scholarly journals Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 805-824 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandy P. Harrison ◽  
Marie-José Gaillard ◽  
Benjamin D. Stocker ◽  
Marc Vander Linden ◽  
Kees Klein Goldewijk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Archaeological Data ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) during the pre-industrial Holocene could have affected regional and global climate. Existing scenarios of LULC changes during the Holocene are based on relatively simple assumptions and highly uncertain estimates of population changes through time. Archaeological and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have the potential to refine these assumptions and estimates. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k initiative is working towards improved reconstructions of LULC globally. In this paper, we document the types of archaeological data that are being collated and how they will be used to improve LULC reconstructions. Given the large methodological uncertainties involved, both in reconstructing LULC from the archaeological data and in implementing these reconstructions into global scenarios of LULC, we propose a protocol to evaluate the revised scenarios using independent pollen-based reconstructions of land cover and climate. Further evaluation of the revised scenarios involves carbon cycle model simulations to determine whether the LULC reconstructions are consistent with constraints provided by ice core records of CO2 evolution and modern-day LULC. Finally, the protocol outlines how the improved LULC reconstructions will be used in palaeoclimate simulations in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to quantify the magnitude of anthropogenic impacts on climate through time and ultimately to improve the realism of Holocene climate simulations.

scholarly journals Development and testing of scenarios for implementing Holocene LULC in Earth System Model Experiments

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandy P. Harrison ◽  
Marie-José Gaillard ◽  
Benjamin D. Stocker ◽  
Marc Vander Linden ◽  
Kees Klein Goldewijk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
System Model ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Archaeological Data ◽  
The Past ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) during the pre-industrial Holocene could have affected regional and global climate. Current LULC scenarios are based on relatively simple assumptions and highly uncertain estimates of population changes through time. Archaeological and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have the potential to refine these assumptions and estimates. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k initiative is working towards improved reconstructions of LULC globally. In this paper, we document the types of archaeological data that are being collated and how they will be used to improve LULC reconstructions. Given the large methodological uncertainties involved, we propose methods to evaluate the revised scenarios by using independent pollen-based reconstructions of land cover and of climate. A further test involves carbon-cycle simulations to determine whether the LULC reconstructions are consistent with constraints provided by ice-core records of CO2 evolution and modern-day LULC. Finally, we outline a protocol for using the improved LULC reconstructions in palaeoclimate simulations within the framework of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project in order to quantify the magnitude of anthropogenic impacts on climate through time and ultimately to improve the realism of Holocene climate simulations.

scholarly journals Climate forcing reconstructions for use in PMIP simulations of the last millennium (v1.0)

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. A. Schmidt ◽  
J. H. Jungclaus ◽  
C. M. Ammann ◽  
E. Bard ◽  
P. Braconnot ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
The Third ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project ◽  
Paleoclimate Modelling

Abstract. Simulations of climate over the Last Millennium (850–1850 CE) have been incorporated into the third phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The drivers of climate over this period are chiefly orbital, solar, volcanic, changes in land use/land cover and some variation in greenhouse gas levels. While some of these effects can be easily defined, the reconstructions of solar, volcanic and land use-related forcing are more uncertain. We describe here the approach taken in defining the scenarios used in PMIP3, document the forcing reconstructions and discuss likely implications.

scholarly journals Historical land-use-induced evapotranspiration changes estimated from present-day observations and reconstructed land-cover maps

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 3571-3590 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. P. Boisier ◽  
N. de Noblet-Ducoudré ◽  
P. Ciais
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Average Decrease ◽  
Large Spread ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Historical Land Use ◽  
Land Cover Maps ◽  
Process Based Models

Abstract. Recent results from the LUCID model intercomparison project have revealed large discrepancies in the simulated evapotranspiration (ET) response to the historical land-use change. Distinct land-surface parameterizations are behind those discrepancies, but understanding those differences rely on evaluations using still very limited measurements. Model benchmarking studies with observed ET are required in order to reduce the current uncertainties in the impacts of land use in terrestrial water flows. Here we present new estimates of historical land-use-induced ET changes based on three observation-driven products of ET. These products are used to derive empirical models of ET as a function of land-cover properties and environmental variables. An ensemble of reconstructions of past ET changes are derived with the same set of land-cover maps used in LUCID, with which we obtain an average decrease in global terrestrial ET of 1260 ± 850 km3 yr−1 between the preindustrial period and the present-day. This estimate is larger in magnitude than the mean ET change simulated within LUCID with process-based models, and substantially weaker than other estimates based on observations. Although decreases in annual ET dominate in deforested regions, large summertime increases in ET are diagnosed over areas of large cropland expansion. The multiple ET reconstructions carried out here show a large spread that we attribute principally to the different land-cover maps adopted and to the crops' ET rates deduced from the various products assessed. We therefore conclude that the current uncertainties of past ET changes could be reduced efficiently with improved historical land-cover reconstructions and better estimates of cropland ET.

scholarly journals Modelling landslide hazard under global change: the case of a Pyrenean valley

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Séverine Bernardie ◽  
Rosalie Vandromme ◽  
Yannick Thiery ◽  
Thomas Houet ◽  
Marine Grémont ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Global Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Slope Stability ◽  
Landslide Hazard ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Socioeconomic Scenarios

Abstract. Several studies have shown that global changes have important impacts in mountainous areas, since they affect natural hazards induced by hydro-meteorological events such as landslides. To estimate the capacity of mountainous valleys to cope with landslide hazard under global change (climate change as well as climate- and human-induced land use change), it is necessary to evaluate the evolution of the different components that define this type of hazard: topography, geology and geotechnics, hydrogeology and land cover. The present study evaluates, through an innovative methodology, the influence of both vegetation cover and climate change on landslide hazard in a Pyrenean valley from the present to 2100. Once the invariant features of the studied area, such as geology and topography, were set, we first focused on assessing future land use changes through the construction of four prospective socioeconomic scenarios and their projection to 2040 and 2100. These inputs were then used to spatially model land use and land cover (LUCC) information to produce multi-temporal LUCC maps. Then, climate change inputs were used to extract the water saturation of the uppermost layers, according to two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The impacts of land use and climate change based on these scenarios were then used to modulate the hydro-mechanical model to compute the factor of safety (FoS) and the hazard levels over the considered area. The results demonstrate the influence of land use on slope stability through the presence and type of forest. The resulting changes are significant despite being small and dependent on future land use linked to the socioeconomic scenarios. In particular, a reduction in human activity results in an increase in slope stability; in contrast, an increase in anthropic activity leads to an opposite evolution in the region, with some reduction in slope stability. Climate change may also have a significant impact in some areas because of the increase in the soil water content; the results indicate a reduction in the FoS in a large part of the study area, depending on the landslide typology considered. Therefore, even if future forest growth leads to slope stabilization, the evolution of the groundwater conditions will lead to destabilization. These changes are not uniform over the area and are particularly significant under the most extreme climate scenario, RCP 8.5. Compared to the current period, the size of the area that is prone to deep landslides is higher in the future than the area prone to small landslides (both rotational and translational). On the other hand, the increase rate of areas prone to landslides is higher for the small landslide typology than for the deep landslide typology. Interestingly, the evolution of extreme events is related to the frequency of the highest water filling ratio. The results indicate that the occurrences of landslide hazards in the near future (2021–2050 period, scenario RCP 8.5) and far future (2071–2100 period, scenario RCP 8.5) are expected to increase by factors of 1.5 and 4, respectively.

scholarly journals A KNOWLEDGE-BASED APPROACH ON GLOBELAND30 INCREMENTAL UPDATING: A CASE STUDY OF BUILT-UP AREA

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B8 ◽  
pp. 1335-1339
Author(s):  
Jun Zhang ◽  
Hao Wu ◽  
Shu Peng
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Domain Knowledge ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Spatial Relation ◽  
Shape Index ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Current Image ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Class Segmentation

Global land cover/land use product in multiple periods is pivotal to understand the complex drivers and mechanisms in global climate change, and to forecast future land use trends in sustainable development. GlobeLand30, as the world’s first high spatial resolution land cover product (83% accuracy), needs to be continually updated to meet various needs. However, many challenges - such as removing pseudo change to keep consistency of updating - remain unsolved. To deal with high temporal and spatial variability happened within built-up area class and between it and other classes, this paper presents an alternative approach that exploits domain knowledge and object-based change detection technique. The central premise of the approach is that one-class segmentation is first proceeded on both former image and current image. Then, segments of former image are labeled by using corresponding Globeland30 product. Segments of built-up area in current image are finally recognized through correlation which is established based on domain knowledge. Knowledge used in this study mainly includes area index, shape index, perimeter index, spectral similarity, 'from to' types and spatial relation. The proposed method and classification method were tested for their ability for built-up area updating in Shandong area. Results showed that the proposed method proved particularly effective for maintaining consistency of unchanged areas from former product to current one, and more than 80% changes could be identified correctly. The proposed method also provided a practical way for an economic and accurate updating of Globeland30 product.

scholarly journals A KNOWLEDGE-BASED APPROACH ON GLOBELAND30 INCREMENTAL UPDATING: A CASE STUDY OF BUILT-UP AREA

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B8 ◽  
pp. 1335-1339
Author(s):  
Jun Zhang ◽  
Hao Wu ◽  
Shu Peng
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Domain Knowledge ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Spatial Relation ◽  
Shape Index ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Current Image ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Class Segmentation

Global land cover/land use product in multiple periods is pivotal to understand the complex drivers and mechanisms in global climate change, and to forecast future land use trends in sustainable development. GlobeLand30, as the world’s first high spatial resolution land cover product (83% accuracy), needs to be continually updated to meet various needs. However, many challenges - such as removing pseudo change to keep consistency of updating - remain unsolved. To deal with high temporal and spatial variability happened within built-up area class and between it and other classes, this paper presents an alternative approach that exploits domain knowledge and object-based change detection technique. The central premise of the approach is that one-class segmentation is first proceeded on both former image and current image. Then, segments of former image are labeled by using corresponding Globeland30 product. Segments of built-up area in current image are finally recognized through correlation which is established based on domain knowledge. Knowledge used in this study mainly includes area index, shape index, perimeter index, spectral similarity, 'from to' types and spatial relation. The proposed method and classification method were tested for their ability for built-up area updating in Shandong area. Results showed that the proposed method proved particularly effective for maintaining consistency of unchanged areas from former product to current one, and more than 80% changes could be identified correctly. The proposed method also provided a practical way for an economic and accurate updating of Globeland30 product.

scholarly journals The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 2973-2998 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Lawrence ◽  
George C. Hurtt ◽  
Almut Arneth ◽  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
Kate V. Calvin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Experimental Design ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Land Management ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Land Use Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Process Level

Abstract. Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the following questions. (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past–future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, and are there regional land-management strategies with the promise to help mitigate climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land use, the unique impacts of land-cover change vs. land-management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land–atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent to which impacts of enhanced CO2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use.LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use data set, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to LULCC. In this paper, we describe LUMIP activity (2), i.e., the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be complementary to simulations requested in the CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations and other CMIP6 MIPs including ScenarioMIP, C4MIP, LS3MIP, and DAMIP. LUMIP includes a two-phase experimental design. Phase one features idealized coupled and land-only model simulations designed to advance process-level understanding of LULCC impacts on climate, as well as to quantify model sensitivity to potential land-cover and land-use change. Phase two experiments focus on quantification of the historic impact of land use and the potential for future land management decisions to aid in mitigation of climate change. This paper documents these simulations in detail, explains their rationale, outlines plans for analysis, and describes a new subgrid land-use tile data request for selected variables (reporting model output data separately for primary and secondary land, crops, pasture, and urban land-use types). It is essential that modeling groups participating in LUMIP adhere to the experimental design as closely as possible and clearly report how the model experiments were executed.

Century- to Millennial-Scale Climate Change and Ecosystem Response in Taylor Valley, Antarctica

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew G. Fountain ◽  
W. Berry Lyons
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Structure And Function ◽  
Climatic Variation ◽  
Dry Valleys ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Taylor Valley ◽  
And Function

The view of climate change during the Pleistocene and the Holocene was very much different a mere decade ago. With the collection and detailed analyses of ice core records from both Greenland and Antarctica in the early and mid-1990s, respectively, the collective view of climate variability during this time period has changed dramatically. During the Pleistocene, at least as far back as 450,000 years b.p., abrupt and severe temperature fluctuations were a regular occurrence rather than the exception (Mayewski et al. 1996, 1998; Petit et al. 1999). During the Pleistocene, these rapid and large climatic fluctuations, initially identified in the ice core records, have been verified in both marine and lacustrine sediments as well (Bond et al. 1993; Grimm et al. 1993), suggesting large-scale (hemispheric to global) climate restructuring over very short periods of time (Mayewski et al. 1997). Similar types of climatic fluctuations, but with smaller amplitudes, have also occurred during the Holocene (O’Brien et al. 1995; Bond et al. 1997; Arz et al. 2001). What were the biological responses to these changes in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric chemistry? We must answer this question if we are to understand the century- to millennial-scale influence of climate on the structure and function of ecosystems. Because the polar regions are thought to be amplifiers of global climate change, these regions are ideal for investigating the response of ecological systems to, what in temperate regions might be considered, small-scale climatic variation. Our knowledge of past climatic variations in Antarctica comes from different types of proxy records, including ice core, geologic, and marine (Lyons et al. 1997). It is clear, however, that coastal Antarctica may respond to oceanic, atmospheric, and ice sheet–based climatic “drivers,” and therefore ice-free regions, such as the Mc- Murdo Dry Valleys, may respond to climate change in a much more complex manner than previously thought (R. Poreda, unpubl. data 2001). Since the initiation of the McMurdo Dry Valleys Long-Term Ecological Research program (MCM) in 1993, there has been a keen interest not only in the dynamics of the present day ecosystem, but also in the legacies produced via past climatic variation on the ecosystem. In this chapter we examine the current structure and function of the dry valleys ecosystem from the perspective of our work centered in Taylor Valley.

scholarly journals Evolution of Land Cover and Ecosystem Services in the Frame of Pastoral Functional Categories: A Case Study in Swedish Lapland

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 390
Author(s):  
Romain Courault ◽  
Marianne Cohen
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Environmental Science ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Landscape Composition ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Human Environment ◽  
Glacier Melting

Ecosystem services (ES) are a key-component for sustainable management of human–environment systems, particularly in polar environments where effects of global changes are stronger. Taking local knowledge into account allows the valuation of ES experienced by stakeholders. It is the case for reindeer herders in Scandinavia, the ungulate being a keystone specie for subarctic socio-ecosystems. We adapt the ecosystem services assessment (ESA) proposed in Finland to the case study of the Gabna herders’ community (Sweden), considering its cultural, geographical, and dynamic specificities. We used Saami ecological categories over the land-use categories of the CORINE Land Cover (CLC). We reassessed ES at the scale of the Gabna community and its seasonal pastures. We studied their evolution over 2000–2018, using CLC maps and Change CLC maps. Integration of Saami ecological categories in the classification of land cover did not substantially change the land cover distributions. However, ES were greater in Saami land use compared to other CLC categories. Cultural services were higher for summer and interseasonal pastures, dedicated to the reindeer reproduction, suggesting interactions between provisioning and cultural ES. Land cover changes are mostly represented by intensive forestry (5% of winter pastures) impeding reindeer grazing activity, while other seasonal pasture landscape composition stayed comparable along time. Consequently, forest activity, and in a lesser extent glacier melting and urbanization are the main drivers of the temporal evolution of ES. In the frame of pastoral landscapes conservation, the use of local terminologies opens perspectives for a holistic approach in environmental science. It raises the importance of local stakeholders as co-researchers in nature conservation studies.

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