Evaluation of a unique approach to high-resolution climate modeling using the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 5.1

Abstract. We present multi-seasonal simulations representative of present-day and future environments using the global Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 5.1 with high resolution (15 km) throughout the Northern Hemisphere. We select 10 simulation years with varying phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and integrate each for 14.5 months. We use analyzed sea surface temperature (SST) patterns for present-day simulations. For the future climate simulations, we alter present-day SSTs by applying monthly-averaged temperature changes derived from a 20-member ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) following the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. Daily sea ice fields, obtained from the monthly-averaged CMIP5 ensemble mean sea ice, are used for present-day and future simulations. The present-day simulations provide a reasonable reproduction of large-scale atmospheric features in the Northern Hemisphere such as the wintertime midlatitude storm tracks, upper-tropospheric jets, and maritime sea-level pressure features as well as annual precipitation patterns across the tropics. The simulations also adequately represent tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics such as strength, spatial distribution, and seasonal cycles for most Northern Hemisphere basins. These results demonstrate the applicability of these model simulations for future studies examining climate change effects on various Northern Hemisphere phenomena, and, more generally, the utility of MPAS-A for studying climate change at spatial scales generally unachievable in GCMs.

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Evaluation of a Unique Approach to High-Resolution Climate Modelling using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) version 5.1

10.5194/gmd-2019-34 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Allison C. Michaelis ◽

Gary M. Lackmann ◽

Walter A. Robinson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Sea Ice ◽

Northern Hemisphere ◽

General Circulation ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Climate Modelling ◽

Northern Hemispheric

Abstract. We present multi-seasonal simulations representative of present-day and future thermodynamic environments using the global Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS) version 5.1 with high resolution (15 km) throughout the Northern Hemisphere. We select ten simulation years with varying phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and integrate each for 14.5 months. We use analysed sea surface temperature (SST) patterns for present-day simulations. For the future climate simulations, we alter present-day SSTs by applying monthly-averaged temperature changes derived from a 20-member ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) following the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. Daily sea ice fields, obtained from the monthly-averaged CMIP5 ensemble mean sea ice, are used for present-day and future simulations. The present-day simulations provide a reasonable reproduction of large-scale atmospheric features in the Northern Hemisphere such as the wintertime midlatitude storm tracks, upper-tropospheric jets, and maritime sea-level pressure features as well as annual precipitation patterns across the tropics. The simulations also adequately represent tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics such as strength, spatial distribution, and seasonal cycles for most of Northern Hemispheric basins. These results demonstrate the applicability of these model simulations for future studies examining climate change effects on various Northern Hemispheric phenomena, and, more generally, the utility of MPAS for studying climate change at spatial scales generally unachievable in GCMs.

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Global monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice reconstruction for historical simulations

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8744 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Eric Samakinwa ◽

Stefan Brönnimann

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Sea Surface Temperature ◽

General Circulation ◽

Large Scale ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Annual Variability ◽

Instrumental Records

Variability in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is one of the prime sources of intra-annual variability, and also an important boundary condition for Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs). In many AGCM simulations, SST and Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) are prescribed. While SSTs are specified according to observations available in recent period of instrumental records (1850 &#8211; present), SIC depends on climatological averages with less variability prior to the inception of satellite measurements. This limits our understanding of large-scale climate variations in the past.In this study, we augment multi-proxy reconstructed annual mean temperature of Neukom et al. (2019) with intra-annual variability from HadISST (v2.0), for 850 years (1000 &#8211; 1849). Intra-seasonal variability, such as the phase-locking of El-Nino Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole and Tropical Atlantic SST indices to annual-cycle, are utilized. The intra-annual component of HadISST and SST indices estimated from the multi-proxy reconstructed annual mean, are used to develop grid-based multivariate linear regression models using the Frisch-Waugh-Lovell theorem, in a monthly stratified approach. Furthermore, we introduce a scaling technique to ensure homogeneous mean and variance, similar to that of the target. SST observations obtained from ship measurements by ICOADS before 1850, will be integrated in an off-line data assimilation approach.Similarly, we reconstruct SIC via analogue resampling of HadISST SIC (1941 &#8211; 2000), for both hemispheres. We pool our analogues in four seasons, comprising of 3 months each, such that for each month within a season, there are 180 possible analogues. The best analogues are selected based on correlation coefficients between reconstructed SST and its target.

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High-Resolution Solar Climate Atlas for Greece under Climate Change Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11070761 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (7) ◽

pp. 761 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Theodoros Katopodis ◽

Iason Markantonis ◽

Nadia Politi ◽

Diamando Vlachogiannis ◽

Athanasios Sfetsos

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Energy Demand ◽

General Circulation ◽

Wrf Model ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Weather Research And Forecasting ◽

Clear Sky ◽

The Future ◽

Weather Research

In the context of climate change and growing energy demand, solar technologies are considered promising solutions to mitigate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and support sustainable adaptation. In Greece, solar power is the second major renewable energy, constituting an increasingly important component of the future low-carbon energy portfolio. In this work, we propose the use of a high-resolution regional climate model (Weather Research and Forecasting model, WRF) to generate a solar climate atlas for the near-term climatological future under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The model is set up with a 5 × 5 km2 spatial resolution, forced by the ERA-INTERIM for the historic (1980–2004) period and by the EC-EARTH General Circulation Models (GCM) for the future (2020–2044). Results reaffirm the high quality of solar energy potential in Greece and highlight the ability of the WRF model to produce a highly reliable future climate solar atlas. Projected changes between the annual historic and future RCPs scenarios indicate changes of the annual Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) in the range of ±5.0%. Seasonal analysis of the GHI values indicates percentage changes in the range of ±12% for both scenarios, with winter exhibiting the highest seasonal increases in the order of 10%, and autumn the largest decreases. Clear-sky fraction fclear projects increases in the range of ±4.0% in eastern and north continental Greece in the future, while most of the Greek marine areas might expect above 220 clear-sky days per year.

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Bias-corrected climate projections for South Asia from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6

Scientific Data ◽

10.1038/s41597-020-00681-1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Vimal Mishra ◽

Udit Bhatia ◽

Amar Deep Tiwari

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Impact Assessment ◽

South Asia ◽

General Circulation ◽

Coupled Model ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

River Basins ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Intercomparison Project

Abstract Climate change is likely to pose enormous challenges for agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and livelihood of millions of people living in South Asia. Here, we develop daily bias-corrected data of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures at 0.25° spatial resolution for South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka) and 18 river basins located in the Indian sub-continent. The bias-corrected dataset is developed using Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) for the historic (1951–2014) and projected (2015–2100) climate for the four scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) using output from 13 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6). The bias-corrected dataset was evaluated against the observations for both mean and extremes of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures. Bias corrected projections from 13 CMIP6-GCMs project a warmer (3–5°C) and wetter (13–30%) climate in South Asia in the 21st century. The bias-corrected projections from CMIP6-GCMs can be used for climate change impact assessment in South Asia and hydrologic impact assessment in the sub-continental river basins.

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Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-6-1383-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 6 (6) ◽

pp. 1383-1394 ◽

Cited By ~ 158

Author(s):

F. Massonnet ◽

T. Fichefet ◽

H. Goosse ◽

C. M. Bitz ◽

G. Philippon-Berthier ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

General Circulation ◽

Thickness Distribution ◽

Coupled Model ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Volume Characteristics

Abstract. We examine the recent (1979–2010) and future (2011–2100) characteristics of the summer Arctic sea ice cover as simulated by 29 Earth system and general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5). As was the case with CMIP3, a large intermodel spread persists in the simulated summer sea ice losses over the 21st century for a given forcing scenario. The 1979–2010 sea ice extent, thickness distribution and volume characteristics of each CMIP5 model are discussed as potential constraints on the September sea ice extent (SSIE) projections. Our results suggest first that the future changes in SSIE with respect to the 1979–2010 model SSIE are related in a complicated manner to the initial 1979–2010 sea ice model characteristics, due to the large diversity of the CMIP5 population: at a given time, some models are in an ice-free state while others are still on the track of ice loss. However, in phase plane plots (that do not consider the time as an independent variable), we show that the transition towards ice-free conditions is actually occurring in a very similar manner for all models. We also find that the year at which SSIE drops below a certain threshold is likely to be constrained by the present-day sea ice properties. In a second step, using several adequate 1979–2010 sea ice metrics, we effectively reduce the uncertainty as to when the Arctic could become nearly ice-free in summertime, the interval [2041, 2060] being our best estimate for a high climate forcing scenario.

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Impacts of regional climate and teleconnection on hydrological change in the Bosten Lake Basin, arid region of northwestern China

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2017.140 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 74-88 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Huaijun Wang ◽

Yingping Pan ◽

Yaning Chen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Large Scale ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Polar Vortex ◽

Circulation Index ◽

Lake Basin ◽

Area Index ◽

Bosten Lake

Abstract This investigation examined effects of climate change, measured as annual, seasonal, and monthly air temperature and precipitation from 1958 to 2010, on water resources (i.e., runoff) in the Bosten Lake Basin. Additionally, teleconnections of hydrological changes to large-scale circulation indices including El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Tibetan High (XZH), westerly circulation index (WI), and northern hemisphere polar vortex area index (VPA) were analyzed in our study. The results showed the following. (1) Annual and seasonal air temperature increased significantly in the Bosten Lake Basin. Precipitation exhibited an increasing trend, while the significance was less than that of temperature. Abrupt changes were observed in 1996 in mountain temperature and in 1985 in plain temperature. (2) Runoff varied in three stages, decreasing before 1986, increasing from 1987 to 2003, and decreasing after 2003. (3) Precipitation and air temperature have significant impacts on runoff. The hydrological processes in the Bosten Lake Basin were (statistically) significantly affected by the northern hemisphere polar vortex area index (VPA) and the Tibetan High (XZH). The results of this study are good indicators of local climate change, which can enhance human mitigation of climate warming in the Bosten Lake Basin.

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Estimation of hydrological response to future climate change in a cold watershed

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2018.026 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 78-88 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jian Sha ◽

Zhong-Liang Wang ◽

Yue Zhao ◽

Yan-Xue Xu ◽

Xue Li

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Water System ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Research Station ◽

Hydrological Process

Abstract The vulnerability of the natural water system in cold areas to future climate change is of great concern. A coupled model approach was applied in the headwater watershed area of Yalu River in the northeastern part of China to estimate the response of hydrological processes to future climate change with moderate data. The stochastic Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator was used to downscale the results of general circulation models to generate synthetic daily weather series in the 2050s and 2080s under various projected scenarios, which were applied as input data of the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions hydrological model for future hydrological process estimations. The results showed that future wetter and hotter weather conditions would have positive impacts on the watershed runoff yields but negative impacts on the watershed groundwater flow yields. The freezing period in winter would be shortened with earlier snowmelt peaks in spring. These would result in less snow cover in winter and shift the monthly allocations of streamflow with more yields in March but less in April and May, which should be of great concern for future local management. The proposed approach of the coupled model application is effective and can be used in other similar areas.

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Nearest Neighbor–Genetic Algorithm for Downscaling of Climate Change Data from GCMs

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology ◽

10.1175/jamc-d-15-0100.1 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 55 (3) ◽

pp. 773-789

Author(s):

Soojun Kim ◽

Jaewon Kwak ◽

Hung Soo Kim ◽

Younghun Jung ◽

Gilho Kim

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Genetic Algorithm ◽

General Circulation ◽

Nearest Neighbor ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Temporal Correlation ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Temperature Fields ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Limited Applicability

AbstractThe spatial and temporal resolution of readily available climate change projections from general circulation models (GCM) has limited applicability. Consequently, several downscaling methods have been developed. These methods predominantly focus on a single meteorological series at specific sites. Spatial and temporal correlation of the precipitation and temperature fields is important for hydrologic applications. This research uses a nearest neighbor–genetic algorithm (NN–GA) method to analyze the Namhan River basin in the Korean Peninsula. Using the simulation results of the CNRM-CM for the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, archived in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the GCM projections are downscaled through the NN–GA. The NN–GA simulations reproduce the features of the observed series in terms of site statistics as well as across variables and sites.

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Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice

The Cryosphere Discussions ◽

10.5194/tcd-6-2931-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 6 (4) ◽

pp. 2931-2959 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

F. Massonnet ◽

T. Fichefet ◽

H. Goosse ◽

C. M. Bitz ◽

G. Philippon-Berthier ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

General Circulation ◽

Thickness Distribution ◽

Coupled Model ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Arctic Sea Ice ◽

The Arctic ◽

Sea Ice Extent ◽

Arctic Sea ◽

Volume Characteristics

Abstract. We examine the recent (1979–2010) and future (2011–2100) characteristics of the summer Arctic sea ice cover as simulated by 29 Earth system and general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5). As was the case with CMIP3, a large inter-model spread persists in the simulated summer sea ice losses over the 21st century for a given forcing scenario. The initial 1979–2010 sea ice properties (including the sea ice extent, thickness distribution and volume characteristics) of each CMIP5 model are discussed as potential constraints on the September sea ice extent (SSIE) projections. Our results suggest first that the SSIE anomalies (compared to the 1979–2010 model SSIE) are related in a complicated manner to the initial 1979–2010 sea ice model characteristics, due to the large diversity of the CMIP5 population (at a given time, some models are in an ice-free state while others are still on the track of ice loss). In a new diagram (that does not consider the time as an independent variable) we show that the transition towards ice-free conditions is actually occuring in a very similar manner for all models. For these reasons, some quantities that do not explicitly depend on time, such as the year at which SSIE drops below a certain threshold, are likely to be constrained. In a second step, using several adequate 1979–2010 sea ice metrics, we effectively reduce the uncertainty as to when the Arctic could become nearly ice-free in summertime (between 2041 and 2060 for a high climate forcing scenario).

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Fast responses on pre-industrial climate from present-day aerosols in a CMIP6 multi-model study

10.5194/acp-2019-1201 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Prodromos Zanis ◽

Dimitris Akritidis ◽

Aristeidis K. Georgoulias ◽

Robert J. Allen ◽

Susanne E. Bauer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

General Circulation ◽

Coupled Model ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

The Arctic ◽

Model Study ◽

Southward Shift ◽

Temperature Responses ◽

Circulation Changes

Abstract. In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth System Models (ESMs) and General Circulation Models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations; a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014. In response to the pattern of all aerosols effective radiative forcing (ERF), the fast temperature responses are characterised by cooling over the continental areas, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, with the largest cooling over East Asia and India, sulfate being the dominant aerosol surface temperature driver for present-day emissions. In the Arctic there is a warming signal for winter in the ensemble mean of fast temperature responses, but the model-to-model variability is large, and it is presumably linked to aerosol induced circulation changes. The largest fast precipitation responses are seen in the tropical belt regions, generally characterized by a reduction over continental regions and a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. This is a characteristic and robust feature among most models in this study, associated with a southward shift of the Intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and a weakening of the monsoon systems around the globe (Asia, Africa and America) in response to hemispherically asymmetric cooling from a Northern Hemisphere aerosol perturbation, leading the ITCZ and tropical precipitation to shift away from the cooled hemispheric pattern. An interesting feature in aerosol induced circulation changes is a characteristic dipole pattern with intensification of the Icelandic Low and an anticyclonic anomaly over Southeastern Europe, inducing warm air advection towards the northern polar latitudes in winter.

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