scholarly journals Analysis and evaluation of the CORDEX simulations and derived extreme precipitation characteristics in European lowlands

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Berényi ◽  
Judit Bartholy ◽  
Rita Pongrácz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
East European Plain ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events

<p>As the effects of climate change become more severe, the possible shifts in precipitation patterns can cause severe natural hazards, such as extended drought periods, floods and flash floods, therefore, appropriate risk management is essential. The future adaptation strategies and decisions should definitely consider the results of physically-based climate model simulations, that is why the validation and analysis of these results play a key role in climate change issues.</p><p>            The main goal of this study is to analyse the spatio-temporal changes in main and extreme precipitation indices, and validate the Euro-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for the Euro-Mediterranean area) simulations from this specific point of view. For the evaluation and analysis, we use the current version of E-OBS database. Both the simulations and the database are available in a 0.11° grid with daily temporal resolution.</p><p>            Since plain regions play an important role in agricultural economy and are more exposed to floods due to their geographic features, our primary goals are (i) to examine temporal and spatial changes in extreme precipitation events, and (ii) to explore possible connections between the different lowlands across Europe. Altogether 14 plain regions were selected with an objective multi-step methodology where the selected plains have to fulfil several criteria.<em> </em>These target regions represent different climatic types within Europe and cover different geographical areas (e.g. near the sea, surrounded by mountains, etc.). More specifically, five plain regions are parts of the East European Plain, two regions are located in the Scandinavian basin, five regions are located in Western Europe, one in Southern Europe, and finally, the Pannonian Plain (including mostly Hungary) is also selected.</p><p>            To analyse and validate the simulations, we calculated 17 climate indices (most of them defined by the Expert Team of Climate Change Indices, ETCCD). These indices are capable to represent the differences and similarities between and within the plains, and measure the changes in the occurrence an intensity of main and extreme precipitation, the lack of precipitation, and dry spells. The validation results serve as a basis of selecting the most suitable simulations for subsequent analysis of extreme conditions predicted for lowlands within Europe under different future scenarios.</p>

The effect of climate change on urban drainage: an evaluation based on regional climate model simulations

2006 ◽  
Vol 54 (6-7) ◽  
pp. 9-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Grum ◽  
A.T. Jørgensen ◽  
R.M. Johansen ◽  
J.J. Linde
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Rainfall Extremes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precipitation Events

That we are in a period of extraordinary rates of climate change is today evident. These climate changes are likely to impact local weather conditions with direct impacts on precipitation patterns and urban drainage. In recent years several studies have focused on revealing the nature, extent and consequences of climate change on urban drainage and urban runoff pollution issues. This study uses predictions from a regional climate model to look at the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events. Results are presented in terms of point rainfall extremes. The analysis involves three steps: Firstly, hourly rainfall intensities from 16 point rain gauges are averaged to create a rain gauge equivalent intensity for a 25 × 25 km square corresponding to one grid cell in the climate model. Secondly, the differences between present and future in the climate model is used to project the hourly extreme statistics of the rain gauge surface into the future. Thirdly, the future extremes of the square surface area are downscaled to give point rainfall extremes of the future. The results and conclusions rely heavily on the regional model's suitability in describing extremes at time-scales relevant to urban drainage. However, in spite of these uncertainties, and others raised in the discussion, the tendency is clear: extreme precipitation events effecting urban drainage and causing flooding will become more frequent as a result of climate change.

Trend in precipitation and drought extremes in southern lowland regions of Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Berényi ◽  
Rita Pongrácz ◽  
Judit Bartholy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Subtropical Climate ◽  
Precipitation Patterns ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>The effects of climate change on precipitation patterns can be observed on global scale, however, global climate change affects different regions more or less severely. Because of the high variability of precipitation in particular, future changes related to precipitation can be very different, even opposite on continental/regional scale. Even within Europe, the detected trends in precipitation patterns and extremes differ across the continent. According to climate model simulations for the future, Northern Europe is projected to become wetter, while the southern parts of the continent will tend to become drier by the end of the 21st century. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation will also increase in the whole continent. The possible shifts in precipitation patterns from wetter to drier conditions with fewer but increased extreme precipitation events can cause severe natural hazards, such as extended drought periods, water scarcity, floods and flash floods, therefore appropriate risk management is essential. For this purpose the analysis of possible hazards associated to specific precipitation-related weather phenomena is necessary and serves as key input.</p><p>Since plain regions play an important role in agricultural economy and are more exposed to floods because of their geographic features and the gravitational movement of surface water, our primary goal was to examine temporal and spatial changes in extreme precipitation events and dry spells in three European lowlands, located in the southern part of the continent. We selected the following regions: the Po-Valley located in Italy with humid subtropical climate; the Romanian Plain in Romania, and the Pannonian Plain covering different parts of Hungary, Serbia, Slovakia, Croatia, Romania and Ukraine with humid continental climatic conditions.</p><p>Precipitation time series were used from the E-OBS v.22 dataset on a 0.1° regular grid. The dataset is based on station measurements from Europe and are available from 1950 onward with daily temporal resolution. For the analysis of main precipitation patterns, dry spells and extreme events, we use 17 climate indices (most of them are defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, ECCDI). The analysis focuses on annual and seasonal changes in the three regions. The selected indices are capable to represent the differences and similarities between and within the plains. Our preliminary results show that the occurrence and intensity of extreme precipitation events increased in all regions, while the trends of duration and frequency of dry spells show both intra- and inter regional variability across the plains.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 673-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Colmet-Daage ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Sophie Ricci ◽  
Cécile Llovel ◽  
Valérie Borrell Estupina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981–2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on the Frequency of Hydrometeorological Extremes in the Island of Crete

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evdokia Tapoglou ◽  
Anthi Vozinaki ◽  
Ioannis Tsanis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Frequency analysis on extreme hydrological and meteorological events under the effect of climate change is performed in the island of Crete. Data from Regional Climate Model simulations (RCMs) that follow three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are used in the analysis. The analysis was performed for the 1985–2100 time period, divided into three equal-duration time slices (1985–2010, 2025–2050, and 2075–2100). Comparison between the results from the three time slices for the different RCMs under different RCP scenarios indicate that drought events are expected to increase in the future. The meteorological and hydrological drought indices, relative Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff index (SRI), are used to identify the number of drought events for each RCM. Results from extreme precipitation, extreme flow, meteorological and hydrological drought frequency analysis over Crete show that the impact of climate change on the magnitude of 100 years return period extreme events will also increase, along with the magnitude of extreme precipitation and flow events.

Pedoclimatic comparison of three viticultural areas of Italy devoted to high-quality Aglianico and Cabernet Sauvignon production

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugenia Monaco ◽  
Roberto De Mascellis ◽  
Giuliana Barbato ◽  
Paola Mercogliano ◽  
Maurizio Buonanno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Cabernet Sauvignon ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Italian Regions ◽  
Berry Quality ◽  
Rcp 8.5

<p>In the Mediterranean area, the expected increase in temperature coupled with the decrease in rainfall, as well as the increase in the frequency of extreme events (heatwaves and drought, IPCC, 2019), will severely affect the survival of current vineyard areas. Cultivar thermal requirement and soil water availability could be not satisfied, leading to a limitation in yield and berry quality also due to constraints in the achievement of optimal grape maturity.</p><p>In this context, the understanding of how the spatial viticultural suitability will change under climate change is of primary interest in order to identify the best adaptation strategies to guarantee the resilience of current viticultural areas. Moreover, the improvement of knowledge of climate, soil, and their interaction for each specific cultivar will be fundamental because the terroir system is based on this interaction able to influence the plant status (e.g., water).</p><p>In this study, different pedo-climatic conditions (past, present, and future) in three Italian sites at different latitudes (from center to southern), were compared for two red varieties of grapevine: Aglianico (indigenous cv) and Cabernet Sauvignon (international cv).</p><p>Grapevine adaptation to future climate in each experimental farm in Campania, Molise, and Sicily Italian regions has been realized through the use of bioclimatic indexes (e.g., Amerine & Winkler for Aglianico 2110 GDD). The climatic evaluation was performed using Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM at high-resolution (8km x 8km) climate projections RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2010-2100) and Reference Climate (RC, 1971-2005).</p><p>Results have shown how climate change will affect the cultivation of Aglianico and Cabernet Sauvignon, considering both the climate and bioclimatic needs of cultivars themselves in the current viticultural areas.</p><p>Finally, coupled with the climatic evaluation, a pedological survey to characterize the soils, and the analysis of satellite images (Sentinel2 ) coupled with stemwood anatomical analysis has been performed to reconstruct the past eco-physiological behavior.</p>

scholarly journals Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 4517-4530 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. C. van Pelt ◽  
J. J. Beersma ◽  
T. A. Buishand ◽  
B. J. J. M. van den Hurk ◽  
P. Kabat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Rhine Basin ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks. In this study a relatively simple method has been developed to get a better description of the range of changes in extreme precipitation events. Five bias-corrected RCM simulations of the 1961–2100 climate for a single greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B SRES) were available for the Rhine basin. To increase the size of this five-member RCM ensemble, 13 additional GCM simulations were analysed. The climate responses of the GCMs are used to modify an observed (1961–1995) precipitation time series with an advanced delta change approach. Changes in the temporal means and variability are taken into account. It is found that the range of future change of extreme precipitation across the five-member RCM ensemble is similar to results from the 13-member GCM ensemble. For the RCM ensemble, the time series modification procedure also results in a similar climate response compared to the signal deduced from the direct model simulations. The changes from the individual RCM simulations, however, systematically differ from those of the driving GCMs, especially for long return periods.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact Assessment for Aji Basin Using Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 670-678 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. S Vithlani ◽  
H. D Rank
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Climate Projections

For the future projections Global climate models (GCMs) enable development of climate projections and relate greenhouse gas forcing to future potential climate states. When focusing it on smaller scales it exhibit some limitations to overcome this problem, regional climate models (RCMs) and other downscaling methods have been developed. To ensure statistics of the downscaled output matched the corresponding statistics of the observed data, bias correction was used. Quantify future changes of climate extremes were analyzed, based on these downscaled data from two RCMs grid points. Subset of indices and models, results of bias corrected model output and raw for the present day climate were compared with observation, which demonstrated that bias correction is important for RCM outputs. Bias correction directed agreements of extreme climate indices for future climate it does not correct for lag inverse autocorrelation and fraction of wet and dry days. But, it was observed that adjusting both the biases in the mean and variability, relatively simple non-linear correction, leads to better reproduction of observed extreme daily and multi-daily precipitation amounts. Due to climate change temperature and precipitation will increased day by day.

scholarly journals The hydrological response of the Ourthe catchment to climate change as modelled by the HBV model

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 7143-7178 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. L. A. Driessen ◽  
R. T. W. L. Hurkmans ◽  
W. Terink ◽  
P. Hazenberg ◽  
P. J. J. F. Torfs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Climate Model Output

Abstract. The Meuse is an important river in western Europe, and almost exclusively rain-fed. Projected changes in precipitation characteristics due to climate change, therefore, are expected to have a considerable effect on the hydrological regime of the river Meuse. We focus on an important tributary of the Meuse, the Ourthe, measuring about 1600 km2. The well-known hydrological model HBV is forced with three high-resolution (0.088°) regional climate scenarios, each based on one of three different IPCC CO2 emission scenarios: A1B, A2 and B1. To represent the current climate, a reference model run at the same resolution is used. Prior to running the hydrological model, the biases in the climate model output are investigated and corrected for. Different approaches to correct the distributed climate model output using single-site observations are compared. Correcting the spatially averaged temperature and precipitation is found to give the best results, but still large differences exist between observations and simulations. The bias corrected data are then used to force HBV. Results indicate a small increase in overall discharge for especially the B1 scenario during the beginning of the 21st century. Towards the end of the century, all scenarios show a decrease in summer discharge, partially because of the diminished buffering effect by the snow pack, and an increased discharge in winter. It should be stressed, however, that we used results from only one GCM (the only one available at such a high resolution). It would be interesting to repeat the analysis with multiple models.

scholarly journals Stochastic spatial disaggregation of extreme precipitation to validate a regional climate model and to evaluate climate change impacts over a small watershed

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 1695-1704 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Gagnon ◽  
A. N. Rousseau
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Small Watershed ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Spatial Disaggregation

Abstract. Regional climate models (RCMs) are valuable tools to evaluate impacts of climate change (CC) at regional scale. However, as the size of the area of interest decreases, the ability of a RCM to simulate extreme precipitation events decreases due to the spatial resolution. Thus, it is difficult to evaluate whether a RCM bias on localized extreme precipitation is caused by the spatial resolution or by a misrepresentation of the physical processes in the model. Thereby, it is difficult to trust the CC impact projections for localized extreme precipitation. Stochastic spatial disaggregation models can bring the RCM precipitation data at a finer scale and reduce the bias caused by spatial resolution. In addition, disaggregation models can generate an ensemble of outputs, producing an interval of possible values instead of a unique discrete value. The objective of this work is to evaluate whether a stochastic spatial disaggregation model applied on annual maximum daily precipitation (i) enables the validation of a RCM for a period of reference, and (ii) modifies the evaluation of CC impacts over a small area. Three simulations of the Canadian RCM (CRCM) covering the period 1961–2099 are used over a small watershed (130 km2) located in southern Québec, Canada. The disaggregation model applied is based on Gibbs sampling and accounts for physical properties of the event (wind speed, wind direction, and convective available potential energy – CAPE), leading to realistic spatial distributions of precipitation. The results indicate that disaggregation has a significant impact on the validation. However, it does not provide a precise estimate of the simulation bias because of the difference in resolution between disaggregated values (4 km) and observations, and because of the underestimation of the spatial variability by the disaggregation model for the most convective events. Nevertheless, disaggregation illustrates that the simulations used mostly overestimated annual maximum precipitation depth in the study area during the reference period. Also, disaggregation slightly increases the signal of CC compared to the RCM raw simulations, highlighting the importance of spatial resolution in CC impact evaluation of extreme events.

scholarly journals The hydrological response of the Ourthe catchment to climate change as modelled by the HBV model

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 651-665 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. L. A. Driessen ◽  
R. T. W. L. Hurkmans ◽  
W. Terink ◽  
P. Hazenberg ◽  
P. J. J. F. Torfs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Climate Model Output

Abstract. The Meuse is an important river in Western Europe, which is almost exclusively rain-fed. Projected changes in precipitation characteristics due to climate change, therefore, are expected to have a considerable effect on the hydrological regime of the river Meuse. We focus on an important tributary of the Meuse, the Ourthe, measuring about 1600 km2. The well-known hydrological model HBV is forced with three high-resolution (0.088°) regional climate scenarios, each based on one of three different IPCC CO2 emission scenarios: A1B, A2 and B1. To represent the current climate, a reference model run at the same resolution is used. Prior to running the hydrological model, the biases in the climate model output are investigated and corrected for. Different approaches to correct the distributed climate model output using single-site observations are compared. Correcting the spatially averaged temperature and precipitation is found to give the best results, but still large differences exist between observations and simulations. The bias corrected data are then used to force HBV. Results indicate a small increase in overall discharge, especially for the B1 scenario during the beginning of the 21st century. Towards the end of the century, all scenarios show a decrease in summer discharge, partially because of the diminished buffering effect by the snow pack, and an increased discharge in winter. It should be stressed, however, that we used results from only one GCM (the only one available at such a high resolution). It would be interesting to repeat the analysis with multiple models.

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