Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate
variability and change scenarios using SWAT model
Abstract. Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to exacerbate under climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluates the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitive scenarios to assess the individual effects of variations in CO2 concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %) and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), and considered the predicted climate change scenario using five general circulation models (GCMs) under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 scenario. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014, as a baseline scenario, the predicted water and nitrate budgets under climate variability and change scenarios were analyzed at multiple temporal scales. Compared to the baseline scenario, precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased stream flow and nitrate loads by 50 % and 52 %, respectively, while, temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced stream flow and nitrate loads by 12 % and 13 %, respectively. Under the climate change scenario, annual stream flow and nitrate loads showed an average increase of nearly 40 %, relative to the baseline scenario. Differences in hydrological responses observed from the two watersheds were primarily attributed to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with larger percent croplands indicated increased nitrate yield of 0.52 kg N ha−1 compared to the one with less percent croplands under the climate change scenario, due to increased export of nitrate derived from fertilizer. The watershed dominated by poorly-drained soils showed a lower increase in nitrate yield than one dominated by well-drained soils, due to a high potential of nitrate loss in surface runoff and enhanced denitrification. To mitigate increased nitrate loads potentially caused by climate change, the enhanced implementation of conservation practices would be necessary for this region in the future. These findings assist watershed managers and regulators as they seek to establish effective adaptation strategies to mitigate water quality degradation in this region.