scholarly journals Gains and losses in surface solar radiation with dynamic aerosols in regional climate simulations for Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Jerez ◽  
Laura Palacios-Peña ◽  
Claudia Gutiérrez ◽  
Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero ◽  
Jose María López-Romero ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosol ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Gains And Losses

Abstract. The solar resource can be highly influenced by clouds and atmospheric aerosol, which has been named by the IPCC as the most uncertainty climate forcing agent. Nonetheless, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) hardly ever model dynamically atmospheric aerosol concentration and their interaction with radiation and clouds, in contrast to Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The objective of this work is to evince the role of the interactively modeling of aerosol concentrations and their interactions with radiation and clouds in Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations with a focus on summer mean surface downward solar radiation (RSDS) and over Europe. The results show that the response of RSDS is mainly led by the aerosol effects on cloudiness, which explain well the differences between the experiments in which aerosol-radiation and aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions are taken into account or not. Under present climate, a reduction about 5% in RSDS was found when aerosols are dynamically solved by the RCM, which is larger when only aerosol-radiation interactions are considered. However, for future projections, the inclusion of aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions results in the most negative RSDS change pattern (while with slight values), showing noticeable differences with the projections from either the other RCM experiments or from their driving GCM (which do hold some significant positive signals). Differences in RSDS among experiments are much more softer under clear-sky conditions.

Changes in extreme surface solar radiation in EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blanka Bartok
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
The Impact

<p>As solar energy share is showing a significant growth in the European electricity generation system, assessments regarding long-term variation of this variable related to climate change are becoming more and more relevant for this sector. Several studies analysed the impact of climate change on the solar energy sector in Europe (Jerez et al, 2015) finding light impact (-14%; +2%) in terms of mean surface solar radiation. The present study focuses on extreme values, namely on the distribution of low surface solar radiation (overcast situation) and high surface solar radiation (clear sky situation), since the frequencies of these situations have high impact on electricity generation.</p><p>The study considers 11 high-resolution (0.11 deg) bias-corrected climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble with 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled by 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs).</p><p>Changes in extreme surface solar radiation frequencies show different regional patterns over Europe.</p><p>The study also includes a case study determining the changes in solar power generation induced by the extreme situations.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>Jerez et al (2015): The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe, Nature Communications 6(1):10014, 10.1038/ncomms10014</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Review of Surface Solar Radiation Projections in Bias-Corrected Euro-Cordex Regional Climate Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-13
Author(s):  
Blanka Bartók
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Seasonal Time Scale

AbstractRegional climate models (RCMs) are used in a wide range of climate applications as they can provide high resolution (up to 10 to 20 km or less) and multi-decadal simulations of the climate system describing climate feedback mechanisms acting at the regional scale. However due to different forcing data and physics parametrisations regional climate models might produce different results. This study aims to achieve a state-of-the-art knowledge of bias-corrected surface solar radiation projections coming from 11 EURO-CORDEX regional climate models. First a comparison against 63 GEBA observations is elaborated indicating a general overestimation of surface solar radiation (SSR) in the RCMs by 6.12 W/m2 (4.4%). Next changes in surface radiation between the period of 2031-2060 and 1971-2000 are presented on annual and seasonal time scale. The model projections indicate robust increase in SSR mainly in the western part of the Mediterranean region, while the northern part of the continent is characterised by decreases in SSR till the middle of this century. The study emphasis the need of an overall validation of different climate models before introducing them in impact studies in order to have an overview regarding the uncertainties.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of surface solar radiation to aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions over Europe in WRFv3.6.1 climatic runs with fully interactive aerosols

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 1533-1551
Author(s):  
Sonia Jerez ◽  
Laura Palacios-Peña ◽  
Claudia Gutiérrez ◽  
Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero ◽  
Jose María López-Romero ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosols ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Minor Role ◽  
Atmospheric Concentration ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Aerosol Effect

Abstract. The amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface can be highly determined by atmospheric aerosols, which have been pointed to as the most uncertain climate forcing agents through their direct (scattering and absorption), semi-direct (absorption implying a thermodynamic effect on clouds) and indirect (modification of cloud properties when aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei) effects. Nonetheless, regional climate models hardly ever dynamically model the atmospheric concentration of aerosols and their interactions with radiation (ARIs) and clouds (ACIs). The objective of this work is to evince the role of modeling ARIs and ACIs in Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations with fully interactive aerosols (online resolved concentrations) with a focus on summer mean surface downward solar radiation (RSDS) over Europe. Under historical conditions (1991–2010), both ARIs and ACIs reduce RSDS by a few percentage points over central and northern regions. This reduction is larger when only ARIs are resolved, while ACIs counteract the effect of the former by up to half. The response of RSDS to the activation of ARIs and ACIs is mainly led by the aerosol effect on cloud coverage, while the aerosol effect on atmospheric optical depth plays a very minor role, which evinces the importance of semi-direct and indirect aerosol effects. In fact, differences in RSDS among experiments with and without aerosols are smaller under clear-sky conditions. In terms of future projections (2031–2050 vs. 1991–2010), the baseline pattern (from an experiment without aerosols) shows positive signals southward and negative signals northward. While ARIs enhance the former and reduce the latter, ACIs work in the opposite direction and provide a flatter RSDS change pattern, further evincing the opposite impact from semi-direct and indirect effects and the nontrivial influence of the latter.

Projected changes in surface solar radiation in CMIP5 global climate models and in EURO-CORDEX regional climate models for Europe

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 2665-2683 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blanka Bartók ◽  
Martin Wild ◽  
Doris Folini ◽  
Daniel Lüthi ◽  
Sven Kotlarski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Surface Solar Radiation ◽  
Projected Changes

The Mesoscale Response to Global Warming over the Pacific Northwest Evaluated Using a Regional Climate Model Ensemble

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-56
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Continental Interior

This paper describes the downscaling of an ensemble of twelve GCMs using the WRF model at 12-km grid spacing over the period 1970-2099, examining the mesoscale impacts of global warming as well as the uncertainties in its mesoscale expression. The RCP 8.5 emissions scenario was used to drive both global and regional climate models. The regional climate modeling system reduced bias and improved realism for a historical period, in contrast to substantial errors for the GCM simulations driven by lack of resolution. The regional climate ensemble indicated several mesoscale responses to global warming that were not apparent in the global model simulations, such as enhanced continental interior warming during both winter and summer as well as increasing winter precipitation trends over the windward slopes of regional terrain, with declining trends to the lee of major barriers. During summer there is general drying, except to the east of the Cascades. April 1 snowpack declines are large over the lower to middle slopes of regional terrain, with small snowpack increases over the lower elevations of the interior. Snow-albedo feedbacks are very different between GCM and RCM projections, with the GCM’s producing large, unphysical areas of snowpack loss and enhanced warming. Daily average winds change little under global warming, but maximum easterly winds decline modestly, driven by a preferential sea level pressure decline over the continental interior. Although temperatures warm continuously over the domain after approximately 2010, with slight acceleration over time, occurrences of temperature extremes increase rapidly during the second half of the 21st century.

scholarly journals A Maieutic Exploration of Nudging Strategies for Regional Climate Applications Using the WRF Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (8) ◽  
pp. 1883-1906 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanya L. Spero ◽  
Christopher G. Nolte ◽  
Megan S. Mallard ◽  
Jared H. Bowden
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Spectral Nudging ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Quality Health

AbstractThe use of nudging in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to constrain regional climate downscaling simulations is gaining in popularity because it can reduce error and improve consistency with the driving data. While some attention has been paid to whether nudging is beneficial for downscaling, very little research has been performed to determine best practices. In fact, many published papers use the default nudging configuration (which was designed for numerical weather prediction), follow practices used by colleagues, or adapt methods developed for other regional climate models. Here, a suite of 45 three-year simulations is conducted with WRF over the continental United States to systematically and comprehensively examine a variety of nudging strategies. The simulations here use a longer test period than did previously published works to better evaluate the robustness of each strategy through all four seasons, through multiple years, and across nine regions of the United States. The analysis focuses on the evaluation of 2-m temperature and precipitation, which are two of the most commonly required downscaled output fields for air quality, health, and ecosystems applications. Several specific recommendations are provided to effectively use nudging in WRF for regional climate applications. In particular, spectral nudging is preferred over analysis nudging. Spectral nudging performs best in WRF when it is used toward wind above the planetary boundary layer (through the stratosphere) and temperature and moisture only within the free troposphere. Furthermore, the nudging toward moisture is very sensitive to the nudging coefficient, and the default nudging coefficient in WRF is too high to be used effectively for moisture.

scholarly journals Evaluation of coupled regional climate models in representing the local biophysical effects of afforestation over continental China

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-62
Author(s):  
Jun Ge ◽  
Bo Qiu ◽  
Bowen Chu ◽  
Duzitian Li ◽  
Lingling Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Induced Changes ◽  
Biophysical Effects

AbstractRegional climate models have been widely used to examine the biophysical effects of afforestation, but their performances in this respect have rarely been evaluated. To fill this knowledge gap, an evaluation method based on the “space for time” strategy is proposed here. Using this method, we validate the performances of three regional models, the Regional Climate Model (RegCM), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the WRF model run at a convection-permitting resolution (WRF-CP), in representing the local biophysical effects of afforestation over continental China against satellite observations. The results show that WRF and WRF-CP can not accurately describe afforestation-induced changes in surface biophysical properties, e.g. albedo or leaf area index. Second, all models exhibit poor simulations of afforestation-induced changes in latent and sensible heat fluxes. In particular, the observed increase in the summer latent heat due to afforestation is substantially underestimated by all models. Third, the models are basically reasonable in representing the biophysical impact of afforestation on temperature. The cooling of the daily mean surface temperature and 2-meter temperature in summer are reproduced well. Nevertheless, the mechanism driving the cooling effect may be improperly represented by the models. Moreover, the models perform relatively poorly in representing the response of the daily minimum surface temperature to afforestation. This highlights the necessity of evaluating the representation of the biophysical effects by a model before the model is employed to carry out afforestation experiments. This study serves as a test bed for validating regional model performance in this respect.

scholarly journals How does bias correction of regional climate model precipitation affect modelled runoff?

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 711-728 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Teng ◽  
N. J. Potter ◽  
F. H. S. Chiew ◽  
L. Zhang ◽  
B. Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Simulated Precipitation

Abstract. Many studies bias correct daily precipitation from climate models to match the observed precipitation statistics, and the bias corrected data are then used for various modelling applications. This paper presents a review of recent methods used to bias correct precipitation from regional climate models (RCMs). The paper then assesses four bias correction methods applied to the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model simulated precipitation, and the follow-on impact on modelled runoff for eight catchments in southeast Australia. Overall, the best results are produced by either quantile mapping or a newly proposed two-state gamma distribution mapping method. However, the differences between the methods are small in the modelling experiments here (and as reported in the literature), mainly due to the substantial corrections required and inconsistent errors over time (non-stationarity). The errors in bias corrected precipitation are typically amplified in modelled runoff. The tested methods cannot overcome limitations of the RCM in simulating precipitation sequence, which affects runoff generation. Results further show that whereas bias correction does not seem to alter change signals in precipitation means, it can introduce additional uncertainty to change signals in high precipitation amounts and, consequently, in runoff. Future climate change impact studies need to take this into account when deciding whether to use raw or bias corrected RCM results. Nevertheless, RCMs will continue to improve and will become increasingly useful for hydrological applications as the bias in RCM simulations reduces.

scholarly journals River Flow Alterations Caused by Intense Anthropogenic Uses and Future Climate Variability Implications in the Balkans

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Christina Papadaki ◽  
Elias Dimitriou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Environmental Flow ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Sustainable Water Resources Management

River flow alterations, caused by climate variability/change and intense anthropogenic uses (e.g., flow regulation by dams) are considered among the main global challenges of which hydrologists should be dealing with. For the purpose of this study, environmental flow and potential hydrological alterations are made for the extended Drin river basin, with limited historical hydrological information available. To overcome this limitation environmental flow assessment is made using simulated streamflow data from a watershed hydrological model. Descriptive statistics applied to streamflow values indicate that median monthly flows with no anthropogenic uses are consistently greater than those with anthropogenic uses by 0–37.4 m3/s in all subbasins. Moreover, an investigation of potential climate variability/change impact on river flow regime is made using streamflow simulations from a global hydrological model. Results indicate that hydrologic alteration is intense between nonregulated and regulated streamflow conditions. More specifically, for all Global Circulation Models and Regional Climate Models combinations, and both regulated and unregulated streamflow conditions, the minimum discharge values had statistically significant decreasing trends, except one combination (RCP 4.5–RCA4/ECEARTH) for unregulated conditions. Finally, results from this preliminary analysis could enhance the necessary conversations among all relevant stakeholders to discuss and decide on sustainable water resources management issues for the development of a Drin Basin Management Plan in the future.

scholarly journals Simulation of regional climate models of total cloud fraction in Morocco for the period of 2020-2050

2018 ◽  
pp. 21-27
Author(s):  
El Hadri Youssef ◽  
V. M. Khokhlov
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Green Energy ◽  
The Future

The Moroccan energy system is highly dependent on external energy markets. The use of solar energy is one of the most promising ways in the development of renewable energy sources. At the moment, there are several scenarios for the development of renewable energy in Morocco diverging only in quantitative assessments. All of them are aimed at increasing the generation of green energy, from the complete satisfaction of all needs of Moroccan consumers to the opportunity of exporting some of its environmentally friendly electricity to Europe. Estimation of energy efficiency of solar installations is usually carried out on the basis of calculations of solar radiation arrival in the presence of cloudless sky. Clouds significantly reduce amount of solar radiation and sunshine duration. This study is aimed at determination of possible quantitative parameters of the total cloud cover and the areas in which the cloud cover would have the least impact on the amount of incoming solar radiation in Morocco in 2020-2050. The article presents the results of simulation of total cloud fraction using 11 regional climate models of CORDEX project for the period of 2020-2050 in Morocco. For the period of 2020-2050 the average values of total cloud fraction on the territory of Morocco will have the smallest values within the plains located near the border with Algeria on the territory of the prefecture of Sous-Massa lying at the foot of the southern slopes of the Anti-Atlas. The analysis of the annual regime of total cloud fraction showed that in the future it will be of a different nature in different parts of the country due to various factors affecting its formation. The area with the smallest volumes of monthly total cloud fraction will lie within the territory the southern part of prefecture Draa-Tafilalet and prefectures Sous-Massa, Guelmim-Oued Noun, Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra, Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab excluding their coastal parts of the Atlantic Ocean. In the future most of the territory of Morocco will be characterized by a low amount of total cloud fraction, which, in its turn, will have an insignificant effect on the amount of solar radiation entering to the underlying surface of these areas. In terms of solar power, the best conditions will exist at the southern parts of Morocco, excluding the coast where the total cloud fraction will have the least impact on the amount of solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface and on sunshine duration.

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