scholarly journals Spatial resolution of probabilistic forecasts and its impact on risk perception and precautionary action

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Gubernath ◽  
Nadine Fleischhut
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Spatial Uncertainty ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
High Loss ◽  
Perceptions Of Risk ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Precautionary Action ◽  
And Behavior

<p>In the context of probabilistic forecasting, low probabilities are known to be often underestimated by forecast users. This underestimation of low probabilities may have severe consequences, if people fail to take adequate precautions to protect against high-impact events like storms.<br>One solution is to communicate higher probabilities by lowering the forecasts’ spatial resolution: the lower the resolution, the higher the probability that the event will occur within the area. At the same time, a lower resolution entails more uncertainty about where exactly the event could occur. Thus, whereas a lower forecast resolution may heighten forecast users’ risk perception through larger probabilities, an increase in spatial uncertainty could reverse this effect. </p><p>In an online experiment, we investigate the effects of forecast resolution and spatial uncertainty on risk perception and precautionary decisions (N = 149). For 12 probabilistic thunderstorm forecasts, participants (i) entered how likely they believed their location would be hit by a thunderstorm, and (ii) decided whether to host an outdoor event at that location at a risk of a high loss or cancel in advance at a smaller cost (blocks randomized).</p><p>We find that a lower forecast resolution significantly reduced how likely participants believed to be hit and how often they chose to protect against thunderstorms. At the same time, higher forecast probabilities increased participants’ risk perception and likelihood to take precautionary action. Furthermore, the interpretations of the forecast’s spatial reference assessed in multiple choice formats were only a rough proxy for experimentally observed perceptions of risk.<br>The results constitute a starting point for investigating the trade-off between forecast probability and spatial uncertainty. They also reiterate that the spatial resolution forecasters choose for their products directly influence forecast users’ risk perception and behavior.</p>

scholarly journals Measuring HIV Risk Perception and Behavior: Results from Round 1 of the Cognitive Interviewing Project with young women and men who have sex with men in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (8) ◽  
pp. 2307-2318
Author(s):  
Jessica Milne ◽  
Hannah Brady ◽  
Thembekile Shato ◽  
Danielle Bohn ◽  
Makhosazana Mdladla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Young Women ◽  
Hiv Risk ◽  
Cognitive Interviewing ◽  
Hiv Risk Perception ◽  
Sex With Men ◽  
And Behavior

Information sources about face-to-face meetings with people from the Internet: Gendered influence on adolescents’ risk perception and behavior

2021 ◽  
pp. 146144482110148
Author(s):  
Vojtěch Mýlek ◽  
Lenka Dedkova ◽  
David Smahel
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
News Media ◽  
Information Sources ◽  
Female Adolescents ◽  
Male Adolescents ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Other Information ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Practical Recommendations

Adolescents commonly make new social connections online that sometimes result in face-to-face meetings. Despite potential benefits, risk-focused discourse dominates public debates and shapes information shared by sources important for adolescents—news media, preventive programs, peers, parents, and teachers. Our study examines how information about face-to-face meetings from these sources relates to adolescents’ risk perception and engagement in such meetings. Using a sample of 707 Czech adolescents (aged 11–16 years, 46% male), we analyzed these effects for male and female adolescents to reflect the gendered nature of the risk-focused discourse. Male adolescents’ risk perception was not affected by information from any source. Female adolescents’ risk perception was negatively affected by information peers with prior experience with face-to-face meetings but not by other information sources. Female adolescents also perceived face-to-face meetings as riskier in general. We discuss gender differences and the limited impact of information sources on risk perception and provide practical recommendations.

Risk perception and awareness of earthquake: the case of Dhaka

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Lutfur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Earthquake Preparedness ◽  
Level Of Knowledge ◽  
Seismic Risk Perception ◽  
The Many ◽  
And Behavior

Purpose Among the many studies about risk perception, only a few deal with Bangladesh. Paul and Bhuiyan’s (2010) study has shown the earthquake-preparedness level of residents of Dhaka, but there are some biases in the data collection. This paper aims to examine the seismic-risk perception and the level of knowledge on earthquake and preparedness among the residents of Dhaka. Design/methodology/approach A questionnaire was developed, and data collection was undertaken through home and sidewalk surveys. This paper investigates how attitude, perception and behavior differ depending on gender, age, education and casualty awareness. This research tries to examine and make a comparison of the risk perception and preparedness level between different groups of gender, age and level of education. Findings This research shows that female respondents have a much better risk perception of and are better prepared for earthquakes than male respondents; younger people have a higher knowledge about earthquake preparedness than older people and less-educated people are at a higher risk of unpreparedness than more-educated people. Research limitations/implications This research is only limited to the Dhaka Division. Originality/value This paper concludes by noting that public awareness on seismic-risk perception and mitigation is poor, and their knowledge on basic theory and emergency response must be improved.

Using Macrotexture Map to Visualize Texture Heterogeneity in Polycrystalline Aggregate

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Dongsheng Li
Keyword(s):  
Length Scale ◽  
Polycrystalline Aggregate ◽  
Performance Simulation ◽  
Orientation Imaging ◽  
Behavior Simulation ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Different Color ◽  
Large Length Scale ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Texture Characterization

Abstract A new tool, macrotexture map, was developed to represent and visualize texture heterogeneity in polycrystalline aggregate. This is a critical tool for microstructure representation, useful in risk analysis, performance simulation, and hotspot identification. In contrast to orientation imaging microscope (OIM) map where each color represents a crystal orientation, each color in this macrotexture map represents a texture. Different color represent different texture and similar texture shall have similar color. Macrotexture map provide a unique function to quantitatively evaluate texture heterogeneity of large components, leading to a first-hand understanding of property heterogeneity and anisotropy. For an experienced user, these maps serve the same purpose in identifying high risk locations in the investigated component as medical imaging maps do for diagnosis purpose. This method will also serve as a starting point in mesoscale simulation with meshing sensitivity based on the texture heterogeneity. It will provide a bridge between texture characterization and behavior simulation of components with texture heterogeneity. Macrotexture map will offer a linkage between crystal plasticity simulation in small length scale and finite element/difference simulation in large length scale.

scholarly journals Verification of Ensemble-Based Uncertainty Circles around Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 664-676 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thierry Dupont ◽  
Matthieu Plu ◽  
Philippe Caroff ◽  
Ghislain Faure
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Large Error ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Uncertainty Information

Abstract Several tropical cyclone forecasting centers issue uncertainty information with regard to their official track forecasts, generally using the climatological distribution of position error. However, such methods are not able to convey information that depends on the situation. The purpose of the present study is to assess the skill of the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) at measuring the uncertainty of up to 3-day track forecasts issued by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) La Réunion in the southwestern Indian Ocean. The dispersion of cyclone positions in the EPS is extracted and translated at the RSMC forecast position. The verification relies on existing methods for probabilistic forecasts that are presently adapted to a cyclone-position metric. First, the probability distribution of forecast positions is compared to the climatological distribution using Brier scores. The probabilistic forecasts have better scores than the climatology, particularly after applying a simple calibration scheme. Second, uncertainty circles are built by fixing the probability at 75%. Their skill at detecting small and large error values is assessed. The circles have some skill for large errors up to the 3-day forecast (and maybe after); but the detection of small radii is skillful only up to 2-day forecasts. The applied methodology may be used to assess and to compare the skill of different probabilistic forecasting systems of cyclone position.

scholarly journals Probabilistic forecasting of wind power production losses in cold climates: a case study

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 667-680 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennie Molinder ◽  
Heiner Körnich ◽  
Esbjörn Olsson ◽  
Hans Bergström ◽  
Anna Sjöblom
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Spatial Representation ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Cold Climates ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Production Losses

Abstract. The problem of icing on wind turbines in cold climates is addressed using probabilistic forecasting to improve next-day forecasts of icing and related production losses. A case study of probabilistic forecasts was generated for a 2-week period. Uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions are represented with an ensemble forecasting system, while uncertainties in the spatial representation are included with a neighbourhood method. Using probabilistic forecasting instead of one single forecast was shown to improve the forecast skill of the ice-related production loss forecasts and hence the icing forecasts. The spread of the multiple forecasts can be used as an estimate of the forecast uncertainty and of the likelihood for icing and severe production losses. Best results, both in terms of forecast skill and forecasted uncertainty, were achieved using both the ensemble forecast and the neighbourhood method combined. This demonstrates that the application of probabilistic forecasting for wind power in cold climates can be valuable when planning next-day energy production, in the usage of de-icing systems and for site safety.

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