Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature

Abstract Global-mean surface temperature is affected by both natural variability and anthropogenic forcing. This study is concerned with identifying and removing from global-mean temperatures the signatures of natural climate variability over the period January 1900–March 2009. A series of simple, physically based methodologies are developed and applied to isolate the climate impacts of three known sources of natural variability: the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), variations in the advection of marine air masses over the high-latitude continents during winter, and aerosols injected into the stratosphere by explosive volcanic eruptions. After the effects of ENSO and high-latitude temperature advection are removed from the global-mean temperature record, the signatures of volcanic eruptions and changes in instrumentation become more clearly apparent. After the volcanic eruptions are subsequently filtered from the record, the residual time series reveals a nearly monotonic global warming pattern since ∼1950. The results also reveal coupling between the land and ocean areas on the interannual time scale that transcends the effects of ENSO and volcanic eruptions. Globally averaged land and ocean temperatures are most strongly correlated when ocean leads land by ∼2–3 months. These coupled fluctuations exhibit a complicated spatial signature with largest-amplitude sea surface temperature perturbations over the Atlantic Ocean.

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Precipitation and Temperature Variations on the Interannual Time Scale: Assessing the Impact of ENSO and Volcanic Eruptions

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2010jcli3727.1 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 24 (9) ◽

pp. 2258-2270 ◽

Cited By ~ 53

Author(s):

Guojun Gu ◽

Robert F. Adler

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Water Vapor ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Time Lags ◽

Tropospheric Temperature ◽

Precipitation Temperature ◽

The Impact ◽

Global Mean ◽

Temperature Surface

Abstract The effects of ENSO and two large tropical volcanic eruptions (El Chichón, March 1982; Mt. Pinatubo, June 1991) are examined for the period of 1979–2008 using various satellite- and station-based observations of precipitation, temperature (surface and atmospheric), and tropospheric water vapor content. By focusing on the responses in the time series of tropical and global means over land, ocean, and land and ocean combined, the authors intend to provide an observational comparison of how these two phenomena, represented by Niño-3.4 and the tropical mean stratospheric aerosol optical thickness (τ), respectively, influence precipitation, temperature, and water vapor variations. As discovered in past studies, strong same-sign ENSO signals appear in tropical and global mean temperature (surface and tropospheric) over both land and ocean. However, ENSO only has very weak impact on tropical and global mean (land + ocean) precipitation, though intense anomalies are readily seen in the time series of precipitation averaged over either land or ocean. In contrast, the two volcanoes decreased not only tropical and global mean surface and tropospheric temperature but also tropical and global mean (land + ocean) precipitation. The differences between the responses to ENSO and volcanic eruptions are thus further examined by means of lag-correlation analyses. The ENSO-related peak responses in oceanic precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) have the same time lags with Niño-3.4, 2 (4) months for the tropical (global) means. Tropical and global mean tropospheric water vapor over ocean (and land) generally follows surface temperature. However, land precipitation responds to ENSO much faster than temperature, suggesting a certain time needed for surface energy adjustment there following ENSO-related circulation and precipitation anomalies. Weak ENSO signals in the tropical and global mean mid- to lower-tropospheric atmospheric (dry) static instability are further discovered, which tend to be consistent with weak ENSO responses in the tropical and global mean (land + ocean) precipitation. For volcanic eruptions, tropical and global mean precipitation over either ocean or land responds faster than temperature (surface and atmospheric) and tropospheric water vapor averaged over the same areas, suggesting that precipitation tends to be more sensitive to volcanic-related solar forcing. The volcanic-related precipitation variations are further shown to be related to the changes in the mid- to lower-tropospheric atmospheric (dry) instability.

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Estimating the Impact of Artificially Injected Stratospheric Aerosols on the Global Mean Surface Temperature in the 21th Century

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli6040085 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 6 (4) ◽

pp. 85 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Sergei Soldatenko

Keyword(s):

Surface Temperature ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Global Temperature ◽

Balance Model ◽

Solar Radiation Management ◽

Aerosol Layer ◽

Aerosol Emission ◽

Global Mean Surface Temperature ◽

The Impact ◽

Global Mean

In this paper, we apply the optimal control theory to obtain the analytic solutions of the two-component globally averaged energy balance model in order to estimate the influence of solar radiation management (SRM) operations on the global mean surface temperature in the 21st century. It is assumed that SRM is executed via injection of sulfur aerosols into the stratosphere to limit the global temperature increase in the year 2100 by 1.5 °C and keeping global temperature over the specified period (2020–2100) within 2 °C as required by the Paris climate agreement. The radiative forcing produced by the rise in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases is defined by the Representative Concentration Pathways and the 1pctCO2 (1% per year CO2 increase) scenario. The goal of SRM is formulated in terms of extremal problem, which entails finding a control function (the albedo of aerosol layer) that minimizes the amount of aerosols injected into the upper atmosphere to satisfy the Paris climate target. For each climate change scenario, the optimal albedo of the aerosol layer and the corresponding global mean surface temperature changes were obtained. In addition, the aerosol emission rates required to create an aerosol cloud with optimal optical properties were calculated.

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Simulation and Projection of Global Mean Surface Temperature Using the Empirical Model of Global Climate and Comparison to CMIP6 GCMs

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6491 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Laura McBride ◽

Austin Hope ◽

Timothy Canty ◽

Walter Tribett ◽

Brian Bennett ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Greenhouse Gases ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Empirical Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Climate Record ◽

Global Mean Surface Temperature ◽

Global Mean ◽

Human Component

<p>The Empirical Model of Global Climate (EM-GC) (Canty et al., ACP, 2013, McBride et al., ESDD, 2020) is a multiple linear regression, energy balance model that accounts for the natural influences on global mean surface temperature due to ENSO, the 11-year solar cycle, major volcanic eruptions, as well as the anthropogenic influence of greenhouse gases and aerosols and the efficiency of ocean heat uptake. First, we will analyze the human contribution of global warming from 1975-2014 based on the climate record, also known as the attributable anthropogenic warming rate (AAWR). We will compare the values of AAWR found using the EM-GC with values of AAWR from the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. Preliminary analysis indicates that over the past three decades, the human component of global warming inferred from the CMIP6 GCMs is larger than the human component of warming from the climate record. Second, we will compare values of equilibrium climate sensitivity inferred from the historical climate record to those determined from CMIP6 GCMs using the Gregory et al., GRL, 2004 method. Third, we will use the future abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols provided by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to project future global mean surface temperature change. We will compare the projections of future temperature anomalies from CMIP6 GCMs to those determined by the EM-GC. We will conclude by assessing the probability of the CMIP6 and EM-GC projections of achieving the Paris Agreement target (1.5&#176;C) and upper limit (2.0&#176;C) for several of the SSP scenarios.</p>

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Model for estimating the transient response of the global mean surface temperature to changes in the concentrations of atmospheric aerosols and radiatively-active gases

Оптика атмосферы и океана ◽

10.15372/aoo20190409 ◽

2019 ◽

Keyword(s):

Surface Temperature ◽

Transient Response ◽

Atmospheric Aerosols ◽

Global Mean Surface Temperature ◽

Global Mean

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Biblical Criticism

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Literature ◽

10.1093/acrefore/9780190201098.013.966 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Richard Briggs

Keyword(s):

21St Century ◽

Full Range ◽

Biblical Criticism ◽

Early 21St Century ◽

Authorial Intention ◽

The Bible ◽

Interpretive Method ◽

Interpretive Practices ◽

History Of Biblical Interpretation ◽

The Impact

The Bible as a text can be read with or without reference to its compilation as a theologically constructed collection of sacred Jewish and Christian books. When read without such framing concerns, it may be approached with the full range of literary and theoretical interpretive tools and read for whatever purpose readers value or wish to explore. Less straightforwardly, in the former case where framing concerns come into play, the Bible is both like and unlike any other book in the way that its very nature as a “canon” of scripture is related to particular theological and religious convictions. Such convictions are then in turn interested in configuring the kinds of readings pursued in certain ways. Biblical criticism has undergone many transformations over the centuries, sometimes allowing such theological convictions or practices to shape the nature of its criticism, and at other times—especially in the modern period—tending to relegate their significance in favor of concerns with interpretive method, and in particular questions about authorial intention, original context, and interest in matters of history (either in the world behind the text, or in the stages of development of the text itself). From the middle of the 20th century onwards the interpretive interests of biblical critics have focused more on certain literary characteristics of biblical narratives and poetry, and also a greater theological willingness to engage the imaginative vision of biblical texts. This has resulted in a move toward a theological form of criticism that might better be characterized as imaginative and invites explicit negotiation of readers’ identities and commitments. A sense of the longer, premodern history of biblical interpretation suggests that some of these late 20th- and early 21st-century emphases do themselves have roots in the interpretive practices of earlier times, but that the Reformation (and subsequent developments in modern thinking) effectively closed down certain interpretive options in the name of better ordering readers’ interpretive commitments. Though not without real gains, this narrowing of interpretive interests has resulted in much of the practice of academic biblical criticism being beholden to modernist impulses. Shifts toward postmodern emphases have been less common on the whole, but the overall picture of biblical criticism has indeed changed in the 21st century. This may be more owing to the impact of a renewed appetite for theologically imaginative readings among Christian readers, and also of the refreshed recognition of Jewish traditions of interpretation that pose challenging framing questions to other understandings.

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Towards Reliable Probabilistic Time-Series Projections of Global Mean Surface Temperature

10.21203/rs.3.rs-1103739/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Philip G. Sansom ◽

Donald Cummins ◽

Stefan Siegert ◽

David B Stephenson

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Global Warming ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Climate Model ◽

Future Projections ◽

Perfect Model ◽

Global Mean Surface Temperature ◽

Time Series Approach ◽

Energy Balance Models ◽

Global Mean

Abstract Quantifying the risk of global warming exceeding critical targets such as 2.0 ◦ C requires reliable projections of uncertainty as well as best estimates of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST). However, uncertainty bands on GMST projections are often calculated heuristically and have several potential shortcomings. In particular, the uncertainty bands shown in IPCC plume projections of GMST are based on the distribution of GMST anomalies from climate model runs and so are strongly determined by model characteristics with little influence from observations of the real-world. Physically motivated time-series approaches are proposed based on fitting energy balance models (EBMs) to climate model outputs and observations in order to constrain future projections. It is shown that EBMs fitted to one forcing scenario will not produce reliable projections when different forcing scenarios are applied. The errors in the EBM projections can be interpreted as arising due to a discrepancy in the effective forcing felt by the model. A simple time-series approach to correcting the projections is proposed based on learning the evolution of the forcing discrepancy so that it can be projected into the future. This approach gives reliable projections of GMST when tested in a perfect model setting. When applied to observations this leads to projected warming of 2.2 ◦ C (1.7 ◦ C to 2.9 ◦ C) in 2100 compared to pre-industrial conditions, 0.4 ◦ C lower than a comparable IPCC anomaly estimate. The probability of staying below the critical 2.0 ◦ C warming target in 2100 more than doubles to 0.28 compared to only 0.11 from a comparably IPCC estimate.

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Estimates of climate system properties incorporating recent climate change

Advances in Statistical Climatology Meteorology and Oceanography ◽

10.5194/ascmo-4-19-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 4 (1/2) ◽

pp. 19-36 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Alex G. Libardoni ◽

Chris E. Forest ◽

Andrei P. Sokolov ◽

Erwan Monier

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

21St Century ◽

Climate Sensitivity ◽

Temperature Rise ◽

Heat Content ◽

Climate System ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Aerosol Forcing ◽

Global Mean

Abstract. Historical time series of surface temperature and ocean heat content changes are commonly used metrics to diagnose climate change and estimate properties of the climate system. We show that recent trends, namely the slowing of surface temperature rise at the beginning of the 21st century and the acceleration of heat stored in the deep ocean, have a substantial impact on these estimates. Using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Earth System Model (MESM), we vary three model parameters that influence the behavior of the climate system: effective climate sensitivity (ECS), the effective ocean diffusivity of heat anomalies by all mixing processes (Kv), and the net anthropogenic aerosol forcing scaling factor. Each model run is compared to observed changes in decadal mean surface temperature anomalies and the trend in global mean ocean heat content change to derive a joint probability distribution function for the model parameters. Marginal distributions for individual parameters are found by integrating over the other two parameters. To investigate how the inclusion of recent temperature changes affects our estimates, we systematically include additional data by choosing periods that end in 1990, 2000, and 2010. We find that estimates of ECS increase in response to rising global surface temperatures when data beyond 1990 are included, but due to the slowdown of surface temperature rise in the early 21st century, estimates when using data up to 2000 are greater than when data up to 2010 are used. We also show that estimates of Kv increase in response to the acceleration of heat stored in the ocean as data beyond 1990 are included. Further, we highlight how including spatial patterns of surface temperature change modifies the estimates. We show that including latitudinal structure in the climate change signal impacts properties with spatial dependence, namely the aerosol forcing pattern, more than properties defined for the global mean, climate sensitivity, and ocean diffusivity.

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Climate variability following large volcanic eruption: CMIP6 model investigation

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3686 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Elizaveta Malinina ◽

Nathan Gillett

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Volcanic Eruption ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

Evaluation Tool ◽

Global Mean Temperature ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Global Mean Surface Temperature ◽

Krakatoa Eruption ◽

Global Mean

<p>Volcanic eruptions are an important driver of climate variability. Multiple literature sources have shown that after large explosive eruptions there is a decrease in global mean temperature, caused by an increased amount of stratospheric aerosols which influence the global radiative budget. In this study, we investigate the changes in several climate variables after a volcanic eruption. Using ESMValTool (Earth System Model Evaluation Tool) on an ensemble of historical simulations from CMIP6, such variables as global mean surface temperature (GMST), Arctic sea ice area and Nino 3.4 index were analyzed following the 1883 Krakatoa eruption. While there is a definite decrease in the multi-model mean GMST after the eruption, other indices do not show as prominent change. The reasons for this behavior are under investigation.&#160;</p>

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