Dwindling impact of large volcanic eruptions on global glacier changes in the Anthropocene

Large Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Large volcanic eruptions impact climate through the injection of ash and sulfur gas into the atmosphere. While the ash particles fall out rapidly, the gas is converted to sulfate aerosols, which reflect solar radiation in the stratosphere and cause a cooling of the global mean surface temperature. Earlier studies suggested that major volcanic eruptions resulted in positive mass balances and advances of glaciers. Here we perform a multivariate analysis to decompose global glacier mass changes from 1961 to 2005 into components associated with anthropogenic influences, volcanic and solar activity, and El Ni&#241;o Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We find that the global glacier mass loss was mainly driven by the anthropogenic forcing, interrupted by a few years of intermittent mass gains following large volcanic eruptions. The relative impact of volcanic eruptions is dwindling due to strongly increasing greenhouse gas concentrations since the mid of the 20th century. Furthermore, our study indicates that solar activity and ENSO have limited impacts on climate conditions at glacier locations and that volcanic eruptions alone can hardly explain decadal periods of glacier advances documented since the 16th century.

The Life and Death of the Hiatus Consistently Explained

10.20944/preprints201805.0372.v1 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Kristoffer Rypdal

Keyword(s):

Long Memory ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Thermal Inertia ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Delayed Response ◽

Small Contribution ◽

Life And Death ◽

Model Driven ◽

The main features of the instrumental global mean surface temperature (GMST) are reasonably well described by a simple linear response model driven by anthropogenic, volcanic and solar forcing. This model acts as a linear long-memory filter of the forcing signal. The physical interpretation of this filtering is the delayed response due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. This description is considerably more accurate if El Ni\~{n}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are regarded as additional forcing of the global temperature and hence subject to the same filtering as the other forcing components. By considering these as predictors in a linear regression scheme, more than 92\% of the variance in the instrumental GMST over the period 1870-2017 is explained by this model, and in particular all features of the 1998 -- 2015 hiatus, including its death. While the more prominent pauses during 1870 -- 1915 and 1940 -- 1970 can be attributed to clustering in time of strong volcanic eruptions, the recent hiatus is an unremarkable phenomenon that is attributed to ENSO and a small contribution from solar activity.

Climate variability following large volcanic eruption: CMIP6 model investigation

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3686 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Elizaveta Malinina ◽

Nathan Gillett

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Volcanic Eruption ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

Evaluation Tool ◽

Global Mean Temperature ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Krakatoa Eruption ◽

Volcanic eruptions are an important driver of climate variability. Multiple literature sources have shown that after large explosive eruptions there is a decrease in global mean temperature, caused by an increased amount of stratospheric aerosols which influence the global radiative budget. In this study, we investigate the changes in several climate variables after a volcanic eruption. Using ESMValTool (Earth System Model Evaluation Tool) on an ensemble of historical simulations from CMIP6, such variables as global mean surface temperature (GMST), Arctic sea ice area and Nino 3.4 index were analyzed following the 1883 Krakatoa eruption. While there is a definite decrease in the multi-model mean GMST after the eruption, other indices do not show as prominent change. The reasons for this behavior are under investigation.&#160;

Identifying Signatures of Natural Climate Variability in Time Series of Global-Mean Surface Temperature: Methodology and Insights

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2009jcli3089.1 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 22 (22) ◽

pp. 6120-6141 ◽

Cited By ~ 111

Author(s):

David W. J. Thompson ◽

John M. Wallace ◽

Phil D. Jones ◽

John J. Kennedy

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

High Latitude ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Natural Variability ◽

Natural Climate Variability ◽

Natural Climate ◽

Abstract Global-mean surface temperature is affected by both natural variability and anthropogenic forcing. This study is concerned with identifying and removing from global-mean temperatures the signatures of natural climate variability over the period January 1900–March 2009. A series of simple, physically based methodologies are developed and applied to isolate the climate impacts of three known sources of natural variability: the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), variations in the advection of marine air masses over the high-latitude continents during winter, and aerosols injected into the stratosphere by explosive volcanic eruptions. After the effects of ENSO and high-latitude temperature advection are removed from the global-mean temperature record, the signatures of volcanic eruptions and changes in instrumentation become more clearly apparent. After the volcanic eruptions are subsequently filtered from the record, the residual time series reveals a nearly monotonic global warming pattern since ∼1950. The results also reveal coupling between the land and ocean areas on the interannual time scale that transcends the effects of ENSO and volcanic eruptions. Globally averaged land and ocean temperatures are most strongly correlated when ocean leads land by ∼2–3 months. These coupled fluctuations exhibit a complicated spatial signature with largest-amplitude sea surface temperature perturbations over the Atlantic Ocean.

Dwindling Relevance of Large Volcanic Eruptions for Global Glacier Changes in the Anthropocene

Geophysical Research Letters ◽

10.1029/2021gl092964 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Michael Zemp ◽

Ben Marzeion

Keyword(s):

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Glacier Changes ◽

Large Volcanic Eruptions

A studying of solar-ENSO correlation with southern Brazil tree-ring index (1955–1994)

Climate of the Past Discussions ◽

10.5194/cpd-1-215-2005 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 1 (3) ◽

pp. 215-230 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

N. R. Rigozo ◽

D. J. R. Nordemann ◽

M. Pereira de Souza Echer ◽

E. Echer ◽

A. Prestes

Keyword(s):

Solar Activity ◽

Multiple Regression ◽

Tree Ring ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Band Pass Filter ◽

Southern Brazil ◽

Pass Filter ◽

Temperature Anomalies ◽

Band Pass

Abstract. Solar activity, volcanic aerosol, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and global temperature anomalies effects on Southern Brazil tree growth rings are presented through multiple linear analysis. Linear correlations were made on annual, 10 year running averages and band pass filter. For annual averages, the correlation coefficients were low, and the 10 years running average correlations the coefficient correlations were much higher. The multiple regression of 2 to 5 year band pass filter indicates that 60% of the variance in tree ring index was explained by volcanic eruptions, Southern Oscillation Index and temperature anomalies. The multiple regression of 10 year running averages indicates that 84% of the variance in tree ring index was explained by solar activity and another time series. These results indicate that the effects of solar activity, volcanic eruptions, ENSO and temperature anomalies on tree rings are better seen on long timescales than volcanic eruption, ENSO and temperature anomaly.

Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature

Environmental Research Letters ◽

10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb5 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 12 (5) ◽

pp. 054010 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Paul-Arthur Monerie ◽

Marie-Pierre Moine ◽

Laurent Terray ◽

Sophie Valcke

Keyword(s):

Surface Temperature ◽

21St Century ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Early 21St Century ◽

The Impact ◽

El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability, teleconnection changes and responses to large volcanic eruptions since AD 1000

International Journal of Climatology ◽

10.1002/joc.5983 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 39 (5) ◽

pp. 2711-2724 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Christoph Dätwyler ◽

Nerilie J. Abram ◽

Martin Grosjean ◽

Eugene R. Wahl ◽

Raphael Neukom

Keyword(s):

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽

El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽

Large Volcanic Eruptions

Current rapid global temperature rise linked to falling SO2 emissions

10.5194/esd-2018-83 ◽

2018 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Nick E. B. Cowern

Keyword(s):

Heat Exchange ◽

Solar Irradiance ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Global Temperature ◽

Climate Forcing ◽

Accurate Estimation ◽

Tropospheric Aerosol ◽

Ocean Atmosphere ◽

Abstract. It is widely held that global temperature variations on time scales of a decade or less are primarily caused by internal climate variability, with smaller contributions from changes in external climate forcing such as solar irradiance. This paper shows that observed variations in global mean surface temperature, TGS, and ocean heat content (OHC) during the last 1–2 decades imply major changes in climate forcing during this period. In a first step, two independent methods are used to evaluate global temperature corrected for ocean–atmosphere heat exchange. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) corrected TGS (written as TGS) is shown to agree closely with a novel temperature metric θ that combines uncorrected TGS with scaled OHC. This agreement rules out a substantial 21st-century contribution to TGS from ocean-atmosphere heat exchange. In contrast to TGS, the time series TGS (t) provides a clear fingerprint of transient global cooling associated with major volcanic eruptions, enabling a more accurate empirical estimate of the climate response of the global mean surface. This allows more accurate estimation of the net climate forcing by stratospheric aerosols and solar irradiance, which is then subtracted from TGS (t) to determine the underlying signal of anthropogenic global warming. Key features of this signal are a slowdown from the late 1990s to 2011 – corresponding to the well known climate hiatus – and a subsequent sharp upturn indicating a steep increase in anthropogenic climate forcing. It is argued that the only plausible cause for this increase is a large fractional decrease in tropospheric aerosol cooling. This attribution is supported by satellite-based observations of a > 50 % decrease in SO2 emissions from large sources during the last six years. It suggests that current clean-air policies and replacement of coal by natural gas are driving a significant human made climatic event, 2–4 times faster than greenhouse driven warming alone. If confirmed, this implies a considerably shortened timescale to meet the IPCC 1.5 °C objective, with major implications for near-term carbon emission policies.

Simulation and Projection of Global Mean Surface Temperature Using the Empirical Model of Global Climate and Comparison to CMIP6 GCMs

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6491 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Laura McBride ◽

Austin Hope ◽

Timothy Canty ◽

Walter Tribett ◽

Brian Bennett ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Greenhouse Gases ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Empirical Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Climate Record ◽

Global Mean ◽

Human Component

The Empirical Model of Global Climate (EM-GC) (Canty et al., ACP, 2013, McBride et al., ESDD, 2020) is a multiple linear regression, energy balance model that accounts for the natural influences on global mean surface temperature due to ENSO, the 11-year solar cycle, major volcanic eruptions, as well as the anthropogenic influence of greenhouse gases and aerosols and the efficiency of ocean heat uptake. First, we will analyze the human contribution of global warming from 1975-2014 based on the climate record, also known as the attributable anthropogenic warming rate (AAWR). We will compare the values of AAWR found using the EM-GC with values of AAWR from the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. Preliminary analysis indicates that over the past three decades, the human component of global warming inferred from the CMIP6 GCMs is larger than the human component of warming from the climate record. Second, we will compare values of equilibrium climate sensitivity inferred from the historical climate record to those determined from CMIP6 GCMs using the Gregory et al., GRL, 2004 method. Third, we will use the future abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols provided by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to project future global mean surface temperature change. We will compare the projections of future temperature anomalies from CMIP6 GCMs to those determined by the EM-GC. We will conclude by assessing the probability of the CMIP6 and EM-GC projections of achieving the Paris Agreement target (1.5&#176;C) and upper limit (2.0&#176;C) for several of the SSP scenarios.

Last Millennium Climate and Its Variability in CCSM4

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-11-00326.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 26 (4) ◽

pp. 1085-1111 ◽

Cited By ~ 147

Author(s):

Laura Landrum ◽

Bette L. Otto-Bliesner ◽

Eugene R. Wahl ◽

Andrew Conley ◽

Peter J. Lawrence ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽

Ice Age ◽

Last Millennium ◽

Asian Monsoon Region ◽

Climate System Model ◽

Proxy Reconstructions ◽

Large Volcanic Eruptions

Abstract An overview of a simulation referred to as the “Last Millennium” (LM) simulation of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), is presented. The CCSM4 LM simulation reproduces many large-scale climate patterns suggested by historical and proxy-data records, with Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) surface temperatures cooling to the early 1800s Common Era by ~0.5°C (NH) and ~0.3°C (SH), followed by warming to the present. High latitudes of both hemispheres show polar amplification of the cooling from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the Little Ice Age (LIA) associated with sea ice increases. The LM simulation does not reproduce La Niña–like cooling in the eastern Pacific Ocean during the MCA relative to the LIA, as has been suggested by proxy reconstructions. Still, dry medieval conditions over the southwestern and central United States are simulated in agreement with proxy indicators for these regions. Strong global cooling is associated with large volcanic eruptions, with indications of multidecadal colder climate in response to larger eruptions. The CCSM4’s response to large volcanic eruptions captures some reconstructed patterns of temperature changes over Europe and North America, but not those of precipitation in the Asian monsoon region. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) has higher variance at centennial periods in the LM simulation compared to the 1850 nontransient run, suggesting a long-term Atlantic Ocean response to natural forcings. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability modes show little or no change. CCSM4 does not simulate a persistent positive NAO or a prolonged period of negative PDO during the MCA, as suggested by some proxy reconstructions.