Current Adaptations and Future Prospects of Himalayan Farming

Chapter 10 applies the two methods of comparative case study and cumulative case study to address the three main research questions raised in the introduction. Present adaptations are seen in relation to projected future climate changes and in relation to uncertain production conditions in general. Drivers of change and adaptive capacity are identified, and, lastly, a list of policy options that can enhance adaptive capacity are related to levels of policy management.

Future Climate and Potential Impacts at the Study Sites

The chapter opens with statements of uncertainties in climate modelling. Then, the most updated regional climate projections are downscaled by combining them with existing climate data on local level (statistical downscaling) and modified by local conditions (elevation, aspect). Climate scenarios are computed for 2030, 2050 and 2100 for all the six study sites (Chapters 4-9), using a 12 x 12 km grid.

Introduction

The chapter introduces the topic of the book and three main research questions addressed in the book. The objective is threefold: analysing how various socio-eclogical factors of production interact in concrete places; demonstrate the variations of such interactions along the Himalayan range; and identifying circumstances that increase or hamper adaptive capacity. Furthermore it outlines the methodology applied throughout the book, that is, farming systems approach and multiple case method. It also gives detailed information about types of data collected and methods of data collection.

Stranded between ‘Good Floods’ and ‘Bad Floods’

Lawpani village in Assam is situated in a valley bottom and the present problem is too much water rather than scarcity. Villagers have adapted to normal floods that fertilize soils and make chemical fertilized unnecessary. But a recent major flood resulted in sand-casting of fields and death of livestock. The inhabitants are recent immigrants from Nepal and Bihar who lack the necessary resources to regain their former livelihoods, testifying to the importance of social capital in terms of resilience. The fact that native Assamese never settled on the plain is an index of recurrent damaging floods in the past.

Organic Farmers on the Ridge

Sermathang is a dynamic village that has banned all application of chemical inputs in farming. All organic materials are utilized as manure, including human ‘night soil’. Since Buddhists shall not kill living creatures, wild boars have become the main obstacle to increased productivity on their farms, especially after establishment of the neighbouring Langtang National Park. Quantity of precipitation is not going to change much in Sermathang, but a change from snow to rain will increase run-off and decrease recharging of local aquifers.

From Grain to Grape

In contrast to the other case studies in this book, Bamei agriculture is characterized by strong State intervention. The State regulates market prices, quotas, and land use, thus leaving less room of manoeuvre to farmers. Since agricultural policy was decentralized in China about twenty years ago, the quality of flexibility and adaptive capacity has been relocated from the individual farmer to the District policy level.

Minor Crops and Major Opportunities in Dolakha, Nepal

The village Maina Pokhari in Nepal has experienced a substantial degree of return migration after years of out-migration. Returned migrants take up farming and experiment with new cash crops. These positive signs of development may however be circumscribed by a projected decrease of future precipitation, especially affecting winter crops. A change of crop composition or extended water storage capacity could help the positive development to proceed.

Combining Land and Water in Upper Indus

Villages in Sai catchment in Gilgit-Baltistan were integrated into mainstream Pakistan when the Karakoram Highway was completed in the 1980s. Previous to the road, local food security depended solely on local subsistence production. Now, household food security is more dependent upon purchasing power achieved through outside employment and access to markets on the plains. Food security is vulnerable because the Highway is frequently blocked by natural hazards and political unrest.

Two Kinds of Flexibility

The chapter outlines the theoretical approach applied in the empirical chapters (Chapters 4–9). It defines ‘adaptive capacity’ as a function of flexibility, resilience, and innovation. Special emphasis is given to flexibility. ‘Flexibility of alternation’ is defined as the ability to alternate between known crops and technologies, while ‘flexibility of retention’ refers to the practice of not utilizing production factors maximally in normal years.

Compromised Potentials

Farmers of Salla village in Uttarakhand State in India have great potential of niche products on condition that several obstacles to production is removed, the most serious of which are wild animals, seasonal water scarcity, and improved market access. The danger is that present out-migration will accelerate unless these bottlenecks are attended to, resulting in increasing depopulation and regrowth of agricultural land.