scholarly journals High-resolution modeling the distribution of surface air pollutants and their intercontinental transport by a global tropospheric atmospheric chemistry source-receptor model (GNAQPMS-SM)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Ye ◽  
Jie Li ◽  
Xueshun Chen ◽  
Huansheng Chen ◽  
Wenyi Yang ◽  
...  

Abstract. Many efforts have been devoted to quantifying the impact of intercontinental transport on global air quality by using global chemical transport models with horizontal resolutions of hundreds of kilometers in recent decades. In this study, a global online air quality source-receptor model (GNAQPMS-SM) is designed to effectively compute the contributions of various regions to ambient pollutant concentrations. The newly developed model is able to quantify source-receptor (S-R) relationships in one simulation without introducing errors by nonlinear chemistry, which largely reduces the computation costs compared to the brute force method. We calculate the surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) S-R relationships in 19 regions over the whole globe for ozone, black carbon (BC) and non-sea-salt sulphate (nss-sulphate) by conducting a high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) simulation for the year 2018. The model exhibits a realistic capacity in reproducing the spatial distributions and seasonal variations of tropospheric ozone, carbon monoxide, and aerosols at global and regional scales (Europe, North America and East Asia). The correlation coefficient (R) and normalized mean bias (NMB) for seasonal ozone at global background and urban-rural sites ranged from 0.49 to 0.87 and −2 % to 14.97 %, respectively. For aerosols, the R and NMB in Europe, North America and East Asia mostly exceed 0.6 and are within ±15 %. These statistical parameters based on this global simulation can match those of regional models in key regions. The simulated tropospheric nitrogen dioxide and aerosol optical depths are generally in agreement with satellite observations. The model overestimates ozone mixing ratios in the upper troposphere and stratosphere in the tropics, mid-latitude and polar regions of the Southern Hemisphere due to the use of a simplified stratospheric ozone scheme and/or biases in estimated stratosphere-troposphere exchange dynamics. We find that O3 in the surface layer can travel a long distance and contributes a nonnegligible fraction to downwind regions. Nonlocal source transport explains approximately 35–60 % of surface O3 in East Asia, South Asia, Europe and North America. The O3 exported from Europe can also be transported across the Arctic Ocean to the North Pacific and contributes nearly 5–7.5 % to the North Pacific. BC, as a primary aerosol, is directly linked to local emissions, and each BC source region mainly contributes to itself and surrounding regions. For nss-sulphate, contributions of long-range transport account for 15–30 % within the PBL in East Asia, South Asia, Europe and North America. Our estimated international transport is lower than that from the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP) assessment report in 2010. In this study, local contributions to surface nss-sulphate and BC exceed the ranges given in the HTAP model, while local contributions to nss-sulphate and BC within the PBL are mainly within the ranges. This difference may be related to the different simulation years, emission inventories, horizontal resolutions and S-R revealing methods. The S-R relationship of aerosols within the East Asia subcontinent is also assessed. The model that we developed creates a link between the scientific community and policymakers. Finally, the results are discussed in the context of future model development and analysis opportunities.

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 7573-7604
Author(s):  
Qian Ye ◽  
Jie Li ◽  
Xueshun Chen ◽  
Huansheng Chen ◽  
Wenyi Yang ◽  
...  

Abstract. Many efforts have been devoted to quantifying the impact of intercontinental transport on global air quality by using global chemical transport models with horizontal resolutions of hundreds of kilometers in recent decades. In this study, a global online air quality source–receptor model (GNAQPMS-SM) is designed to effectively compute the contributions of various regions to ambient pollutant concentrations. The newly developed model is able to quantify source–receptor (S-R) relationships in one simulation without introducing errors by nonlinear chemistry. We calculate the surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) S-R relationships in 19 regions over the whole globe for ozone (O3), black carbon (BC), and non-sea-salt sulfate (nss-sulfate) by conducting a high-resolution (0.5&deg &times 0.5&deg) simulation for the year 2018. The model exhibits a realistic capacity in reproducing the spatial distributions and seasonal variations of tropospheric O3, carbon monoxide, and aerosols at global and regional scales – Europe (EUR), North America (NAM), and East Asia (EA). The correlation coefficient (R) and normalized mean bias (NMB) for seasonal O3 at global background and urban–rural sites ranged from 0.49 to 0.87 and −2 % to 14.97 %, respectively. For aerosols, the R and NMB in EUR, NAM, and EA mostly exceed 0.6 and are within ±15 %. These statistical parameters based on this global simulation can match those of regional models in key regions. The simulated tropospheric nitrogen dioxide and aerosol optical depths are generally in agreement with satellite observations. The model overestimates ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere and stratosphere in the tropics, midlatitude, and polar regions of the Southern Hemisphere due to the use of a simplified stratospheric ozone scheme and/or biases in estimated stratosphere–troposphere exchange dynamics. We find that surface O3 can travel a long distance and contributes a non-negligible fraction to downwind regions. Non-local source transport explains approximately 35 %–60 % of surface O3 in EA, South Asia (SAS), EUR, and NAM. The O3 exported from EUR can also be transported across the Arctic Ocean to the North Pacific and contributes nearly 5 %–7.5 % to the North Pacific. BC is directly linked to local emissions, and each BC source region mainly contributes to itself and surrounding regions. For nss-sulfate, contributions of long-range transport account for 15 %–30 % within the PBL in EA, SAS, EUR, and NAM. Our estimated international transport of BC and nss-sulfate is lower than that from the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP) assessment report in 2010, but most surface O3 results are within the range. This difference may be related to the different simulation years, emission inventories, vertical and horizontal resolutions, and S-R revealing methods. Additional emission sensitivity simulation shows a negative O3 response in receptor region EA in January from EA. The difference between two methods in estimated S-R relationships of nss-sulfate and O3 are mainly due to ignoring the nonlinearity of pollutants during chemical processes. The S-R relationship of aerosols within EA subcontinent is also assessed. The model that we developed creates a link between the scientific community and policymakers. Finally, the results are discussed in the context of future model development and analysis opportunities.


2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (11) ◽  
pp. 4423-4434
Author(s):  
Mi-Kyung Sung ◽  
Seok-Woo Son ◽  
Changhyun Yoo ◽  
Jaeyoung Hwang ◽  
Soon-Il An

AbstractIn recent winters, there have been repeated observations of extreme warm and cold spells in the midlatitude countries. This has evoked questions regarding how winter temperature extremes are induced. In this study, we demonstrate that abnormally warm winter weather in East Asia can drive the onset of extremely cold weather in North America approximately one week forward. These seesawing extremes across the basin are mediated by the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), one of the recurrent atmospheric patterns over the North Pacific. Budget analysis of the quasigeostrophic geopotential tendency equation shows that intense thermal advection over East Asia is able to trigger the growth of the NPO. Vorticity fluxes associated with the upper-level stationary trough then strengthen and maintain the NPO against thermal damping following the onset of the NPO. Differential diabatic heating accompanied by changes in circulation also positively contribute to the growth and maintenance of the NPO. These results imply that recurrent cold extremes, seemingly contrary to global warming, may be an inherent feature resulting from strengthening warm extremes.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-43
Author(s):  
Jonathan D. Beverley ◽  
Matthew Collins ◽  
F. Hugo Lambert ◽  
Robin Chadwick

AbstractThe El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual climate variability and it exerts a strong influence on many remote regions of the world, for example in northern North America. Here, we examine future changes to the positive-phase ENSO teleconnection to the North Pacific/North America sector and investigate the mechanisms involved. We find that the positive temperature anomalies over Alaska and northern North America that are associated with an El Niño event in the present day are much weaker, or of the opposite sign, in the CMIP6 abrupt 4×CO2 experiments for almost all models (22 out of 26, of which 15 are statistically significant differences). This is largely related to changes to the anomalous circulation over the North Pacific, rather than differences in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Using a barotropic model, run with different background circulation basic states and Rossby wave source forcing patterns from the individual CMIP6 models, we find that changes to the forcing from the equatorial central Pacific precipitation anomalies are more important than changes in the global basic state background circulation. By further decomposing this forcing change into changes associated with the longitude and magnitude of ENSO precipitation anomalies, we demonstrate that the projected overall eastward shift of ENSO precipitation is the main driver of the temperature teleconnection change, rather than the increase in magnitude of El Niño precipitation anomalies which are, nevertheless, seen in the majority of models.


2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (19) ◽  
pp. 6271-6284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaofan Li ◽  
Zeng-Zhen Hu ◽  
Ping Liang ◽  
Jieshun Zhu

Abstract In this work, the roles of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the variability and predictability of the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern and precipitation in North America in winter are examined. It is noted that statistically about 29% of the variance of PNA is linearly linked to ENSO, while the remaining 71% of the variance of PNA might be explained by other processes, including atmospheric internal dynamics and sea surface temperature variations in the North Pacific. The ENSO impact is mainly meridional from the tropics to the mid–high latitudes, while a major fraction of the non-ENSO variability associated with PNA is confined in the zonal direction from the North Pacific to the North American continent. Such interferential connection on PNA as well as on North American climate variability may reflect a competition between local internal dynamical processes (unpredictable fraction) and remote forcing (predictable fraction). Model responses to observed sea surface temperature and model forecasts confirm that the remote forcing is mainly associated with ENSO and it is the major source of predictability of PNA and winter precipitation in North America.


2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 1691-1706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shizuo Liu ◽  
Qigang Wu ◽  
Steven R. Schroeder ◽  
Yonghong Yao ◽  
Yang Zhang ◽  
...  

AbstractPrevious studies show that there are substantial influences of winter–spring Tibetan Plateau (TP) snow anomalies on the Asian summer monsoon and that autumn–winter TP heavy snow can lead to persisting hemispheric Pacific–North America-like responses. This study further investigates global atmospheric responses to realistic extensive spring TP snow anomalies using observations and ensemble transient model integrations. Model ensemble simulations are forced by satellite-derived observed March–May TP snow cover extent and snow water equivalent in years with heavy or light TP snow. Heavy spring TP snow causes simultaneous significant local surface cooling and precipitation decreases over and near the TP snow anomaly. Distant responses include weaker surface cooling over most Asian areas surrounding the TP, a weaker drying band extending east and northeast into the North Pacific Ocean, and increased precipitation in a region surrounding this drying band. Also, there is tropospheric cooling from the TP into the North Pacific and over most of North America and the North Atlantic Ocean. The TP snow anomaly induces a negative North Pacific Oscillation/western Pacific–like teleconnection response throughout the troposphere and stratosphere. Atmospheric responses also include significantly increased Pacific trade winds, a strengthened intertropical convergence zone over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and an enhanced local Hadley circulation. This result suggests a near-global impact of the TP snow anomaly in nearly all seasons.


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