Trend in precipitation and drought extremes in southern lowland regions of Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Berényi ◽  
Rita Pongrácz ◽  
Judit Bartholy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Subtropical Climate ◽  
Precipitation Patterns ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>The effects of climate change on precipitation patterns can be observed on global scale, however, global climate change affects different regions more or less severely. Because of the high variability of precipitation in particular, future changes related to precipitation can be very different, even opposite on continental/regional scale. Even within Europe, the detected trends in precipitation patterns and extremes differ across the continent. According to climate model simulations for the future, Northern Europe is projected to become wetter, while the southern parts of the continent will tend to become drier by the end of the 21st century. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation will also increase in the whole continent. The possible shifts in precipitation patterns from wetter to drier conditions with fewer but increased extreme precipitation events can cause severe natural hazards, such as extended drought periods, water scarcity, floods and flash floods, therefore appropriate risk management is essential. For this purpose the analysis of possible hazards associated to specific precipitation-related weather phenomena is necessary and serves as key input.</p><p>Since plain regions play an important role in agricultural economy and are more exposed to floods because of their geographic features and the gravitational movement of surface water, our primary goal was to examine temporal and spatial changes in extreme precipitation events and dry spells in three European lowlands, located in the southern part of the continent. We selected the following regions: the Po-Valley located in Italy with humid subtropical climate; the Romanian Plain in Romania, and the Pannonian Plain covering different parts of Hungary, Serbia, Slovakia, Croatia, Romania and Ukraine with humid continental climatic conditions.</p><p>Precipitation time series were used from the E-OBS v.22 dataset on a 0.1° regular grid. The dataset is based on station measurements from Europe and are available from 1950 onward with daily temporal resolution. For the analysis of main precipitation patterns, dry spells and extreme events, we use 17 climate indices (most of them are defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, ECCDI). The analysis focuses on annual and seasonal changes in the three regions. The selected indices are capable to represent the differences and similarities between and within the plains. Our preliminary results show that the occurrence and intensity of extreme precipitation events increased in all regions, while the trends of duration and frequency of dry spells show both intra- and inter regional variability across the plains.</p>

The effect of climate change on urban drainage: an evaluation based on regional climate model simulations

2006 ◽  
Vol 54 (6-7) ◽  
pp. 9-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Grum ◽  
A.T. Jørgensen ◽  
R.M. Johansen ◽  
J.J. Linde
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Rainfall Extremes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precipitation Events

That we are in a period of extraordinary rates of climate change is today evident. These climate changes are likely to impact local weather conditions with direct impacts on precipitation patterns and urban drainage. In recent years several studies have focused on revealing the nature, extent and consequences of climate change on urban drainage and urban runoff pollution issues. This study uses predictions from a regional climate model to look at the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events. Results are presented in terms of point rainfall extremes. The analysis involves three steps: Firstly, hourly rainfall intensities from 16 point rain gauges are averaged to create a rain gauge equivalent intensity for a 25 × 25 km square corresponding to one grid cell in the climate model. Secondly, the differences between present and future in the climate model is used to project the hourly extreme statistics of the rain gauge surface into the future. Thirdly, the future extremes of the square surface area are downscaled to give point rainfall extremes of the future. The results and conclusions rely heavily on the regional model's suitability in describing extremes at time-scales relevant to urban drainage. However, in spite of these uncertainties, and others raised in the discussion, the tendency is clear: extreme precipitation events effecting urban drainage and causing flooding will become more frequent as a result of climate change.

scholarly journals Analysis and evaluation of the CORDEX simulations and derived extreme precipitation characteristics in European lowlands

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Berényi ◽  
Judit Bartholy ◽  
Rita Pongrácz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
East European Plain ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events

<p>As the effects of climate change become more severe, the possible shifts in precipitation patterns can cause severe natural hazards, such as extended drought periods, floods and flash floods, therefore, appropriate risk management is essential. The future adaptation strategies and decisions should definitely consider the results of physically-based climate model simulations, that is why the validation and analysis of these results play a key role in climate change issues.</p><p>            The main goal of this study is to analyse the spatio-temporal changes in main and extreme precipitation indices, and validate the Euro-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for the Euro-Mediterranean area) simulations from this specific point of view. For the evaluation and analysis, we use the current version of E-OBS database. Both the simulations and the database are available in a 0.11° grid with daily temporal resolution.</p><p>            Since plain regions play an important role in agricultural economy and are more exposed to floods due to their geographic features, our primary goals are (i) to examine temporal and spatial changes in extreme precipitation events, and (ii) to explore possible connections between the different lowlands across Europe. Altogether 14 plain regions were selected with an objective multi-step methodology where the selected plains have to fulfil several criteria.<em> </em>These target regions represent different climatic types within Europe and cover different geographical areas (e.g. near the sea, surrounded by mountains, etc.). More specifically, five plain regions are parts of the East European Plain, two regions are located in the Scandinavian basin, five regions are located in Western Europe, one in Southern Europe, and finally, the Pannonian Plain (including mostly Hungary) is also selected.</p><p>            To analyse and validate the simulations, we calculated 17 climate indices (most of them defined by the Expert Team of Climate Change Indices, ETCCD). These indices are capable to represent the differences and similarities between and within the plains, and measure the changes in the occurrence an intensity of main and extreme precipitation, the lack of precipitation, and dry spells. The validation results serve as a basis of selecting the most suitable simulations for subsequent analysis of extreme conditions predicted for lowlands within Europe under different future scenarios.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 673-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Colmet-Daage ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Sophie Ricci ◽  
Cécile Llovel ◽  
Valérie Borrell Estupina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981–2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Precipitation Extremities of Eastern Nepal in the Last Two Decades (1997–2016)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunil Subba ◽  
Yaoming Ma ◽  
Weiqiang Ma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>In recent days there have been discussions regarding the impact of climate change and its vagaries of the weather, particularly concerning extreme events. Nepal, being a mountainous country, is more susceptible to precipitation extreme events and related hazards, which hinder the socioeconomic<br>development of the nation. In this regard, this study aimed to address this phenomenon for one of the most naturally and socioeconomically important regions of Nepal, namely, Eastern Nepal. The data were collected for the period of 1997 to 2016. The interdecadal comparison for two periods<br>(1997–2006 and 2007–2016) was maintained for the calculation of extreme precipitation indices as per recommended by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Linear trends were calculated by using Mann‐Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator. The average annual precipitation was found to be decreasing at an alarming rate of −20 mm/year in the last two decades' tenure. In case of extreme precipitation events, consecutive dry days, one of the frequency indices, showed a solo increase in its trend (mostly significant). Meanwhile, all the intensity indices of extreme precipitation showed decreasing trends (mostly insignificant). Thus, it can be concluded that Eastern Nepal has witnessed some significant drier days in the last two decades, as the events of heavy, very heavy, extremely heavy precipitation events, and annual wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) were found to be decreasing. The same phenomena were also seen in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 V7 satellite precipitation product for whole Nepal.</p>

A Comparison of CMIP3 Simulations of Precipitation over North America with Observations: Daily Statistics and Circulation Features Accompanying Extreme Events

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 3209-3230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony M. DeAngelis ◽  
Anthony J. Broccoli ◽  
Steven G. Decker
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Climate model simulations of daily precipitation statistics from the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were evaluated against precipitation observations from North America over the period 1979–99. The evaluation revealed that the models underestimate the intensity of heavy and extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast, southeastern United States, and southern Mexico, and these biases are robust among the models. The models also overestimate the intensity of light precipitation events over much of North America, resulting in fairly realistic mean precipitation in many places. In contrast, heavy precipitation is simulated realistically over northern and eastern Canada, as is the seasonal cycle of heavy precipitation over a majority of North America. An evaluation of the simulated atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics associated with extreme precipitation events was also conducted using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The models were found to capture the large-scale physical mechanisms that generate extreme precipitation realistically, although they tend to overestimate the strength of the associated atmospheric circulation features. This suggests that climate model deficiencies such as insufficient spatial resolution, inadequate representation of convective precipitation, and overly smoothed topography may be more important for biases in simulated heavy precipitation than errors in the large-scale circulation during extreme events.

scholarly journals Meteorological Causes of the Secular Variations in Observed Extreme Precipitation Events for the Conterminous United States

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1131-1141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth E. Kunkel ◽  
David R. Easterling ◽  
David A. R. Kristovich ◽  
Byron Gleason ◽  
Leslie Stoecker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Extratropical Cyclone ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Secular Variations ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Daily extreme precipitation events, exceeding a threshold for a 1-in-5-yr occurrence, were identified from a network of 935 Cooperative Observer stations for the period of 1908–2009. Each event was assigned a meteorological cause, categorized as extratropical cyclone near a front (FRT), extratropical cyclone near center of low (ETC), tropical cyclone (TC), mesoscale convective system (MCS), air mass (isolated) convection (AMC), North American monsoon (NAM), and upslope flow (USF). The percentage of events ascribed to each cause were 54% for FRT, 24% for ETC, 13% for TC, 5% for MCS, 3% for NAM, 1% for AMC, and 0.1% for USF. On a national scale, there are upward trends in events associated with fronts and tropical cyclones, but no trends for other meteorological causes. On a regional scale, statistically significant upward trends in the frontal category are found in five of the nine regions. For ETCs, there are statistically significant upward trends in the Northeast and east north central. For the NAM category, the trend in the West is upward. The central region has seen an upward trend in events caused by TCs.

scholarly journals Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 4517-4530 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. C. van Pelt ◽  
J. J. Beersma ◽  
T. A. Buishand ◽  
B. J. J. M. van den Hurk ◽  
P. Kabat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Rhine Basin ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks. In this study a relatively simple method has been developed to get a better description of the range of changes in extreme precipitation events. Five bias-corrected RCM simulations of the 1961–2100 climate for a single greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B SRES) were available for the Rhine basin. To increase the size of this five-member RCM ensemble, 13 additional GCM simulations were analysed. The climate responses of the GCMs are used to modify an observed (1961–1995) precipitation time series with an advanced delta change approach. Changes in the temporal means and variability are taken into account. It is found that the range of future change of extreme precipitation across the five-member RCM ensemble is similar to results from the 13-member GCM ensemble. For the RCM ensemble, the time series modification procedure also results in a similar climate response compared to the signal deduced from the direct model simulations. The changes from the individual RCM simulations, however, systematically differ from those of the driving GCMs, especially for long return periods.

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