Using glaciers to identify, monitor, and predict volcanic activity

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Martin ◽  
Iestyn Barr ◽  
Benjamin Edwards ◽  
Elias Symeonakis ◽  
Matteo Spagnolo
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Predictive Tool ◽  
Societal Benefit ◽  
Ice Surface ◽  
Dome Growth ◽  
Volcanic Events ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Ice Fracturing ◽  
Remote Sensing Techniques

<p>Many (about 250) volcanoes worldwide are occupied by glaciers. This can be problematic for volcano monitoring because glacier ice potentially masks evidence of volcanic activity. Both the deadliest and most costly volcanic eruptions of the last 100 years involved volcano-glacier interactions. The 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz killed 23000 people, and the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull led to the closure of many European airports. Therefore, improving methods for monitoring glacier-clad volcanoes is of clear societal benefit. Amongst several methods, satellite based remote sensing techniques are perhaps most promising, since they frequently have a relatively high temporal and spatial resolution, and are mostly freely available. They can help to identify the effects of volcanic activity on glaciers, including ice fracturing, ice surface subsidence and glacier acceleration potentially due to subglacial melt or subglacial dome growth. This study aims to link pre-, syn- and post-eruption glacier behavior to the type and timing of volcanic activity, and to develop a satellite based predictive tool for monitoring future eruptions. Despite several studies that link volcanic activity and changing glacier behavior, the potential of using the latter to predict the former has yet to be systematically tested. Our approach is to use satellite imagery to observe how glaciers responded to past volcanic events, and to build a training database of examples for automated detection and forecasting.</p>

Using glaciers to identify, monitor, and predict volcanic activity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Martin ◽  
Iestyn Barr ◽  
Benjamin Edwards ◽  
Elias Symeonakis ◽  
Matteo Spagnolo
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Predictive Tool ◽  
Glacier Terminus ◽  
Dome Growth ◽  
Volcanic Events ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Ice Fracturing ◽  
Remote Sensing Techniques

<p>Many (about 250) volcanoes worldwide are occupied by glaciers. Often glaciers are regarded as problematic for volcano monitoring, since glacier ice potentially masks evidence of volcanic activity. The most devastating volcanic eruptions of the last 100 years involved volcano-glacier interactions. The 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz killed 23000 people, and the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull led to the closure of many European airports. Therefore, it is imperative to minimize these impacts on society by improving methods for monitoring of glacier-clad volcanoes. Amongst several methods, optical satellite remote sensing techniques are perhaps most auspicious, since they frequently have a relatively high temporal and spatial resolution, and are mostly freely available. They often clearly show the effects of volcanic activity on glaciers, including ice cauldron formation, ice fracturing and glacier terminus changes potentially due to subglacial melt or subglacial dome growth. This study has the objective to link pre-, syn- and post-eruption glacier behaviour to the type and timing of volcanic activity, and to develop a satellite based predictive tool for monitoring future eruptions. Despite several studies that link volcanic activity and changing glacier behaviour, the potential of using the latter to predict the former has yet to be systematically tested. Our approach is to observe how glaciers responded to past volcanic events using mostly, but not exclusively optical satellite imagery, and to build a database of examples for potential automated detection and forecasting on a global scale.</p>

scholarly journals Near-real-time volcanic cloud monitoring: insights into global explosive volcanic eruptive activity through analysis of Volcanic Ash Advisories

2021 ◽  
Vol 83 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Engwell ◽  
L. Mastin ◽  
A. Tupper ◽  
J. Kibler ◽  
P. Acethorp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Volcanic Hazards ◽  
Process Data ◽  
Cloud Monitoring ◽  
Satellite Sensors ◽  
Volcanic Cloud

AbstractUnderstanding the location, intensity, and likely duration of volcanic hazards is key to reducing risk from volcanic eruptions. Here, we use a novel near-real-time dataset comprising Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAAs) issued over 10 years to investigate global rates and durations of explosive volcanic activity. The VAAs were collected from the nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) worldwide. Information extracted allowed analysis of the frequency and type of explosive behaviour, including analysis of key eruption source parameters (ESPs) such as volcanic cloud height and duration. The results reflect changes in the VAA reporting process, data sources, and volcanic activity through time. The data show an increase in the number of VAAs issued since 2015 that cannot be directly correlated to an increase in volcanic activity. Instead, many represent increased observations, including improved capability to detect low- to mid-level volcanic clouds (FL101–FL200, 3–6 km asl), by higher temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution satellite sensors. Comparison of ESP data extracted from the VAAs with the Mastin et al. (J Volcanol Geotherm Res 186:10–21, 2009a) database shows that traditional assumptions used in the classification of volcanoes could be much simplified for operational use. The analysis highlights the VAA data as an exceptional resource documenting global volcanic activity on timescales that complement more widely used eruption datasets.

scholarly journals A Whole-Field Interferometric Scheme for Measuring strain and Flow Rates of Glacier and Other Natural Surfaces

1983 ◽  
Vol 29 (103) ◽  
pp. 492-497
Author(s):  
Gary Cloud ◽  
Edgar Conley
Keyword(s):  
Displacement Vector ◽  
Surface Displacement ◽  
Time Lapse ◽  
Speckle Interferometry ◽  
Narrow Beam ◽  
Coherent Light ◽  
Ice Surface ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Fringe Patterns ◽  
Small Overlap

AbstractThe flow of glacier ice is mapped using high-resolution photography and non-coherent-light speckle interferometry. Young’s fringe patterns result when a double-exposed photoplate image of the straining surface is illuminated by a narrow beam of coherent light. Geometry gives a relationship between the ice surface displacement vector and the interference fringe patterns. This displacement vector is corrected for rigid-body (camera) movement and projected onto the ice surface using topological maps. The strain during the time-lapse interval is thus known. Comparison with data acquired by surveying techniques at Nisqually Glacier, Washington, U.S.A., is limited because of small overlap of the surface studied. In the areas for which results can be compared, our experiments yield a flow of 0.6 m/d where conventional methods yield about 0.4 m/d.

scholarly journals Volcanic activity sparks the Arctic Oscillation

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Weizheng Qu ◽  
Fei Huang ◽  
Jinping Zhao ◽  
Ling Du ◽  
Yong Cao
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Volcanic Eruption ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Vortex System ◽  
Significant Fluctuation ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation

AbstractThe parasol effect of volcanic dust and aerosol caused by volcanic eruption results in the deepening and strengthening of the Arctic vortex system, thus stimulating or strengthening the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Three of the strongest AOs in more than a century have been linked to volcanic eruptions. Every significant fluctuation of the AO index (AOI = ΔH_middle latitudes − ΔH_Arctic) for many years has been associated with a volcanic eruption. Volcanic activity occurring at different locations in the Arctic vortex circulation will exert different effects on the polar vortex.

scholarly journals Research on the Tunnel Excavated In Urumqi Glacier No. 1, Tianshan Glaciological Station, China

1987 ◽  
Vol 33 (113) ◽  
pp. 99-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huang Maohuan ◽  
Wang Zhongxiang
Keyword(s):  
Melting Point ◽  
Shear Strain ◽  
Maximum Shear Strain ◽  
Ice Surface ◽  
Basal Sliding ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Glacier Motion

AbstractA tunnel was excavated in Urumqi Glacier No. 1, at the Tianshan Glaciological Station. Ice temperature, ice displacement, deformation, and basal sliding, etc. were observed at regular intervals. It is shown that the temperature near the glacier bed is close to the melting point and that the largest proportion of the overall glacier motion is within the lowermost ice layers. The glacier ice is in a state of compression. The maximum shear strain increases towards the entrance of the tunnel, corresponding to the change in slope of the ice surface, and also towards the bedrock.

scholarly journals Present dynamics and future prognosis of a slowly surging glacier

2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 299-313 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. E. Flowers ◽  
N. Roux ◽  
S. Pimentel ◽  
C. G. Schoof
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Force Balance ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
Internal Dynamic ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ice Surface ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Glacier Flow ◽  
Negative Balance

Abstract. Glacier surges are a well-known example of an internal dynamic oscillation whose occurrence is not a direct response to the external climate forcing, but whose character (i.e. period, amplitude, mechanism) may depend on the glacier's environmental or climate setting. We examine the dynamics of a small (∼5 km2) valley glacier in Yukon, Canada, where two previous surges have been photographically documented and an unusually slow surge is currently underway. To characterize the dynamics of the present surge, and to speculate on the future of this glacier, we employ a higher-order flowband model of ice dynamics with a regularized Coulomb-friction sliding law in both diagnostic and prognostic simulations. Diagnostic (force balance) calculations capture the measured ice-surface velocity profile only when non-zero basal water pressures are prescribed over the central region of the glacier, coincident with where evidence of the surge has been identified. This leads to sliding accounting for 50–100% of the total surface motion in this region. Prognostic simulations, where the glacier geometry evolves in response to a prescribed surface mass balance, reveal a significant role played by a bedrock ridge beneath the current equilibrium line of the glacier. Ice thickening occurs above the ridge in our simulations, until the net mass balance reaches sufficiently negative values. We suggest that the bedrock ridge may contribute to the propensity for surges in this glacier by promoting the development of the reservoir area during quiescence, and may permit surges to occur under more negative balance conditions than would otherwise be possible. Collectively, these results corroborate our interpretation of the current glacier flow regime as indicative of a slow surge that has been ongoing for some time, and support a relationship between surge incidence or character and the net mass balance. Our results also highlight the importance of glacier bed topography in controlling ice dynamics, as observed in many other glacier systems.

SedCas_Volcano: Simulating decadal patterns of lahar hazard and sediment transfer following volcanic disturbance in the Belham River Valley, Montserrat 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Christie ◽  
Georgina Bennett ◽  
Jacob Hirschberg ◽  
Jenni Barclay ◽  
Richard Herd
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Vegetation Cover ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
River Valley ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Recovery Cycle ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Volcanic Disturbance ◽  
Multi Phase ◽  
Disturbance Recovery

<p>Explosive volcanic eruptions are among the most significant natural disturbances to landscapes on Earth. The widespread and rapid influx of pyroclastic sediment, together with subsequent changes to topography and vegetation cover, drives markedly heightened runoff responses to rainfall and increased downstream water and sediment fluxes; principally by way of hazardous lahars. The nature and probability of lahar occurrence under given rainfall conditions evolves as the landscape responds and subsequently recovers following the disturbance. The relationship between varying sediment supply, rainfall patterns, vegetation cover and lahar activity is complex, and impedes forecasting efforts made in the interest of hazard and land use management. Thus, developing an improved understanding of how these systems evolve in response to volcanic eruptions is of high importance.</p><p>Here we present SedCas_Volcano[MOU1] , a conceptual sediment cascade model, designed to simulate the first-order trends, such as magnitude-frequency distributions or seasonal patterns, in lahar activity and sediment transport. We use the Belham River Valley, Montserrat, as a case study. This small (~15km<sup>2</sup>) catchment has been repeatedly disturbed by five phases of volcanic activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano since 1995. The multi-phase nature of this eruption, together with the varying nature and magnitude of disturbances throughout the eruption, has driven a complex disturbance-recovery cycle, which is further compounded by inter-annual climatic variations (e.g. ENSO). Lahars have occurred frequently in response to rainfall in the Belham River Valley, and their occurrence has evolved through the repeated disturbance-recovery cycle. This activity has resulted in significant net valley floor aggradation and widening, consequent burial and destruction of buildings and infrastructure, as well as coastal aggradation of up to ~250m. Within SedCas_Volcano, we account for evolving sediment supply, vegetation cover and rainfall, to simulate the lahar activity and channel change observed in the Belham River Valley since January 2001. Following this, we test the model under different hypothetical eruptive scenarios. [MOU2] Our goal is to assess the efficacy of such models for reproducing patterns of lahar activity and geomorphic change in river systems that are repeatedly disturbed by volcanic activity.</p>

Tephra in the Greenland Ice cores: Insights into Icelandic volcano-climate impacts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imogen Gabriel ◽  
Gill Plunkett ◽  
Peter Abbott ◽  
Bergrún Óladóttir ◽  
Joseph McConnell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Geochemical Analysis ◽  
Volcanic Events ◽  
Societal Impacts ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ice Core Records

<p>Volcanic eruptions are considered as one of the primary natural drivers for changes in the global climate system and understanding the impact of past eruptions on the climate is integral to adopt appropriate responses towards future volcanic eruptions.</p><p>The Greenland ice core records are dominated by Icelandic eruptions, with several volcanic systems (Katla, Hekla, Bárðarbunga-Veiðivötn and Grimsvötn) being highly active throughout the Holocene. A notable period of increased Icelandic volcanic activity occurred between 500-1250 AD and coincided with climatic changes in the North Atlantic region which may have facilitated the Viking settlement of Greenland and Iceland. However, a number of these volcanic events are poorly constrained (duration and magnitude). Consequently, the Greenland ice cores offer the opportunity to reliably reconstruct past Icelandic volcanism (duration, magnitude and frequency) due to their high-resolution, the proximity of Iceland to Greenland and subsequent increased likelihood of volcanic fallout deposits (tephra particles and sulphur aerosols) being preserved. However, both the high frequency of eruptions between 500-1250 AD and the geochemical similarity of Iceland’s volcanic centres present challenges in making the required robust geochemical correlations between the source volcano and the ice core records and ultimately reliably assessing the climatic-societal impacts of these eruptions.</p><p>To address this, we use two Greenland ice core records (TUNU2013 and B19) and undertake geochemical analysis on tephra from the volcanic events in the selected time window which have been detected and sampled using novel techniques (insoluble particle peaks and sulphur acidity peaks). Further geochemical analysis of proximal material enables robust correlations to be made between the events in the ice core records and their volcanic centres. The high-resolution of these polar archives provides a precise age for the event and when utilised alongside other proxies (i.e. sulphur aerosols), both the duration and magnitude of these eruptions can be constrained, and the climatic-societal impacts of these eruptions reliably assessed.</p>

Tsunami and tephra deposits record interactions between past eruptive activity and landslides at Stromboli volcano, Italy

Geology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
pp. 436-440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Pistolesi ◽  
Antonella Bertagnini ◽  
Alessio Di Roberto ◽  
Maurizio Ripepe ◽  
Mauro Rosi
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Stromboli Volcano ◽  
Close Link ◽  
Flank Collapse ◽  
Volcanic Events ◽  
Volcanic Islands ◽  
Volcaniclastic Deposits

Abstract Devastation associated with tsunamis is well known on the global scale. Flank collapse at volcanic islands is among the mechanisms triggering tsunamis, but very few examples document interaction between landslides and volcanic activity. The study of three well-preserved medieval tsunami deposits recently discovered along the coast of Stromboli volcano (Aeolian Islands, southern Italy) enabled a detailed characterization of the tsunami sequences intercalated with volcaniclastic deposits and primary tephra and allowed reconstruction of the likely sequence of volcanic events. In one case, a violent explosion possibly preceded the tsunami, whereas in the youngest event, the lateral collapse of the volcano flank triggered a tsunami wave that was rapidly followed by sustained explosive magmatic activity and ensuing prolonged ash venting. The hypothesized tsunami-triggering dynamics suggests a close link between volcanic activity and flank collapse, further confirming that the persistent activity at Stromboli makes the volcano particularly susceptible to tsunami generation.

scholarly journals Simulation of Historic Glacier Variations with a Simple Climate-Glacier Model

1988 ◽  
Vol 34 (118) ◽  
pp. 333-341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Oerlemans
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Solar Variability ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Radiation Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Modelling Studies

AbstractGlacier variations during the last few centuries have shown a marked coherence over the globe. Characteristic features are the maximum stand somewhere in the middle of the nineteenth century, and the steady retreat afterwards (with some minor interruptions depending on the particular region). In many papers, qualitative statements have been made about the causes of these fluctuations. Lower temperatures associated with solar variability and/or volcanic activity are the most popular explanations. In particular, the statistical relation between glacier activity and major volcanic eruptions appears to be strong.In this paper, an attempt is made to simulate recent glacier fluctations with a physics-based model. A simple climate model, calculating perturbations of surface-radiation balance and air temperature (not necessarily in phase!), is coupled to a schematic time-dependent glacier model. The climate model is forced by volcanic activity (Greenland acidity and/or Lamb’s dust-veil index) and greenhouse warming. Solar variability was not considered, because its effect on climate has still not been demonstrated in a convincing way. The output is translated into variations in equilibrium-line altitude, driving the glacier model.The simulated variations in glacier length show good agreement with the observed record, but the amplitude is too small. This is improved when mass-balance gradients are assumed to be larger in warmer climates. Compared to recently published modelling studies of particular glaciers, in which series of local parameters (e.g. tree-ring width and temperature) were used as forcing, the present simulation is better. This suggests that the radiation balance is a decisive factor with regard to glacier variations on longer time-scales. The model experiments lend support to the results of Porter (1986), who concluded from a more qualitative study that a strong relation exists between periods of increased volcanic activity and glacier advances.A comparison of some selected runs shows that, according to the present model, the greenhouse warming would be responsible for about 50% of the glacier retreat observed over the last 100 years.

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