Update on GRACE/GRACE-FO continuity in mass loss of the glaciers and big ice sheets.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabella Velicogna ◽  
Mohajerani Yara ◽  
Enrico Ciraci ◽  
Felix Landerer ◽  
David Wiese
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ice Caps

<p>The GRACE missions have changed the way that we measure mass changes of ice sheets, glaciers and ice caps, with quantied uncertainties that factor processing errors, atmospheric and oceanic corrections, and removal of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). We present GRACE/GRACE-FO estimates of mass balance over the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and the World’s glaciers and ice caps (GIC). The data gap between missions is filled with GRACE-calibrated results from the input-output method for ice sheets and surface mass balance (SMB) reconstructions from regional atmospheric climate models and MERRA-2 reanalysis data for the glaciers and ice caps. Over Greenland, we report low losses during the cold years of 2017-2018 followed by record melt in 2019 and an onset of rapid melt for 2020. As warm air and ocean masses get blocked over Greenland more frequently because of interactions between the wobbling jet stream and topography, we observe more high melt events in this decade than recorded in prior centuries. In Antarctica, the ongoing rapid loss in West Antarctica dominates the mass balance, but we observe a steady increase in snowfall in the Atlantic sector of East Antarctica. The exercise provides a mass balance record that can be continuously improved with better corrections and improved processing, with reduced errors, so that we can provide better constraints for ice sheet models in charge of sea level projections and improve the validation of various Earth system models and global climate models.</p>

Reconstructing the distribution of surface mass balance over East Antarctica (DML) from 1850 to present day

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Ghilain ◽  
Stéphane Vannitsem ◽  
Quentin Dalaiden ◽  
Hugues Goosse
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass

<p>Over recent decades, the Antarctic Ice Sheet has witnessed large spatial variations at its surface through the surface mass balance (SMB). Since the complex Antarctic topography, working at high resolution is crucial to represent accurately the dynamics of SMB. While ice cores provide a mean to infer the SMB over centuries, the view is very spatially constrained. Global Climate models estimate the spatial distribution of SMB over centuries, but with a too coarse resolution with regards to the large variations due to local orographic effects. We have therefore explored a methodology to statistically downscale the SMB components from the climate model historical simulations (1850-present day). An analogue method is set up over a period of 30 years with the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979-2010 AD) and associated with SMB components from the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) at 5 km spatial resolution over Dronning Maud in East Antarctica. The same method is then applied to the period from 1850 to present days using an ensemble of 10 simulations from the CESM2 model. This method enables to derive a spatial distribution of SMB. In addition, the changes in precipitation delivery mechanisms can be unveiled.</p>

scholarly journals Driving a high-resolution dynamic ice-sheet model with GCM climate: ice-sheet initiation at 116 000 BP

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 296-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Pollard ◽  
Starley L. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Elevation Correction

AbstractMost dynamic ice-sheet studies currently use either empirically based parameterizations or simple energy-balance climate models for the surface mass-balance forcing. If three-dimensional global climate models (GCMs) could be used instead, they would greatly improve the potential realism of coupled climate ice-sheet simulations. However, there are two serious problems in simulating realistic mass balances on ice sheets from GCM simulations: (i) dynamic ice-sheet models and the underlying bedrock topography need horizontal resolution of 50–100 km or less, but the finest practical resolution of atmospheric GCMs is currently ˜250 km, and (ii) GCM surface physics usually neglects the local refreezing of meltwater on ice sheets.Two techniques are described that address these problems: an elevation correction applied to the atmospheric GCM fields interpolated to the ice-sheet grid, and a refreezing correction involving the annual totals of snowfall, rainfall and local melt at each grid-point. As an example of their use, we have used the GENESIS version 2 GCM at 3.75° × 3.75° resolution to simulate the climate at the end of the last interglaciation at ˜116 000 years ago. The atmospheric climate is then used to drive a standard two-dimensional dynamic ice-sheet model for 10 000 years on a 0.5° × 0.5° grid spanning northern North America. The model successfully predicts ice-sheet initiation over the Baffin Island highlands and the Canadian Archipelago, but at a slower rate than observed. A large ice sheet nucleates and grows rapidly over the northwestern Rockies, in conflict with geologic evidence. Possible reasons for these discrepancies are discussed.

scholarly journals High resolution (1 km) positive degree-day modelling of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance, 1870–2012 using reanalysis data

2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (237) ◽  
pp. 176-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAVID J. WILTON ◽  
AMY JOWETT ◽  
EDWARD HANNA ◽  
GRANT R. BIGG ◽  
MICHIEL R. VAN DEN BROEKE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Positive Degree

ABSTRACTWe show results from a positive degree-day (PDD) model of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB), 1870–2012, forced with reanalysis data. The model includes an improved daily temperature parameterization as compared with a previous version and is run at 1 km rather than 5 km resolution. The improvements lead overall to higher SMB with the same forcing data. We also compare our model with results from two regional climate models (RCMs). While there is good qualitative agreement between our PDD model and the RCMs, it usually results in lower precipitation and lower runoff but approximately equivalent SMB: mean 1979–2012 SMB (± standard deviation), in Gt a−1, is 382 ± 78 in the PDD model, compared with 379 ± 101 and 425 ± 90 for the RCMs. Comparison with in situ SMB observations suggests that the RCMs may be more accurate than PDD at local level, in some areas, although the latter generally compares well. Dividing the GrIS into seven drainage basins we show that SMB has decreased sharply in all regions since 2000. Finally we show correlation between runoff close to two calving glaciers and either calving front retreat or calving flux, this being most noticeable from the mid-1990s.

Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Representation in Global Climate Models: Twenty Years of Improvements?

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 8823-8840 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Davini ◽  
Fabio D’Andrea
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Main Concern ◽  
Atmospheric Blocking ◽  
Atlantic Sector

Abstract The correct simulation of midlatitude atmospheric blocking has always been a main concern since the earliest days of numerical modeling of Earth’s atmosphere. To this day blocking represents a considerable source of error for general circulation models from both a numerical weather prediction and a climate perspective. In the present work, 20 years of global climate model (GCM) developments are analyzed from the special point of view of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking simulation. Making use of a series of equivalent metrics, three generations of GCMs are compared. This encompasses a total of 95 climate models, many of which are different—successive—versions of the same model. Results from model intercomparison projects AMIP1 (1992), CMIP3 (2007), and CMIP5 (2012) are taken into consideration. Although large improvements are seen over the Pacific Ocean, only minor advancements have been achieved over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Some of the most recent GCMs still exhibit the same negative bias as 20 years ago in this region, associated with large geopotential height systematic errors. Some individual models, nevertheless, have improved and do show good performances in both sectors. Negligible differences emerge among ocean-coupled or atmosphere-only simulations, suggesting weak relevance of sea surface temperature biases. Conversely, increased horizontal resolution seems to be able to alleviate the Euro-Atlantic blocking bias.

scholarly journals Influence of albedo parameterization on surface mass balance in the perspective of Greenland ice sheet modelling in EC-Earth

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michiel Helsen ◽  
Roderik Van de Wal ◽  
Thomas Reerink ◽  
Richard Bintanja ◽  
Marianne Sloth Madsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. The albedo of the surface of ice sheets changes as a function of time, due to the effects of deposition of new snow, ageing of dry snow, melting and runoff. Currently, the calculation of the albedo of ice sheets is highly parameterized within the Earth System Model EC-Earth, by taking a constant value for areas with thick perennial snow cover. This is one of the reasons that the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is poorly resolved in the model. To improve this, eight snow albedo schemes are evaluated here. The resulting SMB is downscaled from the lower resolution global climate model topography to the higher resolution ice sheet topography of the GrIS, such that the influence of these different SMB climatologies on the long-term evolution of the GrIS is tested by ice sheet model simulations. This results in an optimised albedo parameterization that can be used in future EC-Earth simulations with an interactive ice sheet component.

scholarly journals Downscale of future climate change scenarios applied to Recife-PE

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 361
Author(s):  
Rafaela Lisboa Costa ◽  
Heliofábio Barros Gomes ◽  
Fabrício Daniel Dos Santos Silva ◽  
Rodrigo Lins Da Rocha Júnior
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

The objective of this work was to analyze and compare results from two generations of global climate models (GCMs) simulations for the city of Recife-PE: CMIP3 and CMIP5. Differences and similarities in historical and future climate simulations are presented for four GCMs using CMIP3 scenarios A1B and A2 and for seven CMIP5 scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The scale reduction technique applied to GCMs scenarios is statistical downscaling, employing the same set of large-scale atmospheric variables as predictors for both sets of scenarios, differing only in the type of reanalysis data used to characterize surface variables precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures. For CMIP3 scenarios the simulated historical climate is 1961-1990 and CMIP5 is 1979-2000, and the validation period is ten years, 1991-2000 for CMIP3 and 2001-2010 for CMIP5. However, for both the future period analyzed is 2021-2050 and 2051-2080. Validation metrics indicated superior results from the historical simulations of CMIP5 over those of CMIP3 for precipitation and minimum and similar temperatures for maximum temperatures. For the future, both CMIP3 and CMIP5 scenarios indicate reduced precipitation and increased temperatures. The potencial evapotranspiration was calculated, projected to increase in scenarios A1B and A2 of CMIP3 and with behavior similar to that observed historically in scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5.

scholarly journals The representation of Northern Hemisphere blocking in current global climate models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhard Schiemann ◽  
Panos Athanasiadis ◽  
David Barriopedro ◽  
Francisco Doblas-Reyes ◽  
Katja Lohmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Blocking Index

Abstract. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are known to suffer from biases in the simulation of atmospheric blocking, and this study provides an assessment of how blocking is represented by the latest generation of GCMs. It is evaluated (i) how historical CMIP6 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) simulations perform compared to CMIP5 simulations, and (ii) how horizontal model resolution affects the simulation of blocking in the CMIP6-HighResMIP (PRIMAVERA) model ensemble, which is designed to address this type of question. Two blocking indices are used to evaluate the simulated mean blocking frequency and blocking persistence for the Euro-Atlantic and Pacific regions in winter and summer against the corresponding estimates from atmospheric reanalysis data. There is robust evidence that CMIP6 models simulate blocking frequency and persistence better than CMIP5 models in the Atlantic and Pacific and in winter and summer. This improvement is sizeable so that, for example, winter blocking frequency in the median CMIP5 model in a large Euro-Atlantic domain is underestimated by 32 % using the absolute geopotential height (AGP) blocking index, whereas the same number is 19 % for the median CMIP6 model. As for the sensitivity of simulated blocking to resolution, it is found that the resolution increase, from typically 100 km to 20 km grid spacing, in the PRIMAVERA models, which are not re-tuned at the higher resolutions, benefits the mean blocking frequency in the Atlantic in winter and summer, and in the Pacific in summer. Simulated blocking persistence, however, is not seen to improve with resolution. Our results are consistent with previous studies suggesting that resolution is one of a number of interacting factors necessary for an adequate simulation of blocking in GCMs. The improvements reported in this study hold promise for further reductions in blocking biases as model development continues.

scholarly journals Glacial Inception on Baffin Island: The Interaction of Ice Flow and Meteorology

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leah Birch ◽  
Timothy Cronin ◽  
Eli Tziperman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Baffin Island ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Geological Evidence ◽  
Ice Caps ◽  
Outer Domain

Abstract. Over the past 0.8 million years, 100 kyr ice ages have dominated Earth's climate with geological evidence suggesting the last glacial inception began in the mountains of Baffin Island. Currently, state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) have difficulty simulating glacial inception, possibly due in part to their coarse horizontal resolution and the neglect of ice flow dynamics in some models. We attempt to address the initial inception problem on Baffin Island by asynchronously coupling the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF), configured as a high resolution inner domain over Baffin and an outer domain incorporating much of North America, to an ice flow model using the shallow ice approximation. The mass balance is calculated from WRF simulations, and used to drive the ice model, which updates the ice extent and elevation, that then serve as inputs to the next WRF run. We drive the regional WRF configuration using atmospheric boundary conditions from 1986 that correspond to a relatively cold summer, and with 115 kya insolation. Initially, ice accumulates on mountain glaciers, driving downslope ice flow which expands the size of the ice caps. However, continued iterations of the atmosphere and ice models reveal a stagnation of the ice sheet on Baffin Island, driven by melting due to warmer temperatures at the margins of the ice caps. This warming is caused by changes in the larger-scale circulation that are forced by elevation changes due to the ice growth. A stabilizing feedback between ice elevation and atmospheric circulation thus prevents full inception from occurring.

The Role of Mesoscale Cellular Convective Cloud Morphologies in Low Cloud Feedbacks 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel L. McCoy ◽  
Daniel T. McCoy ◽  
Robert Wood ◽  
Paquita Zuidema ◽  
Frida A.-M. Bender
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Convective Cloud ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Liquid Water Path ◽  
Radiative Impacts ◽  
Low Cloud

<p>Mesoscale cellular convective (MCC) clouds occur in large-scale patterns over the ocean, are prevalent in sub-tropical cloud regions and mid-latitudes, and have important radiative impacts on the climate system. On average, closed MCC clouds have higher albedos than open or disorganized MCC clouds for the same cloud fraction which suggests differences in micro- and macro-physical characteristics between MCC morphologies. Marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) influence the development of open MCC clouds and the transition from closed to open MCC clouds in the mid-latitudes. A MCAO index, M, combines atmospheric surface forcing and static stability and can be used to examine global MCC morphology dependencies. MCC cloud morphology occurrence is also expected to shift with sea surface temperature (SST) changes as the climate warms. Analysis of MCC identifications (derived from a neural network classifier applied to MODIS satellite collection 6 liquid water path retrievals) and ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data shows that closed MCC cloud occurrence shifts to open or disorganized MCC within an M-SST space. Global climate models (GCMs) predict that M will change regionally in strength as SSTs increase. Based on our derived MCC-M-SST relationship in the current climate, closed MCC occurrence frequency is expected to increase with a weakening of M but decrease with an increase in SSTs. This results in a shift to cloud morphologies with lower albedos. Cloud controlling factor analysis is used to estimate the resulting low cloud morphology feedback which is found to be spatially varied and between ±0.15 W m<sup>-2</sup> K<sup>-1</sup>. Because the morphology feedback is estimated to be positive in the extra-tropics and is not currently represented in GCMs, this implies a higher climate sensitivity than GCMs currently estimate.</p>

scholarly journals A synthesis of the Antarctic surface mass balance during the last 800 yr

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 303-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Frezzotti ◽  
C. Scarchilli ◽  
S. Becagli ◽  
M. Proposito ◽  
S. Urbini
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Blowing Snow ◽  
High Accumulation ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Past

Abstract. Global climate models suggest that Antarctic snowfall should increase in a warming climate and mitigate rises in the sea level. Several processes affect surface mass balance (SMB), introducing large uncertainties in past, present and future ice sheet mass balance. To provide an extended perspective on the past SMB of Antarctica, we used 67 firn/ice core records to reconstruct the temporal variability in the SMB over the past 800 yr and, in greater detail, over the last 200 yr. Our SMB reconstructions indicate that the SMB changes over most of Antarctica are statistically negligible and that the current SMB is not exceptionally high compared to the last 800 yr. High-accumulation periods have occurred in the past, specifically during the 1370s and 1610s. However, a clear increase in accumulation of more than 10% has occurred in high SMB coastal regions and over the highest part of the East Antarctic ice divide since the 1960s. To explain the differences in behaviour between the coastal/ice divide sites and the rest of Antarctica, we suggest that a higher frequency of blocking anticyclones increases the precipitation at coastal sites, leading to the advection of moist air in the highest areas, whereas blowing snow and/or erosion have significant negative impacts on the SMB at windy sites. Eight hundred years of stacked records of the SMB mimic the total solar irradiance during the 13th and 18th centuries. The link between those two variables is probably indirect and linked to a teleconnection in atmospheric circulation that forces complex feedback between the tropical Pacific and Antarctica via the generation and propagation of a large-scale atmospheric wave train.

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