scholarly journals Review of Surface Solar Radiation Projections in Bias-Corrected Euro-Cordex Regional Climate Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-13
Author(s):  
Blanka Bartók
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Seasonal Time Scale

AbstractRegional climate models (RCMs) are used in a wide range of climate applications as they can provide high resolution (up to 10 to 20 km or less) and multi-decadal simulations of the climate system describing climate feedback mechanisms acting at the regional scale. However due to different forcing data and physics parametrisations regional climate models might produce different results. This study aims to achieve a state-of-the-art knowledge of bias-corrected surface solar radiation projections coming from 11 EURO-CORDEX regional climate models. First a comparison against 63 GEBA observations is elaborated indicating a general overestimation of surface solar radiation (SSR) in the RCMs by 6.12 W/m2 (4.4%). Next changes in surface radiation between the period of 2031-2060 and 1971-2000 are presented on annual and seasonal time scale. The model projections indicate robust increase in SSR mainly in the western part of the Mediterranean region, while the northern part of the continent is characterised by decreases in SSR till the middle of this century. The study emphasis the need of an overall validation of different climate models before introducing them in impact studies in order to have an overview regarding the uncertainties.

Changes in extreme surface solar radiation in EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blanka Bartok
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
The Impact

<p>As solar energy share is showing a significant growth in the European electricity generation system, assessments regarding long-term variation of this variable related to climate change are becoming more and more relevant for this sector. Several studies analysed the impact of climate change on the solar energy sector in Europe (Jerez et al, 2015) finding light impact (-14%; +2%) in terms of mean surface solar radiation. The present study focuses on extreme values, namely on the distribution of low surface solar radiation (overcast situation) and high surface solar radiation (clear sky situation), since the frequencies of these situations have high impact on electricity generation.</p><p>The study considers 11 high-resolution (0.11 deg) bias-corrected climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble with 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled by 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs).</p><p>Changes in extreme surface solar radiation frequencies show different regional patterns over Europe.</p><p>The study also includes a case study determining the changes in solar power generation induced by the extreme situations.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>Jerez et al (2015): The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe, Nature Communications 6(1):10014, 10.1038/ncomms10014</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Gains and losses in surface solar radiation with dynamic aerosols in regional climate simulations for Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Jerez ◽  
Laura Palacios-Peña ◽  
Claudia Gutiérrez ◽  
Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero ◽  
Jose María López-Romero ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosol ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Gains And Losses

Abstract. The solar resource can be highly influenced by clouds and atmospheric aerosol, which has been named by the IPCC as the most uncertainty climate forcing agent. Nonetheless, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) hardly ever model dynamically atmospheric aerosol concentration and their interaction with radiation and clouds, in contrast to Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The objective of this work is to evince the role of the interactively modeling of aerosol concentrations and their interactions with radiation and clouds in Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations with a focus on summer mean surface downward solar radiation (RSDS) and over Europe. The results show that the response of RSDS is mainly led by the aerosol effects on cloudiness, which explain well the differences between the experiments in which aerosol-radiation and aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions are taken into account or not. Under present climate, a reduction about 5% in RSDS was found when aerosols are dynamically solved by the RCM, which is larger when only aerosol-radiation interactions are considered. However, for future projections, the inclusion of aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions results in the most negative RSDS change pattern (while with slight values), showing noticeable differences with the projections from either the other RCM experiments or from their driving GCM (which do hold some significant positive signals). Differences in RSDS among experiments are much more softer under clear-sky conditions.

Projected changes in surface solar radiation in CMIP5 global climate models and in EURO-CORDEX regional climate models for Europe

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 2665-2683 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blanka Bartók ◽  
Martin Wild ◽  
Doris Folini ◽  
Daniel Lüthi ◽  
Sven Kotlarski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Projected Changes

Impact of aerosols on the future Euro-Mediterranean climate: results from the CORDEX FPS-Aerosol

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Nabat ◽  
Samuel Somot ◽  
Lola Corre ◽  
Eleni Katragkou ◽  
Shuping Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Climate ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
The Future

<p>The Euro-Mediterranean region is subject to numerous and various aerosol loads, which interact with radiation, clouds and atmospheric dynamics, with ensuing impact on regional climate. However up to now, aerosol variations are hardly taken into account in most regional climate simulations, although anthropogenic emissions have been dramatically reduced in Europe since the 1980s. Moreover, inconsistencies between regional climate models (RCMs) and their driving global model (GCM) have recently been identified in terms of future radiation and temperature evolution, which could be related to the differences in aerosol forcing. <br>The present study aims at assessing the role of aerosols in the future evolution of the Euro-Mediterranean climate, using a specific multi-model protocol carried out in the Flagship Pilot Study "Aerosol" of the CORDEX program. This protocol relies on three simulations for each RCM: a historical run (1971-2000) and two future RCP8.5 simulations (2021-2050), a first one with evolving aerosols, and a second one with the same aerosols as in the historical period. Six modeling groups have taken part in this protocol, providing nine triplets of simulations. The analysis of these simulations will be presented here. First results show that the future evolution of aerosols has a significant impact on the evolution of surface radiation and surface temperature. In addition RCM runs taking into account the evolution of aerosols are simulating climate change signal closer to the one of their driving GCM than those with constant aerosols.</p>

scholarly journals Do Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Models Improve Projections of Future Precipitation Change?

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth J. Kendon ◽  
Nikolina Ban ◽  
Nigel M. Roberts ◽  
Hayley J. Fowler ◽  
Malcolm J. Roberts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract Regional climate projections are used in a wide range of impact studies, from assessing future flood risk to climate change impacts on food and energy production. These model projections are typically at 12–50-km resolution, providing valuable regional detail but with inherent limitations, in part because of the need to parameterize convection. The first climate change experiments at convection-permitting resolution (kilometer-scale grid spacing) are now available for the United Kingdom; the Alps; Germany; Sydney, Australia; and the western United States. These models give a more realistic representation of convection and are better able to simulate hourly precipitation characteristics that are poorly represented in coarser-resolution climate models. Here we examine these new experiments to determine whether future midlatitude precipitation projections are robust from coarse to higher resolutions, with implications also for the tropics. We find that the explicit representation of the convective storms themselves, only possible in convection-permitting models, is necessary for capturing changes in the intensity and duration of summertime rain on daily and shorter time scales. Other aspects of rainfall change, including changes in seasonal mean precipitation and event occurrence, appear robust across resolutions, and therefore coarse-resolution regional climate models are likely to provide reliable future projections, provided that large-scale changes from the global climate model are reliable. The improved representation of convective storms also has implications for projections of wind, hail, fog, and lightning. We identify a number of impact areas, especially flooding, but also transport and wind energy, for which very high-resolution models may be needed for reliable future assessments.

scholarly journals Dynamical Downscaling in Seasonal Climate Forecasts: Comparison between RegCM- and WRF-Based Approaches

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 757
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Sangelantoni ◽  
Antonio Ricchi ◽  
Rossella Ferretti ◽  
Gianluca Redaelli
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Temperature Fields

The purpose of the present study is to assess the large-scale signal modulation produced by two dynamically downscaled Seasonal Forecasting Systems (SFSs) and investigate if additional predictive skill can be achieved, compared to the driving global-scale Climate Forecast System (CFS). The two downscaled SFSs are evaluated and compared in terms of physical values and anomaly interannual variability. Downscaled SFSs consist of two two-step dynamical downscaled ensembles of NCEP-CFSv2 re-forecasts. In the first step, the CFS field is downscaled from 100 km to 60 km over Southern Europe (D01). The second downscaling, driven by the corresponding D01, is performed at 12 km over Central Italy (D02). Downscaling is performed using two different Regional Climate Models (RCMs): RegCM v.4 and WRF 3.9.1.1. SFS skills are assessed over a period of 21 winter seasons (1982–2002), by means of deterministic and probabilistic approach and with a metric specifically designed to isolate downscaling signal over different percentiles of distribution. Considering the temperature fields and both deterministic and probabilistic metrics, regional-scale SFSs consistently improve the original CFS Seasonal Anomaly Signal (SAS). For the precipitation, the added value of downscaled SFSs is mainly limited to the topography driven refinement of precipitation field, whereas the SAS is mainly “inherited” by the driving CFS. The regional-scale SFSs do not seem to benefit from the second downscaling (D01 to D02) in terms of SAS improvement. Finally, WRF and RegCM show substantial differences in both SAS and climatologically averaged fields, highlighting a different impact of the common SST driving field.

scholarly journals Zustand und Entwicklung der Trockenheit in Schweizer Wäldern

2015 ◽  
Vol 166 (6) ◽  
pp. 352-360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Remund ◽  
Sabine Augustin
Keyword(s):  
Regional Differences ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Climatic Regions ◽  
Site Water

State and development of drought in Swiss forests Climate scenarios for the 21st century for Switzerland show increasing temperatures and more frequent weather extremes and the risk of drought will become more important. The objective of the study was the calculation of indicators which allow the estimation and evaluation of drought risks on a regional scale. The site water balance and the ratio between actual and potential evapotranspiration (ETa/ETp) were used as indicators. They are closely related to vitality parameters of trees. For projections in the future were used the A1B climate scenario, which assumes a warming of 2.7 to 4.1°C in Switzerland, and three regional climate models (CLM, RCA, REGCM3), which predict different developments regarding precipitation and temperature. Historical time series between 1951 and 2012 and scenarios up to 2100 for different climatic regions were calculated. The indicators reproduce well the measured trends and the regional differences. In all regions there was in the past a trend to increased drought. The Geneva/ Vaud region as well as the western midlands and north Switzerland show the most pronounced changes. Projections with the CLM model (which reproduced best the historic trend 1981–2010 for Switzerland) show increasing drought and, in general, an increasing variability of the climate for the mid-century.

scholarly journals The regional impact of urban emissions on air quality in Europe: the role of the urban canopy effects

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (18) ◽  
pp. 14309-14332
Author(s):  
Peter Huszar ◽  
Jan Karlický ◽  
Jana Marková ◽  
Tereza Nováková ◽  
Marina Liaskoni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Urban Canopy ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Urban Emissions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Urban areas are hot spots of intense emissions, and they influence air quality not only locally but on a regional or even global scale. The impact of urban emissions over different scales depends on the dilution and chemical transformation of the urban plumes which are governed by the local- and regional-scale meteorological conditions. These are influenced by the presence of urbanized land surface via the so-called urban canopy meteorological forcing (UCMF). In this study, we investigate for selected central European cities (Berlin, Budapest, Munich, Prague, Vienna and Warsaw) how the urban emission impact (UEI) is modulated by the UCMF for present-day climate conditions (2015–2016) using two regional climate models, the regional climate models RegCM and Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem; its meteorological part), and two chemistry transport models, Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) coupled to either RegCM and WRF and the “chemical” component of WRF-Chem. The UCMF was calculated by replacing the urbanized surface by a rural one, while the UEI was estimated by removing all anthropogenic emissions from the selected cities. We analyzed the urban-emission-induced changes in near-surface concentrations of NO2, O3 and PM2.5. We found increases in NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations over cities by 4–6 ppbv and 4–6 µg m−3, respectively, meaning that about 40 %–60 % and 20 %–40 % of urban concentrations of NO2 and PM2.5 are caused by local emissions, and the rest is the result of emissions from the surrounding rural areas. We showed that if UCMF is included, the UEI of these pollutants is about 40 %–60 % smaller, or in other words, the urban emission impact is overestimated if urban canopy effects are not taken into account. In case of ozone, models due to UEI usually predict decreases of around −2 to −4 ppbv (about 10 %–20 %), which is again smaller if UCMF is considered (by about 60 %). We further showed that the impact on extreme (95th percentile) air pollution is much stronger, and the modulation of UEI is also larger for such situations. Finally, we evaluated the contribution of the urbanization-induced modifications of vertical eddy diffusion to the modulation of UEI and found that it alone is able to explain the modeled decrease in the urban emission impact if the effects of UCMF are considered. In summary, our results showed that the meteorological changes resulting from urbanization have to be included in regional model studies if they intend to quantify the regional footprint of urban emissions. Ignoring these meteorological changes can lead to the strong overestimation of UEI.

Can Regional Climate Models Represent the Indian Monsoon?

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 849-868 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Lucas-Picher ◽  
Jens H. Christensen ◽  
Fahad Saeed ◽  
Pankaj Kumar ◽  
Shakeel Asharaf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Indian Monsoon ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Sea Temperature ◽  
The North ◽  
The One

Abstract The ability of four regional climate models (RCMs) to represent the Indian monsoon was verified in a consistent framework for the period 1981–2000 using the 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) as lateral boundary forcing data. During the monsoon period, the RCMs are able to capture the spatial distribution of precipitation with a maximum over the central and west coast of India, but with important biases at the regional scale on the east coast of India in Bangladesh and Myanmar. Most models are too warm in the north of India compared to the observations. This has an impact on the simulated mean sea level pressure from the RCMs, being in general too low compared to ERA-40. Those biases perturb the land–sea temperature and pressure contrasts that drive the monsoon dynamics and, as a consequence, lead to an overestimation of wind speed, especially over the sea. The timing of the monsoon onset of the RCMs is in good agreement with the one obtained from observationally based gridded datasets, while the monsoon withdrawal is less well simulated. A Hovmöller diagram representation of the mean annual cycle of precipitation reveals that the meridional motion of the precipitation simulated by the RCMs is comparable to the one observed, but the precipitation amounts and the regional distribution differ substantially between the four RCMs. In summary, the spread at the regional scale between the RCMs indicates that important feedbacks and processes are poorly, or not, taken into account in the state-of-the-art regional climate models.

scholarly journals The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I initiative: Description and highlight results from the initial analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-52
Author(s):  
Filippo Giorgi ◽  
Erika Coppola ◽  
Daniela Jacob ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Sabina Abba Omar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Initial Analysis ◽  
Wide Range

AbstractWe describe the first effort within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluation, or CORDEX-CORE EXP-I. It consists of a set of 21st century projections with two regional climate models (RCMs) downscaling three global climate model (GCM) simulations from the CMIP5 program, for two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP2.6), over 9 CORDEX domains at ~25 km grid spacing. Illustrative examples from the initial analysis of this ensemble are presented, covering a wide range of topics, such as added value of RCM nesting, extreme indices, tropical and extratropical storms, monsoons, ENSO, severe storm environments, emergence of change signals, energy production. They show that the CORDEX-CORE EXP-I ensemble can provide downscaled information of unprecedented comprehensiveness to increase understanding of processes relevant for regional climate change and impacts, and to assess the added value of RCMs. The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I dataset, which will be incrementally augmented with new simulations, is intended to be a public resource available to the scientific and end-user communities for application to process studies, impacts on different socioeconomic sectors and climate service activities. The future of the CORDEX-CORE initiative is also discussed.

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