Benefits of ice-ocean coupling for medium-range forecasts in polar and sub-polar regions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Day ◽  
Sarah Keeley ◽  
Kristian Mogensen ◽  
Steffen Tietsche ◽  
Linus Magnusson
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Dynamic Coupling ◽  
Major Step ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Ocean Coupling ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Ice Edge ◽  
Range Forecasts

<p>Dynamic sea ice and ocean have long been recognised as an important components in the Earth System Models used to generate climate change projections and more recently seasonal forecasts. However, the benefit of forecasts on the timescales of days to weeks has received less attention. Until recently it was assumed that sea-ice-ocean fields change so slowly that it is acceptable to keep them fixed in short and medium-range forecasts. However, at the ice edge the presence of sea ice dramatically influences surface fluxes, particularly when the overlying atmosphere is much colder than the open ocean so errors in the position of the sea ice, caused by simply persisting this field, have the potential to degrade atmospheric skill. To address this and similar issues, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) recently took the pioneering step of coupling a dynamic–thermodynamic sea ice-ocean model to the Integrated Forecast System, developing the first coupled medium-range forecasting system. This was a major step towards making ECMWF’s forecasts seamless across all timescales.</p><p>In this study we assess the benefits of including coupled sea-ice ocean processes in the medium-range by comparing set of ten-day forecasts with and without dynamic ice-ocean coupling, focussing on forecast performance at the edge of the sea ice and in the surrounding region. We demonstrate that dynamic coupling improves forecasts of the sea ice edge at all leadtimes. Further, the skill gained is larger during periods when the ice edge is advancing or retreating rapidly. We will also explore whether dynamic coupling has an impact on forecast skill in atmospheric parameters downstream of the ice edge.  </p>

scholarly journals An Intercomparison of Verification Scores for Evaluating the Sea Ice Edge Position in Seasonal Forecasts

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (9) ◽  
pp. 4757-4763 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cyril Palerme ◽  
Malte Müller ◽  
Arne Melsom
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Ice Edge ◽  
Sea Ice Edge

Use of C-Band Scatterometer for Sea Ice Edge Identification

2012 ◽  
Vol 50 (7) ◽  
pp. 2669-2677 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars-Anders Breivik ◽  
Steinar Eastwood ◽  
Thomas Lavergne
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Edge ◽  
Sea Ice Edge

On the Bering Sea ice edge front

1985 ◽  
Vol 90 (C2) ◽  
pp. 3185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin D. Muench ◽  
James D. Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Bering Sea ◽  
Ice Edge ◽  
Sea Ice Edge ◽  
The Bering Sea

scholarly journals Ice-edge detection from Japanese C-band radar and high-frequency radar coastal stations

2013 ◽  
Vol 54 (62) ◽  
pp. 59-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Shirasawa ◽  
N. Ebuchi ◽  
M. Leppäranta ◽  
T. Takatsuka
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Edge Detection ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Hf Radar ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Geometrical Structures ◽  
Overlapping Data ◽  
Ice Edge

AbstractA C-band sea-ice radar (SIR) network system was operated to monitor the sea-ice conditions off the Okhotsk Sea coast of northern Hokkaido, Japan, from 1969 to 2004. The system was based on three radar stations, which were capable of continuously monitoring the sea surface as far as 60 km offshore along a 250 km long coastal section. In 2004 the SIR system was closed down and a sea surface monitoring programme was commenced using high-frequency (HF) radar; this system provides information on surface currents in open-water conditions, while areas with ‘no signal’ can be identified as sea ice. The present study compares HF radar data with SIR data to evaluate their feasibility for sea-ice remote sensing. The period of overlapping data was 1.5 months. The results show that HF radar information can be utilized for ice-edge mapping although it cannot fully compensate for the loss of the SIR system. In particular, HF radar does not provide ice concentration, ice roughness and geometrical structures or ice kinematics. The probability of ice-edge detection by HF radar was 0.9 and the correlation of the ice-edge distance between the radars was 0.7.

Evaluation of Global Forecast System (GFS) Medium-Range Precipitation Forecasts in the Nile River Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haowen Yue ◽  
Mekonnen Gebremichael ◽  
Vahid Nourani
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Global Forecast System ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Medium Range

Abstract Reliable weather forecasts are valuable in a number of applications, such as, agriculture, hydropower, and weather-related disease outbreaks. Global weather forecasts are widely used, but detailed evaluation over specific regions is paramount for users and operational centers to enhance the usability of forecasts and improve their accuracy. This study presents evaluation of the Global Forecast System (GFS) medium-range (1 day – 15 day) precipitation forecasts in the nine sub-basins of the Nile basin using NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERG) “Final Run” satellite-gauge merged rainfall observations. The GFS products are available at a temporal resolution of 3-6 hours, spatial resolution of 0.25°, and its version-15 products are available since 12 June 2019. GFS forecasts are evaluated at a temporal scale of 1-15 days, spatial scale of 0.25° to all the way to the sub-basin scale, and for a period of one year (15 June 2019 – 15 June 2020). The results show that performance of the 1-day lead daily basin-averaged GFS forecast performance, as measured through the modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), is poor (0 < KGE < 0.5) for most of the sub-basins. The factors contributing to the low performance are: (1) large overestimation bias in watersheds located in wet climate regimes in the northern hemispheres (Millennium watershed, Upper Atbara & Setit watershed, and Khashm El Gibra watershed), and (2) lower ability in capturing the temporal dynamics of watershed-averaged rainfall that have smaller watershed areas (Roseires at 14,110 sq. km and Sennar at 13,895 sq. km). GFS has better bias for watersheds located in the dry parts of the northern hemisphere or wet parts of the southern hemisphere, and better ability in capturing the temporal dynamics of watershed-average rainfall for large watershed areas. IMERG Early has better bias than GFS forecast for the Millennium watershed but still comparable and worse bias for the Upper Atbara & Setit, and Khashm El Gibra watersheds. The variation in the performance of the IMERG Early could be partly explained by the number of rain gauges used in the reference IMERG Final product, as 16 rain gauges were used for the Millennium watershed but only one rain gauge over each Upper Atbara & Setit, and Khashm El Gibra watershed. A simple climatological bias-correction of IMERG Early reduces in the bias in IMERG Early over most watersheds, but not all watersheds. We recommend exploring methods to increase the performance of GFS forecasts, including post-processing techniques through the use of both near-real-time and research-version satellite rainfall products.

scholarly journals Sea ice led to poleward-shifted winds at the Last Glacial Maximum: the influence of state dependency on CMIP5 and PMIP3 models

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 2241-2253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise C. Sime ◽  
Dominic Hodgson ◽  
Thomas J. Bracegirdle ◽  
Claire Allen ◽  
Bianca Perren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Glacial Maximum ◽  
State Dependency ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
Future Warming ◽  
Ice Edge ◽  
Sea Ice Edge

Abstract. Latitudinal shifts in the Southern Ocean westerly wind jet could drive changes in the glacial to interglacial ocean CO2 inventory. However, whilst CMIP5 model results feature consistent future-warming jet shifts, there is considerable disagreement in deglacial-warming jet shifts. We find here that the dependence of pre-industrial (PI) to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) jet shifts on PI jet position, or state dependency, explains less of the shifts in jet simulated by the models for the LGM compared with future-warming scenarios. State dependence is also weaker for intensity changes, compared to latitudinal shifts in the jet. Winter sea ice was considerably more extensive during the LGM. Changes in surface heat fluxes, due to this sea ice change, probably had a large impact on the jet. Models that both simulate realistically large expansions in sea ice and feature PI jets which are south of 50° S show an increase in wind speed around 55° S and can show a poleward shift in the jet between the PI and the LGM. However, models with the PI jet positioned equatorwards of around 47° S do not show this response: the sea ice edge is too far from the jet for it to respond. In models with accurately positioned PI jets, a +1° difference in the latitude of the sea ice edge tends to be associated with a −0.85° shift in the 850 hPa jet. However, it seems that around 5° of expansion of LGM sea ice is necessary to hold the jet in its PI position. Since the Gersonde et al. (2005) data support an expansion of more than 5°, this result suggests that a slight poleward shift and intensification was the most likely jet change between the PI and the LGM. Without the effect of sea ice, models simulate poleward-shifted westerlies in warming climates and equatorward-shifted westerlies in colder climates. However, the feedback of sea ice counters and reverses the equatorward trend in cooler climates so that the LGM winds were more likely to have also been shifted slightly poleward.

scholarly journals Airborne observations and simulations of three-dimensional radiative interactions between Arctic boundary layer clouds and ice floes

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (14) ◽  
pp. 8147-8163 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Schäfer ◽  
E. Bierwirth ◽  
A. Ehrlich ◽  
E. Jäkel ◽  
M. Wendisch
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Radiative Transfer ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Radiative Effects ◽  
Arctic Boundary Layer ◽  
Boundary Layer Clouds ◽  
Ice Edge ◽  
Ice Floes

Abstract. Based on airborne spectral imaging observations, three-dimensional (3-D) radiative effects between Arctic boundary layer clouds and highly variable Arctic surfaces were identified and quantified. A method is presented to discriminate between sea ice and open water under cloudy conditions based on airborne nadir reflectivity γλ measurements in the visible spectral range. In cloudy cases the transition of γλ from open water to sea ice is not instantaneous but horizontally smoothed. In general, clouds reduce γλ above bright surfaces in the vicinity of open water, while γλ above open sea is enhanced. With the help of observations and 3-D radiative transfer simulations, this effect was quantified to range between 0 and 2200 m distance to the sea ice edge (for a dark-ocean albedo of αwater = 0.042 and a sea-ice albedo of αice = 0.91 at 645 nm wavelength). The affected distance Δ L was found to depend on both cloud and sea ice properties. For a low-level cloud at 0–200 m altitude, as observed during the Arctic field campaign VERtical Distribution of Ice in Arctic clouds (VERDI) in 2012, an increase in the cloud optical thickness τ from 1 to 10 leads to a decrease in Δ L from 600 to 250 m. An increase in the cloud base altitude or cloud geometrical thickness results in an increase in Δ L; for τ = 1/10 Δ L = 2200 m/1250 m in case of a cloud at 500–1000 m altitude. To quantify the effect for different shapes and sizes of ice floes, radiative transfer simulations were performed with various albedo fields (infinitely long straight ice edge, circular ice floes, squares, realistic ice floe field). The simulations show that Δ L increases with increasing radius of the ice floe and reaches maximum values for ice floes with radii larger than 6 km (500–1000 m cloud altitude), which matches the results found for an infinitely long, straight ice edge. Furthermore, the influence of these 3-D radiative effects on the retrieved cloud optical properties was investigated. The enhanced brightness of a dark pixel next to an ice edge results in uncertainties of up to 90 and 30 % in retrievals of τ and effective radius reff, respectively. With the help of Δ L, an estimate of the distance to the ice edge is given, where the retrieval uncertainties due to 3-D radiative effects are negligible.

scholarly journals Nonhomogeneous Boosting for Predictor Selection in Ensemble Postprocessing

2016 ◽  
Vol 145 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakob W. Messner ◽  
Georg J. Mayr ◽  
Achim Zeileis
Keyword(s):  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Important Input ◽  
Boosting Algorithm ◽  
Input Variables

Abstract Nonhomogeneous regression is often used to statistically postprocess ensemble forecasts. Usually only ensemble forecasts of the predictand variable are used as input, but other potentially useful information sources are ignored. Although it is straightforward to add further input variables, overfitting can easily deteriorate the forecast performance for increasing numbers of input variables. This paper proposes a boosting algorithm to estimate the regression coefficients, while automatically selecting the most relevant input variables by restricting the coefficients of less important variables to zero. A case study with ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows that this approach effectively selects important input variables to clearly improve minimum and maximum temperature predictions at five central European stations.

scholarly journals Sea-ice edge is more important than closer open water access for foraging Adélie penguins: evidence from two colonies

2020 ◽  
Vol 640 ◽  
pp. 215-230
Author(s):  
C Michelot ◽  
A Kato ◽  
T Raclot ◽  
K Shiomi ◽  
P Goulet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Gps Tracking ◽  
Ice Edge ◽  
Sea Ice Edge ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adélie Penguins

Sentinel species, like Adélie penguins, have been used to assess the impact of environmental changes, and their link with sea ice has received considerable attention. Here, we tested if foraging Adélie penguins from 2 colonies in East Antarctica target the distant sea-ice edge or take advantage of closer open waters that are readily available near their colony. We examined the foraging behaviour of penguins during the incubation trips of females in 2016 and males in 2017, using GPS tracking and diet data in view of daily sea-ice data and bathymetry. In 2016-2017, sea-ice cover was extensive during females’ trips but flaw leads and polynyas were close to both study sites. Sea ice receded rapidly during males’ trips in 2017-2018. Despite close open water near both colonies in both years, females and males preferentially targeted the continental slope and the sea-ice edge to forage. In addition, there was no difference in the diet of penguins from both colonies: all penguins fed mostly on Antarctic krill and males also foraged on Antarctic silverfish. Our results highlight the importance of the sea-ice edge for penguins, an area where food abundance is predictable. It is likely that resource availability was not sufficient in closer open water areas at such an early stage in the breeding season. The behaviours displayed by the penguins from both colonies were similar, suggesting a common behaviour across colonies in Terre Adélie, although additional sites would be necessary to confirm this hypothesis.

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