scholarly journals TransEBM v. 1.0: Description, tuning, and validation of a transient model of the Earth’s energy balance in two dimensions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisa Ziegler ◽  
Kira Rehfeld
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Seasonal Temperature

Abstract. Modeling the long-term transient evolution of climate remains a technical and scientific challenge. However, understanding and improved modeling of the long-term behavior of the climate system increases confidence in projected changes in the mid- to long-term future. Energy balance models (EBMs) provide simplified and computationally efficient descriptions of long timescales and allow large ensemble runs by parameterizing energy fluxes. This way, they can be used to pinpoint periods and phenomena of interest. Here, we present an extended version of the two-dimensional energy balance model by Zhuang et al. (2017a). Transient CO2, solar insolation, orbital configuration, fixed ice coverage and land-sea distribution are implemented as effective radiative forcings at the land surface. We show that the model is most sensitive to changes in CO2 and ice distribution, but the obliquity and land-sea mask have significant influence on modeled temperatures as well. We tune the new model to reproduce the 1960–89 C.E. global mean temperature, equator-to-pole, and seasonal temperature gradient of the ERA20CM reanalysis (Hersbach et al., 2015). The resulting latitudinal and seasonal temperature distributions agree well with reanalysis and the general circulation model (GCM) HadCM3 for a simulation of the past millennium. We find that the EBM lacks internal climatic variability. This is attributed mostly to its reduced descriptions of heat transport and the hydrological cycle. As the model facilitates long transient simulations, we envisage its use in exploratory studies of stochastic forcing and perturbed parameterizations, thus complementing studies with comprehensive GCMs.

scholarly journals TransEBM v. 1.0: description, tuning, and validation of a transient model of the Earth's energy balance in two dimensions

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 2843-2866
Author(s):  
Elisa Ziegler ◽  
Kira Rehfeld
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Transient Model

Abstract. Modeling the long-term transient evolution of climate remains a technical and scientific challenge. However, understanding and improving modeling of the long-term behavior of the climate system increases confidence in projected changes in the mid- to long-term future. Energy balance models (EBMs) provide simplified and computationally efficient descriptions of long timescales and allow large ensemble runs by parameterizing energy fluxes. In this way, they can be used to pinpoint periods and phenomena of interest. Here, we present TransEBM, an extended version of the two-dimensional energy balance model by Zhuang et al. (2017a). Transient CO2, solar insolation, orbital configuration, fixed ice coverage, and land–sea distribution are implemented as effective radiative forcings at the land surface. We show that the model is most sensitive to changes in CO2 and ice distribution, but the obliquity and land–sea mask have significant influence on modeled temperatures as well. We tune TransEBM to reproduce the 1960–1989 CE global mean temperature and the Equator-to-pole and seasonal temperature gradients of ERA-20CM reanalysis (Hersbach et al., 2015). The resulting latitudinal and seasonal temperature distributions agree well with reanalysis and the general circulation model (GCM) HadCM3 for a simulation of the past millennium (Bühler et al., 2020). TransEBM does not represent the internal variability of the ocean–atmosphere system, but non-deterministic elements and nonlinearity can be introduced through model restarts and randomized forcing. As the model facilitates long transient simulations, we envisage its use in exploratory studies of stochastic forcing and perturbed parameterizations, thus complementing studies with comprehensive GCMs.

scholarly journals Effect of vegetation on the Late Miocene ocean circulation

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 605-631 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Lohmann ◽  
M. Butzin ◽  
A. Micheels ◽  
T. Bickert ◽  
V. Mosbrugger
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Late Miocene ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. A weak and shallow thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean is related to an open Central American gateway and exchange with fresh Pacific waters. We estimate the effect of vegetation on the ocean general circulation using the atmospheric circulation model simulations for the Late Miocene climate. Caused by an increase in net evaporation in the Miocene North Atlantic, the North Atlantic water becomes more saline which enhances the overturning circulation and thus the northward heat transport. This effect reveals a potentially important feedback between the ocean circulation, the hydrological cycle and the land surface cover for Cenozoic climate evolution.

scholarly journals Global Meteorological Drought: A Synthesis of Current Understanding with a Focus on SST Drivers of Precipitation Deficits

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (11) ◽  
pp. 3989-4019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Ronald E. Stewart ◽  
Hailan Wang ◽  
Mathew Barlow ◽  
Ernesto H. Berbery ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Current Understanding ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Eastern Canada

Abstract Drought affects virtually every region of the world, and potential shifts in its character in a changing climate are a major concern. This article presents a synthesis of current understanding of meteorological drought, with a focus on the large-scale controls on precipitation afforded by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land surface feedbacks, and radiative forcings. The synthesis is primarily based on regionally focused articles submitted to the Global Drought Information System (GDIS) collection together with new results from a suite of atmospheric general circulation model experiments intended to integrate those studies into a coherent view of drought worldwide. On interannual time scales, the preeminence of ENSO as a driver of meteorological drought throughout much of the Americas, eastern Asia, Australia, and the Maritime Continent is now well established, whereas in other regions (e.g., Europe, Africa, and India), the response to ENSO is more ephemeral or nonexistent. Northern Eurasia, central Europe, and central and eastern Canada stand out as regions with few SST-forced impacts on precipitation on interannual time scales. Decadal changes in SST appear to be a major factor in the occurrence of long-term drought, as highlighted by apparent impacts on precipitation of the late 1990s “climate shifts” in the Pacific and Atlantic SST. Key remaining research challenges include (i) better quantification of unforced and forced atmospheric variability as well as land–atmosphere feedbacks, (ii) better understanding of the physical basis for the leading modes of climate variability and their predictability, and (iii) quantification of the relative contributions of internal decadal SST variability and forced climate change to long-term drought.

Earth-like worlds on eccentric orbits: excursions beyond the habitable zone

2002 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darren M. Williams ◽  
David Pollard
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Habitable Zone ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Climate Stability ◽  
Eccentric Orbits

Many of the recently discovered extrasolar giant planets move around their stars on highly eccentric orbits, and some with e [ges ] 0·7. Systems with planets within or near the habitable zone (HZ) will possibly harbour life on terrestrial-type moons if the seasonal temperature extremes resulting from the large orbital eccentricities of the planets are not too severe. Here we use a three-dimensional general-circulation climate model and a one-dimensional energy-balance model to examine the climates of either bound or isolated earths on extremely elliptical orbits near the HZ. While such worlds are susceptible to large variations in surface temperature, long-term climate stability depends primarily on the average stellar flux received over an entire orbit, not the length of the time spent within the HZ.

scholarly journals Assessment of soil moisture fields from imperfect climate models with uncertain satellite observations

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 2733-2750 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Schumann ◽  
D. J. Lunt ◽  
P. J. Valdes ◽  
R. A. M. de Jeu ◽  
K. Scipal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Data Uncertainty ◽  
Limited Area

Abstract. We demonstrate that global satellite products can be used to evaluate climate model soil moisture predictions but conclusions should be drawn with care. The quality of a limited area climate model (LAM) was compared to a general circulation model (GCM) using soil moisture data from two different Earth observing satellites within a model validation scheme that copes with the presence of uncertain data. Results showed that in the face of imperfect models and data, it is difficult to investigate the quality of current land surface schemes in simulating hydrology accurately. Nevertheless, a LAM provides, in general, a better representation of spatial patterns and dynamics of soil moisture. However, in months when data uncertainty is higher, particularly in colder months and in periods when vegetation cover and soil moisture are out of phase (e.g. August in the case of Western Europe), it is not possible to draw firm conclusions about model acceptability. Our work indicates that a higher resolution LAM has more benefits to soil moisture prediction than are due to the resolution alone and can be attributed to an overall intensification of the hydrological cycle relative to the GCM.

scholarly journals Simulation of the isotopic composition of stratospheric water vapour – Part 1: Description and evaluation of the EMAC model

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 5537-5555 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Eichinger ◽  
P. Jöckel ◽  
S. Brinkop ◽  
M. Werner ◽  
S. Lossow
Keyword(s):  
Isotopic Composition ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Isotope Ratios ◽  
Physical Fractionation ◽  
Water Isotopologues ◽  
Stratospheric Water Vapour

Abstract. This modelling study aims at an improved understanding of the processes that determine the water vapour budget in the stratosphere by means of the investigation of water isotope ratios. An additional (and separate from the actual) hydrological cycle has been introduced into the chemistry–climate model EMAC, including the water isotopologues HDO and H218O and their physical fractionation processes. Additionally an explicit computation of the contribution of methane oxidation to H2O and HDO has been incorporated. The model expansions allow detailed analyses of water vapour and its isotope ratio with respect to deuterium throughout the stratosphere and in the transition region to the troposphere. In order to assure the correct representation of the water isotopologues in the model's hydrological cycle, the expanded system has been evaluated in several steps. The physical fractionation effects have been evaluated by comparison of the simulated isotopic composition of precipitation with measurements from a ground-based network (GNIP) and with the results from the isotopologue-enabled general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso. The model's representation of the chemical HDO precursor CH3D in the stratosphere has been confirmed by a comparison with chemical transport models (1-D, CHEM2D) and measurements from radiosonde flights. Finally, the simulated stratospheric HDO and the isotopic composition of water vapour have been evaluated, with respect to retrievals from three different satellite instruments (MIPAS, ACE-FTS, SMR). Discrepancies in stratospheric water vapour isotope ratios between two of the three satellite retrievals can now partly be explained.

scholarly journals Do Downscaled General Circulation Models Reliably Simulate Historical Climatic Conditions?

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Bock ◽  
Lauren E. Hay ◽  
Gregory J. McCabe ◽  
Steven L. Markstrom ◽  
R. Dwight Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Ks Test

Abstract The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

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