Drivers of (non-)linear Eocene surface warming in the DeepMIP ensemble

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Steinig ◽  
Jiang Zhu ◽  
Ran Feng ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Early Eocene ◽  
Meridional Heat Transport ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Global Mean

<p>The early Eocene greenhouse represents the warmest interval of the Cenozoic and therefore provides a unique opportunity to understand how the climate system operates under elevated atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> levels similar to those projected for the end of the 21st century. Early Eocene geological records indicate a large increase in global mean surface temperatures compared to present day (by ~14°C) and a greatly reduced meridional temperature gradient (by ~30% in SST). However, reproducing these large-scale climate features at reasonable CO<sub>2</sub> levels still poses a challenge for current climate models. Recent modelling studies indicate an important role for shortwave (SW) cloud feedbacks to drive increases in climate sensitivity with global warming, which helps to close the gap between simulated and reconstructed Eocene global warmth and temperature gradient. Nevertheless, the presence of such state-dependent feedbacks and their relative strengths in other models remain unclear.</p><p>In this study, we perform a systematic investigation of the simulated surface warming and the underlying mechanisms in the recently published DeepMIP ensemble. The DeepMIP early Eocene simulations use identical paleogeographic boundary conditions and include six models with suitable output: CESM1.2_CAM5, GFDL_CM2.1, HadCM3B_M2.1aN, IPSLCM5A2, MIROC4m and NorESM1_F. We advance previous energy balance analysis by applying the approximate partial radiative perturbation (APRP) technique to quantify the individual contributions of surface albedo, cloud and non-cloud atmospheric changes to the simulated Eocene top-of-the-atmosphere SW flux anomalies. We further compare the strength of these planetary albedo feedbacks to changes in the longwave atmospheric emissivity and meridional heat transport in the warm Eocene climate. Particular focus lies in the sensitivity of the feedback strengths to increasing global mean temperatures in experiments at a range of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations between x1 to x9 preindustrial levels.</p><p>Preliminary results indicate that all models that provide data for at least 3 different CO<sub>2</sub> levels show an increase of the equilibrium climate sensitivity at higher global mean temperatures. This is associated with an increase of the overall strength of the positive SW cloud feedback with warming in those models. This nonlinear behavior seems to be related to both a reduction and optical thinning of low-level clouds, albeit with intermodel differences in the relative importance of the two mechanisms. We further show that our new APRP results can differ significantly from previous estimates based on cloud radiative forcing alone, especially in high-latitude areas with large surface albedo changes. We also find large intermodel variability and state-dependence in meridional heat transport modulated by changes in the atmospheric latent heat transport. Ongoing work focuses on the spatial patterns of the climate feedbacks and the implications for the simulated meridional temperature gradients.</p>

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Global Warming to Carbon Emissions: Effects of Heat and Carbon Uptake in a Suite of Earth System Models

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (23) ◽  
pp. 9343-9363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard G. Williams ◽  
Vassil Roussenov ◽  
Philip Goodwin ◽  
Laure Resplandy ◽  
Laurent Bopp
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
System Models ◽  
Heat Uptake ◽  
Earth System Models

Climate projections reveal global-mean surface warming increasing nearly linearly with cumulative carbon emissions. The sensitivity of surface warming to carbon emissions is interpreted in terms of a product of three terms: the dependence of surface warming on radiative forcing, the fractional radiative forcing from CO2, and the dependence of radiative forcing from CO2 on carbon emissions. Mechanistically each term varies, respectively, with climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake, radiative forcing contributions, and ocean and terrestrial carbon uptake. The sensitivity of surface warming to fossil-fuel carbon emissions is examined using an ensemble of Earth system models, forced either by an annual increase in atmospheric CO2 or by RCPs until year 2100. The sensitivity of surface warming to carbon emissions is controlled by a temporal decrease in the dependence of radiative forcing from CO2 on carbon emissions, which is partly offset by a temporal increase in the dependence of surface warming on radiative forcing. The decrease in the dependence of radiative forcing from CO2 is due to a decline in the ratio of the global ocean carbon undersaturation to carbon emissions, while the increase in the dependence of surface warming is due to a decline in the ratio of ocean heat uptake to radiative forcing. At the present time, there are large intermodel differences in the sensitivity in surface warming to carbon emissions, which are mainly due to uncertainties in the climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake. These uncertainties undermine the ability to predict how much carbon may be emitted before reaching a warming target.

scholarly journals Oceanic Overturning and Heat Transport: The Role of Background Diffusivity

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 701-716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magnus Hieronymus ◽  
Jonas Nycander ◽  
Johan Nilsson ◽  
Kristofer Döös ◽  
Robert Hallberg
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Meridional Heat Transport ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Meridional Overturning

The role of oceanic background diapycnal diffusion for the equilibrium climate state is investigated in the global coupled climate model CM2G. Special emphasis is put on the oceanic meridional overturning and heat transport. Six runs with the model, differing only by their value of the background diffusivity, are run to steady state and the statistically steady integrations are compared. The diffusivity changes have large-scale impacts on many aspects of the climate system. Two examples are the volume-mean potential temperature, which increases by 3.6°C between the least and most diffusive runs, and the Antarctic sea ice extent, which decreases rapidly as the diffusivity increases. The overturning scaling with diffusivity is found to agree rather well with classical theoretical results for the upper but not for the lower cell. An alternative empirical scaling with the mixing energy is found to give good results for both cells. The oceanic meridional heat transport increases strongly with the diffusivity, an increase that can only partly be explained by increases in the meridional overturning. The increasing poleward oceanic heat transport is accompanied by a decrease in its atmospheric counterpart, which keeps the increase in the planetary energy transport small compared to that in the ocean.

scholarly journals Exploring the sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to different surface temperature forcing using a statistical–dynamical atmospheric model

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonja Totz ◽  
Stefan Petri ◽  
Jascha Lehmann ◽  
Erik Peukert ◽  
Dim Coumou
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Planetary Waves ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Meridional Temperature Gradient ◽  
Jet Streams ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Climate and weather conditions in the mid-latitudes are strongly driven by the large-scale atmosphere circulation. Observational data indicate that important components of the large-scale circulation have changed in recent decades, including the strength and the width of the Hadley cell, jets, storm tracks and planetary waves. Here, we use a new statistical–dynamical atmosphere model (SDAM) to test the individual sensitivities of the large-scale atmospheric circulation to changes in the zonal temperature gradient, meridional temperature gradient and global-mean temperature. We analyze the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation, jet streams, storm tracks and planetary waves by systematically altering the zonal temperature asymmetry, the meridional temperature gradient and the global-mean temperature. Our results show that the strength of the Hadley cell, storm tracks and jet streams depend, in terms of relative changes, almost linearly on both the global-mean temperature and the meridional temperature gradient, whereas the zonal temperature asymmetry has little or no influence. The magnitude of planetary waves is affected by all three temperature components, as expected from theoretical dynamical considerations. The width of the Hadley cell behaves nonlinearly with respect to all three temperature components in the SDAM. Moreover, some of these observed large-scale atmospheric changes are expected from dynamical equations and are therefore an important part of model validation.

scholarly journals Time-Varying Climate Sensitivity from Regional Feedbacks

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (13) ◽  
pp. 4518-4534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle C. Armour ◽  
Cecilia M. Bitz ◽  
Gerard H. Roe
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Time Variation ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Geographic Pattern ◽  
Surface Warming

Abstract The sensitivity of global climate with respect to forcing is generally described in terms of the global climate feedback—the global radiative response per degree of global annual mean surface temperature change. While the global climate feedback is often assumed to be constant, its value—diagnosed from global climate models—shows substantial time variation under transient warming. Here a reformulation of the global climate feedback in terms of its contributions from regional climate feedbacks is proposed, providing a clear physical insight into this behavior. Using (i) a state-of-the-art global climate model and (ii) a low-order energy balance model, it is shown that the global climate feedback is fundamentally linked to the geographic pattern of regional climate feedbacks and the geographic pattern of surface warming at any given time. Time variation of the global climate feedback arises naturally when the pattern of surface warming evolves, actuating feedbacks of different strengths in different regions. This result has substantial implications for the ability to constrain future climate changes from observations of past and present climate states. The regional climate feedbacks formulation also reveals fundamental biases in a widely used method for diagnosing climate sensitivity, feedbacks, and radiative forcing—the regression of the global top-of-atmosphere radiation flux on global surface temperature. Further, it suggests a clear mechanism for the “efficacies” of both ocean heat uptake and radiative forcing.

scholarly journals A Re-evaluation of Climate Sensitivity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Harold Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Systematic Errors ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Past ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Paleoclimate Data

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is the change in global mean temperature expected to result from doubling atmospheric CO2 concentration from pre-industrial levels. Extensive research during the past 40 years has not reduced the uncertainty associated with ECS. Sherwood et al. [1] applied Bayesian statistics to evidence from climate-process physics, historical observations and earlier proxies to reduce the range of ECS from 1.5 – 4.5 K to 2.6 – 4.1 K. This paper examines their methods and many of the assumptions they made. It also evaluates two additional periods in the Holocene to show that factors other than CO2 drove recent climate change. It identifies potential systematic errors resulting from adding non-equilibrium short-term adjustments to the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and from underestimating the effects of solar irradiance, ocean currents and aerosols. These factors have resulted in estimates of the forcing by CO2 that far exceed the apparent effects in paleoclimate data.

scholarly journals Global contributions of mesoscale dynamics to meridional heat transport

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Delman ◽  
Tong Lee
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Planetary Wave ◽  
Mesoscale Eddy ◽  
Instability Wave ◽  
Meridional Heat Transport ◽  
The North ◽  
Flux Variability ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. Mesoscale ocean processes are prevalent in many parts of the global oceans, and may contribute substantially to the meridional movement of heat. Yet earlier global surveys of meridional heat transport (MHT) have not formally distinguished between mesoscale and large-scale contributions, or have defined eddy contributions based on temporal rather than spatial characteristics. This work uses spatial filtering methods to separate large-scale (gyre and planetary wave) contributions from mesoscale (eddy, recirculation, and tropical instability wave) contributions to MHT by extending beyond a previous effort for the North Atlantic Ocean. Overall, mesoscale temperature fluxes produce a net poleward MHT at mid-latitudes and equatorward MHT in the tropics, thereby resulting in a net divergence of heat from the subtropics. Mesoscale temperature fluxes are often concentrated near the energetic currents at western boundaries, and the temperature difference between the boundary current and its recirculation determines the direction of the mesoscale temperature flux. The mesoscale contribution to MHT yields substantially different results from temporally-based eddy contributions to MHT, with the latter contributed substantially by gyre and planetary wave motions at low latitudes. Mesoscale temperature fluxes contribute the most to interannual and decadal variability of MHT in the Southern Ocean, the tropical Indo-Pacific, and the North Atlantic. Surface eddy kinetic energy (EKE) is not a good proxy for mesoscale temperature flux variability in regions with the highest time-mean EKE, though it does explain much of the temperature flux variability in regions of modest time-mean EKE. This approach to quantifying mesoscale fluxes can be used to improve parameterizations of mesoscale effects in coarse-resolution models, and assess regional impacts of mesoscale eddies and recirculations on tracer fluxes.

scholarly journals Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and latest Paleocene

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1953-1968 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordon N. Inglis ◽  
Fran Bragg ◽  
Natalie J. Burls ◽  
Margot J. Cramwinckel ◽  
David Evans ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Early Eocene ◽  
Early Eocene Climatic Optimum ◽  
Thermal Maximum ◽  
Global Mean Surface Temperature ◽  
Climatic Optimum ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history. Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (∼9 to 23 ∘C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, we employ a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during the three DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (∼57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 ∘C (22.3 to 28.3 ∘C), 31.6 ∘C (27.2 to 34.5 ∘C), and 27.0 ∘C (23.2 to 29.7 ∘C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are ∼10 to 16 ∘C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 ∘C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large “signal” associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that “bulk” equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 ∘C (2.4 to 6.8 ∘C), 3.6 ∘C (2.3 to 4.7 ∘C), and 3.1 ∘C (1.8 to 4.4 ∘C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values (<1.5 per doubling CO2).

Estimating structural and parametric uncertainties in the simulated early Eocene surface warming

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Steinig ◽  
Fran J. Bragg ◽  
Peter J. Irvine ◽  
Daniel J. Lunt ◽  
Paul J. Valdes
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Parametric Uncertainty ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Parametric Uncertainties ◽  
Early Eocene ◽  
Meridional Temperature Gradient ◽  
Surface Warming

&lt;p&gt;Simulating the proxy-derived surface warming and reduced meridional temperature gradient of the early Eocene greenhouse climate still represents a challenge for most atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. A profound understanding of uncertainties associated with the respective model results is thereby essential to reliably identify any similarities or misfits to the proxy record. Besides incomplete knowledge of past greenhouse gas concentrations and other boundary conditions, structural and parametric uncertainties are the main factors that determine our confidence in paleoclimate simulation results.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The recent publication of coordinated model experiments that apply identical paleogeographic boundary conditions for key time periods of the early Eocene (DeepMIP) allows a systematic analysis of inter-model differences and therefore of structural uncertainties in the simulated surface warming. Here we additionally explore the parametric uncertainty of the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO) surface warming within one DeepMIP model. For this we performed perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) simulations with HadCM3B at different atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations following the DeepMIP protocol. Twenty-one parameter sets based on changes in six atmospheric parameters, a sea-ice parameter and the ocean background diffusivity were branched off from the respective DeepMIP control simulations and integrated for a further 1500 model years. The selected parameter sets are based on previous results demonstrating their ability to simulate a pre-industrial global-mean surface temperature within &amp;#177;2 &amp;#176;C of the standard configuration.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Preliminary results indicate a large spread of the simulated low-latitude surface warming in the PPE and therefore significant changes of the large-scale meridional temperature gradient for the EECO. Some ensemble members develop numerical instabilities at CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations of 840 ppmv and above, most likely in consequence of high temperatures in the tropical troposphere. We further compare the magnitude of the parametric uncertainty of the HadCM3B perturbation experiments with the structural differences found in the DeepMIP multi-model ensemble and explore the sensitivity of the results to the strength of the applied greenhouse gas forcing. Model skill of the PPE members is tested against the most recent DeepMIP compilations of marine and terrestrial proxy temperatures.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Sensitivity of surface temperature to radiative forcing by contrail cirrus in a radiative-mixing model

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (22) ◽  
pp. 13833-13848 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrich Schumann ◽  
Bernhard Mayer
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Temperature Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
Vertical Component ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Surface Energy Budget ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Surface Warming

Abstract. Earth's surface temperature sensitivity to radiative forcing (RF) by contrail cirrus and the related RF efficacy relative to CO2 are investigated in a one-dimensional idealized model of the atmosphere. The model includes energy transport by shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiation and by mixing in an otherwise fixed reference atmosphere (no other feedbacks). Mixing includes convective adjustment and turbulent diffusion, where the latter is related to the vertical component of mixing by large-scale eddies. The conceptual study shows that the surface temperature sensitivity to given contrail RF depends strongly on the timescales of energy transport by mixing and radiation. The timescales are derived for steady layered heating (ghost forcing) and for a transient contrail cirrus case. The radiative timescales are shortest at the surface and shorter in the troposphere than in the mid-stratosphere. Without mixing, a large part of the energy induced into the upper troposphere by radiation due to contrails or similar disturbances gets lost to space before it can contribute to surface warming. Because of the different radiative forcing at the surface and at top of atmosphere (TOA) and different radiative heating rate profiles in the troposphere, the local surface temperature sensitivity to stratosphere-adjusted RF is larger for SW than for LW contrail forcing. Without mixing, the surface energy budget is more important for surface warming than the TOA budget. Hence, surface warming by contrails is smaller than suggested by the net RF at TOA. For zero mixing, cooling by contrails cannot be excluded. This may in part explain low efficacy values for contrails found in previous global circulation model studies. Possible implications of this study are discussed. Since the results of this study are model dependent, they should be tested with a comprehensive climate model in the future.

scholarly journals Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (11) ◽  
pp. e1501923 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Friedrich ◽  
Axel Timmermann ◽  
Michelle Tigchelaar ◽  
Oliver Elison Timm ◽  
Andrey Ganopolski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Glacial Cycles ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Future Warming ◽  
Global Mean

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing—referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S)—is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations andSusing a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal thatSis strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth’s future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections.

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