How strong will be the following earthquake?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefania Gentili ◽  
Rita Di Giovambattista
Keyword(s):  
Large Earthquake ◽  
Ne Italy ◽  
Time Space ◽  
Strong Aftershock ◽  
Completeness Magnitude ◽  
Northeastern Italy ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Effective Decision Making ◽  
Independent Decision ◽  
Small Clusters

<p>In this study, we have applied to northeastern Italy and western Slovenia medium-low seismicity an algorithm for strong aftershock forecasting we originally developed for medium-high seismicity in Italy (Gentili and Di Giovambattista, 2017). The method, called NESTORE (Next STrOng Related Earthquake), analyzes the seismicity after medium and strong earthquakes, in order to forecast if a subsequent large earthquake (SLE) will follow. A SLE following a main shock can cause significant damages to already weakened buildings and infrastructures, therefore a timely advisory information to the civil protection is of great interest for effective decision-making. We performed the analysis on different time-spans after the mainshock, in order to simulate the increase of information available as time passes during the seismic clusters. NESTORE subdivides the clusters of seismicity into two classes: “A” if the difference in magnitude between the mainshock and the strongest aftershock is lower than 1, and B otherwise. Several statistical features based on time-space and energy evolution of seismicity are analyzed separately and, if they are sufficiently informative for SLE forecasting, they are used for independent decision trees training. The results are merged together by a Bayesian approach, obtaining a time-dependent probability Prob(A) to have an A cluster, i.e. to have at least one SLE. This study is possible thanks to the OGS bulletins, an accurate local catalogue, characterized by low completeness magnitude, compiled by the National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics. We tested the method on 1976 highly destructive Friuli cluster (mainshock magnitude 6.5 — the strongest in the last 80 years in the region) and on two small clusters of seismicity in NE Italy in 2019, obtaining encouraging results: 6 hours after the mainshock, for two A clusters NESTORE supplies Prob(A)=98% while for the B one Prob(A)=2%.</p>

 Water management in the Mucille area (NE Italy) through hydrologic balance estimation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Zini ◽  
Philippe Turpaud ◽  
Chiara Calligaris
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Karst Aquifer ◽  
The Other ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Ne Italy ◽  
Northeastern Italy ◽  
Hydrologic Balance ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Negative Balance ◽  
Flooded Areas

<p>After abundant rainfalls, the Mucille area (Ronchi dei Legionari, Northeastern Italy) is subject to frequent flooding. Although this area has always been exposed to such hazard, these inundations become problematic since 2001 as they more frequently affect housing and recreational areas, leading the population to believe that the swallow holes draining the area stopped functioning. The increased frequency of intense rainfall events led the municipal technicians to involve the Department of Mathematics and Geosciences of the University of Trieste to assess the situation. The Mucille karstic depression is fed by a spring area and drained by two swallow holes one of which is permanently active while the other operates only during floods. The Mucille springs represent the westernmost drain of the Classical Karst aquifer. During floods, as in-situ discharge measurements are impossible, only a hydrologic balance model may assess the inflow or outflow discharges. The extension of the flooded areas has been mapped. The obtained flooded surface together with high resolution DEM coverage allows to calculate the volume of surface water. Combined with water table levels recorded in an adjacent piezometer, this volume can be computed over time. Thus, the hydrologic balance (inflow minus outflow) can be estimated. This model has been applied to several flood events among which, two were the most important in terms of flooded areas: one in December 2017 and the other in November 2019. During the event of December 2017, the water level reached 7,5 m a.s.l. and the difference between the inflow and the outflow was 880 l/s. The day following the peak, the discharge difference decreased to 273 l/sand the 5 subsequent days the water balance was close to equilibrium. From the eighth day on, the outflow became predominant resulting in a negative budget between -233 and -78 l/s. The flood event of November 2019 reached the maximum inundated area at a water level of 7,8 m a.s.l. with a difference between the inflow and the outflow of 750 l/s . Two days after the peak a negative balance of -200 l/s was recorded and remained negative for the next 5 days. A period of intermittent precipitations increased again the inflow up to 600 l/s. Following a period of ten days with a negative balance the water level returned to the initial values of 5 m a.s.l. This study provides evidences fundamental for the design of measures to mitigate the risk. It estimates the discharge of the swallow holes, confirming their efficiency. Nonetheless it also emphasises the need to improve their draining capacity, especially considering the unsuspected high outflow of the springs at the onset of the flood.</p>

scholarly journals LOGIC OF RELATIVITY

2021 ◽  
pp. 42-52
Author(s):  
Ihor Ohirko ◽  
Zinovii Partyko
Keyword(s):  
Modal Logic ◽  
Symbolic Logic ◽  
Logical Theory ◽  
Relative Truth ◽  
Time Space ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Logical Method ◽  
Standard Values ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Modal Values

The problem of the truth of statements is considered. This study had the goal to develop a logical theory that would allow considering the context (the paradigm) from which would depend on the truth of the statement. For the development of such a theory, called the logic of relativity, the following methods of research are used as abstraction, analysis (traditional), synthesis, deduction, formalisation, axiomatisation, logical method. In order to develop the logic of relativity, it is expedient to use the achievements in the area of situational logic. Under the situation, it is proposed to understand two circumstances (time and space) and a condition that creates a context (paradigm) statement. Specifies the modal values that these three parameters can acquire and examines different types of situations. In order to write statements in the logic of relativity, a form of the statement of statements is proposed in the language of extended symbolic logic. For the theory of the logic of relativity, a set of four axioms is proposed and a series of laws. In particular, it is indicated that the values of the assertions in the logic of relativity are the following five estimates: truth, relative truth, relative is absurd, unclear, uncertain. Some theorems of the logic of relativity are proposed. A number of examples of texts in the natural language are given to interpret the statements of the logic of relativity. It is indicated that the proposed apparatus of the logic of relativity should be regarded as a kind of modal logic. The difference in the logic of relativity from situational logic is that it considers the factor of movement (motion) of statements in time, space and environment conditions, which was not considered by situational logic. The logic of relativity should be used wherever it is necessary to take into account the possibility of moving allegations regarding time, space and environment of conditions. One of the most important conclusions of the study is that in the logic to the standard values of truth (true, probably true, false, uncertain), it is expedient to add another value: relatively true (and accordingly: relatively false).

scholarly journals Convergence in National Alcohol Consumption Patterns: New Global Indicators

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander J. Holmes ◽  
Kym Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Alcohol Consumption ◽  
Soft Drink ◽  
Consumption Patterns ◽  
Demand Elasticity ◽  
Beverage Type ◽  
Time Space ◽  
Expenditure Data ◽  
Total Alcohol ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Global Indicators

AbstractWith increasing globalisation and interactions between cultures, countries are converging in many ways, including in their consumption patterns. The extent to which this has been the case in alcohol consumption has been the subject of previous studies, but those studies have been limited in scope to a specific region or group of high-income countries or to just one or two types of alcohol. The present study updates earlier findings, covers all countries of the world since 1961, and introduces two new summary indicators to capture additional dimensions of the extent of convergence in total alcohol consumption and in its mix of beverages. It also distinguishes countries according to whether their alcoholic focus was on wine, beer, or spirits in the early 1960s as well as their geographic regions and their real per-capita incomes. For recent years, we add expenditure data and compare alcohol with soft drink retail expenditure, and we show the difference it makes when unrecorded alcohol volumes are included as part of total alcohol consumption. The final section summarizes our findings and suggests that further research could provide new demand elasticity estimates and use econometrics to explain the varying extents of convergence over time, space, and beverage type. (JEL Classifications: D12, L66, N10)

Cultural Transmission and Stochastic Network Growth

2003 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
pp. 459-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Alexander Bentley ◽  
Stephen J. Shennan
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Evolution ◽  
Cultural Transmission ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Stochastic Network ◽  
Network Growth ◽  
Variant Frequency ◽  
Length Variant ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
Independent Decision

Archaeological theory has traditionally presupposed the existence of “battleship curves” in stylistic evolution, with little understanding about what governs the width (variant frequency) or length (variant lifespan) of these curves. In terms of these variables, we propose that there is a testable difference between independent decisions, unbiased transmission, and biased transmission in cultural evolution. We expect independent decision making to be represented by an exponential distribution of variant prevalence in the population. In contrast, unbiased transmission tends to be characterized by a power law or log-normal distribution of prevalence, while biased transmission should deviate significantly from the unbiased case. The difference between these categories may be fundamental to how cultural traits spread and persist. In order to make analytical predictions for unbiased transmission, we adapt a model of stochastic network growth that, by quantitatively demonstrating the inherent nonlinearity in unbiased transmission, can explain why a few highly popular styles can be expected to emerge in the course of cultural evolution. For the most part, this model predicts the frequencies of pottery decorations remarkably well over a 400-year span of Linearbandkeramik settlement in the Merzbach valley. Because the highest frequencies of actual motifs are somewhat less than predicted by our unbiased transmission model, we identify an anti-conformist, or pro-novelty, bias in the later phases of the Neolithic Merzbach Valley.

scholarly journals 3D CPFD Simulation of Circulating Fluidized Bed Downer and Riser: Comparisons of Flow Structure and Solids Back-Mixing Behavior

Processes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 161
Author(s):  
Yancong Liu ◽  
Yingya Wu ◽  
Xiaogang Shi ◽  
Chengxiu Wang ◽  
Jinsen Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fluidized Bed ◽  
Residence Time ◽  
Circulating Fluidized Bed ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Solids Holdup ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Large Clusters ◽  
Small Clusters ◽  
Cluster Behavior ◽  
Back Mixing

The difference of gas-solids flow between a circulating fluidized bed (CFB) downer and riser was compared by computational particle fluid dynamics (CPFD) approach. The comparison was conducted under the same operating conditions. Simulation results demonstrated that the downer showed much more uniform solids holdup and solids velocity distribution compared with the riser. The radial non-uniformity index of the solids holdup in the riser was over 10 times than that in the downer. In addition, small clusters tended to be present in the whole downer, large clusters tended to be present near the wall in riser. It was found that the different cluster behavior is important in determining the different flow behaviors of solids in the downer and riser. While the particle residence time increased evenly along the downward direction in the downer, particles with both shorter and longer residence time were predicted in the whole riser. The nearly vertical cumulative residence time distribution (RTD) curve in the downer further demonstrated that the solids back-mixing in the downer is limited while that in the riser is severe. Solids turbulence in the downer was much weaker compared with the riser, while the large clusters formation near the wall in the riser would hinder solids transportation ability.

Using Input-Output Diagram To Determine Spatial and Temporal Extents of a Queue Upstream of a Bottleneck

1997 ◽  
Vol 1572 (1) ◽  
pp. 140-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim W. Lawson ◽  
David J. Lovell ◽  
Carlos F. Daganzo
Keyword(s):  
Simple Approach ◽  
Traffic Signal ◽  
Maximum Length ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Time Space ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Bottleneck Capacity

A simple approach is described for modifying an input-output (or queue-ing) diagram to measure the time and distance spent by vehicles in a queue in a much simpler and self-serving manner than a time-space diagram. The graphic technique requires construction of a curve depicting the cumulative number of vehicles to have reached the back of the queue as a function of time, but, as indicated here, the technique can be easily automated with a spreadsheet. The technique is applied to the simple case of a constant departure rate from a bottleneck and to the slightly more general case of a bottleneck capacity that changes once, which is demonstrated to be applicable to the study of an undersaturated traffic signal. In the course of describing the usefulness of this technique for estimating several measures, including the maximum length of a physical queue and the time when this maximum occurs, the difference between “delay” at a bottleneck and the “time spent in queue,” which appears to have been confused in some of the literature, is clarified.

scholarly journals HEIDEGGER’S READINGS OF KANT: APPROPRIATION OF TIME AND SPACE THROUGH UNDERSTANDING THE HISTORICITY OF DA-SEIN AS BEING-IN-THE-WORLD

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 81-90
Author(s):  
Syed Alam Shah
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Basic Question ◽  
Pure Reason ◽  
Critique Of Pure Reason ◽  
The Public ◽  
Copernican Revolution ◽  
Time Space ◽  
Human Reality ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Being There

Heidegger’s reading of Kant is deciphered to have illuminated his own project concerning the basic question of Ontology, Time, Space and History [Temporality, Spatiality and Historicity] embodying the novel description of Human reality in terms of Mit-Dasein and Mit-welt [Subjectivity with the public face]. Kant’s Critique of Pure Reason led Heidegger develop his own project of Existential Phenomenology contrary to Husserilian Phenomenology. We will discuss the Kantian Heidegger following the two main issues: one, Heidegger appreciates Kant on his identifying and exploring the difference of ontic/ontological. Two, Kant prioritizes time over space. Heidegger would explore the subject of ontic/ontological difference in the sense that ontic knowledge is the knowledge of particular beings, whereas ontological knowledge is described as the a priori condition inferring the ontic knowledge. In this sense ontological knowledge pertains to question of being rather than beings. This is how Heidegger’s Kant interpretation would differ from the Neo-Kantianism of Marburg School which argued that Critique of Pure Reason is a work of epistemology. In contrast to this position, Heidegger held that Critique is a unique work of transcendental philosophy; it is theory of ontological knowledge but not ontic knowledge. Ontic knowledge of beings must conform to Being of beings [ontological foundation]. Heidegger holds that this should be Kant’s “Copernican Revolution”. However, Heidegger would appropriate the Kantian notion of time in the form of temporality of Dasein. Being manifests itself on beings through Being-there [Human reality] who purely understands Being. For Heidegger, temporality of Dasein is the foundation of ontological knowledge indeed.

scholarly journals Tsunami evacuation facility choice behavior model in flat area and rias area considering possibility to remain at home

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroyuki Yoshihara ◽  
Tatsuya Kishimoto
Keyword(s):  
Choice Behavior ◽  
Large Earthquake ◽  
Great East Japan Earthquake ◽  
Great Earthquake ◽  
Selection Probability ◽  
Flat Area ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Relationship

The tsunami associated with the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred on March 11, 2011 caused enormous damage to the coast of the Pacific Ocean. Since the occurrence of the Great Earthquake, it is urgent to develop tsunami evacuation countermeasures against the great tsunamis caused by the large earthquake that is expected to occur in the future in the country and coastal municipalities. In this study, we used logit model to estimate each parameters about the relationship between evacuees and buildings in flat area and rias area by using the evacuation behavior survey data of the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. The estimated results show that “whether the evacuation destination is home or not” is important when people choose the tsunami evacuation destination. Moreover, by comparing the moving in flat area and in rias area the difference between them becomes clear. By using these models, it enables to estimate the home selection probability in flat area and rias area.

scholarly journals Phytosociological Description of Ostrya Carpinifolia and Fraxinus Ornus Communities in the Julian Alps and in the Northern Part of the Dinaric Alps (NW and W Slovenia, NE Italy)

Hacquetia ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Dakskobler
Keyword(s):  
Beech Forest ◽  
Forest Belt ◽  
Spruce Forests ◽  
Diagnostic Species ◽  
Ne Italy ◽  
Northeastern Italy ◽  
New Association ◽  
Julian Alps ◽  
Ostrya Carpinifolia

Abstract Based on comparisons between similar communities in northeastern Italy, southern Austria, central and southeastern Slovenia, and western Croatia, we classified black hornbeam and flowering ash phytocoenoses on steep rocky sites in the beech forest belt in northwestern and western Slovenia into the association Fraxinio orni-Ostryetum Aichinger 1933 and described its new subassociation -phyteumatetosum columnae in the foothills of the Julian Alps and in the northern part of the Dinaric Alps. Black hornbeam and flowering ash stands on steep shady slopes with a higher proportion of diagnostic species of beech and spruce forests are classified into the new association Rhododendro hirsuti-Ostryetum Franz ex Dakskobler, ass. nov. hoc loco, new subassociation -mercurialietosum perennis and the provisional variant var. Hemerocallis lilioasphodelus whose stands are floristically rather similar to the stands of the association Hemerocallido-Ostryetum.

scholarly journals Exploring the hidden world of solute atoms, clusters and vacancies in aluminium alloys

2020 ◽  
Vol 326 ◽  
pp. 01001
Author(s):  
John Banhart ◽  
Zi Yang ◽  
Meng Liu ◽  
Mazen Madanat ◽  
Xingpu Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Formation ◽  
Artificial Ageing ◽  
Natural Ageing ◽  
Thermal Measurements ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Solute Atoms ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Open Question ◽  
Small Clusters ◽  
Kinetics Of

Precipitation hardening involves solutionising, quenching and annealing steps, the latter often at various temperatures. The phenomena observed in Al-Mg-Si alloys are very complicated and partially not well understood. During and after quenching, solute atoms diffuse through the lattice assisted by vacancies and form atom clusters that gradually grow. These act back onto vacancies, which complicates the situation. We apply positron annihilation techniques in addition to traditional hardness, resistivity and thermal measurements to clarify what happens in various stages of thermal treatment: The quenching process can be divided into a stage of vacancy loss and of precipitation. Very short artificial ageing treatments after heating at different rates show that there is a competition between vacancy losses and cluster formation as the temperature increases. The difference between natural ageing and artificial ageing can be defined based on the importance of excess vacancies. Based on such results the behaviour of “invisible” objects such as vacancies and small clusters can be better understood but some open question remain such as the kinetics of secondary ageing or the details of the negative effect of natural ageing on artificial ageing.

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