scholarly journals TransEBM v. 1.0: description, tuning, and validation of a transient model of the Earth's energy balance in two dimensions

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 2843-2866
Author(s):  
Elisa Ziegler ◽  
Kira Rehfeld
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Transient Model

Abstract. Modeling the long-term transient evolution of climate remains a technical and scientific challenge. However, understanding and improving modeling of the long-term behavior of the climate system increases confidence in projected changes in the mid- to long-term future. Energy balance models (EBMs) provide simplified and computationally efficient descriptions of long timescales and allow large ensemble runs by parameterizing energy fluxes. In this way, they can be used to pinpoint periods and phenomena of interest. Here, we present TransEBM, an extended version of the two-dimensional energy balance model by Zhuang et al. (2017a). Transient CO2, solar insolation, orbital configuration, fixed ice coverage, and land–sea distribution are implemented as effective radiative forcings at the land surface. We show that the model is most sensitive to changes in CO2 and ice distribution, but the obliquity and land–sea mask have significant influence on modeled temperatures as well. We tune TransEBM to reproduce the 1960–1989 CE global mean temperature and the Equator-to-pole and seasonal temperature gradients of ERA-20CM reanalysis (Hersbach et al., 2015). The resulting latitudinal and seasonal temperature distributions agree well with reanalysis and the general circulation model (GCM) HadCM3 for a simulation of the past millennium (Bühler et al., 2020). TransEBM does not represent the internal variability of the ocean–atmosphere system, but non-deterministic elements and nonlinearity can be introduced through model restarts and randomized forcing. As the model facilitates long transient simulations, we envisage its use in exploratory studies of stochastic forcing and perturbed parameterizations, thus complementing studies with comprehensive GCMs.

scholarly journals TransEBM v. 1.0: Description, tuning, and validation of a transient model of the Earth’s energy balance in two dimensions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisa Ziegler ◽  
Kira Rehfeld
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Seasonal Temperature

Abstract. Modeling the long-term transient evolution of climate remains a technical and scientific challenge. However, understanding and improved modeling of the long-term behavior of the climate system increases confidence in projected changes in the mid- to long-term future. Energy balance models (EBMs) provide simplified and computationally efficient descriptions of long timescales and allow large ensemble runs by parameterizing energy fluxes. This way, they can be used to pinpoint periods and phenomena of interest. Here, we present an extended version of the two-dimensional energy balance model by Zhuang et al. (2017a). Transient CO2, solar insolation, orbital configuration, fixed ice coverage and land-sea distribution are implemented as effective radiative forcings at the land surface. We show that the model is most sensitive to changes in CO2 and ice distribution, but the obliquity and land-sea mask have significant influence on modeled temperatures as well. We tune the new model to reproduce the 1960–89 C.E. global mean temperature, equator-to-pole, and seasonal temperature gradient of the ERA20CM reanalysis (Hersbach et al., 2015). The resulting latitudinal and seasonal temperature distributions agree well with reanalysis and the general circulation model (GCM) HadCM3 for a simulation of the past millennium. We find that the EBM lacks internal climatic variability. This is attributed mostly to its reduced descriptions of heat transport and the hydrological cycle. As the model facilitates long transient simulations, we envisage its use in exploratory studies of stochastic forcing and perturbed parameterizations, thus complementing studies with comprehensive GCMs.

scholarly journals Radiative–Convective Equilibrium over a Land Surface

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (23) ◽  
pp. 8611-8629 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Rochetin ◽  
Benjamin R. Lintner ◽  
Kirsten L. Findell ◽  
Adam H. Sobel ◽  
Pierre Gentine
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Multiple Equilibria ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Total System ◽  
Vertical Temperature Profile ◽  
Surface Precipitation

Abstract Radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) describes an idealized state of the atmosphere in which the vertical temperature profile is determined by a balance between radiative and convective fluxes. While RCE has been applied extensively over oceans, its application over the land surface has been limited. The present study explores the properties of RCE over land using an atmospheric single-column model (SCM) from the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique–Zoom, version 5B (LMDZ5B) general circulation model coupled in temperature and moisture to a land surface model using a simplified bucket model with finite moisture capacity. Given the presence of a large-amplitude diurnal heat flux cycle, the resultant RCE exhibits multiple equilibria when conditions are neither strictly water nor energy limited. By varying top-of-atmosphere insolation (through changes in latitude), total system water content, and initial temperature conditions the sensitivity of the land RCE states is assessed, with particular emphasis on the role of clouds. Based on this analysis, it appears that a necessary condition for the model to exhibit multiple equilibria is the presence of low-level clouds coupled to the diurnal cycle of radiation. In addition the simulated surface precipitation rate varies nonmonotonically with latitude as a result of a tradeoff between in-cloud rain rate and subcloud rain reevaporation, thus underscoring the importance of subcloud layer processes and unsaturated downdrafts. It is shown that clouds, especially at low levels, are key elements of the internal variability of the coupled land–atmosphere system through their feedback on radiation.

scholarly journals Global Meteorological Drought: A Synthesis of Current Understanding with a Focus on SST Drivers of Precipitation Deficits

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (11) ◽  
pp. 3989-4019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Ronald E. Stewart ◽  
Hailan Wang ◽  
Mathew Barlow ◽  
Ernesto H. Berbery ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Current Understanding ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Eastern Canada

Abstract Drought affects virtually every region of the world, and potential shifts in its character in a changing climate are a major concern. This article presents a synthesis of current understanding of meteorological drought, with a focus on the large-scale controls on precipitation afforded by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land surface feedbacks, and radiative forcings. The synthesis is primarily based on regionally focused articles submitted to the Global Drought Information System (GDIS) collection together with new results from a suite of atmospheric general circulation model experiments intended to integrate those studies into a coherent view of drought worldwide. On interannual time scales, the preeminence of ENSO as a driver of meteorological drought throughout much of the Americas, eastern Asia, Australia, and the Maritime Continent is now well established, whereas in other regions (e.g., Europe, Africa, and India), the response to ENSO is more ephemeral or nonexistent. Northern Eurasia, central Europe, and central and eastern Canada stand out as regions with few SST-forced impacts on precipitation on interannual time scales. Decadal changes in SST appear to be a major factor in the occurrence of long-term drought, as highlighted by apparent impacts on precipitation of the late 1990s “climate shifts” in the Pacific and Atlantic SST. Key remaining research challenges include (i) better quantification of unforced and forced atmospheric variability as well as land–atmosphere feedbacks, (ii) better understanding of the physical basis for the leading modes of climate variability and their predictability, and (iii) quantification of the relative contributions of internal decadal SST variability and forced climate change to long-term drought.

Earth-like worlds on eccentric orbits: excursions beyond the habitable zone

2002 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darren M. Williams ◽  
David Pollard
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Habitable Zone ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Climate Stability ◽  
Eccentric Orbits

Many of the recently discovered extrasolar giant planets move around their stars on highly eccentric orbits, and some with e [ges ] 0·7. Systems with planets within or near the habitable zone (HZ) will possibly harbour life on terrestrial-type moons if the seasonal temperature extremes resulting from the large orbital eccentricities of the planets are not too severe. Here we use a three-dimensional general-circulation climate model and a one-dimensional energy-balance model to examine the climates of either bound or isolated earths on extremely elliptical orbits near the HZ. While such worlds are susceptible to large variations in surface temperature, long-term climate stability depends primarily on the average stellar flux received over an entire orbit, not the length of the time spent within the HZ.

scholarly journals Influence of atmospheric internal variability on the long-term Siberian water cycle during the past 2 centuries

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 497-506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazuhiro Oshima ◽  
Koto Ogata ◽  
Hotaek Park ◽  
Yoshihiro Tachibana
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Past ◽  
Term Variation ◽  
East West

Abstract. River discharges from Siberia are a large source of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean, whereas the cause of the long-term variation in Siberian discharges is still unclear. The observed river discharges of the Lena in the east and the Ob in the west indicated different relationships in each of the epochs during the past 7 decades. The correlations between the two river discharges were negative during the 1980s to mid-1990s, positive during the mid-1950s to 1960s, and became weak after the mid-1990s. More long-term records of tree-ring-reconstructed discharges have also shown differences in the correlations in each of the epochs. It is noteworthy that the correlations obtained from the reconstructions tend to be negative during the past 2 centuries. Such tendency has also been obtained from precipitations in observations, and in simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and fully coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs conducted for the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. The AGCM control simulation further demonstrated that an east–west seesaw pattern of summertime large-scale atmospheric circulation frequently emerges over Siberia as an atmospheric internal variability. This results in an opposite anomaly of precipitation over the Lena and Ob and the negative correlation. Consequently, the summertime atmospheric internal variability in the east–west seesaw pattern over Siberia is a key factor influencing the long-term variation in precipitation and river discharge, i.e., the water cycle in this region.

scholarly journals Influence of atmospheric internal variability on the long-term Siberian water cycle during the past two centuries

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazuhiro Oshima ◽  
Koto Ogata ◽  
Hotaek Park ◽  
Yoshihiro Tachibana
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
The Past ◽  
Term Variation ◽  
East West

Abstract. River discharges from Siberia are a large source of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean, although the cause of the long-term variation in discharge is still unclear. The observed river discharges of the Lena in the east and the Ob in the west indicated different relationships in each of the epochs during the past seven decades. The correlations between the two river discharges were negative during the 1980s to mid-1990s, positive during the mid-1950s to 1960s, and became weak after the mid-1990s. Long-term records of tree-ring-reconstructed discharges during the past two centuries have also shown differences in the correlations in each epoch. However, it is noteworthy that the correlations obtained from the reconstructions tend to be negative. Such negative correlations have also been obtained from precipitations over the Lena and Ob in observation, and in simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and multi-coupled models conducted for the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. The AGCM control simulation further demonstrated that an east–west seesaw pattern of summertime atmospheric large-scale circulation frequently emerges over Siberia as an atmospheric internal variability, resulting in the negative correlation between the Lena and Ob. Consequently, the summertime atmospheric internal variability of east–west seesaw pattern over Siberia is a key factor influencing the long-term variation in precipitation and river discharge, i.e., the water cycle in this region.

Tropical Atmospheric Variability Forced by Oceanic Internal Variability

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 765-771 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Jochum ◽  
Clara Deser ◽  
Adam Phillips
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Instability Waves ◽  
Tropical Instability Waves ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Atmospheric general circulation model experiments are conducted to quantify the contribution of internal oceanic variability in the form of tropical instability waves (TIWs) to interannual wind and rainfall variability in the tropical Pacific. It is found that in the tropical Pacific, along the equator, and near 25°N and 25°S, TIWs force a significant increase in wind and rainfall variability from interseasonal to interannual time scales. Because of the stochastic nature of TIWs, this means that climate models that do not take them into account will underestimate the strength and number of extreme events and may overestimate forecast capability.

scholarly journals Do Downscaled General Circulation Models Reliably Simulate Historical Climatic Conditions?

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Bock ◽  
Lauren E. Hay ◽  
Gregory J. McCabe ◽  
Steven L. Markstrom ◽  
R. Dwight Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Ks Test

Abstract The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

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