scholarly journals Increase in surface runoff in the central mountains of Mexico: lessons from the past and predictive scenario for the next century

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 291-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Gratiot ◽  
C. Duvert ◽  
L. Collet ◽  
D. Vinson ◽  
J. Némery ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Hydrograph Separation ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
The Past ◽  
Mountainous Watershed

Abstract. The hydrological response of a medium scale mountainous watershed (Mexico) is analysed over half a century. The hydrograph separation highlights an increasing surface runoff contribution since the early 1970's. This increase is attributed to land use changes while the meteorological forcing (rains) remains statistically stable over the same period. As a consequence, the intensity of annual extreme floods has tripled up over the period of survey, increasing flood risks in the region. The paper ends with a climatic projection over the 21st century. The decrease of precipitation and the increase of temperature should accentuate the trend engaged since the 1970's by reducing groundwater resources and increasing surface-runoff and associated risks.

scholarly journals Increase in surface runoff in the central mountains of Mexico: lessons from the past and predictive scenario for the next century

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 6865-6893
Author(s):  
N. Gratiot ◽  
C. Duvert ◽  
L. Collet ◽  
D. Vinson ◽  
J. Némery ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Hydrograph Separation ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
The Past ◽  
Mountainous Watershed

Abstract. The hydrological response of a medium scale mountainous watershed (Mexico) is analysed over half a century. The hydrograph separation highlights an increasing surface runoff contribution since the early 1970's. This increase is attributed to land use changes while the meteorological forcing (rains) remains statistically stable over the same period. As a consequence, the intensity of annual extreme floods has tripled up over the period of survey, increasing flood risks in the region. The paper ends with a climatic projection over the 21st century. The decrease of precipitation and the increase of temperature should accentuate the trend engaged since the 1970's by reducing groundwater resources and increasing surface-runoff and associated risks.

Hydrological effects of climate and land use changes in regulated vs. unregulated headwaters of Southern Calabria  

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Demetrio Antonio Zema ◽  
Giuseppe Bombino ◽  
Bruno Gianmarco Carrà ◽  
Daniela D'agostino ◽  
Pietro Denisi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Land Uses ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Check Dams ◽  
Hydrological Effects

<p>Surface runoff rates in torrents are driven by land use and climate changes. Moreover, the effects of control works, such as the check dams, can modify these rates. In the Mediterranean semi-arid watersheds (e.g., in Southern Italy and Spain), this forcing may sum to local factors, such as steep slopes, small drainage areas and heavy and short-duration rainstorms. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the hydrological effects of each action (presence of check dam, land use changes and future climate forcing), in order to control flash floods, soil erosion and landslides at the watershed scale. To this aim, this study evaluates the annual runoff rates in two headwaters of Southern Italy, mainly forested and agricultural, using a modeling approach. More specifically, the well-known Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is applied to Vacale (12.5 sq. km) torrent, regulated by check dams built in ‘1950-1960, and Serra torrent (13.7 sq. km), not regulated. Both sub-watersheds experienced an increase in forest cover up to 70%, while the agricultural land decreased by about 30% of the total area in the period after the construction of the control works until now. Previously, the model was calibrated in a third torrent (Duverso, 12.5 sq. km, gauged for runoff measurements), with the same climatic and geomorphological characteristics, using the automatic calibration by the SWATCUP program. After calibration, SWAT simulated the hydrological response under different land uses (forest, pasture and bare soil, the latter simulating total deforestation) and climate change scenarios (applying a Global Circulation Model, under 2.6 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways) throughout the next 80 years. The results of this modeling experience showed that: (i) the presence of check dams noticeably reduced the hydrological response of the regulated headwater compared to the torrent without check dams; (ii) the vegetal cover of the forestland has been the most important factor in mitigating the surface runoff rate in comparison to the other land uses; (iii) under the future climate change scenarios, the surface runoff will increase with increasing mean temperatures and precipitation intensity. The model outputs help supporting a better understanding on the impacts of control works as well as land use and climate changes on the runoff generation capacity in Mediterranean torrents. These indications are useful to watershed managers in the adoption of the most effective strategy to mitigate flash flood hazards and heavy erosion risks in similar environmental contexts. </p><p>Acknowledgement: This research was funded by ERDF/Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities-State Research Agency (AEI) /Project CGL2017-84625-C2-1-R; State Program for Research, Development and Innovation Focused on the Challenges of Society.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Estimating surface runoff and groundwater recharge in an urban catchment using a water balance approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (7) ◽  
pp. 2411-2428
Author(s):  
Robin K. Weatherl ◽  
Maria J. Henao Salgado ◽  
Maximilian Ramgraber ◽  
Christian Moeck ◽  
Mario Schirmer
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Curve Number ◽  
Hydrograph Separation ◽  
Balance Approach

AbstractLand-use changes often have significant impact on the water cycle, including changing groundwater/surface-water interactions, modifying groundwater recharge zones, and increasing risk of contamination. Surface runoff in particular is significantly impacted by land cover. As surface runoff can act as a carrier for contaminants found at the surface, it is important to characterize runoff dynamics in anthropogenic environments. In this study, the relationship between surface runoff and groundwater recharge in urban areas is explored using a top-down water balance approach. Two empirical models were used to estimate runoff: (1) an updated, advanced method based on curve number, followed by (2) bivariate hydrograph separation. Modifications were added to each method in an attempt to better capture continuous soil-moisture processes and explicitly account for runoff from impervious surfaces. Differences between the resulting runoff estimates shed light on the complexity of the rainfall–runoff relationship, and highlight the importance of understanding soil-moisture dynamics and their control on hydro(geo)logical responses. These results were then used as input in a water balance to calculate groundwater recharge. Two approaches were used to assess the accuracy of these groundwater balance estimates: (1) comparison to calculations of groundwater recharge using the calibrated conceptual HBV Light model, and (2) comparison to groundwater recharge estimates from physically similar catchments in Switzerland that are found in the literature. In all cases, recharge is estimated at approximately 40–45% of annual precipitation. These conditions were found to closely echo those results from Swiss catchments of similar characteristics.

scholarly journals Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a CA-Markov Model under Two Different Scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rahel Hamad ◽  
Heiko Balzter ◽  
Kamal Kolo
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
The Past ◽  
Past Trend

Multi-temporal Landsat images from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) acquired in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) from 2017, are used for analysing and predicting the spatio-temporal distributions of land use/land cover (LULC) categories in the Halgurd-Sakran Core Zone (HSCZ) of the National Park in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. The aim of this article was to explore the LULC dynamics in the HSCZ to assess where LULC changes are expected to occur under two different business-as-usual (BAU) assumptions. Two scenarios have been assumed in the present study. The first scenario, addresses the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 1993–1998–2003 has continued until 2023 under continuing the United Nations (UN) sanctions against Iraq and particularly Kurdistan region, which extended from 1990 to 2003. Whereas, the second scenario represents the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 2003–2008–2017 has to continue until 2023, viz. after the end of UN sanctions. Future land use changes are simulated to the year 2023 using a Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain model under two different scenarios (Iraq under siege and Iraq after siege). Four LULC classes were classified from Landsat using Random Forest (RF). Their accuracy was evaluated using κ and overall accuracy. The CA-Markov chain method in TerrSet is applied based on the past trends of the land use changes from 1993 to 1998 for the first scenario and from 2003 to 2008 for the second scenario. Based on this model, predicted land use maps for the 2023 are generated. Changes between two BAU scenarios under two different conditions have been quantitatively as well as spatially analysed. Overall, the results suggest a trend towards stable and homogeneous areas in the next 6 years as shown in the second scenario. This situation will have positive implication on the park.

scholarly journals Modelling monthly runoff generation processes following land use changes: groundwater–surface runoff interactions

2004 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 903-922 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Bari ◽  
K. R. J. Smettem
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Mean Annual Rainfall ◽  
Monthly Runoff ◽  
Stream Bed

Abstract. A conceptual water balance model is presented to represent changes in monthly water balance following land use changes. Monthly rainfall–runoff, groundwater and soil moisture data from four experimental catchments in Western Australia have been analysed. Two of these catchments, "Ernies" (control, fully forested) and "Lemon" (54% cleared) are in a zone of mean annual rainfall of 725 mm, while "Salmon" (control, fully forested) and "Wights" (100% cleared) are in a zone with mean annual rainfall of 1125 mm. At the Salmon forested control catchment, streamflow comprises surface runoff, base flow and interflow components. In the Wights catchment, cleared of native forest for pasture development, all three components increased, groundwater levels rose significantly and stream zone saturated area increased from 1% to 15% of the catchment area. It took seven years after clearing for the rainfall–runoff generation process to stabilise in 1984. At the Ernies forested control catchment, the permanent groundwater system is 20 m below the stream bed and so does not contribute to streamflow. Following partial clearing of forest in the Lemon catchment, groundwater rose steadily and reached the stream bed by 1987. The streamflow increased in two phases: (i) immediately after clearing due to reduced evapotranspiration, and (ii) through an increase in the groundwater-induced stream zone saturated area after 1987. After analysing all the data available, a conceptual monthly model was created, comprising four inter-connecting stores: (i) an upper zone unsaturated store, (ii) a transient stream zone store, (ii) a lower zone unsaturated store and (iv) a saturated groundwater store. Data such as rooting depth, Leaf Area Index, soil porosity, profile thickness, depth to groundwater, stream length and surface slope were incorporated into the model as a priori defined attributes. The catchment average values for different stores were determined through matching observed and predicted monthly hydrographs. The observed and predicted monthly runoff for all catchments matched well with coefficients of determination (R2) ranging from 0.68 to 0.87. Predictions were relatively poor for: (i) the Ernies catchment (lowest rainfall, forested), and (ii) months with very high flows. Overall, the predicted mean annual streamflow was within ±8% of the observed values. Keywords: monthly streamflow, land use change, conceptual model, data-based approach, groundwater

scholarly journals The effect of land uses to change on infiltration capacity and surface runoff at latung sub watershed, Padang City Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 331 ◽  
pp. 08002
Author(s):  
Rusli HAR ◽  
Aprisal ◽  
Werry Darta Taifur ◽  
Teguh Haria Aditia Putra
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Curve Number ◽  
Soil Infiltration ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Rainwater Infiltration ◽  
Double Ring ◽  
Hydrology Modeling ◽  
Runoff Discharge

Changes in land use in the Air Dingin watershed (DAS) area in Padang City, Indonesia, lead to a decrease in rainwater infiltration volume to the ground. Some land use in the Latung sub-watershed decrease in infiltration capacity with an increase in surface runoff. This research aims to determine the effect of land-use changes on infiltration capacity and surface runoff. Purposive sampling method was used in this research. The infiltration capacity was measured directly in the field using a double-ring infiltrometer, and the data was processed using the Horton model. The obtained capacity was quantitatively classified using infiltration zoning. Meanwhile, the Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrology Modeling System with the Synthetic Unit Hydrograph- Soil Conservation Service -Curve Number method was used to analyze the runoff discharge. The results showed that from the 13 measurement points carried out, the infiltration capacity ranges from 0.082 - 0.70 cm/minute or an average of 0.398 cm/minute, while the rainwater volume is approximately 150,000 m3/hour/km2. Therefore, the soil infiltration capacity in the Latung sub-watershed is in zone VI-B or very low. This condition had an impact on changes in runoff discharge in this area, from 87.84 m3/second in 2010 to 112.8 m3/second in 2020 or a nail of 22.13%. Based on the results, it is concluded that changes in the land led to low soil infiltration capacity, thereby leading to an increase in surface runoff.

scholarly journals What the past suggests about future development of ecosystem service values applicable to USDA agricultural program evaluations

2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-22
Author(s):  
LeRoy T. Hansen
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Ecosystem Service ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Program Evaluations ◽  
The Past ◽  
Limited Applicability ◽  
Program Benefit

Much of the research on ecosystem service values (ESVs) has limited applicability to USDA program benefit analyses, largely because the models/data/results (1) lack spatial breadth and hence cannot be applied in national analyses of USDA programs, and (2) do not link land use changes to the changes in ESs. This article provides an overview of a set of 15 ESVs related to agriculture's impacts on erosion in order to identify (1) weaknesses in methods, data, and assumptions that limit the quality of the ESVs and means of avoiding such weaknesses in future ESV development, and (2) approaches that might improve the reliability and spatial resolution of future ESV estimates.

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