scholarly journals The weather@home regional climate modelling project for Australia and New Zealand

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitchell T. Black ◽  
David J. Karoly ◽  
Suzanne M. Rosier ◽  
Sam M. Dean ◽  
Andrew D. King ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Home Computers

Abstract. A new climate modelling project has been developed for regional climate simulation and the attribution of weather and climate extremes over Australia and New Zealand. The project, known as weather@home Australia-New Zealand, uses public volunteers' home computers to run a moderate-resolution global atmospheric model with a nested regional model over the Australasian region. By harnessing the aggregated computing power of home computers, weather@home is able to generate an unprecedented number of simulations of possible weather under various climate scenarios. This combination of large ensemble sizes with high spatial resolution allows extreme events to be examined with more robust estimates of uncertainty. This paper provides an overview of the weather@home Australia-New Zealand project, including initial evaluation of the regional model performance. The model is seen to be capable of resolving many climate features that are important for the Australian and New Zealand regions, including the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on driving natural climate variability. To date, 75 model simulations of the observed climate have been successfully integrated over the period 1985–2014 in a time-slice manner. In addition, multi-thousand member ensembles have also been generated for the years 2013, 2014 and 2015 under climate scenarios with and without the effect of human influences. All data generated by the project is freely available to the broader research community.

scholarly journals The weather@home regional climate modelling project for Australia and New Zealand

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 3161-3176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitchell T. Black ◽  
David J. Karoly ◽  
Suzanne M. Rosier ◽  
Sam M. Dean ◽  
Andrew D. King ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Home Computers

Abstract. A new climate modelling project has been developed for regional climate simulation and the attribution of weather and climate extremes over Australia and New Zealand. The project, known as weather@home Australia–New Zealand, uses public volunteers' home computers to run a moderate-resolution global atmospheric model with a nested regional model over the Australasian region. By harnessing the aggregated computing power of home computers, weather@home is able to generate an unprecedented number of simulations of possible weather under various climate scenarios. This combination of large ensemble sizes with high spatial resolution allows extreme events to be examined with well-constrained estimates of sampling uncertainty. This paper provides an overview of the weather@home Australia–New Zealand project, including initial evaluation of the regional model performance. The model is seen to be capable of resolving many climate features that are important for the Australian and New Zealand regions, including the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on driving natural climate variability. To date, 75 model simulations of the historical climate have been successfully integrated over the period 1985–2014 in a time-slice manner. In addition, multi-thousand member ensembles have also been generated for the years 2013, 2014 and 2015 under climate scenarios with and without the effect of human influences. All data generated by the project are freely available to the broader research community.

scholarly journals Tracking cyclones in regional model data: the future of Mediterranean storms

2005 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 13-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Muskulus ◽  
D. Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
High Resolution Data ◽  
International Panel ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Ipcc Sres

Abstract. With the advent of regional climate modelling, there are high-resolution data available for regional climatological change studies. Automatic tracking of cyclones in these datasets encounters problems with high spatial resolution due to cyclone substructure. Watershed segmentation, a technique from image analysis, has been used to obtain estimates for the spatial extent of cyclones, enabling better tracking and precipitation analysis. In this study we have used data from a 0.5° Regional Model (REMO) climatological model run for the period from 1961-2099, following the International Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) B2 forcing. The resulting hourly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fields have been analysed for cyclone numbers and tracks in the Mediterranean region. According to the results, the total number of cyclones in the Mediterranean seems to be increasing in the future, in spite of a general decrease of the numbers of stronger systems. In Summer, the increase in each gridbox seems to be proportional to the total number of cyclones in that box, whereas in Winter there is a slight proportional decrease. As concerns track properties and precipitation estimates along tracks, no significant change could be detected.

Investigating marine heat waves with a coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Pontoppidan ◽  
Priscilla Mooney ◽  
Jerry Tjiputra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Spatio Temporal

<p>Marine heat waves (MHW’s) exert a substantial impact on human life and ecosystems in the ocean. In the western part of the tropical Atlantic basin, coral reefs are impacted by such events, resulting in coral bleaching and subsequently loss of biodiversity. To mitigate future changes in MHW’s it is detrimental to increase our mechanistic understanding of these events, and this must be investigated on a local scale to understand the smaller scale driving processes of the heat waves, e.g. air-sea interactions, and the spatio-temporal extent on environmental drivers essential for the ecosystem processes.</p><p>Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling system (COAWST), which includes the atmospheric model WRF and the ocean model ROMS (including the Fennel ecosystem module), to dynamically downscale an area consisting of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Our 12 km grid spacing resolves (at least partly) smaller scale phenomena and in combination with the coupling of the ocean and the atmospheric model, it ensures a skilled representation of the air-sea interactions which are important for MHW’s. We will show the results of this decadal climate simulation with regards to generation, evolution and persistence of the MHW’s.</p>

Future Climate and Potential Impacts at the Study Sites

2017 ◽  
pp. 33-78
Author(s):  
Bob van Oort
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
Regional Climate Projections

The chapter opens with statements of uncertainties in climate modelling. Then, the most updated regional climate projections are downscaled by combining them with existing climate data on local level (statistical downscaling) and modified by local conditions (elevation, aspect). Climate scenarios are computed for 2030, 2050 and 2100 for all the six study sites (Chapters 4-9), using a 12 x 12 km grid.

Regional climate modelling in New Zealand

2012 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ackerley ◽  
Dean ◽  
Sood ◽  
Mullan
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Modelling

scholarly journals A regional climate simulation over the Iberian Peninsula for the last millennium

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 451-472 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. J. Gómez-Navarro ◽  
J. P. Montávez ◽  
S. Jerez ◽  
P. Jiménez-Guerrero ◽  
R. Lorente-Plazas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Maunder Minimum ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions

Abstract. A high-resolution (30 km) regional paleoclimate simulation of the last millennium over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) is presented. The simulation was performed with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5 driven by the global model ECHO-G. Both models were driven by the same reconstructions of several external forcing factors. The high spatial resolution of the regional model allows climatologists to realistically simulate many aspects of the climate in the IP, as compared to an observational data set in the reference period 1961–1990. Although the spatial-averaged values developed by the regional model are tightly driven by the boundary conditions, it is capable to develop a different realisation of the past climate at regional scales, especially in the high-frequency domain and for precipitation. This has to be considered when comparing the results of climate simulations versus proxy reconstructions. A preliminary comparison of the simulation results with reconstructions of temperature and precipitation over the IP shows good agreement in the warming trends in the last century of the simulation, although there are large disagreements in key periods such as the precipitation anomalies in the Maunder Minimum.

scholarly journals Evaluation of a new 12 km regional perturbed parameter ensemble over Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon O. Tucker ◽  
Elizabeth J. Kendon ◽  
Nicolas Bellouin ◽  
Erasmo Buonomo ◽  
Ben Johnson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Bias Reduction ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe evaluate a 12-member perturbed parameter ensemble of regional climate simulations over Europe at 12 km resolution, carried out as part of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) project. This ensemble is formed by varying uncertain parameters within the model physics, allowing uncertainty in future projections due to climate modelling uncertainty to be explored in a systematic way. We focus on present day performance both compared to observations, and consistency with the driving global ensemble. Daily and seasonal temperature and precipitation are evaluated as two variables commonly used in impacts assessments. For precipitation we find that downscaling, even whilst within the convection-parameterised regime, generally improves daily precipitation, but not everywhere. In summer, the underestimation of dry day frequency is worse in the regional ensemble than in the driving simulations. For temperature we find that the regional ensemble inherits a large wintertime cold bias from the global model, however downscaling reduces this bias. The largest bias reduction is in daily winter cold temperature extremes. In summer the regional ensemble is cooler and wetter than the driving global models, and we examine cloud and radiation diagnostics to understand the causes of the differences. We also use a low-resolution regional simulation to determine whether the differences are a consequence of resolution, or due to other configuration differences, with the predominant configuration difference being the treatment of aerosols. We find that use of the EasyAerosol scheme in the regional model, which aims to approximate the aerosol effects in the driving model, causes reduced temperatures by around 0.5 K over Eastern Europe in Summer, and warming of a similar magnitude over France and Germany in Winter, relative to the impact of interactive aerosol in the global runs. Precipitation is also increased in these regions. Overall, we find that the regional model is consistent with the global model, but with a typically better representation of daily extremes and consequently we have higher confidence in its projections of their future change.

scholarly journals A regional climate simulation over the Iberian Peninsula for the last millennium

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 2071-2116 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. J. Gómez-Navarro ◽  
J. P. Montávez ◽  
S. Jerez ◽  
P. Jiménez-Guerrero ◽  
R. Lorente-Plazas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions

Abstract. In this study we present a regional paleoclimate simulation which covers the last millennium over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) with an unprecedented resolution of 30 km. The simulation was performed with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5 coupled to the global model ECHO-G. Both experiments were driven by the same reconstructions of several external factors. The high spatial resolution of the regional model allows to simulate realistically many aspects of the climate in the IP when comparing the simulation to an observational data set in a reference period (1961–1990). Although the regional model is strongly driven by the boundary conditions, it is able to develop a different realisation of the past climate, which has a strong impact in those exercises comparing the results of climate simulations versus proxy reconstructions. A preliminary comparison of the simulation results with reconstructions of temperature and precipitation over the IP allows to recognise several aspects where both approaches agree, as well as identify the disagreements and try to point out the possible causes.

scholarly journals A Pan-African Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulation with the Met Office Unified Model: CP4-Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (9) ◽  
pp. 3485-3508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel A. Stratton ◽  
Catherine A. Senior ◽  
Simon B. Vosper ◽  
Sonja S. Folwell ◽  
Ian A. Boutle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Unified Model ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Regional Climate Simulation ◽  
Pan African ◽  
Convection Parameterization ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A convection-permitting multiyear regional climate simulation using the Met Office Unified Model has been run for the first time on an Africa-wide domain. The model has been run as part of the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) Improving Model Processes for African Climate (IMPALA) project, and its configuration, domain, and forcing data are described here in detail. The model [Pan-African Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulation with the Met Office UM (CP4-Africa)] uses a 4.5-km horizontal grid spacing at the equator and is run without a convection parameterization, nested within a global atmospheric model driven by observations at the sea surface, which does include a convection scheme. An additional regional simulation, with identical resolution and physical parameterizations to the global model, but with the domain, land surface, and aerosol climatologies of CP4-Africa, has been run to aid in the understanding of the differences between the CP4-Africa and global model, in particular to isolate the impact of the convection parameterization and resolution. The effect of enforcing moisture conservation in CP4-Africa is described and its impact on reducing extreme precipitation values is assessed. Preliminary results from the first five years of the CP4-Africa simulation show substantial improvements in JJA average rainfall compared to the parameterized convection models, with most notably a reduction in the persistent dry bias in West Africa, giving an indication of the benefits to be gained from running a convection-permitting simulation over the whole African continent.

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