Bayesian analysis of sea-level sensitivity to CO2 forcing across the mid-Pleistocene transition: possible implications for early-Pleistocene ice-sheet extent

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parker Liautaud ◽  
Peter Huybers
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Late Pleistocene ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Early Pleistocene ◽  
Middle Pleistocene ◽  
Model Parameters

<p><span>Foregoing studies have found that sea-level transitioned to becoming approximately twice as sensitive to CO</span><span><sub>2</sub></span><span> radiative forcing between the early and late Pleistocene (Chalk et al., 2017; Dyez et al., 2018). In this study we analyze the relationships among sea-level, orbital variations, and CO</span><span><sub>2</sub></span><span> observations in a time-dependent, zonally-averaged energy balance model having a simple ice sheet. Probability distributions for model parameters are inferred using a hierarchical Bayesian method representing model and data uncertainties, including those arising from uncertain geological age models. We find that well-established nonlinearities in the climate system can explain sea-level becoming 2.5x (2.1x - 4.5x) more sensitive to radiative forcing between 2 and 0 Ma. Denial-of-mechanism experiments show that the increase in sensitivity is diminished by 36% (31% - 39%) if omitting geometric effects associated with thickening of a larger ice sheet, by 81% (73% - 92%) if omitting the ice-albedo feedback, and by more than 96% (93% - 98%) if omitting both. We also show that prescribing a fixed sea-level age model leads to different inferences of ice-sheet dimension, planetary albedo, and lags in the response to radiative forcing than if using a more complete approach in which sea-level ages are jointly inferred with model physics. Consistency of the model ice-sheet with geologic constraints on the southern terminus of the Laurentide ice sheet can be obtained by prescribing lower basal shear stress during the early Pleistocene, but such more-expansive ice sheets imply lower CO</span><span><sub>2</sub></span><span> levels than would an ice-sheet having the same aspect ratio as in the late Pleistocene, exacerbating disagreements with </span><span>𝛿</span><span><sup>11</sup></span><span>B-derived CO</span><span><sub>2</sub></span><span> estimates. These results raise a number of possibilities, including that (1) geologic evidence for expansive early-Pleistocene ice sheets represents only intermittent and spatially-limited ice-margin advances, (2) </span><span>𝛿</span><span><sup>11</sup></span><span>B-derived CO</span><span><sub>2</sub></span><span> reconstructions are biased high, or (3) that another component of the global energy balance system, such as the average ice albedo or a process not included in our model, also changed through the middle Pleistocene. Future work will seek to better constrain early-Pleistocene CO</span><span><sub>2</sub></span><span> levels by way of a more complete incorporation of proxy uncertainties and biases into the Bayesian analysis.</span></p>

Increased sea-level sensitivity to CO2 forcing across the Middle Pleistocene Transition from ice-albedo and ice-volume nonlinearities

2021 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Parker Liautaud ◽  
Peter Huybers
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Late Pleistocene ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Early Pleistocene ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Middle Pleistocene ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
The Past

AbstractProxy reconstructions indicate that sea level responded more sensitively to CO2 radiative forcing in the late Pleistocene than in the early Pleistocene, a transition that was proposed to arise from changes in ice-sheet dynamics. In this study we analyse the links between sea level, orbital variations, and CO2 using an energy-balance model having a simple ice sheet. Model parameters, including for age models, are inferred over the late Pleistocene using a hierarchical Bayesian method, and the inferred relationships are used to evaluate CO2 levels over the past 2 My in relation to sea level. Early-Pleistocene model CO2 averages 246 ppm (244 ppm - 249 ppm 95% c.i.) across 2-1 Ma and indicates that sea level was less sensitive to radiative forcing than in the late Pleistocene, consistent with foregoing δ11B-derived estimates. Weaker early-Pleistocene sea-level sensitivity originates from a weaker ice-albedo feedback and the fact that smaller ice sheets are thinner, absent changes over time in model equations or parameters. An alternative scenario involving thin and expansive early-Pleistocene ice sheets, in accord with some lines of geologic evidence, implies 15 ppm lower average CO2 or ~10-15 m higher average sea level during the early Pleistocene relative to the original scenario. Our results do not rule out dynamical transitions during the middle Pleistocene, but indicate that variations in the sea-level response to CO2 forcing over the past 2 My can be explained on the basis of nonlinearities associated with ice-albedo feedbacks and ice-sheet geometry that are consistently present across this interval.

Early and Middle Pleistocene environments, landforms and sediments in Scotland

2018 ◽  
Vol 110 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 5-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrian M. HALL ◽  
Jon W. MERRITT ◽  
E. Rodger CONNELL ◽  
Alun HUBBARD
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Chemical Weathering ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Early Pleistocene ◽  
Middle Pleistocene ◽  
Glacial Erosion ◽  
Glacial Sediments ◽  
Ice Caps ◽  
The North

ABSTRACTThis paper reviews the changing environments, developing landforms and terrestrial stratigraphy during the Early and Middle Pleistocene stages in Scotland. Cold stages after 2.7 Ma brought mountain ice caps and lowland permafrost, but larger ice sheets were short-lived. The late Early and Middle Pleistocene sedimentary record found offshore indicates more than 10 advances of ice sheets from Scotland into the North Sea but only 4–5 advances have been identified from the terrestrial stratigraphy. Two primary modes of glaciation, mountain ice cap and full ice sheet modes, can be recognised. Different zones of glacial erosion in Scotland reflect this bimodal glaciation and the spatially and temporally variable dynamics at glacier beds. Depths of glacial erosion vary from almost zero in Buchan to hundreds of metres in glens in the western Highlands and in basins both onshore and offshore. The presence of tors and blockfields indicates repeated development of patches of cold-based, non-erosive glacier ice on summits and plateaux. In lowlands, chemical weathering continued to operate during interglacials, but gruss-type saprolites are mainly of Pliocene to Early Pleistocene age. The Middle Pleistocene terrestrial stratigraphic record in Scotland, whilst fragmentary and poorly dated, provides important and accessible evidence of changing glacial, periglacial and interglacial environments over at least three stadial–interstadial–interglacial cycles. The distributions of blockfields and tors and the erratic contents of glacial sediments indicate that the configuration, thermal regime and pattern of ice flow during MIS 6 were broadly comparable to those of the last ice sheet. Improved control over the ages of Early and Middle Pleistocene sediments, soils and saprolites and on long-term rates of weathering and erosion, combined with information on palaeoenvironments, ice extent and sea level, will in future allow development and testing of new models of Pleistocene tectonics, isostasy, sea-level change and ice sheet dynamics in Scotland.

scholarly journals Reconstructing the evolution of ice sheets, sea level, and atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> during the past 3.6 million years

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 361-377
Author(s):  
Constantijn J. Berends ◽  
Bas de Boer ◽  
Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Early Pleistocene ◽  
Glacial Cycles ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Late Pliocene ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
The Past

Abstract. Understanding the evolution of, and the interactions between, ice sheets and the global climate over geological timescales is important for being able to project their future evolution. However, direct observational evidence of past CO2 concentrations, and the implied radiative forcing, only exists for the past 800 000 years. Records of benthic δ18O date back millions of years but contain signals from both land ice volume and ocean temperature. In recent years, inverse forward modelling has been developed as a method to disentangle these two signals, resulting in mutually consistent reconstructions of ice volume, temperature, and CO2. We use this approach to force a hybrid ice-sheet–climate model with a benthic δ18O stack, reconstructing the evolution of the ice sheets, global mean sea level, and atmospheric CO2 during the late Pliocene and the Pleistocene, from 3.6 million years (Myr) ago to the present day. During the warmer-than-present climates of the late Pliocene, reconstructed CO2 varies widely, from 320–440 ppmv for warm periods to 235–250 ppmv for the early glacial excursion ∼3.3 million years ago. Sea level is relatively stable during this period, with maxima of 6–14 m and minima of 12–26 m during glacial episodes. Both CO2 and sea level are within the wide ranges of values covered by available proxy data for this period. Our results for the Pleistocene agree well with the ice-core CO2 record, as well as with different available sea-level proxy data. For the Early Pleistocene, 2.6–1.2 Myr ago, we simulate 40 kyr glacial cycles, with interglacial CO2 decreasing from 280–300 ppmv at the beginning of the Pleistocene to 250–280 ppmv just before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Peak glacial CO2 decreases from 220–250 to 205–225 ppmv during this period. After the MPT, when the glacial cycles change from 40 to 80 120 kyr cyclicity, the glacial–interglacial contrast increases, with interglacial CO2 varying between 250–320 ppmv and peak glacial values decreasing to 170–210 ppmv.

Biostratigraphic Correlation of Pleistocene Marine Deposits and Sea Levels, Atlantic Coastal Plain of the Southeastern United States

1980 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas M. Cronin
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
South Carolina ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Late Pleistocene ◽  
Coastal Plain ◽  
Atlantic Coastal Plain ◽  
Early Pleistocene ◽  
Middle Pleistocene ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Atlantic Coastal

AbstractMarine ostracodes from 50 localities were studied to determine the age and elevation of Pleistocene sea levels in the Atlantic coastal plain from Maryland to northern Florida. Using ostracode taxon and concurrent ranges, published planktic biostratigraphic, paleomagnetic, and radiometric data, ostracode assemblage zones representing early (1.8-1.0 my), middle (0.7-0.4 my), and late (0.3-0.01 my) Pleistocene deposition were recognized and used as a basis for correlation. Ostracode biofacies signifying lagoonal, oyster bank, estuarine, open sound, and inner sublittoral environments provided estimated ranges of paleodepths for each locality. From these data the following minimum and maximum Pleistocene sea-level estimates were determined for the southeastern coastal plain: late Pleistocene, 2–10 m from Maryland to northern Florida; middle Pleistocene, 6–15 m in northern South Carolina; early Pleistocene, 4–22 m in central North Carolina, 13–35 m in southern North Carolina, and 6–27 m in South Carolina. Climatically induced glacio-eustatic sea-level fluctuations adequately account for the late Pleistocene sea-level data, but other factors, possibly differential crustal uplift, may have complicated the early Pleistocene record.

scholarly journals GREB-ISM v0.3: A coupled ice sheet model for the Global Resolved Energy Balance model for global simulations on time-scales of 100 kyr

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiang Xie ◽  
Dietmar Dommenget ◽  
Felicity S. McCormack ◽  
Andrew N. Mackintosh
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Desktop Computer ◽  
Fully Coupled ◽  
And Sea Level

Abstract. We introduce a newly developed global ice sheet model coupled to the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) climate model for the simulation of global ice sheet evolution on time scales of 100 kyr or longer (GREB-ISM v0.3). Ice sheets and ice shelves are simulated on a global grid, fully interacting with the climate simulation of surface temperature, precipitation, albedo, land-sea mask, topography and sea level. Thus, it is a fully coupled atmosphere, ocean, land and ice sheet model. We test the model in ice sheet stand-alone and fully coupled simulations. The ice sheet model dynamics behave similarly to other hybrid SIA (Shallow Ice Approximation) and SSA (Shallow Shelf Approximation) models, but the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accumulates too much ice using present-day boundary conditions. The coupled model simulations produce global equilibrium ice sheet volumes and calving rates similar to observed for present day boundary conditions. We designed a series of idealised experiments driven by oscillating solar radiation forcing on periods of 20 kyr, 50 kyr and 100 kyr in the Northern Hemisphere. These simulations show clear interactions between the climate system and ice sheets, resulting in slow build-up and fast decay of ice-covered areas and global ice volume. The results also show that Northern Hemisphere ice sheets respond more strongly to time scales longer than 100 kyr. The coupling to the atmosphere and sea level leads to climate interactions between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The model can run global simulations of 100 kyr per day on a desktop computer, allowing the simulation of the whole Quaternary period (2.6 Myrs) within one month.

scholarly journals Estimates of Uncertainty in Predictions of Global Mean Surface Temperature

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 843-855 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. Kettleborough ◽  
B. B. B. Booth ◽  
P. A. Stott ◽  
M. R. Allen
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract A method for estimating uncertainty in future climate change is discussed in detail and applied to predictions of global mean temperature change. The method uses optimal fingerprinting to make estimates of uncertainty in model simulations of twentieth-century warming. These estimates are then projected forward in time using a linear, compact relationship between twentieth-century warming and twenty-first-century warming. This relationship is established from a large ensemble of energy balance models. By varying the energy balance model parameters an estimate is made of the error associated with using the linear relationship in forecasts of twentieth-century global mean temperature. Including this error has very little impact on the forecasts. There is a 50% chance that the global mean temperature change between 1995 and 2035 will be greater than 1.5 K for the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1FI scenario. Under SRES B2 the same threshold is not exceeded until 2055. These results should be relatively robust to model developments for a given radiative forcing history.

Gaussian Process emulation of multi-model ice sheet and glacier projections

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamsin Edwards ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gaussian Process ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Gaussian Process Emulation ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
Global Mean

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted with ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios (SSPs), nor with coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects (ISMIP6 and GlacierMIP) generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but mostly used previous generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections for the SSPs using Gaussian Process emulation of the ice sheet and glacier model ensembles. We model the sea level contribution as a function of global mean surface air temperature forcing and (for the ice sheets) model parameters, with the 'nugget' allowing for multi-model structural uncertainty. Approximate independence of ice sheet and glacier models is assumed, because a given model responds very differently under different setups (such as initialisation). &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;We find that limiting global warming to 1.5&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;#176;&lt;strong&gt;C &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;would halve the land ice contribution to 21&lt;sup&gt;st&lt;/sup&gt; century &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;sea level rise&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;, relative to current emissions pledges: t&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;strong&gt;he median decreases from 25 to 13 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100. However, the Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to emissions scenario, due to competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions for climate and Antarctic ice sheet model selection and ice sheet model parameter values, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 cm SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95&lt;sup&gt;th&lt;/sup&gt; percentile exceeding half a metre even under 1.5&lt;/strong&gt;&amp;#176;&lt;strong&gt;C warming. &lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Gaussian Process emulation can therefore be a powerful tool for estimating probability density functions from multi-model ensembles and testing the sensitivity of the results to assumptions.&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

Relative control of bedrock roughness versus topography on global glacier bed friction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Gagliardini ◽  
Fabien Gillet-Chaulet ◽  
Florent Gimbert
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Inverse Method ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Grid Resolution ◽  
Classical Approach ◽  
Bed Topography ◽  
Bed Friction

&lt;p&gt;Friction at the base of ice-sheets has been shown to be one of the largest uncertainty of model projections for the contribution of ice-sheet to future sea level rise. On hard beds, most of the apparent friction is the result of ice flowing over the bumps that have a size smaller than described by the grid resolution of ice-sheet models. To account for this friction, the classical approach is to replace this under resolved roughness by an ad-hoc friction law. In an imaginary world of unlimited computing resource and highly resolved bedrock DEM, one should solve for all bed roughnesses assuming pure sliding at the bedrock-ice interface. If such solutions are not affordable at the scale of an ice-sheet or even at the scale of a glacier, the effect of small bumps can be inferred using synthetical periodic geometry. In this presentation,&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160; &lt;/span&gt;beds are constructed using the superposition of up to five bed geometries made of sinusoidal bumps of decreasing wavelength and amplitudes. The contribution to the total friction of all five beds is evaluated by inverse methods using the most resolved solution as observation. It is shown that small features of few meters can contribute up to almost half of the total friction, depending on the wavelengths and amplitudes distribution. This work also confirms that the basal friction inferred using inverse method&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160; &lt;/span&gt;is very sensitive to how the bed topography is described by the model grid, and therefore depends on the size of the model grid itself.&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet–climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 2195-2213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Philippe Huybrechts ◽  
Marie-France Loutre ◽  
Thierry Fichefet
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
A Minor ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
And Sea Level

Abstract. As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG,  ∼  130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate–ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet–climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.

The response of large ice sheets to climatic change

1992 ◽  
Vol 338 (1285) ◽  
pp. 235-242 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Mixing Ratio ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Environmental Models ◽  
Level Change ◽  
The Antarctic

The prediction of short-term (100 year) changes in the mass balance of ice sheets and longer-term (1000 years) variations in their ice volumes is important for a range of climatic and environmental models. The Antarctic ice sheet contains between 24 M km 3 and 29 M km 3 of ice, equivalent to a eustatic sea level change of between 60m and 72m. The annual surface accumulation is estimated to be of the order of 2200 Gtonnes, equivalent to a sea level change of 6 mm a -1 . Analysis of the present-day accumulation regime of Antarctica indicates that about 25% ( ca. 500 Gt a -1 ) of snowfall occurs in the Antarctic Peninsula region with an area of only 6.8% of the continent. To date most models have focused upon solving predictive algorithms for the climate-sensitivity of the ice sheet, and assume: (i) surface mass balance is equivalent to accumulation (i.e. no melting, evaporation or deflation); (ii) percentage change in accumulation is proportional to change in saturation mixing ratio above the surface inversion layer; and (iii) there is a linear relation between mean annual surface air tem perature and saturation mixing ratio. For the A ntarctic Peninsula with mountainous terrain containing ice caps, outlet glaciers, valley glaciers and ice shelves, where there can be significant ablation at low levels and distinct climatic regimes, models of the climate response must be more complex. In addition, owing to the high accumulation and flow rates, even short- to medium -term predictions must take account of ice dynamics. Relationships are derived for the mass balance sensitivity and, using a model developed by Hindmarsh, the transient effects of ice dynamics are estimated. It is suggested that for a 2°C rise in mean annual surface tem perature over 40 years, ablation in the A ntarctic Peninsula region would contribute at least 1.0 mm to sea level rise, offsetting the fall of 0.5 mm contributed by increased accum ulation.

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