The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Didac Pascual Descarrega ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Research Priorities ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ecosystem Change ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Subarctic Ecosystems

<p>Arctic and subarctic ecosystems are undergoing substantial changes in response to climatic and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this Century. Due to the strong linkages between the biotic (vegetation and carbon cycle) and abiotic (permafrost, hydrology and local climate) ecosystem components, the total magnitude of these changes result from multiple interacting effects that can enhance or counter the direct effects. In some cases, short-lived extreme events can override climate-driven long-term trends. The field measurements can mostly tackle individual drivers rather than the interactions between them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of different changes and the magnitude of their impact on subarctic ecosystems is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years and encompasses the 12% of all published papers and the 19% of all study citations across the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the direct and indirect drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose future research priorities identified to improve future predictions of ecosystem change. First, we identified the direct and indirect changing drivers and the multiple related processes and feedbacks impacting the local climate, permafrost, hydrology, vegetation, and the carbon cycle based on the existing literature. Subsequently, an Expert Elicitation with the participation of 27 leading scientists was used to rank the short- (2020-2040) and long-term (2040-2100) future impact of these drivers according to their opinions on the relative importance and novelty. These two key evaluation matrices form the basis for identifying the current research priorities for subarctic regions. The relatively small size of the Torneträsk area, its great biological and geomorphological complexity, and its unique datasets is a microcosm of the subarctic and the rapidly transforming Arctic ecosystems that can help understand the ongoing processes and future ecosystem changes at a larger circumpolar-scale. This in turn will provide the basis for future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.</p>

scholarly journals The missing pieces for better future predictions in subarctic ecosystems: A Torneträsk case study

AMBIO ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 375-392
Author(s):  
Didac Pascual ◽  
Jonas Åkerman ◽  
Marina Becher ◽  
Terry V. Callaghan ◽  
Torben R. Christensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Research Priorities ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ecosystem Change ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Total Magnitude ◽  
Subarctic Ecosystems ◽  
Ecosystem Changes

AbstractArctic and subarctic ecosystems are experiencing substantial changes in hydrology, vegetation, permafrost conditions, and carbon cycling, in response to climatic change and other anthropogenic drivers, and these changes are likely to continue over this century. The total magnitude of these changes results from multiple interactions among these drivers. Field measurements can address the overall responses to different changing drivers, but are less capable of quantifying the interactions among them. Currently, a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of ecosystem changes, and the magnitude of their direct and indirect impacts on subarctic ecosystems, is missing. The Torneträsk area, in the Swedish subarctic, has an unrivalled history of environmental observation over 100 years, and is one of the most studied sites in the Arctic. In this study, we summarize and rank the drivers of ecosystem change in the Torneträsk area, and propose research priorities identified, by expert assessment, to improve predictions of ecosystem changes. The research priorities identified include understanding impacts on ecosystems brought on by altered frequency and intensity of winter warming events, evapotranspiration rates, rainfall, duration of snow cover and lake-ice, changed soil moisture, and droughts. This case study can help us understand the ongoing ecosystem changes occurring in the Torneträsk area, and contribute to improve predictions of future ecosystem changes at a larger scale. This understanding will provide the basis for the future mitigation and adaptation plans needed in a changing climate.

Families of Individuals With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities: Policy, Funding, Services, and Experiences

2013 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 349-359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Hewitt ◽  
John Agosta ◽  
Tamar Heller ◽  
Ann Cameron Williams ◽  
Jennifer Reinke
Keyword(s):  
Developmental Disabilities ◽  
Research Priorities ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Intellectual And Developmental Disabilities ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Home Support ◽  
The Status ◽  
Services And Supports ◽  
At Home

Abstract Families are critical in the provision of lifelong support to individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD). Today, more people with IDD receive long-term services and supports while living with their families. Thus, it is important that researchers, practitioners, and policy makers understand how to best support families who provide at-home support to children and adults with IDD. This article summarizes (a) the status of research regarding the support of families who provide support at home to individuals with IDD, (b) present points of concern regarding supports for these families, and (c) associated future research priorities related to supporting families.

scholarly journals Current systematic carbon-cycle observations and the need for implementing a policy-relevant carbon observing system

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 3547-3602 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Ciais ◽  
A. J. Dolman ◽  
A. Bombelli ◽  
R. Duren ◽  
A. Peregon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Observation System ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Current State ◽  
Spatial Coverage

Abstract. A globally integrated carbon observation and analysis system is needed to improve the fundamental understanding of the global carbon cycle, to improve our ability to project future changes, and to verify the effectiveness of policies aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration. Building an integrated carbon observation system requires transformational advances from the existing sparse, exploratory framework towards a dense, robust, and sustained system in all components: anthropogenic emissions, the atmosphere, the ocean, and the terrestrial biosphere. The paper is addressed to scientists, policymakers, and funding agencies who need to have a global picture of the current state of the (diverse) carbon observations. We identify the current state of carbon observations, and the needs and notional requirements for a global integrated carbon observation system that can be built in the next decade. A key conclusion is the substantial expansion of the ground-based observation networks required to reach the high spatial resolution for CO2 and CH4 fluxes, and for carbon stocks for addressing policy-relevant objectives, and attributing flux changes to underlying processes in each region. In order to establish flux and stock diagnostics over areas such as the southern oceans, tropical forests, and the Arctic, in situ observations will have to be complemented with remote-sensing measurements. Remote sensing offers the advantage of dense spatial coverage and frequent revisit. A key challenge is to bring remote-sensing measurements to a level of long-term consistency and accuracy so that they can be efficiently combined in models to reduce uncertainties, in synergy with ground-based data. Bringing tight observational constraints on fossil fuel and land use change emissions will be the biggest challenge for deployment of a policy-relevant integrated carbon observation system. This will require in situ and remotely sensed data at much higher resolution and density than currently achieved for natural fluxes, although over a small land area (cities, industrial sites, power plants), as well as the inclusion of fossil fuel CO2 proxy measurements such as radiocarbon in CO2 and carbon-fuel combustion tracers. Additionally, a policy-relevant carbon monitoring system should also provide mechanisms for reconciling regional top-down (atmosphere-based) and bottom-up (surface-based) flux estimates across the range of spatial and temporal scales relevant to mitigation policies. In addition, uncertainties for each observation data-stream should be assessed. The success of the system will rely on long-term commitments to monitoring, on improved international collaboration to fill gaps in the current observations, on sustained efforts to improve access to the different data streams and make databases interoperable, and on the calibration of each component of the system to agreed-upon international scales.

scholarly journals Is Svalbard a pristine ecosystem? Reconstructing 420 years of human presence in an Arctic archipelago

Polar Record ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 52 (5) ◽  
pp. 518-534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frigga Kruse
Keyword(s):  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Environmental Conservation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ecosystem Change ◽  
Archaeological Sites ◽  
Anthropogenic Pressure ◽  
Distribution Map ◽  
Human Presence ◽  
Future Work

ABSTRACTThe Arctic is commonly perceived as a pristine wilderness, yet more than four centuries of human industry have not left Svalbard untouched. This paper explores the historical dimension of human-induced ecosystem change using human presence as a proxy. Its aims are fourfold: to reconstruct and quantify historical human presence, to ascertain if human presence is a suitable indicator of long-term anthropogenic pressure, to deduce trends in anthropogenic pressure on five selected species of game animal, and to postulate trends in their subpopulation sizes. Published sources give rise to 57 datasets dealing with the annual voyages to Svalbard as well as the participants in them. All known archaeological sites are visualised in a distribution map. Despite the large amount of data, the quantification of historical human presence remains biased and partial. Only with the aid of a timeline of known milestones is it possible to make hypotheses about changes in anthropogenic pressure and animal subpopulations over time. The exercise is nonetheless a necessary and instructive one: it confirms that the erroneous view of Svalbard as a pristine ecosystem hinders timely historical-ecological research. Future work must aim at the systematic quantification of past human impact in a holistic approach to environmental conservation and restoration.

scholarly journals Reflections on almost a century of hydrological studies on Africa's largest lake

2021 ◽  
Vol 384 ◽  
pp. 141-147
Author(s):  
Kevin Sene ◽  
Helen Houghton Carr ◽  
Wlodek Tych
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Lake Victoria ◽  
Research Priorities ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Monitoring Networks ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Seasonal Flow ◽  
Research Programmes ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
White Nile

Abstract. Lake Victoria is the largest lake in Africa and its outflows strongly influence flows in the White Nile, including the availability of water for hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply. Understanding the water balance is a major challenge since the lake is large enough to influence the local climate and its catchment spans several countries. Hydrometeorological monitoring networks are also sparse in some parts of the basin. In this paper, we consider the history of water balance estimates for the lake and how the science has developed as new information and techniques have become available, including in areas such as seasonal flow forecasting and estimating the potential impacts of dam operations and climate change. These findings are placed into a wider context including the challenges arising from a changing climate and evolving ideas from international research programmes, which lead to some suggestions for future research priorities for Lake Victoria and other sub-Saharan/Rift Valley lakes.

scholarly journals Research Priorities for Optimizing Long-term Community Integration after Brain Injury

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 643-651
Author(s):  
Emily J. Nalder ◽  
Karl Zabjek ◽  
Deirdre R. Dawson ◽  
Carolina L. Bottari ◽  
Isabelle Gagnon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Brain Injury ◽  
Qualitative Content Analysis ◽  
Community Integration ◽  
Research Priorities ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Directions ◽  
Broad Perspective ◽  
World Cafe ◽  
The World

AbstractObjectiveThis paper reports on a funded summit, which convened a multidisciplinary group of experts to provide consensus on the research priorities necessary for improving long-term community integration of individuals with traumatic brain injury (TBI) and their caregivers.MethodsThe 2-day summit was directed using the World Café Methodology, to engage stakeholders and collaboratively arrive at a consensus on the problems to be targeted in research. Participants (n=54), drawn from two Canadian provinces, included an interdisciplinary group of researchers, clinicians, representatives from brain injury associations, individuals with TBI, and caregivers. In small groups, participants discussed challenges to long-term community integration and potential initiatives that would address these barriers. Field notes from the discussions were analyzed using qualitative content analysis.ResultsThe consensus on prioritized research directions included developing interventions to optimize the functioning and participation of individuals with TBI, reducing caregiver burden, and evaluating how emerging technology can facilitate delivery of care.ConclusionsThe World Café Methodology was an effective method for developing research priorities. The breadth of expertise of participants and the collegial environment allowed for the identification of a broad perspective on important future research directions with potential to enhance the long-term community integration of individuals with brain injury.

scholarly journals IPY 2007–2008 data legacy – a long story cut short

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 447-460
Author(s):  
A. Driemel ◽  
H. Grobe ◽  
M. Diepenbroek ◽  
H. Grüttemeier ◽  
S. Schumacher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Science ◽  
Technical Information ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
International Polar Year ◽  
Long Term Storage ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Data Products

Abstract. The International Polar Year 2007–2008 was a synchronized effort to simultaneously collect data from polar regions. Being the fourth in a row of IPYs, the demand for interdisciplinarity and new data products was high. However, despite of all the research done on land, people, ocean, ice and atmosphere and the large amount of data collected, no central archive or portal was created for IPY data. In order to address these issues, a concerted effort between PANGAEA – Data Publisher for Earth and Environmental Science, the ICSU World Data System (WDS), and the International Council for Scientific and Technical Information (ICSTI) was undertaken to extract data resulting from IPY publications for long-term preservation. 1380 IPY-related references were collected. Out of these, only 450 contained accessible data. All data was extracted, quality checked, annotated with metadata and uploaded to PANGAEA. The 450 articles dealt with a multitude of IPY topics – plankton biomass, water chemistry, ice thickness, whale sightings, Inuit health, alien species introductions by travelers or tundra biomass change – to mention just a few. Both, the Arctic and the Antarctic were investigated in the articles, and all realms (land, people, ocean, ice and atmosphere) and a wide range of countries were covered. The data compilation can now be found with the identifier doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.150150 and individually searched for using the PANGAEA search engine (www.pangaea.de) and adding "+project:ipy". With this effort, we hope to improve the visibility, accessibility and long-term storage of IPY data for future research and new data products.

scholarly journals Extrapolating Survival from Randomized Trials Using External Data: A Review of Methods

2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 377-390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Jackson ◽  
John Stevens ◽  
Shijie Ren ◽  
Nick Latimer ◽  
Laura Bojke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Survival Data ◽  
Randomized Trials ◽  
Research Priorities ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
External Data ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Term Data

This article describes methods used to estimate parameters governing long-term survival, or times to other events, for health economic models. Specifically, the focus is on methods that combine shorter-term individual-level survival data from randomized trials with longer-term external data, thus using the longer-term data to aid extrapolation of the short-term data. This requires assumptions about how trends in survival for each treatment arm will continue after the follow-up period of the trial. Furthermore, using external data requires assumptions about how survival differs between the populations represented by the trial and external data. Study reports from a national health technology assessment program in the United Kingdom were searched, and the findings were combined with “pearl-growing” searches of the academic literature. We categorized the methods that have been used according to the assumptions they made about how the hazards of death vary between the external and internal data and through time, and we discuss the appropriateness of the assumptions in different circumstances. Modeling choices, parameter estimation, and characterization of uncertainty are discussed, and some suggestions for future research priorities in this area are given.

scholarly journals Processes controlling surface, bottom and lateral melt of Arctic sea ice in a state of the art sea ice model

2015 ◽  
Vol 373 (2052) ◽  
pp. 20140167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Tsamados ◽  
Daniel Feltham ◽  
Alek Petty ◽  
David Schroeder ◽  
Daniela Flocco
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Research Priorities ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Melt Ponds ◽  
Equation Boundary ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Model

We present a modelling study of processes controlling the summer melt of the Arctic sea ice cover. We perform a sensitivity study and focus our interest on the thermodynamics at the ice–atmosphere and ice–ocean interfaces. We use the Los Alamos community sea ice model CICE, and additionally implement and test three new parametrization schemes: (i) a prognostic mixed layer; (ii) a three equation boundary condition for the salt and heat flux at the ice–ocean interface; and (iii) a new lateral melt parametrization. Recent additions to the CICE model are also tested, including explicit melt ponds, a form drag parametrization and a halodynamic brine drainage scheme. The various sea ice parametrizations tested in this sensitivity study introduce a wide spread in the simulated sea ice characteristics. For each simulation, the total melt is decomposed into its surface, bottom and lateral melt components to assess the processes driving melt and how this varies regionally and temporally. Because this study quantifies the relative importance of several processes in driving the summer melt of sea ice, this work can serve as a guide for future research priorities.

scholarly journals What matters to people with multiple long-term conditions and their carers?

2021 ◽  
pp. postgradmedj-2021-140825
Author(s):  
Gemma Spiers ◽  
Elisabeth Boulton ◽  
Lynne Corner ◽  
Dawn Craig ◽  
Stuart Parker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older People ◽  
Public Involvement ◽  
Research Priorities ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Long Term Conditions ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Published Research ◽  
What Matters

BackgroundThe number of people living with multiple long-term conditions is increasing worldwide. This presents challenges for health and care systems, which must adapt to meet the needs of this population. This study drew on existing data to understand what matters to people living with multiple long-term conditions and identify priorities for future research.MethodsTwo studies were conducted. (1) A secondary thematic analysis of interview, survey and workshop data collected from the 2017 James Lind Alliance Priority Setting Partnership for Older People with Multiple Conditions, and patient and public involvement workshops; (2) a review of ongoing research and published research priorities, relating to older people (80+) living with multiple long-term conditions.FindingsOlder people with multiple long-term conditions identified a number of key concerns: access to care, support for both the patient and their carer, physical and mental health and well-being and identifying opportunities for early prevention. The review identified no published research priorities or ongoing research focusing specifically on populations aged over 80 years with multiple long-term conditions.ConclusionOlder people living with multiple long-term conditions experience care that is inadequate for their needs. A holistic approach to care that extends beyond treating single conditions will ensure wide-ranging needs are met. As multimorbidity rises worldwide, this is a critical message for practitioners across health and care settings. We also recommend key areas that should be given greater focus in future research and policy to inform effective and meaningful forms of support for people living with multiple long-term conditions.

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