchment elevation, indicating a higher sensitivity of summer low flow to snow accumulation in Alpine catchments compared to lower-elevation pre-Alpine catchments.

Future changes in snow and its influence on seasonal runoff and low flows in Czechia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Jenicek ◽  
Jan Hnilica ◽  
Ondrej Nedelcev ◽  
Vaclav Sipek
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
Seasonal Runoff

<p>Mountains are often called as “water towers” because they substantially affect hydrology of downstream areas. However, snow storages are decreasing and snow melts earlier mainly due to air temperature increase. These changes largely affect seasonal runoff distribution, including summer low flows and thus influence the water availability. Therefore, it is important to investigate the future change in relation between snow and summer low flows, specifically to assess a wide range of hydrological responses to different climate predictions. Therefore, the main objectives of this study were 1) to simulate the future changes in snow storages for a large set of mountain catchments representing different elevations and to 2) analyse how the changes in snow storages will affect streamflow seasonality and low flows in the future reflecting a wide range of climate predictions. The predictions of the future climate from EURO-CORDEX experiment for 59 mountain catchments in Czechia were considered. These data were further used to drive a bucket-type catchment model, HBV-light, to simulate individual components of the rainfall-runoff process for the reference period and three future periods.</p><p>Future simulations showed a dramatic decrease in snow-related variables for all catchments at all elevations. For example, annual maximum SWE decreased by 30%-70% until the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century compared to the current climate. Additionally, the snow will melt on average by 3-4 weeks earlier in the future. The results also showed the large variability between individual climate chains and indicated that the increase in air temperature causing the decrease in snowfall might be partly compensated by the increase in winter precipitation. Expected changes in snowpack will cause by a month earlier period with highest streamflow during melting season in addition to lower spring runoff volume due to lower snowmelt inputs. The future climate scenarios leading to overall dry conditions in summer are associated with both lowest summer precipitation and seasonal snowpack. The expected lower snow storages might therefore contribute to more extreme low flow periods. The results also showed considerably smaller changes for the RCP 2.6 scenario compared to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 both in terms snow storages and seasonal runoff. The results are therefore important for mitigation and adaptation strategy related to climate change impacts in mountain regions.</p>

ASSESSMENT OF CHANGES IN THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE WATER, SNOW AND ICE REGIMES IN THE BASINS OF THE SMALL NORTHERN DVINA RIVER UNDER MODERN CONDITIONS AND THEIR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE FUTURE

2021 ◽  
pp. 117-127
Author(s):  
M. V. GEORGIEVSKY ◽  
◽  
N. I. GOROSHKOVA ◽  
V. A. KHOMYAKOVA ◽  
A. V. STRIZHENOK
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Spring Runoff ◽  
The Future ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Project Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Slight Downward Trend

The article presents an analysis of the impact of climate change on the main characteristics of ice phenomena, snow cover and the water regime in the Small Northern Dvina River basin occurring in recent decades. Recently, a significant climate warming has been observed in the basin. As a result, winters are getting warmer and shorter. There is also an increase in winter precipitation and the number of thaws. Climate warming directly affects the duration of snow cover, which decreases both due to the later formation and to the earlier destruction of snow. There is also a slight downward trend in the annual values of the maximum snow water equivalent, which may be the result of an increase in the number of thaws in winter, when a part of the snow cover melts contributing to the winter river runoff. The analysis of the main characteristics of the ice cover on the rivers of the studied basin shows that their changes are similarly to changes in the snow cover: there is a reduction in the freeze-up period due to its later formation and earlier complete destruction. The maximum ice thickness on the rivers of the basin also tends to decrease. There is an increase in winter and a decrease in spring runoff. Predictive estimates of changes in the observed trends in the future are presented in the fi nal part of the article based on the CMIP5 project data.

On-demand assessment of air traffic impact of blocking airspace

2018 ◽  
Vol 122 (1258) ◽  
pp. 1985-2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Srivastava ◽  
T. St. Clair ◽  
G. Pan
Keyword(s):  
Air Traffic ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Projection Model ◽  
Traffic Demand ◽  
Traffic Pattern ◽  
On Demand ◽  
Demand Assessment ◽  
The Future ◽  
Traffic Impact ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTThe Federal Aviation Administration often blocks strategically located airspace volumes to ensure safety during a variety of operations that are potentially hazardous to aircraft, such as space launches. As the frequency of these operations increases, there is a growing need to deepen collaboration and transparency between stakeholders regarding the use of airspace. This collaboration can be supported by models and capabilities to quickly assess the impact of airspace closures, up to 12 months into the future. This paper presents a technique to enable a ‘what-if’ analysis capability coupled with a prediction model, whereby changes in airspace dimension, location, and activation time are reflected instantaneously as measures of projected impact. The technique can also be used for quick post-operations analysis using historical traffic data and to develop air traffic impact assessment capabilities accessible to a broad range of users outside of the air traffic domain. This research has three key components: developing a model to predict air traffic demand up to 12 months into the future, modelling air traffic impact to the affected traffic, and reducing this information into a data structure that can support on-demand analysis. The focus of this paper is on new techniques to predict demand using a large set of historical track data and further encode these projections to support the quick assessment of the impact of blocking various airspace volumes. Initial results show that the proposed data reduction scheme accurately represented the traffic crossing an airspace and resulted in data size reduction by over 50%. The projection model performed well, the actual number of impacted flights were within the estimated range of approximately 80% of the time. Finally, the responsiveness of the web-based prototype developed to illustrate the concept demonstrated the model’s ability to support an on-demand assessment of the air traffic impact of blocking airspace. A significant limitation of the projection model is that it is based on the historical traffic pattern within the U.S. airspace; separate analysis is needed to adapt it to other geographical location.

scholarly journals Importance of maximum snow accumulation for summer low flows in humid catchments

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 7023-7056 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Jenicek ◽  
J. Seibert ◽  
M. Zappa ◽  
M. Staudinger ◽  
T. Jonas
Keyword(s):  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Lower Elevation ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Snow Conditions ◽  
Alpine Catchments

Abstract. The expected increase of air temperature will increase the ratio of liquid to solid precipitation during winter and, thus decrease the amount of snow, especially in mid-elevation mountain ranges across Europe. The decrease of snow will affect groundwater recharge during spring and might cause low streamflow values in the subsequent summer period. To evaluate these potential climate change impacts, we investigated the effects of inter-annual variations in snow accumulation on summer low flow and addressed the following research questions: (1) how important is snow for summer low flows and how long is the "memory effect" in catchments with different elevations? (2) How sensitive are summer low flows to any change of winter snowpack? To find suitable predictors of summer low flow we used long time series from 14 alpine and pre-alpine catchments in Switzerland and computed different variables quantifying winter and spring snow conditions. We assessed the sensitivity of individual catchments to the change of maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax) using the non-parametric Theil–Sen approach as well as an elasticity index. In general, the results indicated that maximum winter snow accumulation influenced summer low flow, but could only partly explain the observed inter-annual variations. One other important factor was the precipitation between maximum snow accumulation and summer low flow. When only the years with below average precipitation amounts during this period were considered, the importance of snow accumulation as a predictor of low flows increased. The slope of the regression between SWEmax and summer low flow and the elasticity index both increased with increasing mean catchment elevation. This indicated a higher sensitivity of summer low flow to snow accumulation in alpine catchments compared to lower elevation catchments.

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