scholarly journals Dealing with uncertainty in the probability of overtopping of a flood mitigation dam

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 2497-2507 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleni Maria Michailidi ◽  
Baldassare Bacchi

Abstract. In recent years, copula multivariate functions were used to model, probabilistically, the most important variables of flood events: discharge peak, flood volume and duration. However, in most of the cases, the sampling uncertainty, from which small-sized samples suffer, is neglected. In this paper, considering a real reservoir controlled by a dam as a case study, we apply a structure-based approach to estimate the probability of reaching specific reservoir levels, taking into account the key components of an event (flood peak, volume, hydrograph shape) and of the reservoir (rating curve, volume–water depth relation). Additionally, we improve information about the peaks from historical data and reports through a Bayesian framework, allowing the incorporation of supplementary knowledge from different sources and its associated error. As it is seen here, the extra information can result in a very different inferred parameter set and consequently this is reflected as a strong variability of the reservoir level, associated with a given return period. Most importantly, the sampling uncertainty is accounted for in both cases (single-site and multi-site with historical information scenarios), and Monte Carlo confidence intervals for the maximum water level are calculated. It is shown that water levels of specific return periods in a lot of cases overlap, thus making risk assessment, without providing confidence intervals, deceiving.

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 ◽  
pp. 06026
Author(s):  
Antje Bornschein

Dam break wave simulation provides data for emergency management. The calculation results should be as accurate as possible. The modeler has to deal with different sources of uncertainty. The paper presents dam break calculation for three different dams in order to assess the uncertainty due to the chosen model (1D or 2D), different terrain models and different Manning's n values. The comparison of the calculation results is focused on the maximum discharge, maximum water level and flood wave arrival time.


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (4A) ◽  
pp. 599-613
Author(s):  
Moammed K. Malik ◽  
Ibtisam R. Karim

The current study is designed to analyze theslope stability of Haditha damwhich is an earth-fill dam constructed on the Euphrates River in the middle-west of Iraq. Finite element modeling was used in the present study to analyze the combined seepage and post-earthquake slope stability of Haditha earth dam. The maximum water level of a steady seepage case was considered to evaluate seepage. - Three different water levels (maximum, normal, and minimum) were applied, and nine different equilibrium slope stability limits were used to analyze the upstream and downstream slopes of the dam with three horizontal maximum accelerations.The input data given to the software are the dam geometry and its material properties with the earthquake records in the year2019.The dam was investigated by considering the water in the reservoir to be at maximum, minimum and normal water levels in its actual design. It was concluded that the dam is on the safe side in terms of stability even though the change in the earthquake's conditions in Iraq.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Dyah Pratiwi Kusumastuti ◽  
Husna Alghoida

Abstract Dams have many benefits such as irrigation, flood prevention, power generation and even tourism, especially in areas where the dam is located. So that the benefits received can last a long time, in the planning, it must be analyzed for stability, seepage discharge that occurs and the safety of the piping. The piping hazard safety figures in this study were calculated using the Harza method for maximum water level conditions, normal water levels, fast receding and empty dams at sta 0 + 150, sta 0 + 200, sta 0 + 250 and sta 0 + 300. Based on the calculation results, it is found that the safety of piping hazards without filters with the grouting method do not meet the requirements safety factor, especially in conditions of maximum water level, normal water level and fast receding. In order for the safety of piping hazard in order to meet the requirements, a filter is applied under the dams. The filter is applied so that the piping hazard safety figure meets the requirements of all water level conditions and all station is 80 cm deep.   Keywords: safety factor, piping, Harza method, filter   ABSTRAK Bendungan memiliki banyak manfaat seperti irigasi, pencegah banjir, pembangkit listrik bahkan pariwisata khususnya pada wilayah dimana bendungan tersebut berada. Agar manfaat yang diterima dapat berlangsung lama maka dalam perencanaannya wajib dianalisis terhadap stabilitas, debit rembesan yang terjadi maupun keamanan dari piping. Angka keamanan bahaya piping pada penelitian ini dihitung dengan menggunakan metode Harza untuk kondisi muka air maksimum, muka air normal, surut cepat dan bendungan kosong di sta 0+150, sta 0+200, sta 0+250 serta sta 0+300. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan didapatkan bahwa angka keamanan bahaya piping tanpa penggunaan filter dengan metode grouting tidak memenuhi persyaratan angka keamanan khususnya pada kondisi muka air maksimum, muka air normal dan surut cepat. Agar angka keamanan bahaya piping memenuhi persyaratan maka diaplikasikan filter dibawah tubuh bendungan. Filter yang diaplikasikan agar angka keamanan bahaya piping memenuhi persyaratan diseluruh kondisi muka air dan seluruh sta adalah dengan kedalaman 80 cm.   Kata kunci: angka keamanan, piping, metode Harza, filter Abstract Dams have many benefits such as irrigation, flood prevention, power generation and even tourism, especially in areas where the dam is located. So that the benefits received can last a long time, in the planning, it must be analyzed for stability, seepage discharge that occurs and the safety of the piping. The piping hazard safety figures in this study were calculated using the Harza method for maximum water level conditions, normal water levels, fast receding and empty dams at sta 0 + 150, sta 0 + 200, sta 0 + 250 and sta 0 + 300. Based on the calculation results, it is found that the safety of piping hazards without filters with the grouting method do not meet the requirements safety factor, especially in conditions of maximum water level, normal water level and fast receding. In order for the safety of piping hazard in order to meet the requirements, a filter is applied under the dams. The filter is applied so that the piping hazard safety figure meets the requirements of all water level conditions and all station is 80 cm deep.   Keywords: safety factor, piping, Harza method, filter   ABSTRAK Bendungan memiliki banyak manfaat seperti irigasi, pencegah banjir, pembangkit listrik bahkan pariwisata khususnya pada wilayah dimana bendungan tersebut berada. Agar manfaat yang diterima dapat berlangsung lama maka dalam perencanaannya wajib dianalisis terhadap stabilitas, debit rembesan yang terjadi maupun keamanan dari piping. Angka keamanan bahaya piping pada penelitian ini dihitung dengan menggunakan metode Harza untuk kondisi muka air maksimum, muka air normal, surut cepat dan bendungan kosong di sta 0+150, sta 0+200, sta 0+250 serta sta 0+300. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan didapatkan bahwa angka keamanan bahaya piping tanpa penggunaan filter dengan metode grouting tidak memenuhi persyaratan angka keamanan khususnya pada kondisi muka air maksimum, muka air normal dan surut cepat. Agar angka keamanan bahaya piping memenuhi persyaratan maka diaplikasikan filter dibawah tubuh bendungan. Filter yang diaplikasikan agar angka keamanan bahaya piping memenuhi persyaratan diseluruh kondisi muka air dan seluruh sta adalah dengan kedalaman 80 cm.   Kata kunci: angka keamanan, piping, metode Harza, filter


1982 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 276-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Beltaos ◽  
B. G. Krishnappan

Accounts by witnesses of spring ice breakup in rivers often mention violent ice runs with extreme water speeds and rapidly rising water levels. Such events are believed to follow the release of major ice jams. To gain preliminary understanding of this problem, an attempt is made to reconstruct a partially documented ice jam release reported recently by others. The equations of the ice–water flow that occurs after the release of an ice jam are formulated. It is shown that the problem may be approximately treated as a one-dimensional, unsteady, water-only flow of total depth identical to that of the ice–water flow, and average velocity. The retarding effect of the frequently encountered intact ice cover below the jam is considered implicitly, that is, by adjusting the friction factor so as to make the predicted and observed downstream stages equal. The effects of jam length are considered next by assuming longer jams of the same maximum water depth. The duration of the surging velocities increases with jam length and so does the peak stage. Less than 2 h after the jam release the surge was arrested and a new jam formed, causing further stage increases. Present capabilities of modelling the reformation process are discussed and the major unknowns identified.


2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 2465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yizhuang Liu ◽  
Shu-Qing Yang ◽  
Changbo Jiang ◽  
Muttucumaru Sivakumar ◽  
Keith Enever ◽  
...  

A large lake plays an important role in mitigating flood disasters in its nearby regions during the flooding period; however, the effect is limited, because most of its storage capacity becomes dead storage prior to the arrival of the flood wave. In the current study, an innovative flood control scheme (IFCS) is applied to Dongting Lake (the second largest freshwater lake in China) to alleviate flood disasters. MIKE 21 FM was used to examine its feasibility to mitigate flood disasters. One of the largest floods in the 20th century, the 1998-type flood, was modelled and the maximum water levels with/without IFCS were compared. The result shows that the effective flood control storage could be at least doubled when compared with the natural condition once IFCS was applied. The peak flood level in the Dongting Lake could be lowered by at least 0.32 m at the Chenglingji station in the same flood passage of Dongting Lake. The case study reveals that, after applying IFCS, the hydraulic gates play a very important role in floodwater regulation and further study should be conducted to find the optimized operation for each gate in the flood control scheme system.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amulya Chevuturi ◽  
Nicholas P. Klingaman ◽  
Steven J. Woolnough ◽  
Conrado M. Rudorff ◽  
Caio A. S. Coelho ◽  
...  

<p>Variations in water levels of the Negro River, that flows through the Port of Manaus, can cause considerable regional environmental and socio-economic losses. It is therefore critical to advance predictions for water levels, especially flood levels, to provide more effective and earlier warnings to safeguard lives and livelihoods. Variations in water levels in free-flowing river systems, like the Negro follow large-scale precipitation anomalies, which offers an opportunity to predict maximum water levels using observed antecedent rainfall. This study aims to improve the performance and extend the lead time of statistical forecasts for annual maximum water level of the Negro River at Manaus, relative to operational forecasts. Multiple linear regression methods are applied to develop forecast models, that can be issued in March, February and January, with the best possible combinations potential predictors: observed antecedent catchment rainfall and water levels, large-scale modes of climate variability and the linear trend in water levels. Our statistical models gain one month of lead time against existing models, but are only moderately better than existing models at similar lead time. Using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal reforecast data with our statistical models, further gains an additional month of lead time of skilful performance. Our models lose performance at longer lead times, as expected. Our forecast models can issue skilful operational forecasts in March or earlier and have been successfully tested for operational forecast of 2020. This method can be applied to develop statistical models for annual maximum water level over other free-flowing rivers in the Amazon basin with intact catchments and historical water level record.</p>


2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 557-596 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. I. Requena ◽  
L. Mediero ◽  
L. Garrote

Abstract. Hydrologic frequency analyses are usually focused on flood peaks. Multivariate analyses on flood variables have not been so exhaustively studied despite the fact that they are required to represent the full hydrograph, which is essential for designing some structures like dams. In this work, a bivariate copula model was used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume. An empirical bivariate return period was defined in terms of acceptable risk to the dam through the maximum water elevation reached during the routing process, in order to perform a risk assessment of dam overtopping. A Monte Carlo procedure was developed to compare the probability of occurrence of a flood with the return period linked to the risk of dam overtopping. The procedure is applied to the case study of the Santillana reservoir in Spain. A set of synthetic peak-volume pairs was generated by the fitted copula and synthetic hydrographs were routed through the reservoir. Different reservoir volumes and spillway lengths were considered. Hydrographs with the same risk were represented by a curve in the peak-volume space. These curves were compared to those linked to the probability of occurrence of a flood event, in order to improve the estimation of the Design Flood Hydrograph.


2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1099-1109 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. C. Niroshinie ◽  
◽  
Yasuo Nihei ◽  
Kazuaki Ohtsuki ◽  
Shoji Okada ◽  
...  

Coupled one and two-dimensional (1D-2D) hydraulic models play a significant role in analyzing flooding problems to find possible solutions as they can reproduce the actual situations relatively accurately. This paper summarizes approaches to flood inundation analysis and mitigation with coupled 1D-2D hydraulic models of a small mountain watershed in Japan. A detailed flood inundation model including the effects of drainages, pumping, inflow from mountain sub-watersheds and flood gates is developed using coupled 1D-2D hydraulic models. The model is applied to the inundation in Kubokawa, a small town in Kochi Prefecture, Japan on August 9-10, 2014. Simulated and observed maximum water levels along the river and maximum inundations in the flood plain are compared and found to be consistent. Causes of the flooding and percentage of contribution are quantitatively identified, and countermeasures to reduce the effects of flooding are proposed.


2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 18-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sándor András Boldogh ◽  
Tamás Visnyovszky ◽  
Zsolt Szegedi ◽  
Béla Habarics ◽  
Róbert Horváth ◽  
...  

Abstract The Corncrake is a threatened umbrella species for wet meadows, which mostly depends on managed grasslands. Therefore, effective conservation requires bird-friendly land management schemes and subsidies. Although the most important populations in Hungary usually breed in protected areas, some of these are regularly flooded, which forces Corncrakes to find breeding sites elsewhere. Such movements from protected/subsidised areas to suboptimal sites have risks for Corncrake populations and their conservation. Here, we describe a large-scale dynamic system of interlinked populations based on data from 4194 Corncrake territories found at four different sites (Aggtelek, Bodrogzug, Szatmár-Bereg and Zemplén regions) across eight years between 1997 and 2006 in NE Hungary (c. 1500 km2). The results showed that the total population fluctuated between 407 and 631 pairs and that the populations were more-or-less stable in the first four years (1997–2000). However, extended floods caused the disappearance of the species from the Bodrogzug region in 2005–2006, while in the other sites, the number of territories increased five-fold (Zemplén), three-fold (Aggtelek) and two-fold (Szatmár-Bereg). The correlation between the number of territories and maximum water level of river Tisza in April-May was negative in the Bodrogzug site and positive in the three other sites, indicating that interlinkages of the populations were associated with water levels. Our data thus support the hypothesis that many of the birds driven out by inundation of floodplain meadows moved to other sites in NE Hungary in flood years. These results suggest that even large, centrally located populations of Corncrake can be greatly exposed to risks of flooding and that it is highly important to maintain suitable alternative breeding sites for the species. The High Natural Value Areas programme may allow administrative and funding support to provide or extend protection and/or subsidies to maintain this large-scale dynamic system. To this end, the area managed in bird-friendly ways and subsidised under agri-environmental schemes was extended by 35,000 hectares in NE Hungary in 2009.


2018 ◽  
Vol 934 (4) ◽  
pp. 46-52
Author(s):  
A.S. Bruskova ◽  
T.I. Levitskaya ◽  
D.M. Haydukova

Flooding is a dangerous phenomenon, causing emergency situations and causing material damage, capable of damaging health, and even death of people. To reduce the risk and economic damage from flooding, it is necessary to forecast flooding areas. An effective method of forecasting emergency situations due to flooding is the method of remote sensing of the Earth with integration into geoinformation systems. With the help of satellite imagery, a model of flooding was determined based on the example of Tavda, the Sverdlovsk Region. Space images are loaded into the geoinformation system and on their basis a series of thematic layers is created, which contains information about the zones of possible flooding at given water level marks. The determination of the area of flooding is based on the calculation of the availability of maximum water levels at hydrological stations. According to the calculated security data, for each hydrological post, flood zones are constructed by interpolation between pre-calculated flood zones of standard security. The results of the work can be used by the Main Directorate of the Ministry for Emergency Situations of Russia for the Sverdlovsk Region.


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