scholarly journals A Bayesian approach to flow record infilling and extension for reservoir design

1999 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 491-503 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Jones ◽  
K. J. Sene
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Sampling Procedure ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Generation Process ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Regional Flow ◽  
Flow Generation ◽  
Reservoir Design ◽  
New Procedures

Abstract. A Bayesian approach is described for dealing with the problem of infilling and generating stochastic flow sequences using rainfall data to guide the flow generation process, and including bounded (censored) observed flow and rainfall data to provide additional information. Solutions are obtained using a Gibbs sampling procedure. Particular problems discussed include developing new procedures for fitting transformations when bounded values are available, coping with additional information in the form of values, or bounds, for totals of flows across several sites, and developing relationships between annual flow and rainfall data. Examples are shown of both infilled values of unknown past river flows, with assessment of uncertainty, and realisations of flows representative of what might occur in the future. Several procedures for validating the model output are described and the central estimates of flows, taken as a surrogate for historical observed flows, are compared with long term regional flow and rainfall data.

scholarly journals The role of spatial variability of soil moisture for modelling surface runoff generation at the small catchment scale

1999 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 505-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bronstert ◽  
A. Bárdossy
Keyword(s):  
Sampling Procedure ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Generation Process ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Small Catchment ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Regional Flow ◽  
Flow Generation

Abstract. A Bayesian approach is described for dealing with the problem of infilling and generating stochastic flow sequences using rainfall data to guide the flow generation process, and including bounded (censored) observed flow and rainfall data to provide additional information. Solutions are obtained using a Gibbs sampling procedure. Particular problems discussed include developing new procedures for fitting transformations when bounded values are available, coping with additional information in the form of values, or bounds, for totals of flows across several sites, and developing relationships between annual flow and rainfall data. Examples are shown of both infilled values of unknown past river flows, with assessment of uncertainty, and realisations of flows representative of what might occur in the future. Several procedures for validating the model output are described and the central estimates of flows, taken as a surrogate for historical observed flows, are compared with long term regional flow and rainfall data.

Repeated Occupational Exposure to Low-level Blast in the Canadian Armed Forces: Effects on Hearing, Balance, and Ataxia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ann Nakashima ◽  
Oshin Vartanian ◽  
Shawn G Rhind ◽  
Kristen King ◽  
Catherine Tenn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hearing Loss ◽  
Occupational Exposure ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Adverse Health Effects ◽  
Blast Overpressure ◽  
Blast Exposure

ABSTRACT Introduction Recently, there has been increasing concern about the adverse health effects of long-term occupational exposure to low-level blast in military personnel. Occupational blast exposure occurs routinely in garrison through use of armaments and controlled blast detonations. In the current study, we focused on a population of breaching instructors and range staff. Breaching is a tactical technique that is used to gain entry into closed spaces, often through the use of explosives. Materials and Methods Initial measurements of blast overpressure collected during breaching courses found that up to 10% of the blasts for range staff and up to 32% of the blasts for instructors exceeded the recommended 3 psi exposure limit. Using a cross-sectional design, we used tests of balance, ataxia, and hearing to compare a sample of breachers (n = 19) to age-and sex-matched military controls (n = 19). Results There were no significant differences between the two groups on the balance and ataxia tests, although the average scores of both groups were lower than would be expected in a normative population. The prevalence of hearing loss was low in the breacher group (4 of 19), and hearing thresholds were not significantly different from the controls. However, the prevalence of self-reported tinnitus was significantly higher in the breacher group (12 of 19) compared with the controls (4 of 19), and all breachers who were identified as having hearing loss also reported tinnitus. Conclusions Our results suggest that basic tests of balance, ataxia, and hearing on their own were not sensitive to the effects of long-term occupational exposure to low-level blast. Some of the blast exposure levels exceeded limits, and there was a significant association of exposure with tinnitus. Future studies should supplement with additional information including exposure history and functional hearing assessments. These findings should be considered in the design of future acute and longitudinal studies of low-level blast exposure.

scholarly journals Systemic Photoprotection in Skin Cancer Prevention: Knowledge among Dermatologists

Biomolecules ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 332
Author(s):  
Luca Fania ◽  
Francesca Sampogna ◽  
Francesco Ricci ◽  
Mariafrancesca Hyeraci ◽  
Andrea Paradisi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Skin Cancer ◽  
Sampling Procedure ◽  
Skin Cancer Prevention ◽  
Snowball Sampling ◽  
Scientific Publications ◽  
Current State ◽  
Skin Cancers ◽  
Knowledge And Attitude ◽  
Nonmelanoma Skin Cancers

Background: Systemic photoprotection (i.e., administration of substances such as nicotinamide, carotenoids, and vitamin D) may be important to reduce photocarcinogenesis or to support long-term protection against UV irradiation. Clinical trials showed that oral nicotinamide is effective in reducing the onset of new nonmelanoma skin cancers (NMSCs), while other oral photoprotectors failed to achieve the reduction of new melanoma or NMSC formation in humans. The aim of this study was to summarize the current state of knowledge of systemic photoprotection and to evaluate the knowledge and attitude of dermatologists regarding these treatments. Methods: The survey was conducted on a sample of dermatologists recruited according to a snowball sampling procedure. The questionnaire consisted of a first part asking for characteristics of the participant and a second part with 12 specific questions on their knowledge about systemic photoprotection, particularly their knowledge of astaxanthin, β-carotene, nicotinamide, and vitamin D3. Results: One hundred eight dermatologists answered the survey. Most of them (85.2%) stated that oral photoprotectors have a role in the prevention of skin cancer, and responses mainly mentioned nicotinamide. More than half of them (54.6%) had prescribed all the considered oral photoprotectors, but the majority of them had prescribed nicotinamide, mainly for 2 to 3 months during summer, almost invariably (n = 106) associated with topical photoprotectors. Most dermatologists (>80%) were aware of scientific publications demonstrating an effect of systemic photoprotectors on NMSC. Conclusions: Most Italian dermatologists have positive views on oral photoprotection in skin cancer and are aware of the demonstrated potential of nicotinamide in the prevention of NMSCs.

scholarly journals The MODIS Global Vegetation Fractional Cover Product 2001–2018: Characteristics of Vegetation Fractional Cover in Grasslands and Savanna Woodlands

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Hill ◽  
Juan P. Guerschman
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Bare Soil ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Fractional Cover ◽  
Grassland Type ◽  
Global Vegetation ◽  
Global Indicator

Vegetation Fractional Cover (VFC) is an important global indicator of land cover change, land use practice and landscape, and ecosystem function. In this study, we present the Global Vegetation Fractional Cover Product (GVFCP) and explore the levels and trends in VFC across World Grassland Type (WGT) Ecoregions considering variation associated with Global Livestock Production Systems (GLPS). Long-term average levels and trends in fractional cover of photosynthetic vegetation (FPV), non-photosynthetic vegetation (FNPV), and bare soil (FBS) are mapped, and variation among GLPS types within WGT Divisions and Ecoregions is explored. Analysis also focused on the savanna-woodland WGT Formations. Many WGT Divisions showed wide variation in long-term average VFC and trends in VFC across GLPS types. Results showed large areas of many ecoregions experiencing significant positive and negative trends in VFC. East Africa, Patagonia, and the Mitchell Grasslands of Australia exhibited large areas of negative trends in FNPV and positive trends FBS. These trends may reflect interactions between extended drought, heavy livestock utilization, expanded agriculture, and other land use changes. Compared to previous studies, explicit measurement of FNPV revealed interesting additional information about vegetation cover and trends in many ecoregions. The Australian and Global products are available via the GEOGLAM RAPP (Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring Rangeland and Pasture Productivity) website, and the scientific community is encouraged to utilize the data and contribute to improved validation.

scholarly journals From social regulation of competition to competition as social regulation: transformations in the socioeconomic governance of the European Union

2017 ◽  
pp. 53-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonios Roumpakis ◽  
Theo Papadopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Relations ◽  
Social Regulation ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Wage Setting ◽  
Regulatory Changes ◽  
European Court ◽  
The Right ◽  
New Procedures ◽  
The Eu

This chapter studies the character of contemporary socioeconomic governance in the EU. It draws on empirical evidence capturing the type and extent of regulatory changes in the fields of industrial relations, corporate governance, and the coordination of macro-economic policy in the EU. The effects of these changes are long term, cumulative, and mutually reinforcing and should be seen as integral elements of a relatively coherent project to establish a form of transnational polity in Europe that privileges competition as its regulatory rationale. Indeed, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) has been institutionally prioritising market freedoms and competition over labour rights, and especially the right to collective action in an emerging transnational regulatory field in the EU. Meanwhile, the new procedures of European macro-economic coordination construe national wage setting, collective bargaining institutions, and, more generally, social policy as adjustment variables serving primarily the purpose of promoting or restoring member states' economic competitiveness.

scholarly journals Virtual Connections: Improving Global Neurosurgery Through Immersive Technologies

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Higginbotham
Keyword(s):  
Geographical Location ◽  
Long Term Outcomes ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Novel Technologies ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Immersive Technologies

The field of neurosurgery has always been propelled by the adoption of novel technologies to improve practice. Although advancements have occurred in the diagnosis, treatment, and long-term outcomes of patients, these have not translated to global patient benefit. Up to five million people each year do not have access to safe and affordable neurosurgical interventions, and those in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are disproportionately affected. Current approaches to increase neurosurgical capacity are unlikely to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals target by 2030, and many of the most successful programs have been disrupted by the travel restrictions of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is therefore a pressing need for creative virtual solutions. An area of growing relevance is the use of immersive technologies: virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR). AR allows additional information to be superimposed onto the surgeon's visual field, thus enhancing intra-operative visualization. This can be used for remote tele-proctoring, whereby an experienced surgeon can virtually assist with a procedure regardless of geographical location. Expert guidance can therefore be given to both neurosurgical trainees and non-neurosurgical practitioners, further facilitating the growing practice of neurosurgical task-shifting in LMICs. VR simulation is another useful tool in remote neurosurgical training, with the potential to reduce the learning curve of complex procedures whilst conserving supplies in low-resource settings. The adoption of immersive technologies into practice is therefore a promising approach for achieving global neurosurgical equity, whilst adapting to the long-term disruptions of the pandemic.

scholarly journals A critical analysis of the management of craniofacial microsomia

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-78
Author(s):  
David John David AC
Keyword(s):  
Distraction Osteogenesis ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Long Term Results ◽  
New Techniques ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Craniofacial Microsomia ◽  
New Procedures

Distraction Osteogenesis was introduced into the management of Craniofacial Microsomia some decades ago. It assumed almost instant popularity without evidence of advantage. Poor long-term results and high rates of relapse prove this technique is unsuitable for all but the most carefully selected patients. While innovation and technological advances are to be celebrated, it is vital that new procedures are rigorously tested against current protocols. It is also imperative, that thorough knowledge of disease pathology and pathogenesis are applied against new procedures. It is the view of the author that many painful, useless operations would be avoided if surgeons better understood these key fundamentals. Furthermore, there must be clear guidelines for the introduction of new techniques and devices, and this must happen independently of manufacturers.

scholarly journals Rainfall trend and variability over Opak River basin, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 1000 (1000) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wakhidatik Nurfaida ◽  
Hendra Ramdhani ◽  
Takenori Shimozono ◽  
Indri Triawati ◽  
Muhammad Sulaiman
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Sen’S Slope Estimator ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Slope Estimator

Rainfall intensity seems to be increasing nowadays due to climate change as presented in many studies of both global and regional scale. Consequently, cities worldwide are now more vulnerable to flooding. In Indonesia, increasing frequency of floods was reported for the past decades by The National Agency for Disaster Countermeasure (BNPB). To understand the rainfall changes, long-term trend evaluation over a specific area is then crucial due to the large variability of spatial and temporal rainfall distribution. This study investigates the homogeneity and trend of rainfall data from 20 stations over the Opak River basin, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. A long-term ground observation rainfall data whose period varies from 1979 to 2019 were analyzed. Non-parametric Mann – Kendall test was applied to assess the trend, while the magnitude was calculated using the Sen’s slope estimator. An increasing annual maximum of daily rainfall intensity was observed at four stations on a 0.95 confidence level based on the Mann – Kendall test, while the Sen’s slope estimator shows a positive trend at almost all stations. The trend of heavy rainfall frequency was also found to be significantly increased, with only one station showed a decreasing trend. Furthermore, this paper also described the spatial and temporal rainfall variability. Positive trend was mostly found during the rainy season, while the negative trend occurred during the dry season. This could pose a challenge for water resource management engineering and design, such as water supply systems or reservoir management. Understanding this phenomena will benefit hydrologists in preparing future water resource engineering and management.

scholarly journals U.K. Rainfall Data: A Long-Term Persistence Approach

2012 ◽  
Vol 51 (10) ◽  
pp. 1904-1913 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis A. Gil-Alana
Keyword(s):  
Strong Dependence ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Modeling Approaches ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The One

AbstractThis paper looks at the analysis of U.K. monthly rainfall data from a long-term persistence viewpoint. Different modeling approaches are considered, taking into account the strong dependence and the seasonality in the data. The results indicate that the most appropriate model is the one that presents cyclical long-run dependence with the order of integration being positive though small, and the cycles having a periodicity of about a year.

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