Estimating structural and parametric uncertainties in the simulated early Eocene surface warming

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Steinig ◽  
Fran J. Bragg ◽  
Peter J. Irvine ◽  
Daniel J. Lunt ◽  
Paul J. Valdes
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Parametric Uncertainty ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Parametric Uncertainties ◽  
Early Eocene ◽  
Meridional Temperature Gradient ◽  
Surface Warming

<p>Simulating the proxy-derived surface warming and reduced meridional temperature gradient of the early Eocene greenhouse climate still represents a challenge for most atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. A profound understanding of uncertainties associated with the respective model results is thereby essential to reliably identify any similarities or misfits to the proxy record. Besides incomplete knowledge of past greenhouse gas concentrations and other boundary conditions, structural and parametric uncertainties are the main factors that determine our confidence in paleoclimate simulation results.</p><p>The recent publication of coordinated model experiments that apply identical paleogeographic boundary conditions for key time periods of the early Eocene (DeepMIP) allows a systematic analysis of inter-model differences and therefore of structural uncertainties in the simulated surface warming. Here we additionally explore the parametric uncertainty of the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO) surface warming within one DeepMIP model. For this we performed perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) simulations with HadCM3B at different atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations following the DeepMIP protocol. Twenty-one parameter sets based on changes in six atmospheric parameters, a sea-ice parameter and the ocean background diffusivity were branched off from the respective DeepMIP control simulations and integrated for a further 1500 model years. The selected parameter sets are based on previous results demonstrating their ability to simulate a pre-industrial global-mean surface temperature within ±2 °C of the standard configuration.</p><p>Preliminary results indicate a large spread of the simulated low-latitude surface warming in the PPE and therefore significant changes of the large-scale meridional temperature gradient for the EECO. Some ensemble members develop numerical instabilities at CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations of 840 ppmv and above, most likely in consequence of high temperatures in the tropical troposphere. We further compare the magnitude of the parametric uncertainty of the HadCM3B perturbation experiments with the structural differences found in the DeepMIP multi-model ensemble and explore the sensitivity of the results to the strength of the applied greenhouse gas forcing. Model skill of the PPE members is tested against the most recent DeepMIP compilations of marine and terrestrial proxy temperatures.</p>

The Tropospheric Response to Tropical and Subtropical Zonally Asymmetric Torques: Analytical and Idealized Numerical Model Results

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 214-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiffany A. Shaw ◽  
William R. Boos
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Critical Line ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Meridional Temperature Gradient ◽  
Poleward Shift

Abstract The tropospheric response to prescribed tropical and subtropical zonally asymmetric torques, which can be considered as idealizations of vertical momentum transfers by orographic gravity waves or convection, is investigated. The linear analytical Gill model response to westward upper-tropospheric torques is compared to the response to a midtropospheric heating, which is a familiar point of reference. The response to an equatorial torque projects onto a Kelvin wave response to the east that is of opposite sign to the response to the east of the heating at upper levels. In contrast, the torque and heating both produce Rossby gyres of the same sign to the west of the forcing and the zonal-mean streamfunction responses are identical. When the forcings are shifted into the Northern Hemisphere, the streamfunction responses have opposite signs: there is upwelling in the Southern (Northern) Hemisphere in response to the torque (heating). The nonlinear response to westward torques was explored in idealized general circulation model experiments. In the absence of a large-scale meridional temperature gradient, the response to an equatorial torque was confined to the tropics and was qualitatively similar to the linear solutions. When the torque was moved into the subtropics, the vorticity budget response was similar to a downward control–type balance in the zonal mean. In the presence of a meridional temperature gradient, the response to an equatorial torque involved a poleward shift of the midlatitude tropospheric jet and Ferrel cell. The response in midlatitudes was associated with a poleward shift of the regions of horizontal eddy momentum flux convergence, which coincided with a shift in the upper-tropospheric critical line for baroclinic waves. The shift in the critical line was caused (in part) by the zonal wind response to the prescribed torque, suggesting a possible cause of the response in midlatitudes. Overall, this hierarchy of analytical and numerical results highlights robust aspects of the response to tropical and subtropical zonally asymmetric torques and represents the first step toward understanding the response in fully comprehensive general circulation models.

scholarly journals Impact of the Warming Pattern on Global Energetics

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (15) ◽  
pp. 5223-5240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Hernández-Deckers ◽  
Jin-Song von Storch
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Meridional Temperature Gradient ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Warming Pattern ◽  
Atmospheric Energetics ◽  
The Mean

Abstract The warming pattern due to higher greenhouse gas concentrations is expected to affect the global atmospheric energetics mainly via changes in the (i) meridional temperature gradient and (ii) mean static stability. Changes in surface meridional temperature gradients have been previously regarded as the determining feature for the energetics response, but recent studies suggest that changes in mean static stability may be more relevant than previously thought. This study aims to determine the relative importance of these two effects by comparing the energetics responses due to different warming patterns using a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. By means of an additional diabatic forcing, experiments with different warming patterns are obtained: one with a 2xCO2-like pattern that validates the method, one with only the tropical upper-tropospheric warming, and one with only the high-latitude surface warming. The study’s findings suggest that the dominant aspect of the warming pattern that alters the global atmospheric energetics is not its associated meridional temperature gradient changes, but the mean static stability changes. The tropical upper warming weakens the energetics by increasing the mean static stability, whereas the surface warming strengthens it by reducing the mean static stability. The combined 2xCO2-like response is dominated by the tropical upper-tropospheric warming effect, hence the weaker energetic activity. Eddy kinetic energy changes consistently, but the two opposite responses nearly cancel each other in the 2xCO2 case. Therefore, estimates of future changes in storminess may be particularly sensitive to the relative magnitude of the main features of the simulated warming pattern.

Drivers of (non-)linear Eocene surface warming in the DeepMIP ensemble

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Steinig ◽  
Jiang Zhu ◽  
Ran Feng ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Early Eocene ◽  
Meridional Heat Transport ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Global Mean

<p>The early Eocene greenhouse represents the warmest interval of the Cenozoic and therefore provides a unique opportunity to understand how the climate system operates under elevated atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels similar to those projected for the end of the 21st century. Early Eocene geological records indicate a large increase in global mean surface temperatures compared to present day (by ~14°C) and a greatly reduced meridional temperature gradient (by ~30% in SST). However, reproducing these large-scale climate features at reasonable CO<sub>2</sub> levels still poses a challenge for current climate models. Recent modelling studies indicate an important role for shortwave (SW) cloud feedbacks to drive increases in climate sensitivity with global warming, which helps to close the gap between simulated and reconstructed Eocene global warmth and temperature gradient. Nevertheless, the presence of such state-dependent feedbacks and their relative strengths in other models remain unclear.</p><p>In this study, we perform a systematic investigation of the simulated surface warming and the underlying mechanisms in the recently published DeepMIP ensemble. The DeepMIP early Eocene simulations use identical paleogeographic boundary conditions and include six models with suitable output: CESM1.2_CAM5, GFDL_CM2.1, HadCM3B_M2.1aN, IPSLCM5A2, MIROC4m and NorESM1_F. We advance previous energy balance analysis by applying the approximate partial radiative perturbation (APRP) technique to quantify the individual contributions of surface albedo, cloud and non-cloud atmospheric changes to the simulated Eocene top-of-the-atmosphere SW flux anomalies. We further compare the strength of these planetary albedo feedbacks to changes in the longwave atmospheric emissivity and meridional heat transport in the warm Eocene climate. Particular focus lies in the sensitivity of the feedback strengths to increasing global mean temperatures in experiments at a range of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations between x1 to x9 preindustrial levels.</p><p>Preliminary results indicate that all models that provide data for at least 3 different CO<sub>2</sub> levels show an increase of the equilibrium climate sensitivity at higher global mean temperatures. This is associated with an increase of the overall strength of the positive SW cloud feedback with warming in those models. This nonlinear behavior seems to be related to both a reduction and optical thinning of low-level clouds, albeit with intermodel differences in the relative importance of the two mechanisms. We further show that our new APRP results can differ significantly from previous estimates based on cloud radiative forcing alone, especially in high-latitude areas with large surface albedo changes. We also find large intermodel variability and state-dependence in meridional heat transport modulated by changes in the atmospheric latent heat transport. Ongoing work focuses on the spatial patterns of the climate feedbacks and the implications for the simulated meridional temperature gradients.</p>

scholarly journals Coupled ice sheet–climate modeling under glacial and pre-industrial boundary conditions

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1817-1836 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. A. Ziemen ◽  
C. B. Rodehacke ◽  
U. Mikolajewicz
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Quasi Equilibrium ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Ice Stream ◽  
First Results

Abstract. In the standard Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) experiments, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is modeled in quasi-equilibrium with atmosphere–ocean–vegetation general circulation models (AOVGCMs) with prescribed ice sheets. This can lead to inconsistencies between the modeled climate and ice sheets. One way to avoid this problem would be to model the ice sheets explicitly. Here, we present the first results from coupled ice sheet–climate simulations for the pre-industrial times and the LGM. Our setup consists of the AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ bidirectionally coupled with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) covering the Northern Hemisphere. The results of the pre-industrial and LGM simulations agree reasonably well with reconstructions and observations. This shows that the model system adequately represents large, non-linear climate perturbations. A large part of the drainage of the ice sheets occurs in ice streams. Most modeled ice stream systems show recurring surges as internal oscillations. The Hudson Strait Ice Stream surges with an ice volume equivalent to about 5 m sea level and a recurrence interval of about 7000 yr. This is in agreement with basic expectations for Heinrich events. Under LGM boundary conditions, different ice sheet configurations imply different locations of deep water formation.

scholarly journals Boundary conditions for the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT v1.0)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda Frigola ◽  
Matthias Prange ◽  
Michael Schulz
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Middle Miocene ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Climate Transition

Abstract. The Middle Miocene Climate Transition was characterized by major Antarctic ice-sheet expansion and global cooling during the interval ~ 15–13 Ma. Here we present two sets of boundary conditions for global general circulation models characterizing the periods before (Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum; MMCO) and after (Middle Miocene Glaciation; MMG) the transition. These boundary conditions include Middle Miocene global topography, bathymetry and vegetation. Additionally, Antarctic ice volume and geometry, sea-level and atmospheric CO2 concentration estimates for the MMCO and the MMG are reviewed. The boundary-condition files are available for use as input in a wide variety of global climate models and constitute a valuable tool for modeling studies with a focus on the Middle Miocene.

On the use of idealised test cases for ocean model development

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie Deshayes
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Development ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Test Cases ◽  
Training Tool ◽  
Research Activities ◽  
Historical Progress

<p>When comparing realistic simulations produced by two ocean general circulation models, differences may emerge from alternative choices in boundary conditions and forcings, which alters our capacity to identify the actual differences between the two models (in the equations solved, the discretization schemes employed and/or the parameterizations introduced). The use of idealised test cases (idealized configurations with analytical boundary conditions and forcings, resolving a given set of equations) has proven efficient to reveal numerical bugs, determine advantages and pitfalls of certain numerical choices, and highlight remaining challenges. I propose to review historical progress enabled by the use of idealised test cases, and promote their utilization when assessing ocean dynamics as represented by an ocean model. For the latter, I would illustrate my talk using illustrations from my own research activities using NEMO in various contexts. I also see idealised test cases as a promising training tool for inexperienced ocean modellers, and an efficient solution to enlarge collaboration with experts in adjacent disciplines, such as mathematics, fluid dynamics and computer sciences.</p>

Exploring the possible meridional temperature gradient of Early Eocene Climatic Optimum with an energy balance model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fanni Dora Kelemen ◽  
Bodo Ahrens
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Entropy Production ◽  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Early Eocene ◽  
Meridional Temperature Gradient ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Maximum Entropy Production ◽  
Early Eocene Climatic Optimum ◽  
Climatic Optimum

<p>Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO, ~53-51 million years) is one of the past warm periods, associated with high CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations (~900-2500 ppmv), which can serve as an analogue for our possible future, high C0<sub>2 </sub>climate. One notable feature of this hothouse climate state is the weaker meridional temperature gradient relative to pre-industrial values. This have been confirmed by both proxies and models, but the extent of the temperature gradient still requires more research. Models are challenged to reproduce the stronger than present day polar amplification signal, and it is also shown that high latitude proxy data are often influenced by seasonal bias. Thus, there is an uncertainty regarding both the observed and modelled meridional gradient and the mentioned issues complicate also the comparison between modeled and proxy data.</p><p>In our work we aim to investigate the EECO period with a simple energy balance box model and apply the maximum entropy production principle to explore the possible scenarios of meridional temperature gradients. We find that the maximum entropy production principle could be beneficial in the paleoclimate context since it has the utility to give an accurate prediction for non-equilibrium systems with the minimal amount of information. We also assess the heat transport signaled by proxy data and by state-of-the-art model outputs in accordance to our theoretical constrains based on the idealized test case.</p>

A Multimodel Study of Parametric Uncertainty in Predictions of Climate Response to Rising Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 1362-1377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin M. Sanderson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Parametric Uncertainty ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
Positive Feedbacks ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Atmosphere Model ◽  
Hadley Centre

Abstract One tool for studying uncertainties in simulations of future climate is to consider ensembles of general circulation models where parameterizations have been sampled within their physical range of plausibility. This study is about simulations from two such ensembles: a subset of the climateprediction.net ensemble using the Met Office Hadley Centre Atmosphere Model, version 3.0 and the new “CAMcube” ensemble using the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.5. The study determines that the distribution of climate sensitivity in the two ensembles is very different: the climateprediction.net ensemble subset range is 1.7–9.9 K, while the CAMcube ensemble range is 2.2–3.2 K. On a regional level, however, both ensembles show a similarly diverse range in their mean climatology. Model radiative flux changes suggest that the major difference between the ranges of climate sensitivity in the two ensembles lies in their clear-sky longwave responses. Large clear-sky feedbacks present only in the climateprediction.net ensemble are found to be proportional to significant biases in upper-tropospheric water vapor concentrations, which are not observed in the CAMcube ensemble. Both ensembles have a similar range of shortwave cloud feedback, making it unlikely that they are causing the larger climate sensitivities in climateprediction.net. In both cases, increased negative shortwave cloud feedbacks at high latitudes are generally compensated by increased positive feedbacks at lower latitudes.

scholarly journals Influence of the SST Rise on Baroclinic Instability Wave Activity under an Aquaplanet Condition

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (8) ◽  
pp. 2272-2287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chihiro Kodama ◽  
Toshiki Iwasaki
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Wave Energy ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Instability Wave ◽  
Meridional Temperature Gradient ◽  
Poleward Shift

Abstract The influence of the sea surface temperature (SST) rise on extratropical baroclinic instability wave activity is investigated using an aquaplanet general circulation model (GCM). Two types of runs were performed: the High+3 run, in which the SST is increased by 3 K only at high latitudes, and the All+3 run, in which the SST is increased uniformly by 3 K all over the globe. These SST rises were intended to reproduce essential changes of the surface air temperature due to global warming. Wave activity changes are analyzed and discussed from the viewpoint of the energetics. In the High+3 run, midlatitude meridional temperature gradient is decreased in the lower troposphere and the wave energy is suppressed in the extratropics. In the All+3 run, although the large tropical latent heat release greatly enhances the midlatitude meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere, global mean wave energy does not change significantly. These results suggest that the low-level baroclinicity is much more important for baroclinic instability wave activity than upper-level baroclinicity. A poleward shift of wave energy, seen in global warming simulations, is evident in the All+3 run. Wave energy generation analysis suggests that the poleward shift of wave activity may be caused by the enhanced and poleward-shifted baroclinicity in the higher latitudes and the increased static stability in the lower latitudes. Poleward expansion of the high-baroclinicity region is still an open question.

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