High-resolution regional projections of sea level changes along Western European coasts during the 21st century

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alisée Chaigneau ◽  
Guillaume Reffray ◽  
Aurore Voldoire ◽  
Angélique Melet
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Coastal Processes ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Sea Level Changes

<p>Coastal regions are subject to an increasing anthropogenic pressure. Projections of coastal sea level changes are of great interest for coastal risk assessment and decision-making processes. Sea level projections are typically produced using global climate models. However, their coarse resolution limits the realism of the representation of coastal dynamical processes influencing sea level changes at the coast, potentially leading to substantial biases. Dynamical downscaling methods can be used to refine projections at regional scales by increasing the model spatial resolution and by explicitly including more processes. Such methods rely on the implementation of a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM). </p><p>In this work, we developed the IBI-CCS regional ocean model based on a 1/12° North Eastern Atlantic NEMO ocean model configuration. IBI-CCS includes coastal processes such as tides and atmospheric pressure forcing in addition to the ocean general circulation (dynamic sea level). This RCM is used to perform a dynamical downscaling of CNRM-CM6-1-HR, a global climate model (GCM) developed by the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) with a 1/4° resolution over the ocean. CNRM-CM6-1-HR contributes to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6th Phase (CMIP6). IBI-CCS is thus forced by the GCM ocean and atmospheric outputs at the lateral and air-sea boundaries. Several corrections were applied to the GCM forcings to avoid the propagation of climate drifts and biases into the regional simulations. The computations are performed over the 1950 to 2100 period for several CMIP6 climate change scenarios.</p><p>In order to validate the dynamical downscaling method, the regionally downscaled (IBI-CCS) and GCM (CNRM-CM6-1-HR) simulations are compared to reanalyses and observational datasets over the 1993-2014 period. These comparisons are performed at different time scales for a selection of ocean variables including sea level. The results show that large scale performances of IBI-CCS are better than those of the GCM thanks to the corrections applied. In addition, high frequency diagnostics are carried out and highlight for example that IBI-CCS sea level extreme events are similar to those of a reference regional ocean reanalysis. In a second phase, the RCM and GCM sea level rise projections are compared over the 21<sup>st</sup> century. These comparisons allow to investigate the impact of the model resolution and of a more complete representation of coastal processes for the simulation of projected sea level changes. </p>

scholarly journals IBI-CCS: a regional high-resolution model to evaluate western Europe sea level changes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alisée A. Chaigneau ◽  
Guillaume Reffray ◽  
Aurore Voldoire ◽  
Angélique Melet
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Complete Representation

Abstract. Projections of coastal sea level (SL) changes are of great interest for coastal risk assessment and decision-making. SL projections are typically produced using global climate models (GCMs) which cannot fully resolve SL changes at the coast due to their coarse resolution and lack of representation of some relevant processes. To overcome these limitations and refine projections at regional scales, GCMs can be dynamically downscaled through the implementation of a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM). In this study, we developed the IBI-CCS regional ocean model based on a 1/12 ° north-eastern Atlantic NEMO ocean model configuration to dynamically downscale CNRM-CM6-1-HR, a GCM with a ¼ ° resolution ocean model component developed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6th Phase (CMIP6) by the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM). For a more complete representation of processes driving coastal SL changes, tides and atmospheric surface pressure forcing are explicitly resolved in IBI-CCS in addition to the ocean general circulation. To limit the propagation of climate drifts and biases from the GCM into the regional simulations, several corrections are applied to the GCM fields used to force the RCM. The regional simulations are performed over the 1950 to 2100 period for two climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). To validate the dynamical downscaling method, the RCM and GCM simulations are compared to reanalyses and observations over the 1993–2014 period for a selection of ocean variables including SL. Results indicate that large-scale performances of IBI-CCS are better than those of the GCM thanks to the corrections applied to the RCM. Extreme SLs are also satisfactorily represented in the IBI-CCS historical simulation. Comparison of the RCM and GCM 21st century projections show a limited impact of increased resolution (1/4° to 1/12°) on SL changes. Overall, bias corrections have a moderate impact on projected coastal SL changes projections, except in the Mediterranean Sea where GCM biases were substantial.

An evaluation of the surface climatology over the Totten region (Antarctica) using COSMO-CLM2

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Helsen ◽  
Sam Vanden Broucke ◽  
Alexandra Gossart ◽  
Niels Souverijns ◽  
Nicole van Lipzig
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Outlet Glacier ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>The Totten glacier is a highly dynamic outlet glacier, situated in E-Antarctica, that contains a potential sea level rise of about 3.5 meters. During recent years, this area has been influenced by sub-shelf intrusion of warm ocean currents, contributing to higher basal melt rates. Moreover, most of the ice over this area is grounded below sea level, which makes the ice shelf potentially vulnerable to the marine ice sheet instability mechanism. It is expected that, as a result of climate change, the latter mechanisms may contribute to significant ice losses in this region within the next decades, thereby contributing to future sea level rise. Up to now, most studies have been focusing on sub-shelf melt rates and the influence of the ocean, with much less attention for atmospheric processes (often ignored), which also play a key-role in determining the climatic conditions over this region. For example: surface melt is important because it contributes to hydrofracturing, a process that may lead to ice cliff instabilities. Also precipitation is an important atmospheric process, since it determines the input of mass to the ice sheet and contributes directly to the surface mass balance. In order to perform detailed studies on these processes, we need a well-evaluated climate model that represents all these processes well. Recently, the COSMO-CLM<sup>2</sup> (CCLM<sup>2</sup>) model was adapted to the climatological conditions over Antarctica. The model was evaluated by comparing a 30 year Antarctic-wide hindcast run (1986-2016) at 25 km resolution with meteorological observational products (Souverijns et al., 2019). It was shown that the model performance is comparable to other state-of-the-art regional climate models over the Antarctic region. We now applied the CCLM<sup>2</sup> model in a regional configuration over the Totten glacier area (E-Antarctica) at 5 km resolution and evaluated its performance over this region by comparing it to climatological observations from different stations. We show that the performance for temperature in the high resolution run is comparable to the performance of the Antarctic-wide run. Precipitation is, however, overestimated in the high-resolution run, especially over dome structures (Law-Dome). Therefore, we applied an orographic smoothening, which clearly improves the precipitation pattern with respect to observations. Wind speed is overestimated in some places, which is solved by increasing the surface roughness. This research frames in the context of the PARAMOUR project. Within PARAMOUR, CCLM<sup>2 </sup>is currently being coupled to an ocean model (NEMO) and an ice sheet model (f.ETISh/BISICLES) in order to understand decadal predictability over this region.</p>

scholarly journals Strategy for generation of climate change projections feeding Spanish impact community

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 217-230
Author(s):  
María Pilar Amblar-Francés ◽  
María Asunción Pastor-Saavedra ◽  
María Jesús Casado-Calle ◽  
Petra Ramos-Calzado ◽  
Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
National Level ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Projections

Abstract. Over the past decades, the successive Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs) have produced a huge amount of global climate model simulations. Along these years, the climate models have advanced and can thus provide credible evolution of climate at least at continental or global scales since they are better representing physical processes and feedbacks in the climate system. Nevertheless, due to the coarse horizontal resolution of global climate models, it is necessary to downscale these results for their use to assess possible future impacts of climate change in climate sensitive ecosystems and sectors and to adopt adaptation strategies at local and national level. In this vein, the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has been producing since 2006 a set of reference downscaled climate change projections over Spain either applying statistical downscaling techniques to the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) or making use of the information generated by dynamical downscaling techniques through European projects or international initiatives such as PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES and EURO-CORDEX. The AEMET strategy aims at exploiting all the available sources of information on climate change projections. The generalized use of statistical and dynamical downscaling approaches allow us to encompass a great number of global models and therefore to provide a better estimation of uncertainty. Most impact climate change studies over Spain make use of this reference downscaled projections emphasizing the estimation of uncertainties. Additionally to the rationale and history behind the AEMET generation of climate change scenarios, we focus on some preliminary analysis of the dependency of estimated uncertainties on the different sources of data.

scholarly journals Assessing Past Climate Biases and the Added Value of CORDEX-CORE Precipitation Simulations over Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2058
Author(s):  
Gnim Tchalim Gnitou ◽  
Guirong Tan ◽  
Ruoyun Niu ◽  
Isaac Kwesi Nooni
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Wide Range

The present study investigates the skills of CORDEX-CORE precipitation outputs in simulating Africa’s key seasonal climate features, emphasizing the added value (AV) of the dynamical downscaling approach from which they were derived. The results indicate the models’ good skills in capturing African rainfall patterns and dynamics at satellite-based observation resolutions, with up to 65.17% significant positive AV spatial coverage for the CCLM5 model and up to 55.47% significant positive AV spatial coverage for the REMO model. Unavoidable biases are however present in rainfall-abundant areas and are reflected in the AV results, but vary based on the season, the sub-area, and the Global Climate Model–Regional Climate Models (GCM-RCM) combination considered. The RCMs’ ensemble mean generally performs better than individual GCM–RCM simulations. A further analysis of the GCM–RCM model chain indicates a strong influence of the dynamical downscaling approach on the driving GCMs. However, exceptions are found in some seasons for specific RCMs’ outputs, where GCMs are influential. The findings also revealed that observational uncertainties can influence AV and contribute to a 6 to 34% difference in significant positive AV spatial coverage results. An analysis of these results suggests that the AV by CORDEX-CORE simulations over Africa depend on how well the GCM physics are integrated to those of the RCMs and how these features are accommodated in the high-resolution setting of the downscaling experiments. The deficiencies of the CORDEX-CORE simulations could be related to how well key processes are represented within the RCM models. For Africa, these results show that CORDEX-CORE products could be adequate for a wide range of high-resolution precipitation data applications.

scholarly journals On the geophysical processes impacting palaeo-sea-level observations

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusuke Yokoyama ◽  
Anthony Purcell
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Geophysical Processes

AbstractPast sea-level change represents the large-scale state of global climate, reflecting the waxing and waning of global ice sheets and the corresponding effect on ocean volume. Recent developments in sampling and analytical methods enable us to more precisely reconstruct past sea-level changes using geological indicators dated by radiometric methods. However, ice-volume changes alone cannot wholly account for these observations of local, relative sea-level change because of various geophysical factors including glacio-hydro-isostatic adjustments (GIA). The mechanisms behind GIA cannot be ignored when reconstructing global ice volume, yet they remain poorly understood within the general sea-level community. In this paper, various geophysical factors affecting sea-level observations are discussed and the details and impacts of these processes on estimates of past ice volumes are introduced.

scholarly journals High-resolution isotope stratigraphy of the Lower Ordovician St. George Group of western Newfoundland, Canada: implications for global correlation

2009 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 403-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karem Azmy ◽  
Denis Lavoie
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Global Correlation ◽  
Lower Ordovician ◽  
Isotope Stratigraphy ◽  
Platform Carbonates ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Marine Platform ◽  
Bottom To Top

The Lower Ordovician St. George Group of western Newfoundland consists mainly of shallow-marine-platform carbonates (∼500 m thick). It is formed, from bottom to top, of the Watts Bight, Boat Harbour, Catoche, and Aguathuna formations. The top boundary of the group is marked by the regional St. George Unconformity. Outcrops and a few cores from western Newfoundland were sampled at high resolution and the extracted micritic materials were investigated for their petrographic and geochemical criteria to evaluate their degree of preservation. The δ13C and δ18O values of well-preserved micrite microsamples range from –4.2‰ to 0‰ (VPDB) and from –11.3‰ to –2.9‰ (VPDB), respectively. The δ13Ccarb profile of the St. George Group carbonates reveals several negative shifts, which vary between ∼2‰ and 3‰ and are generally associated with unconformities–disconformities or thin shale interbeds, thus reflecting the effect of or link with significant sea-level changes. The St. George Unconformity is associated with a negative δ13Ccarb shift (∼2‰) on the profile and correlated with major lowstand (around the end of Arenig) on the local sea-level reconstruction and also on those from the Baltic region and central Australia, thus suggesting that the St. George Group Unconformity might have likely had an eustatic component that contributed to the development–enhancement of the paleomargin. Other similar δ13Ccarb shifts have been recorded on the St. George profile, but it is hard to evaluate their global extension due to the low resolution of the documented global Lower Ordovician (Tremadoc – middle Arenig) δ13Ccarb profile.

scholarly journals Dynamic Downscaling of the Impact of Climate Change on the Ocean Circulation in the Galápagos Archipelago

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanyun Liu ◽  
Lian Xie ◽  
John M. Morrison ◽  
Daniel Kamykowski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Equatorial Undercurrent ◽  
Galapagos Archipelago ◽  
The Impact

The regional impact of global climate change on the ocean circulation around the Galápagos Archipelago is studied using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) configured for a four-level nested domain system. The modeling system is validated and calibrated using daily atmospheric forcing derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1951 to 2007. The potential impact of future anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the Galápagos region is examined using the calibrated HYCOM with forcing derived from the IPCC-AR4 climate model. Results show that although the oceanic variability in the entire Galápagos region is significantly affected by global climate change, the degree of such effects is inhomogeneous across the region. The upwelling region to the west of the Isabella Island shows relatively slower warming trends compared to the eastern Galápagos region. Diagnostic analysis suggests that the variability in the western Galápagos upwelling region is affected mainly by equatorial undercurrent (EUC) and Panama currents, while the central/east Galápagos is predominantly affected by both Peru and EUC currents. The inhomogeneous responses in different regions of the Galápagos Archipelago to future AGW can be explained by the incoherent changes of the various current systems in the Galápagos region as a result of global climate change.

scholarly journals Effects of Ocean Biology on the Penetrative Radiation in a Coupled Climate Model

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (16) ◽  
pp. 3973-3987 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Wetzel ◽  
Ernst Maier-Reimer ◽  
Michael Botzet ◽  
Johann Jungclaus ◽  
Noel Keenlyside ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Marine Biology ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Coupled Climate Model

Abstract The influence of phytoplankton on the seasonal cycle and the mean global climate is investigated in a fully coupled climate model. The control experiment uses a fixed attenuation depth for shortwave radiation, while the attenuation depth in the experiment with biology is derived from phytoplankton concentrations simulated with a marine biogeochemical model coupled online to the ocean model. Some of the changes in the upper ocean are similar to the results from previous studies that did not use interactive atmospheres, for example, amplification of the seasonal cycle; warming in upwelling regions, such as the equatorial Pacific and the Arabian Sea; and reduction in sea ice cover in the high latitudes. In addition, positive feedbacks within the climate system cause a global shift of the seasonal cycle. The onset of spring is about 2 weeks earlier, which results in a more realistic representation of the seasons. Feedback mechanisms, such as increased wind stress and changes in the shortwave radiation, lead to significant warming in the midlatitudes in summer and to seasonal modifications of the overall warming in the equatorial Pacific. Temperature changes also occur over land where they are sometimes even larger than over the ocean. In the equatorial Pacific, the strength of interannual SST variability is reduced by about 10%–15% and phase locking to the annual cycle is improved. The ENSO spectral peak is broader than in the experiment without biology and the dominant ENSO period is increased to around 5 yr. Also the skewness of ENSO variability is slightly improved. All of these changes lead to the conclusion that the influence of marine biology on the radiative budget of the upper ocean should be considered in detailed simulations of the earth’s climate.

Projected sea-level changes in the marginal seas near China based on dynamical downscaling

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-52
Author(s):  
Yi Jin ◽  
Xuebin Zhang ◽  
John A. Church ◽  
Xianwen Bao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Open Boundary ◽  
Open Boundary Conditions ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Marginal Seas ◽  
The Pacific

AbstractProjections of future sea-level changes are usually based on global climate models (GCMs). However, the changes in shallow coastal regions, like the marginal seas near China, cannot be fully resolved in GCMs. To improve regional sea-level simulations, a high-resolution (~8 km) regional ocean model is set up for the marginal seas near China for both the historical (1994-2015) and future (2079-2100) periods under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The historical ocean simulations are evaluated at different spatiotemporal scales, and the model is then integrated for the future period, driven by projected monthly climatological climate change signals from 8 GCMs individually via both surface and open boundary conditions. The downscaled ocean changes derived by comparing historical and future experiments reveal greater spatial details than those from GCMs, e.g., a low dynamic sea level (DSL) centre of -0.15 m in the middle of the South China Sea (SCS). As a novel test, the downscaled results driven by the ensemble mean forcings are almost identical with the ensemble average results from individually downscaled cases. Forcing of the DSL change and increased cyclonic circulation in the SCS are dominated by the climate change signals from the Pacific, while the DSL change in the East China marginal seas is caused by both local atmosphere forcing and signals from the Pacific. The method of downscaling developed in this study is a useful modelling protocol for adaptation and mitigation planning for future oceanic climate changes.

scholarly journals Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in the EC-Earth global climate model

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1383-1402 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Davini ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg ◽  
Susanna Corti ◽  
Hannah M. Christensen ◽  
Stephan Juricke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stochastic Physics

Abstract. The Climate SPHINX (Stochastic Physics HIgh resolutioN eXperiments) project is a comprehensive set of ensemble simulations aimed at evaluating the sensitivity of present and future climate to model resolution and stochastic parameterisation. The EC-Earth Earth system model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in a large ensemble of 30-year climate integrations at five different atmospheric horizontal resolutions (from 125 up to 16 km). The project includes more than 120 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979–2008) and a climate change projection (2039–2068), together with coupled transient runs (1850–2100). A total of 20.4 million core hours have been used, made available from a single year grant from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe), and close to 1.5 PB of output data have been produced on SuperMUC IBM Petascale System at the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ) in Garching, Germany. About 140 TB of post-processed data are stored on the CINECA supercomputing centre archives and are freely accessible to the community thanks to an EUDAT data pilot project. This paper presents the technical and scientific set-up of the experiments, including the details on the forcing used for the simulations performed, defining the SPHINX v1.0 protocol. In addition, an overview of preliminary results is given. An improvement in the simulation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking following resolution increase is observed. It is also shown that including stochastic parameterisation in the low-resolution runs helps to improve some aspects of the tropical climate – specifically the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the tropical rainfall variability. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small-scale processes on the large-scale climate variability either explicitly (with high-resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low-resolution simulations).

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