scholarly journals Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling in the presence of observation bias

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 2103-2118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jørn Rasmussen ◽  
Henrik Madsen ◽  
Karsten Høgh Jensen ◽  
Jens Christian Refsgaard
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Optimal Parameter ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Bias Estimation ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Stream Discharge ◽  
Groundwater Head ◽  
Observation Bias

Abstract. The use of bias-aware Kalman filters for estimating and correcting observation bias in groundwater head observations is evaluated using both synthetic and real observations. In the synthetic test, groundwater head observations with a constant bias and unbiased stream discharge observations are assimilated in a catchment-scale integrated hydrological model with the aim of updating stream discharge and groundwater head, as well as several model parameters relating to both streamflow and groundwater modelling. The coloured noise Kalman filter (ColKF) and the separate-bias Kalman filter (SepKF) are tested and evaluated for correcting the observation biases. The study found that both methods were able to estimate most of the biases and that using any of the two bias estimation methods resulted in significant improvements over using a bias-unaware Kalman filter. While the convergence of the ColKF was significantly faster than the convergence of the SepKF, a much larger ensemble size was required as the estimation of biases would otherwise fail. Real observations of groundwater head and stream discharge were also assimilated, resulting in improved streamflow modelling in terms of an increased Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient while no clear improvement in groundwater head modelling was observed. Both the ColKF and the SepKF tended to underestimate the biases, which resulted in drifting model behaviour and sub-optimal parameter estimation, but both methods provided better state updating and parameter estimation than using a bias-unaware filter.

scholarly journals Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling in the presence of observation bias

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 8131-8173 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Rasmussen ◽  
H. Madsen ◽  
K. H. Jensen ◽  
J. C. Refsgaard
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Groundwater Modeling ◽  
Optimal Parameter ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Stream Discharge ◽  
Groundwater Head ◽  
Observation Bias

Abstract. The use of bias-aware Kalman filters for estimating and correcting observation bias in groundwater head observations is evaluated using both synthetic and real observations. In the synthetic test, groundwater head observations with a constant bias and unbiased stream discharge observations are assimilated in a catchment scale integrated hydrological model with the aim of updating stream discharge and groundwater head, as well as several model parameters relating to both stream flow and groundwater modeling. The Colored Noise Kalman filter (ColKF) and the Separate bias Kalman filter (SepKF) are tested and evaluated for correcting the observation biases. The study found that both methods were able to estimate most of the biases and that using any of the two bias estimation methods resulted in significant improvements over using a bias-unaware Kalman Filter. While the convergence of the ColKF was significantly faster than the convergence of the SepKF, a much larger ensemble size was required as the estimation of biases would otherwise fail. Real observations of groundwater head and stream discharge were also assimilated, resulting in improved stream flow modeling in terms of an increased Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient while no clear improvement in groundwater head modeling was observed. Both the ColKF and the SepKF tended to underestimate the biases, which resulted in drifting model behavior and sub-optimal parameter estimation, but both methods provided better state updating and parameter estimation than using a bias-unaware filter.

Parameter estimation using relay feedback

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 505-529
Author(s):  
Kalpana Dharmalingam ◽  
Thyagarajan Thangavelu
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Closed Loop ◽  
Parametric Estimation ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Relay Feedback ◽  
Research Activity ◽  
Process Industries ◽  
Single Input Single Output ◽  
Estimation Techniques

Abstract In process industries, closed-loop step and closed-loop relay feedback tests are popularly used for estimating model parameters. In this paper, different methods available in the literature for parameter estimation using conventional techniques and techniques based on relay feedback test are surveyed by reviewing around 152 research articles published during the past three decades. Through a comprehensive survey of available literature, the parameter estimation methods are classified into two broad groups, namely conventional techniques and relay-based parametric estimation techniques. These relay-based techniques are further classified into two subgroups, namely single-input-single-output (SISO) systems and multi-input-multi-output systems (both square and nonsquare), and are revealed in a lucid manner with the help of benchmark examples and case studies. For the above categorized methods, the procedural steps involved in relay-based parametric estimation methods are also presented. To facilitate the readers, comparison tables are included to comprehend the results of different parametric estimation techniques available in the literature. The incorporation of quantitative and qualitative analysis of papers published in various journals in the above area with the help of pie charts and graphs would enable the readers to grasp the overview of the research activity being carried out in the relay feedback domain. At the end, the challenging issues in relay-based parametric estimation methods and the directions for future investigations that can be explored are also highlighted.

scholarly journals Application of ensemble transform data assimilation methods for parameter estimation in reservoir modeling

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 731-746 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangeetika Ruchi ◽  
Svetlana Dubinkina
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Particle Filter ◽  
Reservoir Modeling ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Uncertain Parameters ◽  
Initial Ensemble ◽  
Leading Mode ◽  
Ensemble Transform

Abstract. Over the years data assimilation methods have been developed to obtain estimations of uncertain model parameters by taking into account a few observations of a model state. The most reliable Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are computationally expensive. Sequential ensemble methods such as ensemble Kalman filters and particle filters provide a favorable alternative. However, ensemble Kalman filter has an assumption of Gaussianity. Ensemble transform particle filter does not have this assumption and has proven to be highly beneficial for an initial condition estimation and a small number of parameter estimations in chaotic dynamical systems with non-Gaussian distributions. In this paper we employ ensemble transform particle filter (ETPF) and ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) for parameter estimation in nonlinear problems with 1, 5, and 2500 uncertain parameters and compare them to importance sampling (IS). The large number of uncertain parameters is of particular interest for subsurface reservoir modeling as it allows us to parameterize permeability on the grid. We prove that the updated parameters obtained by ETPF lie within the range of an initial ensemble, which is not the case for ETKF. We examine the performance of ETPF and ETKF in a twin experiment setup, where observations of pressure are synthetically created based on the known values of parameters. For a small number of uncertain parameters (one and five) ETPF performs comparably to ETKF in terms of the mean estimation. For a large number of uncertain parameters (2500) ETKF is robust with respect to the initial ensemble, while ETPF is sensitive due to sampling error. Moreover, for the high-dimensional test problem ETPF gives an increase in the root mean square error after data assimilation is performed. This is resolved by applying distance-based localization, which however deteriorates a posterior estimation of the leading mode by largely increasing the variance due to a combination of less varying localized weights, not keeping the imposed bounds on the modes via the Karhunen–Loeve expansion, and the main variability explained by the leading mode. A possible remedy is instead of applying localization to use only leading modes that are well estimated by ETPF, which demands knowledge of which mode to truncate.

Improvement of the simulation of the water and energy cycle using Multiscale Parameter Regionalization (MPR)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Thober ◽  
Matthias Kelbling ◽  
Florian Pappenberger ◽  
Christel Prudhomme ◽  
Gianpaolo Balsamo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Parameter Space ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Environmental Models ◽  
Energy Cycle

<p>The representation of the water and energy cycle in environmental models is closely linked to the parameter values used in the process parametrizations. The dimension of the parameter space in spatially distributed environmental models corresponds to the number of grid cells multiplied by the number of parameters per grid cell. For large-scale simulations on national and continental scales, the dimensionality of the parameter space is too high for efficient parameter estimation using inverse estimation methods. A regularization of the parameter space is necessary to reduce its dimensionality. The Multiscale Parameter Regionalization (MPR) is one approach to achieve this.</p><p>MPR translates local geophysical properties into model parameters. It consists of two steps: 1) local high-resolution geophysical data sets (e.g. soil maps) are translated into model parameters using a transfer function. 2) the high-resolution model parameters are scaled to the model resolution using suitable upscaling operators (e.g., harmonic mean). The MPR technique was introduced into the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM, Samaniego et al. 2010, Kumar et al. 2013) and it is key factor for its success on transferring parameters across scales and locations.  </p><p>In this study, we apply MPR to vegetation and soil parameters in the land surface model HTESSEL. This model is the land-surface component of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting seasonal forecasting system. About 100 hard-coded parameters have been extracted to allow for a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation.</p><p>We analyze simulated evaporation and runoff fluxes by HTESSEL using parameters estimated by MPR in comparison to a default HTESSEL setup over Europe. The magnitude of simulated long-term fluxes deviates the most (up to 10% and 20% for evapotranspiration and runoff, respectively) in regions with a large subgrid variability in geophysical attributes (e.g., soil texture). The choice of transfer functions and upscaling operators influences the magnitude of these differences and governs model performance assessed after calibration against observations (e.g. streamflow).</p><p><strong>References:</strong></p><p>Samaniego L., et al.  <strong>https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007327</strong></p><p>Kumar, R., et al.  <strong>https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012195</strong></p>

Li-Ion Cell Aging Model Online Parameter Estimation for Improved Prognosis

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Punit Tulpule ◽  
Chin-Yao Chang ◽  
Giorgio Rizzoni
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Lithium Ion ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Cell Aging ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Positive Electrodes ◽  
Aging Model ◽  
Estimation Algorithms

In this paper, a semi-empirical aging model of lithium-ion pouch cells containing blended spinel and layered-oxide positive electrodes is calibrated using aging campaigns. Sensitivity analysis is done on this model to identify the effect of parameter variations on the State of Health (SOH) prediction. The sensitivity analysis shows that the aging model alone is not robust enough to perform long term predictions, hence we propose to use online parameter estimation algorithms to adapt the model parameters. Four different estimation methods are compared using aging campaign. It is demonstrated that the estimation algorithms improve aging model leading to significant improvement in Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction.

scholarly journals Incorporating experimentally derived streamflow contributions into model parameterization to improve discharge prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Hartmann ◽  
Jean-Lionel Payeur-Poirier ◽  
Luisa Hopp
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Riparian Zone ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Experimental Information ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Environmental Tracers ◽  
Hydrograph Separation ◽  
Flow Conditions ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Additional Information

Abstract. Environmental tracers have been used to separate streamflow components for many years. They allow to quantify the contribution of water originating from different sources such as direct runoff from precipitation, subsurface stormflow or groundwater to total streamflow at variable flow conditions. Although previous studies have explored the value of incorporating experimentally derived fractions of event and pre-event water into hydrological models, a thorough analysis of the value of incorporating hydrograph separation derived information on multiple streamflow components at varying flow conditions into model parameter estimation has not yet been performed. This study explores the value of such information to achieve more realistic simulations of catchment discharge. We use a modified version of the process-oriented HBV model that simulates catchment discharge through the interplay of hillslope, riparian zone discharge and groundwater discharge at a small forested catchment which is located in the mountainous north of South Korea subject to a monsoon season between June and August. Applying a Monte Carlo based parameter estimation scheme and the Kling Gupta efficiency (KGE) to compare discharge observations and simulations across two seasons (2013 & 2014), we show that the model is able to provide accurate simulations of catchment discharge (KGE ≥ 0.8) but fails to provide robust predictions and realistic estimates of the contribution of the different streamflow components. Using a simple framework to incorporate experimental information on the contributions of hillslope, riparian zone and groundwater to total discharge during four sub-periods, we show that the precision of simulated streamflow components can be increased while remaining with accurate discharge simulations. We further show that the additional information increases the identifiability of all model parameters and results in more robust predictions. Our study shows how tracer derived information on streamflow contributions can be used to improve the simulation and predictions of streamflow at the catchment scale without adding additional complexity to the model. The complementary use of temporally resolved observations of streamflow components and modelling provides a promising direction to improve discharge prediction by representing model internal dynamics more realistically.

Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Biomedical Systems Using Extended Kalman Filter Algorithm

2017 ◽  
pp. 76-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamalanand Krishnamurthy
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Extended Kalman Filter ◽  
Computational Models ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Three Dimensional Model ◽  
Biomedical Systems ◽  
Estimation Of Model Parameters

Parameter estimation is a central issue in mathematical modelling of biomedical systems and for the development of patient specific models. The technique of estimating parameters helps in obtaining diagnostic information from computational models of biological systems. However, in most of the biomedical systems, the estimation of model parameters is a challenging task due to the nonlinearity of mathematical models. In this chapter, the method of estimation of nonlinear model parameters from measurements of state variables, using the extended Kalman filter, is extensively explained using an example of the three-dimensional model of the HIV/AIDS system.

scholarly journals MODELING AND CHARACTERIZATION OF OSCILLATOR CIRCUITS BY VAN DER POL MODEL USING PARAMETER ESTIMATION

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (05) ◽  
pp. 1250043 ◽  
Author(s):  
IULIA DUMITRESCU ◽  
SMAIL BACHIR ◽  
DAVID CORDEAU ◽  
JEAN-MARIE PAILLOT ◽  
MIHAI IORDACHE
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Optimal Parameter ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Van Der Pol Oscillator ◽  
Space Representation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Identification Algorithm ◽  
Van Der Pol ◽  
Oscillator Circuit

In this paper, we present a new method for the modeling and characterization of oscillator circuit with a Van Der Pol (VDP) model using parameter identification. We also discussed and investigated the problem of estimation in nonlinear system based on time domain data. The approach is based on an appropriate state space representation of Van der Pol oscillator that allows an optimal parameter estimation. Using sampled output voltage signal, model parameters are obtained by an iterative identification algorithm based on Output Error method. Normalization issues are fixed by an appropriate transformation allowing a quickly global minimum search. Finally, the proposed estimation method is tested and validated using simulation data from a 1 GHz oscillator circuit in GaAs technology.

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