Analysis of precipitation concentration degree changes and its spatial evolution in the western plain of Jilin Province

In order to study temporal and spatial evolution of the precipitation concentration degree and period in Western Plains of Jilin during the crop growing season and then adjust irrigation strategy, this paper studied the spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation. Results are as follows: In the growing season from nearly 35 years, the decrease of precipitation during the growing season contributed more to the reduction of interannual precipitation. The maximum precipitation and precipitation duration showed a slight downward trend whereas the minimum precipitation was reversed. Precipitation duration gradually increased from west to east. In the past 35 years, the precipitation concentration degree (PCD) decreased by linear function of “y = -0.0018x + 0.4655”, indicating that the precipitation exhibited a trend of balanced distribution. The PCD decreased from the northwest to the southeast. From the precipitation concentration period (PCP), it changed from early July to late July. In summary, it was important to strengthen the staged drought-preparedness contingency plans in the region.

PSEUDO-MULTIVARIATE LSTM NEURAL NETWORK APPROACH FOR PURCHASE DAY PREDICTION IN B2B

This research focuses on trying to predict the moment of the next purchase for a customer in vendor-customer B2B scenario using an LSTM neural network and comparing prediction results from different input features. In a previous research we performed predictions for a specific customer product pair and used previous purchases for that pair as input data, but the number of such previous purchases was often very limited which resulted in low accuracy of predictions. By aggregating purchase data for all products a customer purchased, we were able to get more precise predictions of the next purchase. Additionally, expanding our input feature set yielded even better results. We performed an evaluation of LSTM networks trained with the most successful combination of input features for a six month period. Each of the networks was trained with purchase data up to the starting point of the selected period and the predictions were performed, after which additional input for the following seven days was added to the network. This process was then repeated for the entire six month period and a slight downward trend can be noticed for error metrics, leading to the conclusion that the network would perform even better over time with the addition of future purchases.

ASSESSMENT OF CHANGES IN THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE WATER, SNOW AND ICE REGIMES IN THE BASINS OF THE SMALL NORTHERN DVINA RIVER UNDER MODERN CONDITIONS AND THEIR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE FUTURE

The article presents an analysis of the impact of climate change on the main characteristics of ice phenomena, snow cover and the water regime in the Small Northern Dvina River basin occurring in recent decades. Recently, a significant climate warming has been observed in the basin. As a result, winters are getting warmer and shorter. There is also an increase in winter precipitation and the number of thaws. Climate warming directly affects the duration of snow cover, which decreases both due to the later formation and to the earlier destruction of snow. There is also a slight downward trend in the annual values of the maximum snow water equivalent, which may be the result of an increase in the number of thaws in winter, when a part of the snow cover melts contributing to the winter river runoff. The analysis of the main characteristics of the ice cover on the rivers of the studied basin shows that their changes are similarly to changes in the snow cover: there is a reduction in the freeze-up period due to its later formation and earlier complete destruction. The maximum ice thickness on the rivers of the basin also tends to decrease. There is an increase in winter and a decrease in spring runoff. Predictive estimates of changes in the observed trends in the future are presented in the fi nal part of the article based on the CMIP5 project data.

Spatial heterogeneity in and distributional characteristics of rural ecological livability in China——The case of Fujian Province

With the outbreak of COVID-19, the importance of rural areas has been gradually highlighted, and the importance of rural ecological livability has been gradually recognized. A growing body of literature recognizes the importance of building a rural ecological livability (REL) system. It is urgent that we clarify the status quo and spatial-temporal differences in and distributional characteristics of rural ecological livability and that we carry out targeted and differentiated construction to promote rural ecological livability in post-epidemic China. This study proposes a conceptual model that incorporates various economic, social and environmental factors and develops a comprehensive multifactor (production-living-ecology) evaluation system. Using Fujian Province as an example, the entropy weight method is used to measure the REL level of 55 counties and cities, which are comprehensively evaluated from 2015 to 2019. Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi* are used to analyze the spatial and distributional characteristics of the REL level in Fujian. The results show that the level of REL in Fujian Province has been relatively flat over the past five years, with a slight downward trend. The overall value of the rural ecological livability index in 2015 was 0.345, and its overall value in 2019 was 0.334, with an average value of 0.343. The REL of Fujian Province is spatially correlated, with high levels of livability in the southeast and low levels in the northeast. The autocorrelation in the level of ecological livability in Fujian's counties and cities continues to increase.

The ages and TSH values of patients being prescribed levothyroxine

Background: Levothyroxine is a commonly prescribed medication. Some data suggest that levothyroxine may be initiated for mild degrees of hypothyroidism and used without considering age-specific reference ranges or individual patient factors when prescribing. Methods: The electronic medical record of a health care system operating in the Washington, DC and Maryland area was interrogated to determine the number of patients who were being prescribed levothyroxine during the time period 2008–2016, the number of prescriptions supplied to these individuals, an associated diagnosis of hypothyroidism, and whether the prescriptions were new or existing prescriptions. Information was also extracted about the age of patients receiving prescriptions and the thyroid stimulating hormone level documented prior to levothyroxine initiation. Results: Although the number of levothyroxine prescriptions provided annually increased over this time period, when corrected for the number of patients in the database, the percentage of patients receiving levothyroxine prescriptions showed a slight downward trend. Levothyroxine was both most frequently prescribed and frequently initiated in those of ages 50–59 years and 60–69 years. The doses of levothyroxine most commonly prescribed were 50 µg and 100 µg and the pattern of levothyroxine doses being used was unaffected by whether a diagnosis of hypothyroidism was documented or not. Levothyroxine prescription initiation was associated with mean thyroid stimulating hormone values that were modestly elevated and in the range of 7.5–13.8 mIU/L. Conclusion: This analysis showed that although the percentage of patients being prescribed levothyroxine is stable or slightly declining, with most decrement in those without a diagnosis of hypothyroidism, there is nevertheless continued initiation of levothyroxine in those with mild degrees of thyroid stimulating hormone elevation, and in those of older age, raising concerns about both unnecessary treatment and iatrogenic thyrotoxicosis. Such data suggest the need for great consideration of both the degree of thyroid stimulating hormone elevation and the patient context when considering whether treatment of an elevated thyroid stimulating hormone value, versus ongoing monitoring, is indicated.

Analysis and forecast of the production parameters of major cereal crops in Serbia

This paper deals with the production parameters of major cereal crops in Serbia (namely the cultivation area, annual production and yields of the cereal crops considered) in the period 2005-2018. The objective of this study was to determine trends in and the volume and stability of the production parameters of the most important cereal crops in Serbia. Furthermore, a forecast of changes in the parameters observed was made for the five-year period 2019-2023. The following cereal crops were under consideration: corn, wheat, barley, oats, rye and triticale. The area devoted to corn in Serbia was found to be very stable, indicating a slight downward trend. However, the Serbian corn production lacked stability due to variations in yield, suggesting a very slight downward trend. Wheat was found to be far more stable with slightly growing trends in all the parameters considered. Moreover, positive trends in all the parameters considered were also noticed in the Serbian triticale production.

Secukinumab for Psoriasis in Obese Patients: Minireview and Clinical Experience

Psoriasis (PsO) has been associated with obesity, and its severity increases in obese subjects. The link between psoriatic condition and obesity is based on shared pathophysiological pathways where local and systemic inflammation promote each other; PsO is an inflammatory, immune-mediated disease, and the adipose tissue is the source of proinflammatory adipokines. Moreover, psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is an important comorbidity of PsO that reduces quality of life and makes difficult the patient’s management. Treatment of obese subjects with moderate to severe PsO, even more if PsA is present, is challenging because of reduced efficacy of several systemic drugs and increased risk of adverse events. Secukinumab, a monoclonal antibody that selectively binds to and neutralizes interleukin 17A, shows efficacy on PsO in all body weight groups, even in the highest, whose response has a slight downward trend. Clinical features of two obese subjects, affected by PsO and PsA, successfully treated with secukinumab, are described.

INCOME SITUATION OF AGRICULTURAL HOLDINGS COVERED BY THE AGRICULTURAL ACCOUNTING SYSTEM (FADN) IN EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES

The main purpose of this research is to assess the income situation of agricultural holdings and identify the re- lated trends in EU-23 countries. As shown by surveys, the incomes followed an average moderate upward trend over the 2004–2015 period. The income situation of agricultural holdings was concluded to vary strongly across EU-23 coun- tries. Even though the existing extensive system of support stabilizes the level of incomes (and despite an increase in the level of subsidies), it does not eliminate the significant vari- ation. Simultaneously, it was noted that per-hectare incomes (less subsidies) followed a slight downward trend in 2004– 2015, which indicates once again the important contribution of subsidies to the income situation of agricultural holdings in EU countries. Agricultural holdings in “new” member states (except for the Czech Republic) achieve much lower incomes than EU-15 farms.

Hardness of water analysis at the Grotowice intake situated near Opole

The determination of raw water hardness subsequently treated and used for domestic water supplies is a useful parameter to characterize the present total dissolved solids as well as for calculation dosages for lime-soda softening application. Because water hardness concentrations have not been proven to be health related, the final achieved level is mainly an economic function. To identify existing trends, the changes in water hardness in Grotowice intake for the years 1999-2017 have been analysed. The obtained results indicate clearly that the water hardness in three wells shows a slight downward trend, but on the other hand, one trend is rising in another direction.

Indicators and dynamics of injuries of the musculoskeletal system in children of st petersburg in the current conditions

Injuries remain a most important problem in Russia. This article describes child injuries, especially child injuries of the musculoskeletal system in modern conditions. Injuries of the musculoskeletal system in children account for 85-87 % of all injuries. Studied the frequency and pattern of injuries of the musculoskeletal system in children. The frequency of injuries of the musculoskeletal system in children ranged from 156,8 before 170,7 per 1,000 population 0-17 years. Among the injuries was dominated by street and household (total of 68-71 %), school injury was 11-11,7 %, sports - 6,7-7,6 %. Analyzed injuries among patients of different sex. Among all types of injuries boys dominated, accounting for 53.8 to 66.7 % of the affected children. A special attention is paid to road injuries. This article describes some indicators of hospitalized injuries in children. The average hospitalization needed 16 % of injured, the hospitalization rates were 26.3 per 1,000 children. Using the method of least squares, managed to get trends in the development of injuries and to calculate the level of injuries for the next 3 years. Installed a slight downward trend in the rate of injuries - 0.2 cases per 1000 children per year. The analysis of statistical data provides the basis for in-depth study of the causes and circumstances of injuries, that allows the development of recommendations for their prevention and organization of medical care. This work can be useful for prospective development of pediatric trauma care in a big city.