scholarly journals Uncertainties in the land-use flux resulting from land-use change reconstructions and gross land transitions

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anita D. Bayer ◽  
Mats Lindeskog ◽  
Thomas A. M. Pugh ◽  
Peter M. Anthoni ◽  
Richard Fuchs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ◽  
Soil C ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
C Stocks

Abstract. Land-use and land-cover (LUC) changes are a key uncertainty when attributing changes in measured atmospheric CO2 concentration to its sinks and sources and must also be much better understood to determine the possibilities for land-based climate change mitigation, especially in the light of human demand on other land-based resources. On the spatial scale typically used in terrestrial ecosystem models (0.5 or 1°) changes in LUC over time periods of a few years or more can include bidirectional changes on the sub-grid level, such as the parallel expansion and abandonment of agricultural land (e.g. in shifting cultivation) or cropland–grassland conversion (and vice versa). These complex changes between classes within a grid cell have often been neglected in previous studies, and only net changes of land between natural vegetation cover, cropland and pastures accounted for, mainly because of a lack of reliable high-resolution historical information on gross land transitions, in combination with technical limitations within the models themselves. In the present study we applied a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model with a detailed representation of croplands and carbon–nitrogen dynamics to quantify the uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes arising from the choice between net and gross representations of LUC. We used three frequently applied global, one recent global and one recent European LUC datasets, two of which resolve gross land transitions, either in Europe or in certain tropical regions. When considering only net changes, land-use-transition uncertainties (expressed as 1 standard deviation around decadal means of four models) in global carbon emissions from LUC (ELUC) are ±0.19, ±0.66 and ±0.47 Pg C a−1 in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively, or between 14 and 39 % of mean ELUC. Carbon stocks at the end of the 20th century vary by ±11 Pg C for vegetation and ±37 Pg C for soil C due to the choice of LUC reconstruction, i.e. around 3 % of the respective C pools. Accounting for sub-grid (gross) land conversions significantly increased the effect of LUC on global and European carbon stocks and fluxes, most noticeably enhancing global cumulative ELUC by 33 Pg C (1750–2014) and entailing a significant reduction in carbon stored in vegetation, although the effect on soil C stocks was limited. Simulations demonstrated that assessments of historical carbon stocks and fluxes are highly uncertain due to the choice of LUC reconstruction and that the consideration of different contrasting LUC reconstructions is needed to account for this uncertainty. The analysis of gross, in addition to net, land-use changes showed that the full complexity of gross land-use changes is required in order to accurately predict the magnitude of LUC change emissions. This introduces technical challenges to process-based models and relies on extensive information regarding historical land-use transitions.

scholarly journals Uncertainties in the land use flux resulting from land use change reconstructions and gross land transitions

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anita D. Bayer ◽  
Mats Lindeskog ◽  
Thomas A. M. Pugh ◽  
Richard Fuchs ◽  
Almut Arneth
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ◽  
Soil C ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
C Stocks

Abstract. Land-use and land-cover (LUC) changes are a key uncertainty when attributing changes in measured atmospheric CO2 concentration to its sinks and sources, and must also be much better understood to determine possibilities for land-based climate change mitigation, especially in the light of human demand on other land-based resources. On the spatial scale typically used in terrestrial ecosystem models (0.5 or 1 degrees) changes in LUC over time periods of a few years or more can include bi-directional changes on the sub-grid level, such as the parallel expansion and abandonment of agricultural land (e.g. in shifting cultivation), or cropland-grassland conversion (and vice versa). These complex changes between classes within a gridcell have often been neglected in previous studies, and only net changes of land between natural vegetation cover, cropland and pastures accounted for, mainly because of a lack of reliable high-resolution historical information on gross land transitions. In the present study we applied a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model with a detailed representation of croplands and carbon-nitrogen dynamics to quantify the uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes arising from the choice between net and gross representations of LUC. We used three frequently applied global and one recent European LUC datasets, two of which resolve gross land transitions, either in Europe or in tropical regions. When considering only net changes, land-use-transition uncertainties (expressed as one standard deviation around decadal means) in global carbon emissions from LUC (ELUC) are ±0.23, ±0.76 and ±0.49 Pg C a−1 in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively, or between 17 % and 42 % of mean ELUC. Carbon stocks at the end of the 20th century vary by ±13 Pg C for vegetation and ±41 Pg C for soil C due to the choice of LUC reconstruction, i.e. around 3 % of the respective C pools. Accounting for sub-grid (gross) land conversions significantly increased the effect of LUC on global and European carbon stocks and fluxes, most noticeably enhancing global cumulative ELUC by 33 Pg C (1750–2014) and entailing a significant reduction in carbon stored in vegetation, although the effect on soil C stocks was limited. Simulations demonstrated that assessments of historical carbon stocks and fluxes are highly uncertain due to the choice of LUC reconstruction and that the consideration of different contrasting LUC reconstructions is needed to account for this uncertainty. The analysis of gross in addition to net land changes showed that the full complexity of gross land-use changes is required in order to accurately predict the magnitude of LUC change emissions. This introduces technical challenges to the process-based models and relies on extensive information on historical land use transitions.

scholarly journals Effect of deforestation and subsequent land-use management on soil carbon stocks in the South American Chaco

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia Andrea Osinaga ◽  
Carina Rosa Álvarez ◽  
Miguel Angel Taboada
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Native Forest ◽  
Continuous Cropping ◽  
Organic C ◽  
Soil C ◽  
C Stocks ◽  
Chaco Region ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Abstract. The sub-humid Chaco region of Argentina, originally covered by dry sclerophyll forest, has been subjected to clearing since the end of the '70 and replacement of the forest by no till farming. Land use changes produced a decrease in aboveground carbon stored in forests, but little is known about the impact on soil organic C stocks. The aim of this study was to evaluate soil C stocks and C fractions up to 1 m depth in soils under different land use:  20 yr continuous cropping, warm season grass pasture and native forest in 32 sites distributed over the Chaco region. The organic C stock content up to 1 m depth expressed as equivalent mass varied as follows: forest (119.3 Mg ha−1) > pasture (87.9 Mg ha−1) > continuous cropping (71.9 and 77.3 Mg ha−1), with no impact of the number of years under cropping. The most sensitive organic carbon fraction was the coarse particle fraction (2000 μm–212 μm) at 0–5 cm and 5–20 cm depth layers. Resistant carbon (

Soil organic carbon stocks and flows in New Zealand: System development, measurement and modelling

2005 ◽  
Vol 85 (Special Issue) ◽  
pp. 481-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. R. Tate ◽  
R. H. Wilde ◽  
D. J. Giltrap ◽  
W. T. Baisden ◽  
S. Saggar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Steady State ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Soil Organic C ◽  
Organic C ◽  
Soil C ◽  
C Stocks ◽  
Stocks And Flows

An IPCC-based Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) was developed to monitor soil organic C stocks and flows to assist New Zealand to achieve its CO2 emissions reduction target under the Kyoto Protocol. Geo-referenced soil C data from 1158 sites (0.3 m depth) were used to assign steady-state soil C stocks to various combinations of soil class, climate, and land use. Overall, CMS soil C stock estimates are consistent with detailed, stratified soil C measurements at specific sites and over larger regions. Soil C changes accompanying land-use changes were quantified using a national set of land-use effects (LUEs). These were derived using a General Linear Model to include the effects of numeric predictors (e.g., slope angle). Major uncertainties a rise from estimates of changes in the areas involved, the assumption that soil C is at steady state for all land-cover types, and lack of soil C data for some LUEs. Total national soil organic C stocks estimated using the LUEs for 0–0.1, 0.1–0.3, and 0.3–1 m depths were 1300 ± 20, 1590 ± 30, and 1750 ± 70 Tg, respectively. Most soil C is stored in grazing lands (1480 ± 60 Tg to 0.3 m depth), which appear to be at or near steady state; their conversion to exotic forests and shrubland contributed most to the predicted national soil C loss of 0.6 ± 0.2 Tg C yr-1 during 1990–2000. Predicted and measured soil C changes for the grazing-forestry conversion agreed closely. Other uncertainties in our current soil CMS include: spatially integrated annual changes in soil C for the major land-use changes, lack of soil C change estimates below 0.3 m, C losses from erosion, the contribution of agricultural management of organic soils, and a possible interaction between land use and our soil-climate classification. Our approach could be adapted for use by other countries with land-use-change issues that differ from those in the IPCC default methodology. Key words: Soil organic carbon, land-use change, stocks, flows, measurement, modelling, IPCC

scholarly journals Changes in Coastal Agricultural Land Use in Response to Climate Change: An Assessment Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Household Survey Data in Tien Hai District, Thai Binh Province, Vietnam

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 627
Author(s):  
Duong H. Nong ◽  
An T. Ngo ◽  
Hoa P. T. Nguyen ◽  
Thuy T. Nguyen ◽  
Lan T. Nguyen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Agricultural Land Use ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Land Uses

We analyzed the agricultural land-use changes in the coastal areas of Tien Hai district, Thai Binh province, in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, using Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 data. We used the object-oriented classification method with the maximum likelihood algorithm to classify six types of land uses. The series of land-use maps we produced had an overall accuracy of more than 80%. We then conducted a spatial analysis of the 5-year land-use change using ArcGIS software. In addition, we surveyed 150 farm households using a structured questionnaire regarding the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity and land uses, as well as farmers’ adaptation and responses. The results showed that from 2005 to 2020, cropland decreased, while aquaculture land and forest land increased. We observed that the most remarkable decreases were in the area of rice (485.58 ha), the area of perennial crops (109.7 ha), and the area of non-agricultural land (747.35 ha). The area of land used for aquaculture and forest increased by 566.88 ha and 772.60 ha, respectively. We found that the manifestations of climate change, such as extreme weather events, saltwater intrusion, drought, and floods, have had a profound impact on agricultural production and land uses in the district, especially for annual crops and aquaculture. The results provide useful information for state authorities to design land-management strategies and solutions that are economic and effective in adapting to climate change.

Impacts of agricultural land use changes on pesticide use in French agriculture

2016 ◽  
Vol 80 ◽  
pp. 113-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Urruty ◽  
Tanguy Deveaud ◽  
Hervé Guyomard ◽  
Jean Boiffin
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Agricultural Land Use ◽  
Pesticide Use

scholarly journals Assessing the Opportunity Cost of Carbon Stock Caused by Land-Use Changes in Taiwan

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1240
Author(s):  
Ming-Yun Chu ◽  
Wan-Yu Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Opportunity Cost ◽  
Carbon Stock ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Market Price ◽  
The Government

As compared with conventional approaches for reducing carbon emissions, the strategies of reducing emissions from deforestations and forest degradation (REDD) can greatly reduce costs. Hence, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change regards the REDD strategies as a crucial approach to mitigate climate change. To respond to climate change, Taiwan passed the Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act to control the emissions of greenhouse gases. In 2021, the Taiwan government has announced that it will achieve the carbon neutrality target by 2050. Accordingly, starting with focusing on the carbon sink, the REDD strategies have been considered a recognized and feasible strategy in Taiwan. This study analyzed the net present value and carbon storage for various land-use types to estimate the carbon stock and opportunity cost of land-use changes. When the change of agricultural land to artificial forests generated carbon stock, the opportunity cost of carbon stock was negative. Contrarily, restoring artificial forests (which refer to a kind of forest that is formed through artificial planting, cultivation, and conservation) to agricultural land would generate carbon emissions, but create additional income. Since the opportunity cost of carbon storage needs to be lower than the carbon market price so that landlords have incentives to conduct REDD+, the outcomes of this study can provide a reference for the government to set an appropriate subsidy or price for carbon sinks. It is suggested that the government should offer sufficient incentives to reforest collapsed land, and implement interventions, promote carbon trading policies, or regulate the development of agricultural land so as to maintain artificial broadleaf forests for increased carbon storage.

scholarly journals Agro-forestry Systems as a Means to Achieve Carbon Co-benefits in Nepal

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-68
Author(s):  
Roshan M. Bajracharya ◽  
Him Lal Shrestha ◽  
Ramesh Shakya ◽  
Bishal K. Sitaula
Keyword(s):  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Properties ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Bulk Density ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Community Forests ◽  
C Stocks ◽  
Soil Carbon Stocks ◽  
Agro Forestry

Land management regimes and forest types play an important role in the productivity and accumulation of terrestrial carbon pools. While it is commonly accepted that forests enhance carbon sequestration and conventional agriculture causes carbon depletion, the effects of agro-forestry are not well documented. This study investigated the carbon stocks in biomass and soil, along with the selected soil properties in agro-forestry plots compared to community forests (CF) and upland farms in Chitwan, Gorkha and Rasuwa districts of Central Nepal during the year 2012-2013. We determined the total above ground biomass carbon, soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and soil properties (bulk density, organic carbon per cent, pH, total nitrogen (TN), available phosphorus (P), exchangeable potassium (K), and cation exchange capacity (CEC)) on samples taken from four replicates of 500 m2 plots each in community forests, agro-forestry systems and agricultural land. The soil was sampled in two increments at 0-15 cm and 15-30 cm depths and intact cores removed for bulk density and SOC determination, while loose samples were separately collected for the laboratory analysis of other soil properties. The mean SOC percent and corresponding soil carbon stocks to 30 cm depth were generally highest in CF (3.71 and 3.69 per cent, and 74.98 and 76.24 t ha-1, respectively), followed by leasehold forest (LHF) (2.26 and 1.13 per cent and 40.72 and 21.34 t ha-1, respectively) and least in the agricultural land (3.05 and 1.09 per cent, and 63.54 and 19.42 t ha-1, respectively). This trend was not, however, observed in Chitwan, where agriculture (AG) had the highest SOC content (1.98 per cent) and soil carbon stocks (42.5 t ha-1), followed by CF (1.8 per cent and 41.2 t ha-1) and leasehold forests (1.56 per cent and 35.3 t ha-1) although the differences were not statistically significant. Other soil properties were not significantly different among land use types with the exceptions of pH, total N, available P and CEC in the Chitwan plots. Typically, SOC and soil carbon stocks (to 30cm depth) were positively correlated with each other and with TN and CEC. The AGB-C was expectantly highest in Rasuwa district CF (ranging from 107.3 to 260.3 t ha-1) due to dense growth and cool climate, followed by Gorkha (3.1 to 118.4 t ha-1), and least in Chitwan (17.6 to 95.2 t ha-1). The highest C stocks for agro-forestry systems in both above ground and soil were observed in Rasuwa, followed by Chitwan district. Besides forests, agro-forestry systems also hold good potential to store and accumulate carbon, hence they have scope for contributing to climate change mitigation and adaptation with co-benefits.Journal of Forest and Livelihood 13(1) May, 2015, page: 56-68

Land use changes the soil carbon stocks, microbial biomass and fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) in Brazilian semiarid area

2018 ◽  
Vol 65 (6) ◽  
pp. 755-769 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uemeson José Dos Santos ◽  
Erika Valente De Medeiros ◽  
Gustavo Pereira Duda ◽  
Marise Conceição Marques ◽  
Eduardo Soares de Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Fatty Acid ◽  
Methyl Ester ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Acid Methyl Ester ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Semiarid Area ◽  
Acid Methyl ◽  
Brazilian Semiarid ◽  
Soil Carbon Stocks

Agriculture in the Boreal Forest: Understanding the Impact of Land Use Change on Soil Carbon for Developing Sustainable Community Food Systems 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Bysouth ◽  
Merritt Turetsky ◽  
Andrew Spring
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Food Systems ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Soil Carbon Stocks ◽  
Carbon Losses

<p>Climate change is causing rapid warming at northern high latitudes and disproportionately affecting ecosystem services that northern communities rely upon. In Canada’s Northwest Territories (NWT), climate change is impacting the access and availability of traditional foods that are critical for community health and well-being. With climate change potentially expanding the envelope of suitable agricultural land northward, many communities in the NWT are evaluating including agriculture in their food systems. However, the conversion of boreal forest to agriculture may degrade the carbon rich soils that characterize the region, resulting in large carbon losses to the atmosphere and the depletion of existing ecosystem services associated with the accumulation of soil organic matter. Here, we first summarize the results of 35 publications that address land use change from boreal forest to agriculture, with the goal of understanding the magnitude and drivers of carbon stock changes with time-since-land use change. Results from the literature synthesis show that conversion of boreal forest to agriculture can result in up to ~57% of existing soil carbon stocks being lost 30 years after land use change occurs. In addition, a three-way interaction with soil carbon, pH and time-since-land use change is observed where soils become more basic with increasing time-since-land use change, coinciding with declines in soil carbon stocks. This relationship is important when looking at the types of crops communities are interested in growing and the type of agriculture associated with cultivating these crops. Partnered communities have identified crops such as berry bushes, root vegetables, potatoes and corn as crops they are interested in growing. As berry bushes grow in acidic conditions and the other mentioned crops grow in more neutral conditions, site selection and management practices associated with growing these crops in appropriate pH environments will be important for managing soil carbon in new agricultural systems in the NWT. Secondly, we also present community scale soil data assessing variation in soil carbon stocks in relation to potential soil fertility metrics targeted to community identified crops of interest for two communities in the NWT.  We collected 192 soil cores from two communities to determine carbon stocks along gradients of potential agriculture suitability. Our field soil carbon measurements in collaboration with the partnered NWT communities show that land use conversions associated with agricultural development could translate to carbon losses ranging from 2.7-11.4 kg C/m<sup>2</sup> depending on the type of soil, agricultural suitability class, and type of land use change associated with cultivation. These results highlight the importance of managing soil carbon in northern agricultural systems and can be used to emphasize the need for new community scale data relating to agricultural land use change in boreal soils. Through the collection of this data, we hope to provide northern communities with a more robust, community scale product that will allow them to make informed land use decisions relating to the cultivation of crops and the minimization of soil carbon losses while maintaining the culturally important traditional food system.</p>

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