scholarly journals ISSM-SLPS: geodetically compliant Sea-Level Projection System for the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model v4.17

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 4925-4941
Author(s):  
Eric Larour ◽  
Lambert Caron ◽  
Mathieu Morlighem ◽  
Surendra Adhikari ◽  
Thomas Frederikse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
System Model ◽  
Level System ◽  
Projection System ◽  
Forward Models ◽  
And Sea Level

Abstract. Understanding future impacts of sea-level rise at the local level is important for mitigating its effects. In particular, quantifying the range of sea-level rise outcomes in a probabilistic way enables coastal planners to better adapt strategies, depending on cost, timing and risk tolerance. For a time horizon of 100 years, frameworks have been developed that provide such projections by relying on sea-level fingerprints where contributions from different processes are sampled at each individual time step and summed up to create probability distributions of sea-level rise for each desired location. While advantageous, this method does not readily allow for including new physics developed in forward models of each component. For example, couplings and feedbacks between ice sheets, ocean circulation and solid-Earth uplift cannot easily be represented in such frameworks. Indeed, the main impediment to inclusion of more forward model physics in probabilistic sea-level frameworks is the availability of dynamically computed sea-level fingerprints that can be directly linked to local mass changes. Here, we demonstrate such an approach within the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM), where we develop a probabilistic framework that can readily be coupled to forward process models such as those for ice sheets, glacial isostatic adjustment, hydrology and ocean circulation, among others. Through large-scale uncertainty quantification, we demonstrate how this approach enables inclusion of incremental improvements in all forward models and provides fidelity to time-correlated processes. The projection system may readily process input and output quantities that are geodetically consistent with space and terrestrial measurement systems. The approach can also account for numerous improvements in our understanding of sea-level processes.

scholarly journals ISSM-SLPS: geodetically compliant Sea-Level Projection System for the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model v4.17

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Larour ◽  
Surendra Adhikari ◽  
Thomas Frederikse ◽  
Lambert Caron ◽  
Benjamin Hamlington ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
System Model ◽  
Level System ◽  
Projection System ◽  
Forward Models ◽  
And Sea Level

Abstract. Understanding future impacts of sea-level rise at the local level is paramount to mitigating its effects. In particular, quantifying the range of sea-level rise outcomes in a probabilistic way enables coastal planners to better adapt strategies, depending on cost and timing. For long-term projections, from present-day to the end of the 21st century, frameworks have been developed that provide such probabilistic projections. They rely on sea-level fingerprints where contributions from different processes are sampled at each individual time step and summed up to create probability distributions of sea-level rise for each desired location. While advantageous, this method does not readily allow for including new physics developed in forward models of each component. For example, couplings and feedbacks between ice sheets, ocean circulation, and solid-Earth uplift cannot easily be represented in such frameworks. Indeed, the main impediment to inclusion of more forward model physics in probabilistic sea-level frameworks is the availability of dynamically computed sea-level fingerprints that can be directly linked to local mass changes. Here, we demonstrate such an approach within the Ice-Sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM), where we develop a probabilistic framework that can readily be coupled to forward process models such as those for ice sheets, glacial-isostatic adjustment, hydrology and ocean circulation, among others. Through large scale uncertainty quantification, we demonstrate how this approach enables inclusion of incremental improvements in all forward models and provides fidelity to time-correlated processes. The projection system may readily process input and output quantities that are geodetically consistent with space and terrestrial measurement systems. The approach can also account for numerous improvements in our understanding of sea-level processes.

scholarly journals Layered seawater intrusion and melt under grounded ice

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander A. Robel ◽  
Earle Wilson ◽  
Helene Seroussi
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Seawater Intrusion ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
System Model ◽  
Glacier Terminus ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Flow Through ◽  
And Sea Level

Abstract. Increasing melt of ice sheets at their floating or vertical interface with the ocean is a major driver of marine ice sheet retreat and sea level rise. However, the extent to which warm, salty seawater may drive melting under the grounded portions of ice sheets is still not well understood. Previous work has explored the possibility that dense seawater intrudes beneath relatively light subglacial freshwater discharge, similar to the salt wedge observed in many estuarine systems. In this study, we develop a generalized theory of layered seawater intrusion under grounded ice, including where subglacial hydrology occurs as a macroporous water sheet over impermeable beds or as microporous Darcy flow through permeable till. Using predictions from this theory, we show that seawater intrusion over hard beds may feasibly occur up to tens of kilometers upstream of a glacier terminus or grounding line. On the other hand, seawater is unlikely to intrude more than tens of meters through subglacial till. High-resolution simulations using the Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System Model (ISSM) show that even just a few hundred meters of basal melt caused by seawater intrusion upstream of marine ice sheet grounding lines can cause projections of marine ice sheet volume loss to be 10–50 % higher or 100 % higher for kilometers of intrusion-induced basal melt. These results suggest that further observational, experimental and numerical investigations are needed to determine whether the conditions under which extensive seawater intrusion occurs and whether it will indeed drive rapid marine ice sheet retreat and sea level rise in the future.

scholarly journals Extended enthalpy formulations in the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) version 4.17: discontinuous conductivity and anisotropic streamline upwind Petrov–Galerkin (SUPG) method

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 4491-4501
Author(s):  
Martin Rückamp ◽  
Angelika Humbert ◽  
Thomas Kleiner ◽  
Mathieu Morlighem ◽  
Helene Seroussi
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
System Model ◽  
Level System ◽  
Aspect Ratios ◽  
3D Elements ◽  
Supg Method ◽  
Ice Sheet Modelling ◽  
And Sea Level

Abstract. The thermal state of an ice sheet is an important control on its past and future evolution. Some parts of the ice sheet may be polythermal, leading to discontinuous properties at the cold–temperate transition surface (CTS). These discontinuities require a careful treatment in ice sheet models (ISMs). Additionally, the highly anisotropic geometry of the 3D elements in ice sheet modelling poses a problem for stabilization approaches in advection-dominated problems. Here, we present extended enthalpy formulations within the finite-element Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System model (ISSM) that show a better performance than earlier implementations. In a first polythermal-slab experiment, we found that the treatment of the discontinuous conductivities at the CTS with a geometric mean produces more accurate results compared to the arithmetic or harmonic mean. This improvement is particularly efficient when applied to coarse vertical resolutions. In a second ice dome experiment, we find that the numerical solution is sensitive to the choice of stabilization parameters in the well-established streamline upwind Petrov–Galerkin (SUPG) method. As standard literature values for the SUPG stabilization parameter do not account for the highly anisotropic geometry of the 3D elements in ice sheet modelling, we propose a novel anisotropic SUPG (ASUPG) formulation. This formulation circumvents the problem of high aspect ratio by treating the horizontal and vertical directions separately in the stabilization coefficients. The ASUPG method provides accurate results for the thermodynamic equation on geometries with very small aspect ratios like ice sheets.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to spatial resolution in higher-order simulations: the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) contribution to ISMIP6 Greenland using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM)

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 3309-3327
Author(s):  
Martin Rückamp ◽  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Angelika Humbert
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Glacier Retreat ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
System Model ◽  
Level System ◽  
Outlet Glacier

Abstract. Projections of the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise include uncertainties primarily due to the imposed climate forcing and the initial state of the ice sheet model. Several state-of-the-art ice flow models are currently being employed on various grid resolutions to estimate future mass changes in the framework of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). Here we investigate the sensitivity to grid resolution of centennial sea-level contributions from the Greenland ice sheet and study the mechanism at play. We employ the finite-element higher-order Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) and conduct experiments with four different horizontal resolutions, namely 4, 2, 1 and 0.75 km. We run the simulation based on the ISMIP6 core climate forcing from the MIROC5 global circulation model (GCM) under the high-emission Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and consider both atmospheric and oceanic forcing in full and separate scenarios. Under the full scenarios, finer simulations unveil up to approximately 5 % more sea-level rise compared to the coarser resolution. The sensitivity depends on the magnitude of outlet glacier retreat, which is implemented as a series of retreat masks following the ISMIP6 protocol. Without imposed retreat under atmosphere-only forcing, the resolution dependency exhibits an opposite behaviour with approximately 5 % more sea-level contribution in the coarser resolution. The sea-level contribution indicates a converging behaviour below a 1 km horizontal resolution. A driving mechanism for differences is the ability to resolve the bedrock topography, which highly controls ice discharge to the ocean. Additionally, thinning and acceleration emerge to propagate further inland in high resolution for many glaciers. A major response mechanism is sliding, with an enhanced feedback on the effective normal pressure at higher resolution leading to a larger increase in sliding speeds under scenarios with outlet glacier retreat.

scholarly journals A Scalability Study of the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM, Version 4.18)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yannic Fischler ◽  
Martin Rückamp ◽  
Christian Bischof ◽  
Vadym Aizinger ◽  
Mathieu Morlighem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Stokes Equations ◽  
Order Approximation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
System Model ◽  
Level System ◽  
Matrix Assembly ◽  
Constant State ◽  
And Sea Level

Abstract. Accurately modeling the contribution of Greenland and Antarctica to sea level rise requires to solve partial differential equations at a high spatial resolution. It is important to test the scalability of existing ice sheet models in order to assess whether they are ready to take advantage of new cluster architectures. In this paper, we discuss the overall scaling of the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) applied to the Greenland ice sheet. The model setup used as benchmark problem comprises a variety of modules with different levels of complexity and computational demands. The core builds the so-called stress balance module, which uses the higher-order approximation (or Blatter-Pattyn) of the Stokes equations and a mesh of linear prismatic finite elements to compute the ice flow. We develop a detailed user-oriented, yet low-overhead performance instrumentation tailored to the requirements of earth system models and run scaling tests up to 6 144 MPI processes. The results show that the computation of the Greenland model scales overall well up to 3 072 MPI processes, but is eventually slowed down by matrix assembly, the output handling, and lower-dimensional problems that employ lower numbers of unknowns per MPI process. We also discuss improvements of the scaling and identify further improvements needed for climate research. The instrumented version of ISSM, thus, not only identifies potential performance bottlenecks that were not present at lower core counts but also provides the capability to continually monitor the performance of ISSM code basis. This is of long-term significance as the overall performance of ISSM model depends on the subtle interplay between algorithms, their implementation, underlying libraries, compilers, run-time systems and hardware characteristics, all of which are in a constant state of flux.

Relative control of bedrock roughness versus topography on global glacier bed friction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Gagliardini ◽  
Fabien Gillet-Chaulet ◽  
Florent Gimbert
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Inverse Method ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Grid Resolution ◽  
Classical Approach ◽  
Bed Topography ◽  
Bed Friction

<p>Friction at the base of ice-sheets has been shown to be one of the largest uncertainty of model projections for the contribution of ice-sheet to future sea level rise. On hard beds, most of the apparent friction is the result of ice flowing over the bumps that have a size smaller than described by the grid resolution of ice-sheet models. To account for this friction, the classical approach is to replace this under resolved roughness by an ad-hoc friction law. In an imaginary world of unlimited computing resource and highly resolved bedrock DEM, one should solve for all bed roughnesses assuming pure sliding at the bedrock-ice interface. If such solutions are not affordable at the scale of an ice-sheet or even at the scale of a glacier, the effect of small bumps can be inferred using synthetical periodic geometry. In this presentation,<span>  </span>beds are constructed using the superposition of up to five bed geometries made of sinusoidal bumps of decreasing wavelength and amplitudes. The contribution to the total friction of all five beds is evaluated by inverse methods using the most resolved solution as observation. It is shown that small features of few meters can contribute up to almost half of the total friction, depending on the wavelengths and amplitudes distribution. This work also confirms that the basal friction inferred using inverse method<span>  </span>is very sensitive to how the bed topography is described by the model grid, and therefore depends on the size of the model grid itself.<span> </span></p>

scholarly journals Simulation of the future sea level contribution of Greenland with a new glacial system model

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 3097-3121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhard Calov ◽  
Sebastian Beyer ◽  
Ralf Greve ◽  
Johanna Beckmann ◽  
Matteo Willeit ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
System Model ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. We introduce the coupled model of the Greenland glacial system IGLOO 1.0, including the polythermal ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (version 3.3) with hybrid dynamics, the model of basal hydrology HYDRO and a parameterization of submarine melt for marine-terminated outlet glaciers. The aim of this glacial system model is to gain a better understanding of the processes important for the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise under future climate change scenarios. The ice sheet is initialized via a relaxation towards observed surface elevation, imposing the palaeo-surface temperature over the last glacial cycle. As a present-day reference, we use the 1961–1990 standard climatology derived from simulations of the regional atmosphere model MAR with ERA reanalysis boundary conditions. For the palaeo-part of the spin-up, we add the temperature anomaly derived from the GRIP ice core to the years 1961–1990 average surface temperature field. For our projections, we apply surface temperature and surface mass balance anomalies derived from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios created by MAR with boundary conditions from simulations with three CMIP5 models. The hybrid ice sheet model is fully coupled with the model of basal hydrology. With this model and the MAR scenarios, we perform simulations to estimate the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea level rise until the end of the 21st and 23rd centuries. Further on, the impact of elevation–surface mass balance feedback, introduced via the MAR data, on future sea level rise is inspected. In our projections, we found the Greenland ice sheet to contribute between 1.9 and 13.0 cm to global sea level rise until the year 2100 and between 3.5 and 76.4 cm until the year 2300, including our simulated additional sea level rise due to elevation–surface mass balance feedback. Translated into additional sea level rise, the strength of this feedback in the year 2100 varies from 0.4 to 1.7 cm, and in the year 2300 it ranges from 1.7 to 21.8 cm. Additionally, taking the Helheim and Store glaciers as examples, we investigate the role of ocean warming and surface runoff change for the melting of outlet glaciers. It shows that ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are about equally important for the melting of the examined outlet glaciers.

scholarly journals Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet–climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 2195-2213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Philippe Huybrechts ◽  
Marie-France Loutre ◽  
Thierry Fichefet
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
A Minor ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
And Sea Level

Abstract. As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG,  ∼  130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate–ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet–climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.

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