Modelling floating debris’ beaching and drift nearshore -a case in Corsica & Sardinia, and the parametrization in the Litter TEP

Author(s):  
Fatimatou Coulibaly ◽  
Anne Vallette ◽  
Manuel Arias ◽  
François Galgani ◽  
Sylvain Coudray

<p>The Litter -TEP (Thematic Exploitation Platform), which was developed by ARGANS Ltd, with a grant of CMEMS, aimed at forecasting litter introduction by rivers and marine drift on the European North-Western Shelf so as to help local coastal communities i. schedule beach cleansing and ii.  assess the potential origin of materials collected. It needed a litter beaching model, in addition to a drift model, for that. ARGANS benefited from a grant of IFREMER through the European interregional project MARITTIMO-SICOMAR plus, to study litter beaching processes on the Corsican shoreline, owing to the extensive survey performed in 2016-2017 by IFREMER and the localization of hot spots, i.e. locations with more than 10 litter pieces on a distance of 2-to-30m alongshore. After a gross analysis of data by CMEMS for winds, currents and waves, 3 areas were selected among the 6 main litter accumulation areas, i.e. La Maddalena, Capo di Feno, the Ajaccio Gulf, the Gulf of Propriano, Bastia shores and the Agriate Desert, to try to understand the reason for the location of the litter hot spots, but focusing exclusively on i. transport by waves and ii.a swash on the shore or ii.b picked up by longshore currents along the beach then swashed (ii.a) —without knowing the litter sources, as if the sources were disposed uniformly offshore linearly along the coast.</p><p>To get the transport component, the incoming waves were simulated with the spectral model SWAN, at a 25 m resolution, using inputs from WAVEWATCH III; to get the beaching per se, i.e. the surf zone dynamics that would deposit litter on the shore, we used a SWASH model that was nested in the former at a spatial resolution of 1 to 10 m. SWASH was originally discarded in favor of the XBeach model, a short-wave averaged and wave-group resolving model that we use for civil engineering calculation, because a computing-efficient model and its ore approximations fit the purpose (motions at the shore break are dominated by long wave). Yet, despite the possibility to action the ‘surf-beat’ mode of XBeach, allowing resolving the short wave variations on the wave group scale and getting the wave-driven currents (longshore current, rip currents), long(infragravity) waves, and runup and rundown of long waves (swash), we switched back to SWASH, as it does not consider a depth-averaged flow and seemed to resolve better the incident-band (short wave) runup on intermediate dissipation shores.</p><p>In the three AOIs, 67 hotspots were identified during the ground survey, and 90 hotspots were forecasted. Out of the 67s, 59 were forecasted: 42 at the right location and 17 with slight error which is probably due to the lack of proper VHR bathy-topography and sedimentological maps to perform the simulations. 8 surveyed hotspots were not foreseen, and 31 forecasted hotspots were not identified on ground. As such, the probability of detection was 88% and the probability of false alarms 32%. Better rates are expected using the new LITTO3D lidar surveys of Corsican nearshores, and a priori knowledge of litter sources.</p>

Author(s):  
Javier L. Lara ◽  
Andrea Ruju ◽  
Inigo J. Losada

This paper presents the numerical modelling of the cross shore propagation of infragravity waves induced by a transient focused short wave group over a sloping bottom. A dataset obtained through new laboratory experiments in the wave flume of the University of Cantabria is used to validate the Reynolds averaged Navier–Stokes type model IH-2VOF. A new boundary condition based on the wave maker movement used in the experiments is implemented in the model. Shoaling and breaking of short waves as well as the enhancement of long waves and the energy transfer to low-frequency motion are well addressed by the model, proving the high accuracy in the reproduction of surf zone hydrodynamics. Under the steep slope regime, a long wave trough is radiated offshore from the breakpoint. Numerical simulations conducted for different bottom slopes and short wave steepness suggest that this low-frequency breakpoint generated wave is controlled by both the bed slope parameter and the Iribarren number. Moreover, the numerical model is used to investigate the influence that a large flat bottom induces on the propagation pattern of long waves.


Oceanologia ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 291-308
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Dudkowska ◽  
Aleksandra Boruń ◽  
Jakub Malicki ◽  
Jan Schönhofer ◽  
Gabriela Gic-Grusza

Author(s):  
Evan S. Bentley ◽  
Richard L. Thompson ◽  
Barry R. Bowers ◽  
Justin G. Gibbs ◽  
Steven E. Nelson

AbstractPrevious work has considered tornado occurrence with respect to radar data, both WSR-88D and mobile research radars, and a few studies have examined techniques to potentially improve tornado warning performance. To date, though, there has been little work focusing on systematic, large-sample evaluation of National Weather Service (NWS) tornado warnings with respect to radar-observable quantities and the near-storm environment. In this work, three full years (2016–2018) of NWS tornado warnings across the contiguous United States were examined, in conjunction with supporting data in the few minutes preceding warning issuance, or tornado formation in the case of missed events. The investigation herein examines WSR-88D and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) mesoanalysis data associated with these tornado warnings with comparisons made to the current Warning Decision Training Division (WDTD) guidance.Combining low-level rotational velocity and the significant tornado parameter (STP), as used in prior work, shows promise as a means to estimate tornado warning performance, as well as relative changes in performance as criteria thresholds vary. For example, low-level rotational velocity peaking in excess of 30 kt (15 m s−1), in a near-storm environment which is not prohibitive for tornadoes (STP > 0), results in an increased probability of detection and reduced false alarms compared to observed NWS tornado warning metrics. Tornado warning false alarms can also be reduced through limiting warnings with weak (<30 kt), broad (>1nm) circulations in a poor (STP=0) environment, careful elimination of velocity data artifacts like sidelobe contamination, and through greater scrutiny of human-based tornado reports in otherwise questionable scenarios.


2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 1501-1511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold E. Brooks ◽  
James Correia

Abstract Tornado warnings are one of the flagship products of the National Weather Service. We update the time series of various metrics of performance in order to provide baselines over the 1986–2016 period for lead time, probability of detection, false alarm ratio, and warning duration. We have used metrics (mean lead time for tornadoes warned in advance, fraction of tornadoes warned in advance) that work in a consistent way across the official changes in policy for warning issuance, as well as across points in time when unofficial changes took place. The mean lead time for tornadoes warned in advance was relatively constant from 1986 to 2011, while the fraction of tornadoes warned in advance increased through about 2006, and the false alarm ratio slowly decreased. The largest changes in performance take place in 2012 when the default warning duration decreased, and there is an apparent increased emphasis on reducing false alarms. As a result, the lead time, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio all decrease in 2012. Our analysis is based, in large part, on signal detection theory, which separates the quality of the warning system from the threshold for issuing warnings. Threshold changes lead to trade-offs between false alarms and missed detections. Such changes provide further evidence for changes in what the warning system as a whole considers important, as well as highlighting the limitations of measuring performance by looking at metrics independently.


2017 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 187-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Federico ◽  
Marco Petracca ◽  
Giulia Panegrossi ◽  
Claudio Transerici ◽  
Stefano Dietrich

Abstract. This study investigates the impact of the assimilation of total lightning data on the precipitation forecast of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The impact of the lightning data assimilation, which uses water vapour substitution, is investigated at different forecast time ranges, namely 3, 6, 12, and 24 h, to determine how long and to what extent the assimilation affects the precipitation forecast of long lasting rainfall events (> 24 h). The methodology developed in a previous study is slightly modified here, and is applied to twenty case studies occurred over Italy by a mesoscale model run at convection-permitting horizontal resolution (4 km). The performance is quantified by dichotomous statistical scores computed using a dense raingauge network over Italy. Results show the important impact of the lightning assimilation on the precipitation forecast, especially for the 3 and 6 h forecast. The probability of detection (POD), for example, increases by 10 % for the 3 h forecast using the assimilation of lightning data compared to the simulation without lightning assimilation for all precipitation thresholds considered. The Equitable Threat Score (ETS) is also improved by the lightning assimilation, especially for thresholds below 40 mm day−1. Results show that the forecast time range is very important because the performance decreases steadily and substantially with the forecast time. The POD, for example, is improved by 1–2 % for the 24 h forecast using lightning data assimilation compared to 10 % of the 3 h forecast. The impact of the false alarms on the model performance is also evidenced by this study.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 2075-2091
Author(s):  
Elias de Korte ◽  
Bruno Castelle ◽  
Eric Tellier

Abstract. A Bayesian network (BN) approach is used to model and predict shore-break-related injuries and rip-current drowning incidents based on detailed environmental conditions (wave, tide, weather, beach morphology) on the high-energy Gironde coast, southwest France. Six years (2011–2017) of boreal summer (15 June–15 September) surf zone injuries (SZIs) were analysed, comprising 442 (fatal and non-fatal) drownings caused by rip currents and 715 injuries caused by shore-break waves. Environmental conditions at the time of the SZIs were used to train two separate Bayesian networks (BNs), one for rip-current drownings and the other one for shore-break wave injuries. Each BN included two so-called “hidden” exposure and hazard variables, which are not observed yet interact with several of the observed (environmental) variables, which in turn limit the number of BN edges. Both BNs were tested for varying complexity using K-fold cross-validation based on multiple performance metrics. Results show a poor to fair predictive ability of the models according to the different metrics. Shore-break-related injuries appear more predictable than rip-current drowning incidents using the selected predictors within a BN, as the shore-break BN systematically performed better than the rip-current BN. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed to address the influence of environmental data variables and their interactions on exposure, hazard and resulting life risk. Most of our findings are in line with earlier SZI and physical hazard-based work; that is, more SZIs are observed for warm sunny days with light winds; long-period waves, with specifically more shore-break-related injuries at high tide and for steep beach profiles; and more rip-current drownings near low tide with near-shore-normal wave incidence and strongly alongshore non-uniform surf zone morphology. The BNs also provided fresh insight, showing that rip-current drowning risk is approximately equally distributed between exposure (variance reduction Vr=14.4 %) and hazard (Vr=17.4 %), while exposure of water user to shore-break waves is much more important (Vr=23.5 %) than the hazard (Vr=10.9 %). Large surf is found to decrease beachgoer exposure to shore-break hazard, while this is not observed for rip currents. Rapid change in tide elevation during days with large tidal range was also found to result in more drowning incidents. We advocate that such BNs, providing a better understanding of hazard, exposure and life risk, can be developed to improve public safety awareness campaigns, in parallel with the development of more skilful risk predictors to anticipate high-life-risk days.


Author(s):  
V. M. Artemiev ◽  
S. M. Kostromitsky ◽  
A. O. Naumov

To increase the efficiency of detecting moving objects in radiolocation, additional features are used, associated with the characteristics of trajectories. The authors assumed that trajectories are correlated, that allows extrapolation of the coordinate values taking into account their increments over the scanning period. The detection procedure consists of two stages. At the first, detection is carried out by the classical threshold method with a low threshold level, which provides a high probability of detection with high values of the probability of false alarms. At the same time uncertainty in the selection of object trajectory embedded in false trajectories arises. Due to the statistical independence of the coordinates of the false trajectories in comparison with the correlated coordinates of the object, the average duration of the first of them is less than the average duration of the second ones. This difference is used to solve the detection problem at the second stage based on the time-selection method. The obtained results allow estimation of the degree of gain in the probability of detection when using the proposed method.


1993 ◽  
Vol 252 ◽  
pp. 565-584 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor I. Shrira

We consider a classic boundary-value problem for deep-water gravity-capillary waves in a shear flow, composed of the Rayleigh equation and the standard linearized kinematic and dynamic inviscid boundary conditions at the free surface. We derived the exact solution for this problem in terms of an infinite series in powers of a certain parameter e, which characterizes the smallness of the deviation of the wave motion from the potential motion. For the existence and absolute convergence of the solution it is sufficient that e be less than unity.The truncated sums of the series provide approximate solutions with a priori prescribed accuracy. In particular, for the short-wave instability, which can be interpreted as the Miles critical-layer-type instability, the explicit approximate expressions for the growth rates are derived. The growth rates in a certain (very narrow) range of scales can exceed the Miles increments caused by the wind.The effect of thin boundary layers on the dispersion relation was also investigated using an asymptotic procedure based on the smallness of the product of the layer thickness and wavenumber. The criterion specifying when and with what accuracy the boundary-layer influence can be neglected has been derived.


1960 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 706-708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Herbert Friedman

The X-ray spectrum of a quiet Sun can be approximated by a 500,000° K Planckian distribution. In the absence of coronal excitation, as evidenced by the intensity of the Fe xiv green line, the X-ray spectrum has a short wave-length limit near 20 A. Coronal activity is accompanied by weak emissions down to wave-lengths as short as 6 A, which appear to be associated with coronal hot spots at temperatures of 2 x 106° K or higher.


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